Ryanair exodus, what is the plan?
 

Hello,
Does somebody has any ideas of what FR will do to stop the exodus of experienced FO and newly captain to the sandpit? I heard between 100 and 200 has already resign and probably more to come...I think that to reestablish the senior first officer salary for FO and remove the 10% pay cut and give the base you request for the new captain would be a minimum...But I don't know why I have the feeling that FR don't see the seriousness of the situation and will head toward the wall shouting a big :mad:
Good evening

any ideas?

keep taking on willing people who are up for giving them 25-30,000 euros or whatever they are charging these days for their jobs???

just 1 option open to them i suppose

The cunning plan Jupilair is for O'leary to paint 'Bye Bye Emirates' on all it's 737s !!

Thereby ensuring that Emirates goes bankrupt, ":mad: pilots!" lose their jobs and they come running back to Ryanair for a salary less than a Her Majesty's tea lady.

Good evening.

Blue footed booby, thank you very much for the good laugh. It's a good try from Mol but most likely soon there will be a note on an Ek 777 "merhaba Ryanair aerosexual" followed soon by a note on an A380 "Inshallah Ryanair".
You can already see the influence of Ek in Dub with the white elephant terminal...(heard FR try to find a name for it...why not "the nearly like T3 but with really less passengers"?)

Good evening

Ohh the exodus to EK, a walk out en mass! Really?? 100-200 people. There's a big discrepancy between 100 and 200? I heard 10 so far, 10 who have firm offers from EK. There will probably be more; and of course, why not? But enough to see the management at FR bitting their finger nails and wondering how they will replace all those expensive BRK FOs (whom I believe the majority of those leaving for the sandpit will be?) Don't see that happening. 100 'senior' FOs could walk tomorrow. Sure in the long run it ***** FR with the CU process. Short term, they won't bat an eyelid! 100 Captains in the middle of the summer season would be an entirely different equation! :eek:

Frying pan & fire sums it up if you believe even half of the anti-Emirates rants on the ME forum.

The time to go to the sandpit was probably a decade or two ago, strikes me as fools gold, but not even enough of it.

No doubt there are enough "aerosexuals" with size issues, maybe they should look at the bigger picture, all IMHO of course.

It was reported that EK need at least 700 pilots. FR has by my quick maths around 3000 pilots (250ish airframes times 6 crews). No HR department in their right mind would hire exclusively from one airline so don't expect them to fill all the slots from FR. Likewise if BA and Virgin start recruiting don't expect them to target FR solely.

I can't see that any loss of pilots will really cause MOL any problems. There are enough people willing to pay to fly to fill his courses up for years to come. Sure his experience base might be depleted but this has never worried him in the past. He has loads of airframes parked up anyway and his pilots are not working that hard at the moment in anycase. A bit of tweaking with the roster would pick up any slack and bring a smile to the eye of the BRK contractors as their pay packets increase.

Given that funding is difficult to find I am surprised that MOL hasn't offered a scheme similar to CTC where he effectively screws the candidate out of more money through paying back career loans in addition to a salary/hourly rate sacrifice. It would lock in the pilot in the absence of having any cash to be able to buy themself out of the "deal".

Who ever said Ryanair has a plan to deal with the upcoming pilot shortage, ("and I say use the term upcoming very loosly as it appears they are short at the moment).

For sure, O'Leary missed the boat ordering those new planes! His business plan is based on aggresive expansion...and for the sake of not spending an extra few euro after his recent scrap with Boeing, he has let his competitors get back at him. There are whisperings that a 787 order is in the running .... Who cares ! Boeings Order Book is nearly as thick as MOLS wallet; Boeing are not interested in RYR unless they willing to pay up. Ryanair got lucky with that cheap order from Boeing those years back, and thats all it was , LUCK, not skill. Boeing were desperate at the time...

Tides are turning, and MOL will be on the back foot very soon...

