New Thames Airport for London

[jabird]

Using Japanese maths:

KIX took 7 years to build, initially for one terminal and one runway, don't have history, but current throughput is 13.5m, clearly below terminal capacity. We're in same ballpark as BHX. Original cost $20bn - runway 2 since added.

BI is at least 4x this in terms of terminal size + 4 runways. However, KIX went first, and was probably more of an engineering challenge compared to a partially reclaimed / island / estuary location. However, ultimate objective (claimed) is still 10x current KIX throughput. So when it comes to cost, can this really get done for less than $40bn / £25bn (2x KIX?).

Now we haven't built any mega airports lately, but we are proposing to build approx 170k of high speed railway, to be ready by 2026. This still has to go through parliament, then a detailed design process. Say Liz signs it off in 2014, and we start building in 2016 + two years (yes two years) of testing at the other end.

So still 8 years. Again, just as they later pioneered offshore airports, the Japanese pioneered high speed trains, long before we had sophisticated CAD modelling, not to mention more powerful machinery. The Tokaido Shinkansen, opened in 1964, took just 5 years, but at 515k is around 3x longer than HS2.

So even 60 years before HS2 gets opened, the Japanese were building 103km / year compared to our proposed 21k / year - so 5x as fast.

By that logic, Boris Island could take 7 (KIX) x 5 (x slower) x 4x (as large) = 140 years.

I hope it is a little bit quicker than that!

[Dannyboy39]

140 years will probably be the length of the public enquiry!

Edit: Just a quick question - I posted a message on another thread, but didn't come up because of moderation?

[silverstrata]

Zooker.

There is much spare capacity at EGCC. A 3000m runway is standing idle for most of the day at present.
No-one from the north of England/Scotland wants to route via London.

Sorry, Zooker, but you are behind the drag-curve on this one.

MAN has very limited routes, and so if you want to go anywhere unusual or remote you MUST interline though an international hub somewhere - be that LHR, AMS, CDG or, indeed, some American hub.

But the trouble with UK hubs, is that they are all hopeless, and as international hubs go MAN is probably the worst of all. You can go to the US and to Pakistan, but thats about it.

Face facts, the UK needs a decent world hub with a multitude of destinations, and splitting that hub between LHR, MAN and BHX makes things WORSE, not better. There is no point flying from Knock or Cork to MAN, if the international leg of your journey is from LHR.

Jabird

Oh please! Can we focus on the day to day passenger experience, not some extreme case which is an operational matter anyway, nothing to do with the regular functionality of the airport.

Sorry, that has been my everyday experience of LHR, I have never had a simple flight through that accursed airport. Every visit has been an ordeal, which is why I avoid thebplace like the plague.

And my crazy transit experience is very real and pertinent. How many international hubs to NOT have an internal train system, to get from terminal to terminal? How many airports force you to go landside, to get from terminal to terminal, via the local tube system? The whole place is an embarrasement.

Mr Mac.

My own view re Borris Island is build it by all means another London centric project like the Channel Tunnel.

Unfortunately, this is typical of misplaced northern envy (and I used to be a northerner). Where did you think they would build the Channel Tunnel from, Newcastle?? The clue to the most logical location, lies in the name....


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[Navpi]

and as international hubs go MAN is probably the worst of all. You can go to the US and to Pakistan, but thats about it.

Very true, oh and multiple daily flights to Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Istanbul, TelAviv, Singapore, Dhaka......

All MAJOR European Capitals every hour or so (....are these International ?) even Keflavik !

plus.......3/4 weekly/daily

Alicante, Barcelona , Bezier, Biarritz , Budapest, Bremen, Faro, Ibiza, Katowice, Malaga, Memmingen, Milan, Murcia, Oslo, Palma, Paris, Reus, Rome, Rzeszow , Tallinn , Tours, Tenerife, Valencia .

60 + destinations.

And for good measure THEE best connected Domestic airport in the UK with hourly flights from Aberdeen to Southampton and all points in-between.

Suprised at you Strata, "normally balanced and factual", I blame the sherry

....I have excluded cargo to avoid further embarrasment !

