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Cardiff City Footballer Feared Missing after aircraft disappeared near Channel Island

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Cardiff City Footballer Feared Missing after aircraft disappeared near Channel Island

Old 29th Jan 2019, 13:02
  #821 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Midlifec View Post
Very good reason to believe that the surface de-ice was known to be inop on the subject aircraft.
The above quote is is only supposition, my betting is that the Wing De-ice systems were in working order ( leading edge / stabilator / tailplane ) The propeller has de-ice as well.....now the unknown in all this is: Had the pilot read the POH for the PA46 310 ? ( It is 370 pages )
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 13:02
  #822 (permalink)  
 
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reason for AOC

Originally Posted by Echo Romeo View Post
People just going over the same old ground again and again. Get a grip.
Have to agree with ER . This unfortunate situation is the very reason we have AOC's (To offer protection to passengers) who may well have no idea about non airline flying (or equipment used).
AOC's do not stop accidents, but at least they have an impact on the level of service been offered and reduce the risks.
AOC's are safety related not profit driven, plus are expensive to operate, but they exist to protect travellers from the potential consequences of cost cutting and poor standards.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 13:10
  #823 (permalink)  
 
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Whatever happened to this aircraft, I would suggest happened very quickly and was quite dramatic due to the fact it just "disappeared" in an area of good radar cover at 2300ft altitude, and there was no mayday, pan call or informative communication. IF icing was a factor it's possible he flew into or descended into an area of freezing rain which accumulates nasty clear icing very quickly. An aircraft with that low speed and very limited anti/de-icing capability would be in big trouble. IIRC freezing rain brought down a Citation (Mustang?) on approach into Friedrichshafen a year or two ago.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 14:02
  #824 (permalink)  
 
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The PA46 is prone to icing and has quite a few quirks such as not having an automatic door for the alternate air source. When this ices up the performance drops off and unless you are on the ball monitoring it can go unnoticed. It is also prone to icing up of the static vents and again know where the alternate static source is located and when to activate it requires a through knowledge of the aircraft. I never flew it low level more than short hops between positioning airfields. I generally always flew it high 20-25,000ft as a rule IFR regardless of conditions and always trying to end up on an Instrument approach where possible. As a VFR aircraft low it has very poor visibility low out the front and requires a lot of work to keep a good look out so was mush easier just to go full IFR.

I have seen the static source freeze on it so that the altimeter and VSI are frozen and of course the reaction could be to shove the nose down further rather than CRM a solution and go to alternate static.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 15:07
  #825 (permalink)  
c52
 
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Anything but an expert - can I ask, what does "Disappeared from radar" actually mean? The plane descended from cruising level to surface level in less time than it takes for a radar dish to rotate once?
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 15:12
  #826 (permalink)  
 
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Radar is, essentially, line-of-sight. An aircraft doesn't have necessarily to be at sea level before it's invisible to radar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_horizon
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 15:46
  #827 (permalink)  
 
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So an aircraft should be visible down to sea level around 20 nm from Guernsey's radar head, and around 43.5 nm if at 500' altitude.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 17:03
  #828 (permalink)  
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C52, . what was said was radar contact was lost from the radar display which the controller was looking at when controlling the aircraft.
Many possible reasons for that : you can put any filter on your display being altitude or garbling filters at low level., but that said a normal APP SSR radar , can detect transponder replies quite low over the sea . A primary radar is more likely to have a filter a low altitude to avoid picking up windmills and ships..
I do not think the aircraft "disappeared" from all radars around, and they are quite a few.
It could indeed have picked up ice, stalled and dived down quickly,
The other possibility besides icing is that it could have had a major failure , i.e electric which would explain the sudden stoppage of the transponder and absence of mayday call.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 17:12
  #829 (permalink)  
 
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Assuming we are talking about Jersey Radar (happy to be corrected if not) then I believe it is SSR only. See Replacement of Air Traffic Control Radar

19 August 2016
A 6-month project to remove the old primary radar and replace the secondary radar system along the Island's north coast is due to begin week commencing 22 August 2016. Although both primary and secondary radar systems are currently used by Jersey Airport the reliance on the former has decreased over the years and it also conflicts with the island's 4G mobile phone system. The decision has been taken to remove this primary radar and upgrade the secondary radar.


An aircraft could still be in the Designated Operational Coverage area (“in cover”) and not be ‘seen’ for several reasons. E.g. transponder switched off or unserviceable.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 17:29
  #830 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by clareprop View Post
Perhaps a little harsh on a non-aviator.

However, there is always the chance he may have confused his pilots........
That crossed my mind too!
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 18:01
  #831 (permalink)  
 
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TRUTHSEEKER ...Yes, that's what I said re. glide distance, I estimated glide distance to be about 2 miles for each 1,000 feet of height had, given that there were only two on board ... we agree then.
My point was more to do with this pilot apparently not considering staying over land for as long as possible, thus making the intended channel crossing as short as possible. This wouldn't have taken the plane far off of it's direct route, the route it looks like it took and which led to the plane being over the open sea when whatever problem occurred. It appears that had he done this (and assuming an engine failure was the problem), then he would probably have been able to make a forced landing on the French mainland ... not an easy thing to do at night of course but a far better option than being forced to ditch in the open sea.
If it was some kind of structural failure which occurred then there was nothing that could have been done of course but the chances of that occurring are statistically very small indeed.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 18:36
  #832 (permalink)  
 
