keni010,
Taking the straight line ( as near as dammit ) highlights that 2 sectors of notable water crossing of 52nm & 74nm would be planned.
I have to say that up until now I wouldn't have given a second thought about doing a straightline journey between Nantes and Cardiff, I would have used the 89nm initial sector to get a bit of altitude though, however I have seen VFR pilots who would stay VFR if the cloudbase was 5000ft or less as long as the MSA was below the base of the cloud.
The big question is : " Would you think it is safer for a VFR pilot to go up into IMC than try to stay VFR below the crud? This again is a supposition because it is unknown whether Dave Ibbotson has an IMC or Instrument Rating?
There are so many unanswered questions that are being answered by differing scenario's that it might be better if we all now wait for the Authorities findings & reports to be published.