[Skipness One Echo]

THEE best connected Domestic airport in the UK with hourly flights from Aberdeen to Southampton and all points in-between.

Um....that's Glasgow.

[jabird]

Alicante, Barcelona , Bezier, Biarritz , Budapest, Bremen, Faro, Ibiza, Katowice, Malaga, Memmingen, Milan, Murcia, Oslo, Palma, Paris, Reus, Rome, Rzeszow , Tallinn , Tours, Tenerife, Valencia .

Hang on a minute - you are confusing low cost base with transfer hub - i.e. a through ticket and the ability to through-check baggage (see thread - what makes a hub).

A twice weekly Ryanair hop to Bezier does not count at all.

Most of the other routes are feeding somebody else's hub. What do you have left - predominantly leisure routes from Virgin and a bit of a hybrid operation from Flybe.

Manchester airport punches well above its weight compared to what we have here - but interline hub it is not!

[jabird]

Sorry, that has been my everyday experience of LHR, I have never had a simple flight through that accursed airport.

Well maybe, but a simple BA-BA transfer should keep you in T5 (bar a few exceptions), and there you have your choo-choo train too.

Star are being brought together in the new T2 - now what does that tell you? Ongoing investment programme.

I know you want to throw all this away and start again, but unless you can make the figures add up, customer service is irrelevant as there won't be any airport to serve them.

[PAXboy]

Mr Mac you are soooo right! That is a very neat setting out of the British Disease of capital project development. The MoD still haven't learnt how to do this. (Do you remember when it was discovered that they paid extra to have their own recipe of Baked Beans made and canned?)

Everyone knows that we have enough London airports and in pretty good places. What took ages to develop was good rail links to them and, for EGLL, there is still no mainline station or any realistic prospect of one!

For better or for worse, we allow lots of people to protest and, consequently, our infrastructure is decades behind others. The examples given of the Shinkansen are useful and there are many others. Lastly, if this project gets the go ahead, it will be as a private company and the chances of that going bust are very, very high.

[Mr Mac]

Silverstrat
Not northern envy re tunnel just an observation - London aqaintances us it often to visit houses in northern France as well as for business. However not really practical from North of the Trent. When the project was being floated there was mention of trains from Manchester and Leeds to Paris and sleepers from Scotland to Europe - even built the carriages I am informed - where are they now - Canada !. Transport infrastructure should be based on plans for the whole country not just the SE. I work extensivly in the SE and even have a house there but prefer to live in the North (even lived near you in San Diego for a while) so it is not a northern bias on my part just an observation. If you live outside the SE of the UK the infrastructure is know where near as good, limited light rail systems and limited rail routes and services and M62 corridor can match M25 for traffic and gets worse weather ! . Manchester will never be a HUB but is a large regional airport with reasonable connections which allow travel to most parts of the world with 1nr change. I just chose to make that change some where other than LHR if I am flying from the north. I do use LHR when in the south during the week but not that often.

[Mr Mac]

Pax Boy
Do not even mention MOD procurment projects as they have lives and budget control or lack of which to me are unbelivable. Have only done 3nr MOD jobs two for the Army and one Navy all over budget, over specified for what was required, and ran over time. Inveterate tinkerers at the MOD / Services IMHO. I also remember the beans scandal which is funny but not when you are a tax payer in the UK !.

[silverstrata]

Jabird

Well maybe, but a simple BA-BA transfer should keep you in T5 (bar a few exceptions), and there you have your choo-choo train too.

Never used T5, I must admit. But with BA's limited domestic network from LHR, I bet I would end up comming in on BMI or whatever, and then getting stuck in T1 again, with my BA flight imminently departing from T5.

Sorry, no thanks, I would rather take my chances in some other European hub.


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[PAXboy]

Mr Mac, working for MoD? My condolences! I worked in I.T. for 27 years, mainly UK companies but also international and internationally. Doing a project in Hong Kong (mid-90s) was bliss. The client told me what they wanted, listened and got the building works done as requested on time. They didn't change their mind and when a really tough deceision had to be made - he made it on the spot and carried it through.