Before Mickey slips on his PJ's and attempts to have a peaceful sleep tonight he should think about this :
MOL you are now in the big leagues my son ! People are not going to tolerate this school yard bully boy tactics for much longer...If there is no new plane delivery on the cards or there is no attempt to improve the deal with existing pilots, you will be in deep S H 1 T. People will leave, shareholders will wonder why you have got the airline into the situation where it has to ground planes, and Sir there is only one person to blame here, couldnt happen to a nicer fella :)

I could not disagree more. This recession/economic slowdown/credit crunch is far from over, unless you believe the "stress test" bull!!!! propaganda from the politicians and oversight agencies.

Don't believe the fluff coming from Farnborough about some airlines buying aircraft on credit. These orders will evaporate into thin air once the credit used to back them disappears. MOL (and some other low-costs) have plenty of cash, are still profitable and can wait for the double dip recession to start biting when they are ready to place their orders.

As much as I dislike MOL (and his other low-life-low-cost management buddies), stupid they are not! Give it one more year for the world to be back into a recession, then give it one to two more years for Boeing or Airbus to beg RyanScare or Sleazy to "please please please" order some airplanes just to avoid mass redundancies and closure of production lines... :suspect:

@ potkettleblack

Where does mol park his "spare" planes up? do they go to the desert?

there are no planes parked up, the fleet is working to capacity, PKB is talking through his hole.

4 crews per aircraft.

As for orders for 787:ugh: usual company spin introduced when the possibility of large movement afoot. If and it's a pretty damn big "if" ryr goes for large jets it will 777 and there will be loads of them parked soon enough with the 787 starting full production soon enough.

Bia,
very interested in your comments. To my knowledge there has been NO "COMPANY" spin with regard to a possible order of 787s, so how can you be sure that they would go for 777. Have you got this on good authority?

The fuel savings alone expected from brand new shiny 787 would I reckon be the forbidden fruit MOL would want to have a bite at.

Back to the point of this thread however:
MOL is facing a pilot shortage as we speak, and things are NOT going to get better for this guy if he keeps treating people like dirt.

If the shareholders want this airline to continue to grow into the future and not be left behind, either MOL shapes up or ships out !!!

10 captains in the space of one week jumping ship to RHS in emirates.

Just like in easy, Wizz, BMI Baby et al, this is only the BEGINNING.

Annus horribilis on it's way for all these carriers.

Reap/Sow.:ugh:

Seems like there could be some truth in this rumour .....

Allegedly, Flt Ops management honcho PB and personnel sidekick have been touring some of the RYR bases on a charm offensive trying to persuade the 2500 hours SFO's (i.e. those ripe for command upgrade) to stay.

Seems like they are less than enamoured with the prospect of a left seat in a foreign base on a 5 on 3 off roster that doesn't allow them to commute back to UK on days off, and a basic salary lower than previously offered.

Lets get some commonsense going here .
Of course young captains with the low-costs are going to jump ship and accept RHS with Emirates . They know they cannot face 30 years plus flying RYR . A few years RHS learning the ropes of longhaul , nightflights , monsoons , crap ATC etc while working for arguably the worlds most successful airline , is a small price to pay . By the time they are 40 they will have 'made it' for the 2nd time and left behind those fortunate enough to have got into BA / VS etc .
As for Ryanair , they will still be providing young wannabees with the chance to get into jets , and will have many of their current crop approaching command status .
The door may revolve a bit faster , training costs may escalate somewhat , but Ryanair will never run out of crew.

Lets ust get one thing straight..... when FR are forced to cancel flights, this does NOT constitute "exceptional circumstances", that would allow FR to avoid paying compensation to the stranded pax.
Get the refunds ready, it's going to be a long, hot, (stranded!!), summer!

