New Thames Airport for London

[silverstrata]

.

Cameron signals backing for the new Silver-Boris airport.
New towns to 'disfigure' UK: Fury over move to ditch 60 years of planning law in bid to construct new garden cities | Mail Online


Likewise on Newsnight, Paxo asked the Conservative spokesman how Cameron can be promoting new airport capacity in the S.E., while simultaneously blocking plans for LHR expansion. The answer, with a wry smile, was: "there are more airports in the southeast than Heathrow..."


.

[PAXboy]

Paxo asked the Conservative spokesman how Cameron can be promoting new airport capacity in the S.E., while simultaneously blocking plans for LHR expansion. The answer, with a wry smile, was:...

because he is a politician. Simples!

[silverstrata]

Paxboy (or is that Paxman?)

I am sure there is more to it than this.

Political initiatives come in waves and bandwagons. The Labour bandwagons were Diversity and Climate, and everyone jumped on. The Conservative bandwagons are rapidly becoming: rebalancing the economy (more industry), and infrastructure.

There is no doubt that the S.E. needs more aviation capacity, but the question is will Cameron be bold, or simply fudge like all previous governments. Cameron will be looking for a legacy project - if he thinks Silver-Boris is uncertain as a success story, he will drop it - but if he thinks it will be a success he will do everything he can to make it happen. Just think - JFK airport DWDC airport - it has a nice ring to it.....

We wait and see what he decides.


.

[Fairdealfrank]

Welcome back Silver, you've been conspicuous by your absence since the announcement of the "Silver Island Site of Special Scientific Interest"!

Realistically, it is probable that the estuary island airport plan will fly until Boris has won the election. Coincidentally, the "review" will report soon after that and will sensibly recommend LHR expansion on the grounds that is urgently required and can start as soon as the go-ahead is given.

[silverstrata]

Fairdeal

Realistically, it is probable that the estuary island airport plan will (not?) fly until Boris has won the election. Coincidentally, the "review" will report soon after that and will sensibly recommend LHR expansion on the grounds that is urgently required and can start as soon as the go-ahead is given.

Don't believe a word of it.

Firstly, expanding LHR will be a complete U-turn and make Cameron look a fool.
Secondly, expanding LHR is not a legacy project. Cameron will never get his name in lights simply for building a new runway. Its Silver-Boris or bust (or should that be Silver-Cameron?).

.

[vulcanised]

How are they going to fit it around the huge craft that are going to be using the new dock being created?

[vulcanised]

Here we go again.......

Heathrow Third Runway 'Back On The Table' - Yahoo! News UK

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Don't believe a word of it.

Firstly, expanding LHR will be a complete U-turn and make Cameron look a fool.
Secondly, expanding LHR is not a legacy project. Cameron will never get his name in lights simply for building a new runway. Its Silver-Boris or bust (or should that be Silver-Cameron?)."

silverstrata, no problems with a U-turn, they are soon forgotten, who remembers the forest selloff, the EU (Lisbon) referendum, repatriation of powers from the EU, getting tough with the European judges, and the fuel duty stabiliser? Continue? Thought not.

Also there is no need to worry about coalition splits, the Libdems are going nowhere. Even if they did, Call-Me-Dave could easily run a minority government. Labour has no money and will not bring the government down and risk an early election it could lose, nor will the increasingly unpopular Libdems who would be "slaughtered". Justine could "fall on her sword" or be moved out of the way if neccessary.

Quote: "There is no doubt that the S.E. needs more aviation capacity, but the question is will Cameron be bold, or simply fudge like all previous governments. Cameron will be looking for a legacy project - if he thinks Silver-Boris is uncertain as a success story, he will drop it - but if he thinks it will be a success he will do everything he can to make it happen. Just think - JFK airport DWDC airport - it has a nice ring to it.....

We wait and see what he decides."

No, silverstrata, if Silver-Boris is ever built, it would be the legacy of a politician not yet born. No one will remember that Livingstone brought the Olympics to London in 2005 unless it is a fiasco, then it will be "Ken's folly" or Livingstone's vanity project. If successful, this will be Dave's legacy.