[jabird]

with BA's limited domestic network from LHR, I bet I would end up comming in on BMI or whatever, and then getting stuck in T1 again,

Well BMI's is pretty poor too - LBA. MME, INV all gone, no more competition on GLA. So the only place they can feed from that BA don't is BHD.

Now here's the reality - you can keep on hating LHR, that's fine, you aren't alone. Others tolerated, and some even love it. For now though, it is still Europe's busiest airport, and the others are "catching up" as much due to having loco flights as due to expanding their status as a hub.

Some people hate CDG - see above.
Some hate AMS - long walks.
Some hate MAD (maybe it just drives them mad).
Some hate FRA - and so on.

Why? Is there some serious design flaw with all of these airports that Foster's recycled HKG design could somehow miraculously solve?

No - the biggest reasons why people hate these airports relate to the fact that they are too big, too crowded, too impersonal and so on.

You still haven't given me your PSC figure - and like Paxman I'll keep asking. I think we're upto about #12 now, so to beat Michael Howard you've got about 5 to go.

Until then, we can only assume that charges will be high, and the overcrowding won't be solved because designers will be under pressure to get as many stands in as possible in the constrained space between the runway pairs, as this reclaimed land will be at a premium.

[Skipness One Echo]

One thing that I think a lot of you are missing is that LHR has come on leaps and bounds recently. Now it's not in the right place and the flight paths are far from ideal if you are lucky enought to live in Hounslow or Slough.....

Anyway my point is that the passenger experience is improving as T5 has been a game changer. It has allowed space to breathe in a refurbished (and occasionally QUIET) T4 where only the arrivals is a let down. Departures is very nice and modern indeed. T2 is gone and being replaced by a new T2 for STAR, up to T5 standards (but with gaterooms, I hate gaterooms.....)
That leaves T3 which is going to be next on the list. I know a lot of you hated LHR in the past but the key pain points, the BA T1 / T4 shuffle are no longer in play. The underground car park check in that was T2 is dust and rubble and the crowded mayhem that was T1 in BA days is now a more relaxed STAR ALLIANCE environment.
So by all means I accept some of the criticism, just be aware that many of the issues that caused so much grief are history.

From the 1990s, domestic from LHR looked like this :
ABZ current BA / BD
BFS dropped by BA taken up by EI
BHX dropped by BD
EDI current BA / BD
EMA dropped by BD
GCI dropped by UK to focus on STN if I recall.
GLA current BA, dropped by BD
INV DA-> BA-> LGW
IOM JE->BA->LGW
JER BA -> LGW
LBA dropped by BD
MAN current BA / BD
MME dropped by BD
NCL current BA
NQY/PLH BC->BA->LGW

It's clear the slots BA got by moving the Brymon, Manx and Dan Air inherited routes to LGW were used for long haul expansion.
EMA, BHX, MME and LBA are unsustainable with the improvements in the railways. Flying to BHX is just not realistic nowadays! It's not the dramatic loss of capacity that some people imply. I suspect PLH would still be open if the LHR link was still an option.

1992 : 16
2012 : 6

[blbl8326]

very ironic that BD is called British Midlands, but does not operate from midlands airport....

[jabird]

very ironic that BD is called British Midlands, but does not operate from midlands airport....

Baby have retreated to BHX & EMA + BHD

Or that BA no longer have any kind of hub operation outside London (don't count Openskies). Or that Virgin Atlantic don't just fly across the Atlantic. Or QANTAS fly beyond Queensland & the Northern Territories.

Airline chop and change all the time. SOE - I agree that LHR is an improved experience, and a BHX feeder a total non-starter.

[Fairdealfrank]

Silver, you’re being way too subjective! All your arguments appear to be based on a particular loathing of LHR. Can understand exactly where you’re coming from (would always move heaven and earth to avoid CDG) but I am not, and could not, objectively contribute to a CDG thread!

