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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 23rd Mar 2020, 15:53
  #341 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
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Originally Posted by waco View Post
AA/

GG/ Unless we get some strong leadership and proper organisation very soon. I dread the consequences that will follow!
I agree this is a moment in history where strong leadership and proper organisation are going to be vital.
I think that all the leaders are struggling and this is normal as this is so unprecedented, I personally do not like the way some of the leaders are dealing with this crisis, some are are not fit for purpose during a crisis of this magnitude. We need real leadership like the one of the Italian PM Giuseppe Conte who is not a professional politician however he is very smart and very calm under pressure and he has been able to make very difficult decisions in a very short period of time.
We need proper leadership, I agree and this is urgent.
To remain within the topic of PPRuNe, this is a very significant emergency in each country. It is a bit like the well known aircraft that had just lost all the engines close to the Hudson river a few years ago, we all know that the exceptional calibre of the Captain definitely made the difference and saved all those on board, well COVID19 is very similar, we cannot have a below average Capt at the front instead we need a top of the top Captain (e.g. Sully=Giuseppe) or the plane will just crash somewhere due to wrong decisions being taken, or no decision at all or too late. Obviously this is my personal opinion, those leaders who could do quite well in normal circumstances maybe they are not suitable at all for this massive crisis due to their personalities which are maybe incompatible with this type of crisis. Hopefully they will be surrounded by more suitable personalities to handle this crisis and we might be fine in the end.
We basically need the best possible Captain in each country's cockpit, the best do not necessarily have to be in charge 24/7 but the various Head of Govts need the smartest minds very close to them and daily for constant valuable advice and speedy decisions.
We are in uncharted territory, standard procedures are not applicable, same as Capt Sully, he intentionally ignored all standard procedures and therefore saved all pax.
We need very smart, calm, intelligent leaders. Scientists will probably be even more crucial for a speedy resolution.

Last edited by ILS27LEFT; 23rd Mar 2020 at 17:22.
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 15:56
  #342 (permalink)  
 
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I think right now we need to stand together, petty political arguments need to wait, we are in a major catastrophe, we need to be positive.
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 16:06
  #343 (permalink)  
 
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In these dark times I think this song from Israel is good

Bashana haba’a, neshev al hamirpeset venispor tziporim nodedot.
Next year we will sit on the porch And count all the migrating birds

Yeladim, bekhoufsha, yesakhakhu tofeset beyn habayit, oulebeyn hasadot.
Children on vacation will play catch Between the house and the fields

Od tire, od tire, kama tov yihye, bashana, bashana haba’a
You will see, you will see How good it will be
Next Year

Anavim adumim, yavshilu ad ha’erev veyugshu tzonenim lashulkhan.
Red grapes will ripen by evening And be served chilled to the table

Verukhot redumim, yis’u el em haderekh itonim yeshanim ve’anan.
Pleasant breezes will blow on to the roads Old newspapers and clouds

Od tire, od tire, kama tov yihye, bashana, bashana haba’a
You will see, you will see How good it will be
Next Year

Bashana haba’a, nifros kapot yadayim, mul ha’or hanigar halavan.
We will spread out our open hands Into the bright white light

Anafa levana, tifros ba’or knafayim vehashemesh tizrakh betokhan.
A white heron will spread force in light its wings And the sun will rise in their midst

Od tire, od tire, kama tov yihye, bashana, bashana haba’a
You will see, you will see How good it will be
Next Year

Bashana haba’a, neshev al hamirpeset venispor tziporim nodedot.
Next year we will sit on the porch And count all the migrating birds

Yeladim, bekhoufsha, yesakhakhu tofeset beyn habayit, oulebeyn hasadot.
Children on vacation will play catch Between the house and the fields

Next year
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 16:16
  #344 (permalink)  
 
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well said bad times
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 18:09
  #345 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by waco View Post
... unless we adopt the Chinese approach of total shutdown.
As a WHO official said in a recent interview with the New Scientist magazine ...

[shutdown] ...that's the hard part, but not the really hard part.

To actually stop the virus, [China] had to do rapid testing of any suspect cases, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed or suspect case,
and then quarantine the close contacts for 14 days so they could figure out if they were infected. These were the measures that stopped transmission
in China, not the big travel restrictions and lock-downs.


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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 23:13
  #346 (permalink)  
 
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Indeed, surveillance is key, and that is where Europe is lacking. The high mortality rate in Italy w.r.t. other countries indicates that their community transmission is vastly under-reported.

The measures indicated this evening by the UK PM are both fair and sensible.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 06:57
  #347 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Fostex View Post
Indeed, surveillance is key, and that is where Europe is lacking. The high mortality rate in Italy w.r.t. other countries indicates that their community transmission is vastly under-reported.

The measures indicated this evening by the UK PM are both fair and sensible.
And overdue.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 08:32
  #348 (permalink)  
 
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Richard, et al,
Anything said in advance of a pandemic seems alarmist.
After a pandemic begins, anything one has said or done is inadequate.