Interesting article, vulcanised, Osborne is of course correct on this one, there is no realistic alternative to LHR expansion. The idea of re-opening NHT to civil aviation has merits in its own right. It could become a LCY- or SEN-type operation, potentially opening up a large wealthy catchment area to the west of London (for a change) to no-frills carriers and smaller carriers operating thin domestic routes. These are currently excluded from LHR mainly for financial reasons (high airport charges for small aircraft, slot costs, etc.).

Thin domestic routes providing connectivity between regional airports and London and the Thames Valley are desperately needed to boost the economy and the export drive, (region to region is generally well served). LHR can no longer provide these unless it is expanded. An airport station on the Chiltern line could provide a convenient 17-minute link to London.

A high speed link between LHR and NHT (as mentioned in the article) could provide transfer potential to/from overseas flights at LHR. Unprofitable commuter-only or feeder-only flights thus become viable as combined commuter/feeder flights. Of course this depends on whether carriers can see business potential.

Clearly, the development of NHT is not a substitute for LHR expansion, NHT would be a small scale operation and new flights to Asia and South America cannot go from there. The two projects are complementary, both could be completed relatively quickly, and both play a part in addressing lack of capacity in the south east.

A joint military-civil airport at NHT could also bring in revenue for the military, take general aviation and VIP travel away from LHR, and keep a defence capability close to London, a far better alternative to the possible closure of NHT.

It's win-win all round.

[nigel osborne]

Am I being cynical or are they backing the Thames estuary airport feasibility study just to boost Boris bid for mayor. Politics huh

Expect them to say after that election the new airports far too expensive and it has to be a 3rd LHR runway

Nigel

[Fairdealfrank]

Spot on Nigel!!

[PAXboy]

In this article: Heathrow: Tories Boris says:

Boris Johnson, in an interview yesterday, suggested he had changed his position supporting the Thames airport. He said: "Contrary to popular belief I am not the slightest bit wedded to some remote archipelago in the Thames estuary" – indicating he could support expansion at Heathrow or Gatwick. Tim Yeo, chairman of the Commons environmental audit committee, said recently it was "more practical to build a third runway".

Do you think he might be a politician? If No.10 wants to support LHR then it would make more sense for Boris to join them as he cannot beat them. What fun ...

[Fairdealfrank]

What larks indeed! Silver-Boris is sinking without trace.......

[Barling Magna]

Silver-Boris never had a chance. It is purely part of a political game of smoke and mirrors to ensure that Boris gets re-elected. I'm really surprised that the government has let its "we're all in this together" mask slip so badly with Osborne's budget boosting wealth and privilege at the expense of the squeezed middle and the elderly. Add to this the sleaziness of Cruddas and the nasty party is revealing itself again. With the Lib-Dems ruined for a generation that means Labour are the only alternative government - and what a shower they currently are. They did at least support a third runway at LHR, but dumped it once they sensed it was unpopular with marginal constituencies - although I guess the same could be said for Cameron. Depressing.....

On the other hand Northolt could fulfil the role I speculated about a few weeks ago, both as a stand alone LoCo airport and as a transfer point for passengers from the UK regions who wouldn't object to a short journey to LHR in order to benefit fromt he hub connections. But maybe Amsterdam has got too much of a stranglehold on this now......

For the moment let's sit back and enjoy the growth of the new Southend Airport from next Monday. Real jet airliners climbing out over the Thames Estuary, not some architect's dream.....

[compton3bravo]

Personally I just cannot see a third runway at Heathrow (some of us remember when 05/23 was active then somebody decided to build a terminal at one end - foward planning I don´t think so) being built. Nimbys and public enquiries etc spring to mind. As for Northolt another non starter I´m afraid just would not work. The only solution to my mind is joint runway operations at Heathrow (take-offs and landings on both runways) but we know that won´t happen because the CAA (Campaign Against Aviation) would not allow it on safety grounds - but it happens in other countries.
Going back to see Barling Magna eulogise over easyJet´s Southend operation may I remind everyone that the three aircraft operating from that airport were transferred from Stansted but good luck to Southend I think they will need it in the long term when the introductory deal from Stobart runs out.