The main problems with LHR:
(1) it is running at 98-99% capacity so the slightest problem has dire consequences;
(2) there are often long waits to take off and land, though not as bad as at CDG in my experience (sorry!);
(3) occasional waits for a stand to become available on arrival because the previous occupant is still waiting to join the queue for take off;
(4) there are not enough destinations compared to the other 4 main European hubs;
(5) an appalling lack of domestic connections, just 7 airports in 6 cities;
(6) a lack of any non-LHR-based UK carriers operating to/from the airport, including “no frills“, although high airport charges and APD may also have a bearing on this (as well as slot costs of course);
(7) there are sometimes queues at border control (as at many airports);
(8) a lack of dedicated landside terminal transfer buses requiring the use of public buses/trains, some of which are only a half-hourly service but are free, or the underground which isn’t.
(9) scattered terminals require airside transfers by bus, although grouping airlines by alliance is reducing this;
(10) public transport access could be improved.


Numbers 1-6 could be resolved by runway expansion so that the airport no longer runs at capacity and the scarcity, and therefore the cost, of slots is no longer an issue. Silver could then have his much needed commuter flights. Number 7 is the responsibility of the Home Office, and number 10 can apply anywhere.

Zooker is clearly right that no one from the North/Scotland WANTS to “route via London”, and for many destinations they do not need to. But where it is necessary to change planes, they should at least have the option of changing at LHR. For example, KL links 15 UK airports to AMS, 9 of which are in the North/Scotland. It should be about choice and LHR’s lack of capacity is stifling it. Lack of connectivity to LHR is affecting the viability of smaller regional airports, for example, MME. PLH, as mentioned above, has already closed.

Skipness’s listing of the domestic routes that have gone makes tragic reading (wasn’t LPL on that list, or did that finish earlier?). It also illustrates for how long LHR has had capacity problems. Even if the these were addressed soon, reinstating domestic routes could be problematic because of high airport charges and the absurd expense and structure of air passenger duty (APD).

It is good that Jabird has mentioned Japan, because it illustrates well the fact that the existance of high speed rail does not eliminate the need for domestic flights as is constantly suggested by pro-HS2 lobbies, anti-LHR lobbies, and some government ministers who ought to know better.

The main Japanese trunk route Tokyo-Osaka, illustrates this well. A high speed train leaves every 10 minutes. There are also around 50 flights between the two cities (all airports) most days, about half of which are “wide-body” aircraft. HND is still mostly domestic and is handles nearly as many pax as LHR.

Similarly, despite Madrid and Barcelona having a new high speed train link, there are still some 40 flights/day between them. If the HS2 is ever built, provided that Heathrow expansion is completed by then, it will be the same in the UK.

Why? it’s obvious, because new routes and links open up new opportunities and make new journeys viable. This explains the success of the “no-frills” operations and why new motorways fill up so quickly.

By the way, forget about LHR closing, even if Silver’s island is built.

[PAXboy]

There's just one problem with a 3rd runway at LHR. Let us assume that it is railroaded through (pun intended!) and opens on 1st April 2012.

BAA plc will immediately over sell it by oferring more slots than they can handle at the terminals, taxiways and stands (as they have done with the two primaries). So the capacity would have been expanded but the capacity issue would remian the same. If they then built a 4th, the same would happen.

It would happen because there is no policy on air traffic in the UK and has not been a policy since the airports and BA were sold off. The vested interests are not too great and can weild too big a financial imposition to change it.

[Fairdealfrank]

Paxboy, this is always a possibility because private operators naturally want to maximise profits for their shareholders.

However if a third runway is railroaded through...oh, be quick, look at that flock of pigs!...there are likely to be conditions, one of which would be a raising of the limit of 480,000 movements.

If this limit is set at a lower figure than 720,000, with a third runway, the airport can be required to operate at an optimal operational capacity (say 80%) rather than an optimally profitable one (100%), whilst keeping alternation on the two primary runways and the overnight closure.

That said, there is still plenty of scope for expansion and the owners can still make money.

[Navpi]

Glasgow best connected domestics....

I think thats stretching things if we include daily flights to the Isle of Aggis or downtown Balamory etc