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Old 21st Jul 2014, 08:44   #601 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
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As a buyer of Aviation Hull & Liability insurance, Underwriters rarely if ever classify overflight as "War Zones"

The usual rules are if you're flying into a war zone (or what may be considered a former war zone), that is material and depending upon where it is there will be an additional charge. There's no additional charge or restriction to fly into Israel at the moment.

For overflight, so long as the commercial airlanes are open and in using them you're not in contravention of any EU or UN sanctions, there has historcially been no consideration by Underwriters. That may of course have changed as of last Thursday (but we have not been asked any questions about the routes our airlines operate)
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 08:58   #602 (permalink)
 
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Breaking News

Heavy gun fire at train station where bodies are stored.

One person dead and buildings are on fire.

Reports of Ukraine tanks moving in.

Journos detained and people are advised to stay indoors.

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...-1226996517311
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 09:00   #603 (permalink)
 
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Well let me assure you it does not suit Australia. With 38 dead, and so far not respect shown, indeed indifference to the distressing scenes, this country is far from amused. The Ukraine has requested we send Crash Investigators, they are either innocent, or sure most of the parts needed to make a judgement are now on someone's mantel piece. We would like our dead back, and we would like the perpetrators brought to justice. And it is unlikely we will give up until we get both. We are a small country but a determined one. Putin is going to find us very irritating.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 09:17   #604 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
-if these are parts of Boeing 777
The first picture is a piece of fuselage crown skin between the cockpit and the first door. The others are not as easily identified.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 09:26   #605 (permalink)
 
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@cwatters
Quote:
They tried. The OSCE initially sent a team of 80 people with transport. Only four people were allowed access, only on foot and only for one hour.
Problem is, this cannot be confirmed at all from horse's mouth. See OSCE website:

Ukraine, a developing story | OSCE

I could have missed something, but it appears that members of Special Monitoring Mission for Ukraine (that was already there prior to the crash - so they are not crash investigators who know what they are doing or have any equipment) went to the scenes and initially were not allowed to walk around all of the debris field. Then the media, in their usual manner, "improved" upon the story, one copying from another and spicing it up to arrive all sorts of "outrageous" stories. What is your source for OSCE team of 80 people with transport? What was the transport?

OSCE latest news release on the subject is a call for, well "doing something":

Quote:
In the Declaration, the Permanent Council also supports calls for an open, transparent and independent international investigation, in co-ordination with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), including with participation of technical and forensic experts from the Ukrainian, Malaysian, and Dutch governments as well as other technical and forensic experts and relevant regional bodies.
Meanwhile, Putin in his speech calls for a real international investigative team on the site, not some unequipped half-assed observers. Again, it probably is also BS, but it is interesting to compare the BS from both sides.

You would think that internet would have prevented from playing the old propaganda spice-up news stories games.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 09:34   #606 (permalink)

 
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Quote:
Quote:
-if these are parts of Boeing 777
The first picture is a piece of fuselage crown skin between the cockpit and the first door. The others are not as easily identified.
Volume,
Surely they are all of the same part, but it has been turned over in each photograph.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 09:35   #607 (permalink)
 
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I notice that in the media there's a constant reiteration of the fact that the use of the Buk missile system (about which I know nothing more than I read on a daily basis here and elsewhere) would require expert assistance from specialists in, or from, the Russian military. This is constantly quoted as undeniable evidence of direct Russian complicity in the act itself. Their ongoing supervision of the insurgency is a given whereas their direct participation is yet to be conclusively demonstrated.

As has been argued previously in this thread there are certain to be many people in Ukraine, especially the eastern Russian speaking region, who were or are current or former members of the Soviet, Russian or Ukrainian military. Amongst whom there are sure to be people trained in the use of this system.

Now I believe, as probably do the majority of spectators to this tragedy, that the evidence of culpability emerged very rapidly during the first few hours after the event, well before the various "interested parties" were able to start manipulating the news in order to serve their various agendas. So I find it very odd that all the politicos from the "victim" countries plus the USA keep insisting that the mere fact of the Buk system's use is de facto evidence of direct Russian participation in the missile's use. This is perfectly possible, quite obviously, but it seems to me to be very shaky as "evidence" and I'm puzzled as to why it's become so prominent.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 09:53   #608 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orbitjet
Breaking News

Heavy gun fire at train station where bodies are stored.

One person dead and buildings are on fire.

Reports of Ukraine tanks moving in.

Journos detained and people are advised to stay indoors.

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...-1226996517311
This is REALLY, REALLY bad news. The broader context is that Ukrainian govermental forces seem to have started an offensive on Donetsk.

I guess from a military strategy standpoint in make perfect sense to use the window of confusion, but it would be really bad news for the investigation.

Anyone with a rough map of Donetsk vs the crash site?
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 09:56   #609 (permalink)
 
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Found it: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...mh17.html?_r=0
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 10:11   #610 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Breaking News

Heavy gun fire at train station where bodies are stored.

One person dead and buildings are on fire.

Reports of Ukraine tanks moving in.

Journos detained and people are advised to stay indoors.
Read your link and then post.

Heavy gun fire at train station , yes, but in Donetsk, not where the bodies are...

Also fighting and shelling in Donetsk, not at the crash site.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 10:12   #611 (permalink)
 
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This is an interesting article by David Cenciotti. He is a journalist with good knowledge on military aviation.

According to an authoritative source, two Su-27 Flankers escorted the Malaysian Boeing 777 minutes before it was hit by one or more missiles.
The Aviationist » ?All flights, including Malaysian B777, were being escorted by Ukrainian Su-27 Flanker jets over Eastern Ukraine?