Overheard in STN: about 50 FR pilots already heading for the sandpit and apparently about half are Captains...
Considering the EK hiring drive only started a couple of months ago and that most of the candidates are still to go through the selection I think those numbers can only get bigger and bigger.....:E:E:E:E:E

POTKETTLEBLACK

and too add where do you get the idea the crews are not working hard? I am doing nearly 5 days every roster, all captains I know are working all 5 days! and most people I talk too are the same.

so I ask you?

All your points are valid ,but I am still correct in saying that RYR will find a way . One thing you can count on with MOL is that he WILL react to any threat / trend that he needs to.
Perhaps I omitted to mention the bleeding obvious that RYR take 250 hr wonders , and EK / EY / QR do not , they want the RYR guys with 2500 tt ( whatever it is ) which dovetails nicely with the gap to the RYR requirement for upgrade .
I suspect that RYR quite like their older skippers ( but would never admit it ) as they are less likely to move. Hardly surprising that they are ALWAYS looking for DECs despite their large contingent of suitable upgrades on the spot.
The good news is that the Gulf carriers insatiable demand for drivers is already starting the next 'shortage ' of pilots . In '88 BA started recruiting and it started a huge movement of pilots at every level of experience .This is a very similar scenario .
Todays newspapers / news are full of how airlines such as Singapore are experiencing quite startling growth and that the worlds airlines are looking at
good overall ( collective ) profits and growth for this year , despite the doom-mongers of only a few months ago.

Quite so,

There will never be a problem filling the right seat at RYR (for the foreseable future anyway), there is a line a mile long of starry eyed wanabees fresh out of Oxford or wherever willing to sell their soul to fly a B738, and it only takes RYR a couple of months or so to get them on line.

However, if significant numbers of 2500 hour + F/O's leave, plus some of the younger Capts who as you say,realise that another 30 years in the LHS with RYR is unsustainable, then I can see a problem, especially if the supply of suitable DECs dry up.

With a relatively high failure rate of command upgrades (rumoured to be over 40 %), its filling the LHS that's going to be a problem for them.


PS

You're right about them "wanting" to hang on to the older Capt's , the company has been a lot more accommodating towards me recently !!
:)

The company has just thrown it out there via the erc in dublin. Like i said it's just spin, you may not have heard it yet, it just depends on how close to the axle you are when it starts. As for the fuel savings you suggest, you can buy an awful lot of gas with the difference in the price of a new 787 v and old 777.

There will i am sure be any amount of stories of how many people are leaving, how many guys have pulled off OCC courses, etc. i would imagine ryr will be the only ones who really know the truth, and for the remainder of this year i don't see a big problem as the winter slow down will ease pressure, but as we all know its the left seat thats a problem for them and with most captains already doing the odd day off for them to create stby's there is obviously a shortage, any captains leaving that are not being replaced by sfo is where the trouble starts for them, for every 4 that go it's a plane not operating next year, thats before you factor in new aircraft. We may well see a return to the days prior 06 when aircraft were wet leased to help run the schedule. Will it mean a change in the t&c conditions, properly in the short term not, will it mean mol walks around cursing the need for pilots at all, most certainly, the only way i would imagine that increases in t&c will happen will be on a one to one bases.

Hello
Has anyone heard any rumours about RYR commencing any recruitment of rated and experienced FOs or is it still only rated Captains and new Cadets that they are interested in? Had hoped that with guys leaving demand for FOs with 2000 + hours would open up recruitment.

More than 2600+ CVs of fresh 200hrs CPL young guys are on Ryanair's Desk standing by, all willing to fly a beautiful B737-800 with a nice base in Europe, for just a few pennies :ok:
So people going to Emirates and other middle east companies will allow even cheaper new labour to join Ryanair. This is how it is at Ryanair.
Remeber, MOL is aiming to offer its passengers only free tickets ;)

As for people leaving Ryanair, they might see themselves even more p.issed off at Emirates, flying maximum hours/year on a fully automatic airplane, based in a hot, dry expensive country, far from everything :E

Bia Botal has is right, no one will actually know what the actual crewing scenario is besides Ryanair itself. Rumour fills the air here like a thick fog. One day no body is leaving and the next day half the crew are upping sticks. Pilots are naturally inquisitive soles and have a burning interest in the next best thing. However when push comes to shove, actually making the commitment to move, especially far a field, doesn't come easy; no matter how serious they sound when chatting in the corner of the crewroom or at FL370.

