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War with Russia next?

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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 13:07
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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Russia And China 'In Agreement' Over Ukraine
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 13:21
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Cant see anything happening but words, and in one sense thats fine by me. Call it appeasement, call it what you like really, but they did nowt while we bombed Libya/Iraq and we'll do nowt here and watch the country partition. Who knows, maybe the Crimean region wants that anyway.
We're all so much up each other backsides as regards trade and economy these days, that Mutually Assured Destruction has nothing to do with Nuclear Weapons!
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 13:30
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Cameron styles himself as a Chief Executive. From the top down, our 'managers' are more suited these days to tweeting moral insights on DJs and comedians who take part in dodgy tax schemes.. not taking on foreign powers who can fight back. In itself, fine.. I have little faith in most of them. But a little humility at home following their international exposure as nothing more than corporate blowhards wouldn't now go amiss.

Might this take the Horn of Africa out of the cross hairs though?

Fracking - agreed too.
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 13:36
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Given the unstable situation in Ukraine, I can well understand Putin's desire to secure Russia's bases and interests in the Crimea. It seems unlikely that Ukraine can continue to exist in its current form given the strength of feeling on opposing sides. It might not be such a bad outcome for the country to spilt with a portion becoming a region of Russia and the remainder becoming a pro-western state. I can't imagine that the West would benefit in any way from intervening to prevent an area with a Russian majority being freed from Russian "protection". Not say that the West will not use the situation to its "advantage" to isolate Russia further.
Don't get me wrong, Putin is a nasty piece of work and I hope he gets him comeuppance but in this occasion he's not doing anything any other leader wouldn't do in the same situation...and I think he'll have more success than, say, a couple of western powers trying to secure Suez!!
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 13:45
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Given the unstable situation in Ukraine, I can well understand Putin's desire
to secure Russia's bases and interests in the Crimea.
The instability in Ukraine is now directly linked to Putin's adventure in Crimea. I'm reminded of a documentary I watched recently on Afghanistan, where a squaddie who's job it was to patrol a stretch of road said: "We patrol this road to prevent the Taliban from blowing it up, but the only reason they blow it up is because we are patrolling it." Classic 'chicken and egg'.


...and I think he'll have more success than, say, a couple of western powers
trying to secure Suez!!
It was 3 western powers - UK, France, and Israel. And, in fact, militarily they succeeded in securing the Suez but were forced to back down under immense political and economic pressure from the US. A lesson for Crimea certainly, but probably not in the manner you were thinking kintyred.
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 14:12
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Well done to Russia and Putin. Putin is sticking up for the other side in this Ukrainian situation, against the illegal puppets in Kiev. Well done to him.
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 14:44
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So Putin is to be applauded for fighting 'illegal puppets' by supporting his own illegal puppets?

Okaaayyy...

Anyhoo, in other news, France has been quick to act.

France Surrenders to Russia ? Hit the Woodline
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 14:59
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Actually Melmothw, the Suez situation was exactly what I was thinking about....except that in this case I don't think that American pressure will have any any effect.
In reply to your comment about the Taliban, this situation is very different in that elements of the Ukranian Armed Forces would be a significant threat the Russian military who were already there if they were not reinforced by Putin....in other words, there was already a target to be attacked.
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 15:08
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Not looking good.........

BBC News - Russia demands surrender of Ukraine's Crimea forces
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 15:36
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Blimey. Pretending this is peacekeeping or securing the naval base is wearing a bit thin now. This is a good old fashioned invasion and annexation of sovereign territory by military force.

So if we look the other way, we give Putin a clear signal that he can claw back the old soviet republics as he sees fit and use force with impunity. With a macho chest-beater at the helm who harks back to the old days of the soviet empire where will that end?

Alternatively the international community gets involved and we have a world war 3 kick-off scenario. This is turning ugly quickly.
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 16:45
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Switching Sides: Ukraine's Air Force brigade, Navy chief pledge allegiance to Crimea - YouTube
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 19:04
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It's just not that simple, Torque. Many of those you are describing as invaders feel they belong there. They have lived and grown up there, and have no other home if they were to be ethnicly cleansed by a mob. Why should they just abandon their homes because it suits some folk who live thousands of miles away?
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 19:19
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The base for the Black Sea Fleet is fundamental for Putin's security of his southern flank, and potential control of Suez and the generality of Arabia and NATO's southern flank. I don't think we have a Mediterranean Fleet any more, but there is a US one.

Let's not forget the Russian phobia about being surrounded.
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 19:47
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Good luck to Mr Putin. A real leader putting his country first.
The very sight and sound of western "leaders" any of them, makes me want to vomit.
Mr Putin will be pissing himself laughing at "threats" from an utter non-entity like "call me Dave". It's like Quintin Crisp threatening John Wayne.
(any country that can produce a beast like the mighty Mig-25 Foxbat, can't be all bad)
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 19:54
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Oh dear...


UK seeking to ensure Russia sanctions do not harm City of London | World news | theguardian.com

What a farce we have become
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 19:58
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Ah yes, the Black Sea Fleet threatening the Mediterranean.



One, tiny little problem - the Bophorus and Turkish control therein.
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 20:30
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The West will need to act

Of course, the West will need to be seen to be standing up to the Russkies, and standing up hard to them. Why? Cos otherwise what signal does it send to others who may wish to do a bit of military tourism? And what about those countries with whom we have Defence Treaties and Security Treaties with (think South East Asia) - what value will their bits of paper be if we don't support Ukraine, and show that we are willing to enforce respect for their territorial integrity.

This is a defining moment for the West - shame it had to be against a competent and unpredictable foe!

Personally I think that the West will come down hard with every instrument short of a military response.
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 21:08
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Everybody here is assumming Ukranian armed forces are loyal ... they probably are of course, question is to whom.

My guess is that it isn't to the latest Billionaires in office claiming they interested in democracy.
Not sure who said this, but it's a good point and doubtless one that Mr Putin and his planners have looked into in terms of sizing up a potential opposing military force.
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 22:04
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Well done to Russia and Putin. Putin is sticking up for the other side in this Ukrainian situation, against the illegal puppets in Kiev. Well done to him.
The spirit of Reagan indeed seems to live on.
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Old 3rd Mar 2014, 22:28
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Lawmaker: Yanukovych asks Russian parliament to help Crimea
The Russian military is there with the approval of the legitimate Ukrainian President.
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