A quote:
Quote:
In other words: since the Russian interceptors had downed a Su-25 on the previous days, the Ukrainian escorted all military and civil flights over eastern Ukraine on Jul. 17. Including MH17.
Anyone who flew in this area ever noticed being escorted?
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 10:37   #612 (permalink)
 
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Reading the Dodger-16 post above I can understand his reasoning but if we always stand back from world events and shrug our shoulders then we allow people to freely get away with unsocial activities.

Yes we should also question the death roll in the Middle East etc. but this is a forum of people with an interest in flying so it is obvious our chatter should be around flight related subjects.

There is one factor about flying incidents in the 'we could have been there' attitude which doesn't apply to disasters across the world happening to 'other people' - this might be a poor reflection on us but it is a fact.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 11:26   #613 (permalink)
 
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What Did US Spy Satellites See in Ukraine?

Quote:
U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms.
Quote:
CIA analysts were still not ruling out the possibility that the troops were actually eastern Ukrainian rebels in similar uniforms but the initial assessment was that the troops were Ukrainian soldiers. There also was the suggestion that the soldiers involved were undisciplined and possibly drunk, since the imagery showed what looked like beer bottles scattered around the site, the source said.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 11:38   #614 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maliyahsdad2 View Post
Volume,
Surely they are all of the same part, but it has been turned over in each photograph.

the three links are certainly all the same part, but they are not the same as the main image.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 12:15   #615 (permalink)
 
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For those interested, detailed description of BUK SAM Systems and the corresponding A-A missiles.
9K37/9K37M1/9K317 Buk M1/M2 / SA-11/17 Gadfly/Grizzly / C????????? ???????? ???????? ???????? 9?37/9?317 ??? ?/?1/?2

However, some discussions are misleading, assuming that a whole anti-aircraft complex has been involved in MH017 shot-down together with a complicated chain of command. In it's logic any single isolated unit (TELAR - launcher and radar) is capable of acquiring, targeting and engaging targets individually.
Individual units (erector/launcher) may be fitted with own radars, but IMO that's not mandatory for a successful launch against a big surface rectilinear-track and constant relatively low speed target. The missile carrier is equipped also with an IR seeker and an electro-optical sighting system by which means the crew may initiate a launch without radar aid - the so-called SACLOS logic (semi-automatic command to line-of-sight). By those optical means, as well, in case of radar jam the crew can track the target and up-link corrections to the missile through radio-command. On top, both SA 11/17 are equipped with onboard radars (monopulse semiactive or active - the newest type - radar homing seeker). It's not clear they are 'fire-and-forget' - capable missiles (like the ex-Soviet 'cousin' SA-19) but it's not unusual for such equipment once airborne to seek, lock-on and track a target on its own.
Adding that the shot-down occurred in daylight and good visibility is plausible that the launch was initiated in a rush, at sight, with no proper preparation and id.

Last edited by xcris; 21st Jul 2014 at 12:33.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 12:47   #616 (permalink)
 
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A thing easy to have in hand (as they are in the ukrainian official hands) for the international investigators are the ATC records (conversations and radar records)
That's the first thing that investigators examine in a crash case ... long befrore examining the black boxes
What happend with this crash?
Not a word of those evidences !
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 12:59   #617 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
This is REALLY, REALLY bad news. The broader context is that Ukrainian govermental forces seem to have started an offensive on Donetsk.
They have been progressively taking back the region, bit by bit. That is why they were flying transports -- to supply their isolated pockets of regained territories. It was those transports which became separatist targets, and for which MH17 was mis-identified.

Russia cannot openly help the rebels at this point, so it may be all over fairly soon.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 13:00   #618 (permalink)
 
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I say again, there are no Spanish ATCO working in Ukraine. and can't be at all. theory about escorting by fighters is also stupid. Radar and voice recordings from ATC won't help for investigation. MH17 disappeared from screen during frequency change to Rostov's sector. other traffic flying behind saw nothing (both TCAS and visually).
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 13:10   #619 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
What exactly were they targeting?
I think your error is to assume they were actually "targeting" anything. I'd suggest they were the same sort of untrained, undisciplined thugs who are to be seen spraying the countryside randomly with fire from their AK47s in "celebration" in third world conflicts everywhere.

New expensive toy supplied by Uncle Vlad. Minimal training, no discipline and no actual understanding of the world outside their immediate brain-washed surroundings. I doubt they were educated enough to realise that international flights take place over the little bit of disputed territory they call home. In their mind, they are fighting a "war" against a government that has aircraft. They don't have aircraft, therefore anything flying above them must be the enemy.

In the final analysis, the ultimate responsibility is with those that gave them these toys and encouraged them to use them. Unfortunately it is the way of the world that they are never held accountable.
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Old 21st Jul 2014, 13:20   #620 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Propduffer View Post
IFF was created for military usage and when civilians use it's function they do it 180 degrees opposite from the way a military would use it.

Since a military can't get the enemy to squawk an identifying code they have their 'friendly" A/C squawk a unique code.

Thus military air defense ignores all codes except the one they are looking for, and they wouldn't give a hoot if a target is squawking the same code used by airliners.
Some of us used to call this doctrine "squawk or die" but the squawk in question was Mode IV.
I am sure most people can understand
  1. Why civ airliners are not going to be equipped with Mode IV.
  2. How an open IFF squawk can be spoofed.
This means that civ airliners flying near dangerous areas require procedural means of airspace management to avoid danger. The Malaysian flight, and the others who were flying through that airspace volume, assessed a low but not zero risk, I would guess. Well, the "not zero" risk paid off, as they say in Vegas.

Lord, please don't make me flash back to real world airspace volume management in real life ... some of my worst headaches came from that.
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