It's fairly certain that FR will be losing crew in the coming months to the likes of Emirates; however I strongly doubt it is going to be a 'mass exodus.' We are all working hard at the moment which suggests that crewing levels are covering capacity. There are people working occasional days off, however as bia suggests; this is freeing up standby cover as and when. There has been no talk of crews doing regular out of base rotations, suffering from constant roster alterations or being under continual pressure to work a 6th day. That to me would be the real indicator that crewing are starting to suffer. Until then we appear set to ride this summer out. Crew levels will be more than adequate for the winter. Then potkettleblack will have his chance to see a few aircraft parked up!!

The continual rumbling is that we are short on Captains, however that's been the case since I joined. This, in my opinion, is based on projected growth. The airline knows that it needs to keep the flow to the LHS going. As for favouring DECs? I think its more based on the fact that it doesn't have any other option. The internal CU process doesn't even cover it, and that's even if everyone were to pass so I'm told. Plan B may indeed be hiring a few command ready FOs. However this has been attempted before and had limited success.

On the other hand, growth will eventually stop (within 2 to 3 years?) If we do hit a double dip recession then attrition will again be low. The burning desire for CUs and DECs will be a thing of the past. High time career FOs at Ryanair anyone? :confused:

Mike, part agree, part disagree. Career airline it isn't however a recognised grounding for a future career path it is. I'm not sure if 'most' FOs believe that the grass is always greener. Whilst there isn't an ambition to remain here forever more, I think a few FOs have become wise to the fact that it is better to leave after a year in the LHS than leave from the right. Command time is and will remain a valued commodity. Whist a 2500 hour FO meets the minimum entry requirements for Emirates; he/she is as just about as useful as tits on a nun everywhere else!

If Ryanair ever gets short of FOs to upgrade there is plenty of young Turbo-prop commanders who would self fun a DEC... (I have heard the conversations)

"Wanted... Flybe captains with 2000 hours command on the Q400 who will take out a loan for a 73NG rating, at their own risk of not passing the line training"

Problem solved

It's a shame but people now are happy to get in more debt to advance their careers, just look at the adverts regularly on here, you can now pay for 500 hours 747 command time!

a few years ago when ryr had 900 pilots this would have been an issue..they say 5% of crew must leave before theres an issue... 5% of 2 and a half thousand pilots wont be leaving ryanair in near future...
also for those who feel the ryanair business model will have to change when pilots demand fair treatment and deals, well o leary selling a chunk of shares yesterday is fuel to your fire:ok:

In Ryanair it is very simple to find out information if you ask a base supervisor or anyone in the offices in STN. So asked in STN tonight. The inflight supers have access to all reports in every base.

Exodus my ass - 9 Captains and 9 Copilots leaving in total over the next three months. Four to Emirates - 1 Cp and 3 Co-jo - 2 to FlyDubai a Cp and a CoJo. I know 2 of the CoJos leaving to Emirates and both failed command in STN twice. Over a year that is maybe 80-100 leaving in total out of 2600.

As trainers all briefed that 3 OCC courses cancelled - replaced with Command courses. DEC courses end next March. No plans to ever hire DE FO's as it takes winter and 2 SIMS to get into command process.

MugaB running crewing very tight. CoJos getting a lot of hours.

FR data very easy to find out. In STN the sign in sheet and Netline are on desks to all crew members and you can easily see how many crew in base and work out crewing from a/c numbers. It looks like we are down in STN to approx 160 Cp and 160 Fos which is really just enough for winter a/c. Same data easy to get at all other bases.