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Luc Lion ... I agree with what you say about flying IFR at a sensible height in this situation and as you say, if the de-icing equipment was u/s or the pilot unfamiliar with its use then then it would have been irresponsible of the pilot to go ahead with that IFR flight. It seems he wanted to fly VFR though and it is this which has me make the point on him staying over land for as long as possible ... see my original post ... but even this is only ok for so long ... the min. 60 mile Channel crossing still has to be made and it seems daft to plan to make that crossing at 2000 feet ... or even 5000 feet, in a single engined aircraft.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 19:06
  #833 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by keni010 View Post
My point was more to do with this pilot apparently not considering staying over land for as long as possible, thus making the intended channel crossing as short as possible. This wouldn't have taken the plane far off of it's direct route, the route it looks like it took and which led to the plane being over the open sea when whatever problem occurred. It appears that had he done this (and assuming an engine failure was the problem), then he would probably have been able to make a forced landing on the French mainland ... not an easy thing to do at night of course but a far better option than being forced to ditch in the open sea.
If it was some kind of structural failure which occurred then there was nothing that could have been done of course but the chances of that occurring are statistically very small indeed.
At this point it would seem that no one (outside of investigators & ATC) has any idea what the actual routing was? Mention's of Burhou Island & Casquets have been in some reports so on that basis I doubt it was just a 'point and go' flightplan. My guess is the BRILL waypoint / Casquets VRP was on the Flightplan ( depending on the STATUS of the Flightplan? ).
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 19:32
  #834 (permalink)  
 
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ATC Watcher .... There seem to be many possibilities for this tragedy and the fact that no Mayday call was made (?) is significant. One possibility could be that the pilot had a massive heart attack for example ... this would certainly explain the absence of a Mayday call. But the icing which you mention as a possibility seems very unlikely to me. If the aircraft had been at 5000 feet and then descended to around 2,300 feet as reported, and I assume it was travelling at cruise speed, is it likely that icing would have caused a stall? Yes, had he been at low airspeed, for example on an approach, I could see that as a possibility but for an aircraft to stall due to ice build up, at a cruising speed of around 170 knots+ at that height ... I doubt that ... but then I'm no expert. A massive build up of ice could cause the stall you refer to but is this massive build up likely in that location at that time and at that height?
I have no idea what the weather reports said for that time, have you read anything on this matter?
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 19:37
  #835 (permalink)  
 
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my bet , Its spacial disorientation . PPL no instrument rating , night , cloud , no visual horizon . A very sad and avoidable tragedy .
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 20:00
  #836 (permalink)  
 
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Smile

Originally Posted by mynameisbrian View Post
....are the words of a man who has never met Willie Mckay.

I'm a chartered accountant and a PPL - I was asked to work for him (in my professional capacity) and refused. He's never asked me to work for him in my other capacity
Rather close to the knucle I`d have thought, particularly given it is coming from a chartered accountant. Must remember this is a public forum and one`s got to know a willie from a winkle for the sake of the Life of Brian. One of my favourites is the chartered accountant lion tamer wannabe sketch.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 20:06
  #837 (permalink)  
 
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TRUTHSEEKER ... You are right in saying that the exact route of the aircraft hasn't yet been established. I have assumed and perhaps wrongly, that it flew from Nantes to the reported point of its loss in a straight line, as if we extend that line it appears that it lines up perfectly with Cardiff in Wales, his destination of course.
I wasn't suggesting that there was the possibility that the aircraft had made it to land, it seems that the plane went into the sea to the west of Alderney ... I said that had the pilot chosen to stay over land for as long as possible instead of possibly making a direct flight to Cardiff and which took him over the sea for much of it, then given where the plane was reported to be when contact was lost, they would have found themselves over land or at least within gliding distance of it and capable of making a forced landing in France.
To be clear, had the pilot flown almost directly north from Nantes he'd have been at approximately the same latitude as that indicated by reports of where the plane was 'lost', to the west of Alderney, and still over land. As I've said, this would also have given him the shortest possible Channel crossing, i.e. around 60 miles, changing his heading for Portland in Dorset once he'd started his flight over the Channel.

Last edited by keni010; 29th Jan 2019 at 22:11.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 20:07
  #838 (permalink)  
 
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Have the timelines become public knowledge of exactly what time Emiliano Sala was sending the whatsapp message where the message included the aircraft was shaking?
Has anyone mentioned whether they know whether Emiliano Sala took the Co-pilot seat or whether he was sitting in the club seating area?

Has Dave Henderson reappeared yet? his insight into the movements of N264DB might hold the key to a lot of unanswered questions.
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Old 29th Jan 2019, 20:53
  #839 (permalink)  
 
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keni010,
Taking the straight line ( as near as dammit ) highlights that 2 sectors of notable water crossing of 52nm & 74nm would be planned.

I have to say that up until now I wouldn't have given a second thought about doing a straightline journey between Nantes and Cardiff, I would have used the 89nm initial sector to get a bit of altitude though, however I have seen VFR pilots who would stay VFR if the cloudbase was 5000ft or less as long as the MSA was below the base of the cloud.

The big question is : " Would you think it is safer for a VFR pilot to go up into IMC than try to stay VFR below the crud? This again is a supposition because it is unknown whether Dave Ibbotson has an IMC or Instrument Rating?

There are so many unanswered questions that are being answered by differing scenario's that it might be better if we all now wait for the Authorities findings & reports to be published.

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Old 29th Jan 2019, 20:55
  #840 (permalink)  
 
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On an AOC trip today an operator's pilots were asked, by the passengers, "in the light of recent events", to show their licenses !!!!
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