[PAXboy]

HOLD THE FRONT PAGE
Boris has spoken: I won't allow third Heathrow runway, says Boris Johnson - UK Politics - UK - The Independent

So he wants ...

• Expansion to airport capacity in the South East
• He is not wedded to the Island
• He won't allow 3rd at EGLL

At least he is being consistent with all the politicians of the last 40 years.

BUT, what I take from this is that they are going to give Northolt a bash and see if that works. It probably won't but it will show them doing something and giving time for another NIMBY group to shout and then it will be time for the general election.

At least they are being consistent with all the politicians of the last 40 years.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Personally I just cannot see a third runway at Heathrow (some of us remember when 05/23 was active then somebody decided to build a terminal at one end - foward planning I don´t think so) being built."

05/23 did not allow for three runways to be used simultaneously: it was either 09L/27R and 09R/27L or 05/23. That's why it had to go, in order to facilitate terminal expansion. A new 10/28 would allow all three to be used together.

Quote: " Nimbys and public enquiries etc spring to mind. As for Northolt another non starter I´m afraid just would not work. The only solution to my mind is joint runway operations at Heathrow (take-offs and landings on both runways) but we know that won´t happen because the CAA (Campaign Against Aviation) would not allow it on safety grounds - but it happens in other countries."

It has nothing to with safety, mixed mode is banned to allow residents a noise-free period either before 1500 or after, alternating daily. No third runway would almost certainly lead to the adoption of mixed mode eventually - they're already experimenting with it. Mixed mode would be the only way to increase capacity. The congestion at LHR, however, would get worse with longer queues to take off and land.

Quote: "Going back to see Barling Magna eulogise over easyJet´s Southend operation may I remind everyone that the three aircraft operating from that airport were transferred from Stansted but good luck to Southend I think they will need it in the long term when the introductory deal from Stobart runs out"

Let's hope SEN is a success, it could be a template for NHT.

[jabird]

There is no doubt that the S.E. needs more aviation capacity

Well actually, there are lots of doubts - rising fuel costs, environmental concerns not being limited to those under the flight paths, ETS and APD to name but a few. Oh, and economic woes to boot.

I think we really need to have a debate about just how big this future capacity demand is really going to be before we plough head first into expensive new construction projects.

Obviously, there are reasons for growth too, primarily based around increased leisure time. The internet is reducing the need for some journeys whilst creating demand for others. Some aviation markets, especially in the Middle and Far East are clearly growing, but others are stagnant, so what is the net effect on the UK?

Rather than fuss about having to kill domestic routes in order to open up new Oriental ones, might some services to the USA cull themselves of natural causes before this?

If, and I still think it is a big if, the net effect of all these threats and opportunities is still growth, then is it in the traditional legacy market, or will moves towards more ptp flying continue, as the trend of the last decade has shown?

Somehow, I don't think LHR3 and Boris Island are the only options on the table.

[jabird]

As for the NHT + LHR "combo", I think it might look good on paper until you actually get a calculator out and get a costing on some form of highly complex people mover to link between what would effectively be T6 and the other terminals, with sections for domestic / international zones + what about landside movements too?

Remember the tiny spur from hs2 to T5 has been costed at £4bn, nearly as much as T5 itself cost, and that is before Beardie screams blue murder about the unfair advantage it will yield to BA.

The HS2 T5 station would not need any extensive tunneling under the runways, unlike a system serving the CTA.

I doubt you'd see any change out of £4bn for such a system, all for limited benefits compared with LHR R3. That's not to say I'm sold on R3 either, but it is a much better bet compared to LHR+NHT.

[jabird]

From the Mail article:

‘We need to retain our status as a key global hub for air travel, not just a feeder route to bigger airports elsewhere, in Frankfurt, Amsterdam or Dubai.’

All of which are still smaller than Heathrow, which itself only handles around half of the SE market. LGW, STN + LTN all somewhat bigger than HHN, are they not, and unlike AMS, CDG, MAD and to a lesser extent FRA, LHR has next to no lca traffic.

[jabird]

So Boris definetely not going for a 3rd runway at LHR? To what extent is it really his decision to make? Maybe we should just trust the transport secretary to make an unbiased decision - not!