MugaB rumoured to be leaving FR for EZYland to fix the crewing issues which is what he did at Ryanair in 06. He looks ill to me - very gaunt. Good riddance.

Ryanair real problems are creating revenue. Straying from the model with all these long flights - ops I did on many Canaries flights with less than 50% last Winter.

Bizzare - Worked floating in DUB for a few weeks and carried up and down to ORK twice in a week a head marketing guy who seems to commute daily to DUB. Not very Ryanair style. We had to delay flights twice and lie for his commute. He never said as much as thanks. New commercial staff would help I think. There will be no pay increases unless they fix how to get more cash in the L1 door.

Well this is what you know as far as STN is concerned so far, lots of people from many other bases attended the various roadshows EK held across Europe and quite a few of them will be going to DXB over the next few months for their selections.


Strange, quite a few OCC guys from Skyeurope and Olympic have been seen around lately.
It might take 1 winter and 2 sims to upgrade a DE FO, it takes around 3/4 years to upgrade a cadet in the best case (with around 50% failure rate).

Stn Pilot Rubbish
 

please don't suggest that you know everything from speaking to a base supervisor. It's inane to think that. People are leaving. A figure I heard today from a senior figure was 125. But who knows, and who really cares? its a bit of a rubbish job and no surprise people want to leave.

The super printed off the list of names for the whole airline - and 18 is the total leaving across the airlines in the next 3 months. I think it will be 100 leaving over a year but this is less than 5%. People do care and that is why they give data on this forum.

There is also lots of interesting audited data on the SEC 20f which is located here:-
SEC Info - Ryanair Holdings PLC - 20-F - For 3/31/10

figure i heard was 125 pilots leaving (cpt +fo), secondhand info, but from someone i would expect to know. but who really cares, this is normal. you get a better offer, then you leave.

a look in the back of flight international the last few weeks shows that airlines outside the uk are beginning to hire, although our carriers are all still dead in the water. however, the international nature of ryanairs pilot workforce (with plenty of guys commuting during days off), means that there is no attachment to the uk or ireland or anywhere. flying in the sandpit would mean a big move for a brit, but for someone who's commuting to the uk from the far side of europe or is already living abroad, not really.

Horses mouth ( TRI ) , apparently NO DECs for next year , T&Cs continue to deteriorate !!
So much for that !
I reckon the beancounters have detected the double-dip recession biting and would rather be temporarily short of crew ( if they have got it wrong ) than make the mistake ( to them of course ) of spending 1 cent for no reason .
My 2 cents.

Out of the frying pan into the fire!
 

I regularly talk to some guys from Emirates down route, and what I hear from them does NOT make me want to fly for them. All of it (the brainwashing, the hard work, the STASI bullying tactics) remind me of my days in Easy. All of them look fatigued, overworked and NOT happy!

Sure, the lure of those shiny jets and 4 stripes is very appealing, but that's the problem with low-cost pilots in general: they only look at flying shiny jets and a quick upgrade (turbo prop --> Easy Ryan 737/A319 --> Emirates) but they always forget to look at the company! Out of the frying pan into the fire indeed! :ugh:

Everybody wants it NOW; the quick upgrades, the shiny jets etc. Nobody wants to invest time into a decent company and join at the bottom of a seniority list anymore. Well, guess what: there's a price you pay for those shiny jets and those quick 4 stripes, and that price is the very reason why people now want to leave Easy and Ryan in droves! Don't make the same mistake again, if you want to leave then leave for something significantly better!

I would seriously recommend against anyone leaving a (lousy) European company with poor T&C's to fly for a (lousy) Middle Eastern company with poor T&C's, unless you're happy with the career model of always being underpaid, overworked yet flying a shiny jet with 4 stripes!

Even if you're not that happy now in Easy or Ryan you're still in Europe, and not an immigrant worker in a desert police state without any basic human rights, basically on par with these poor Pakistani and Bangladeshi workers who are slaving away on the next skyscraper.

Your much better off getting your act together and make that European company a better place to stay and work!

Now that would seriously p!ss off MOL! ;)

Consider this: european FR pilot working 900hrs a year and making as a captain what an F/O makes in EK, without pension, without loss of licence,without healthcare, based 2/3 hours flight time away from home (maybe in an eastern european Baltic base or at the far south bottom of Europe),without tickets for his family, having to pay for uniform/ID/medicals/SIMS/hotels, forced to accept paycuts in case he gets the base of choice, forced to accept paycuts in case he upgrades to the left seat and other very civilized and democratic practices...
Dubai might not be the country of freedom but surely Emirates is a major step up as far as basic T&C's goes if compared to FR and considering the very young average age of the FR pilot population there are hundreds willing to give it a try.


:}:}:}:}:}

How can a pilot, who is self employed, leave an airline?

dannyalliga, that kind of short term, vicious circle thinking will always get people into crappy companies, yet never out of their misery...

Like spineless fools looking for a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, they leave and prostitute themselves to the next slave/camel driver for a couple of pennies extra, instead of staying and improving their current situation.

It's pretty obvious which way those psychological airline entry tests are biased when it comes to "fight of flight" questions! ;)

Bokkenrijder,

are you referring to FR pilots in your speech?To those that pay 30k euros to get into the right seat and that accept base changes/paycuts/less days off to go to the left seat?
You are talking about modern prostitutes here my friend, there is no pride nor any sort of attachment to the brand nor the flag in FR pilots, no sense of belonging whatsoever.
The recipe is lacking the basic ingredients for any kind of pro-active action.
The very same ingredients are however perfect for those who are in constant search for something more and willing to betray anyone for gold.

That's why Emirates is the most common topic during the cruise at Ryanair....

Guys, I suggest you read the various EK threads on this website. Don't just sit in a FR cockpit and talk about EK with the guy/gal sitting in the seat next to you! They're probably as young, dumb, naive and clueless as yourself and are willing to brush all the negative things under the carpet because they get turned on by the sight of an EK A380.

As I said, I regularly meet and talk to EK pilots all over the world and the picture they paint is not a pretty one... :{

I've seldom seen such naivety and stupidity written;

So what do you think EK is all about? You really think it's philanthropy in the UAE? Do you think they offer you even one Dollar/Dirham too much for living in DXB? :rolleyes: Same for EK! Lot's of F/O's pilots have been screwed (read: bypassed!) by DEC's in EK.Good you'll like it in DXB then, because you will not find any pride in being a 3rd rate worker without a right to unionize in the UAE! You'll have the 'status' right in between a camel and a woman (a local gal that is!). Western woman are just wh*res in the eyes of the locals and the Asian domestic help are good enough to have their passports confiscated and used as modern day slaves.

You poor spineless guys will reap what you sow. With such an attitude EK will quickly discover that you guys are weak pushovers (if they haven't figured this out already!) and give you the same FR treatment. You guys will be perfect for the job: an employment history of not being a 'troublemaker,' too lazy and cowardly to grab the bull by the horns at home, and naive enough to think you can sail into a 'respectable' airline just because they fly wide bodies and pay slightly more. Hahahaha! Dream on!

You poor misguided souls never really thought this thing through now did you? EK is nothing more than a sort of 'higher cost' long haul version of FR, complete with cabin crew from the 3rd world and pilots desperate enough to join them. And of desperate and naive pilots there seems to be an endless supply... :}

Final tip: have a look on Youtube and search for documentaries about the UAE, what it means to have debts you can't pay off (mortgage..) and how they treat foreign workers. Last week there was a good documentary on the BBC about this issue and here's the result from a quick search;

YouTube - The Human Cost Of Dubai's Economic Meltdown

YouTube - The Human Cost Of Dubai's Economic Meltdown

Final tip: don't be stupid, naive and ill prepared, read the threads about EK here on PPRuNe!!!!!!!