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Old 24th Mar 2020, 09:23
  #349 (permalink)  
 
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No, Italy was a case study on what happens when containment and surveillance fail and community transmission runs rampant.

Ireland's response was a contrast to that of the UK for example and initial data seems to indicate less community transmission as a result.

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Old 24th Mar 2020, 10:11
  #350 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Peter H View Post
To actually stop the virus, [China] had to do rapid testing of any suspect cases, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed or suspect case,
and then quarantine the close contacts for 14 days so they could figure out if they were infected. These were the measures that stopped transmission
in China, not the big travel restrictions and lock-downs.
And this is what China did - compared to the West :

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Old 24th Mar 2020, 12:58
  #351 (permalink)  
 
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For many years Aviation had a growth rate of circa 6% per annum. Various events have sought to change that - events such as the financial meltdown in 2008, SARS, 9/11 and so on. After a hiatus, Aviation resumed its growth rate. I suggest this will happen again, after about 18 months when a decent/proper medicine will come out to give most of the human race immunity from this virus. So by 2003 we will be back to a new normal.
The main risks to this are the virus adapting to fight the vaccine, and the vaccine availability being held up by greedy Companies. But the Governments should prevent the latter.
The most scary thing, in my view, is the various Western Governments becoming addicted to their new found spending powers, and to the other powers that they are currently working up.
Meanwhile, they will take their eyes off China and Iran. That is what causes me to worry.
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Old 24th Mar 2020, 21:32
  #352 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ancient Observer View Post
{...}
Meanwhile, they will take their eyes off China and Iran. That is what causes me to worry.
No longer worried about Russia? What's happened? I am devastated. If we worried about Iran and China then darn sure we must worry about Russia!
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Old 25th Mar 2020, 04:28
  #353 (permalink)  
 
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" The old risk associated to printing money vs higher inflation is also obsolete"

Utter nonsense, care to guess where all those computer generated billions released into the economy though the magic of QE went too? Asset bubbles baby!!! And although governments try to hide inflation by nit picking numbers everyone who buys stuff with their own money is well aware you are now getting less stuff for more $, this is called Shrinkfaltion. There's no free lunch, even in a digital world.

Although a vaccine could be here in record time that is still 6 - 12 months away which means it will be late to the party, any treatment will only help decrease the number of deaths but not the spread and hospital beds needed.

Most think COVID 19 is the problem, however it was just pin that burst the bubble, it has exposed the disgusting mess that central banks have created though artificially low interest rates and QE. If the economy was a Diabetic overweight person with high blood pressure who had lost a ton of weight due to a virus, QE is like the doctors prescribing him/her an unhealthy diet in an attempt to get him back to his old weight. We are in this generations defining moment.
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Old 25th Mar 2020, 11:31
  #354 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TACQANAVIAVEC View Post
" The old risk associated to printing money vs higher inflation is also obsolete"

Utter nonsense {...}
There was plenty of other nonsense in that post...

Originally Posted by TACQANAVIAVEC View Post
{...}
QE is like the doctors prescribing him/her an unhealthy diet in an attempt to get him back to his old weight. We are in this generations defining moment.
And that is exactly what they did again. QE for infinity and beyond!

{TLTR}

~2 trillions(!) in the US alone so far. This time they called it "unlimited" support (like there is such thing in a finite world). Together this with the zero (negative in real term) interest rates they wont even hide their intent any longer. And yes doing this simply to prop up (back to where it was ASAP or to even bigger) asset bubbles. (Privatize profits, share the losses)
Just look at the (dead-cat I suspect) "bounce" of D/J (and every stock exchanges) yesterday and today. Of course it is clearly based on "fundamentals". "Wall street posts best performance in almost 90 years" headlines all over. Despite the fact, that countries/economies around the world are in a deeper shite then they were a day before, W/S's grown about 20% in a day. Now that is a successful day in the office. They haven't even closed the bailout deal in congress, yet stock/company "valuations" increased by billions of USD. In such a mad world anything can happen with one exception: "We will not waver; we will not tire; we will not falter, and we will not fail" ("we" doesn't stand for general public in case you wondered).

{EOF TLTR}

I have read that the UK gov isn't going to bailout airlines, but I guess then it is exactly what they are planing to do, just waiting until they can fleece the retail investors a bit more first. Spread more fear amongst the public, to be ready to change those pesky employee T&C's for the benefit of the owners without any resistance. Then share the losses with the plebs of course, "for the children".

And the peasants rejoice.
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Old 25th Mar 2020, 16:23
  #355 (permalink)  
 
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Government help and QE

I strongly disagree, the truth is that QE and low interest rates have been used and abused by Central Banks for several years and well before COVID-19 and the global economy was still healthy despite QE + low rates.
If what you say is actually true then it will be the end of the world soon which I do not think will be the case.
Governments have no other solution.
Would you stop QE and let millions of people lose their jobs and most companies shut down?
If governments stop all the QE assistance the consequences would be unthinkable. It would probably mean the extinction of human race as our existance is based on the existing economic system unless you can provide a different solution please?
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Old 25th Mar 2020, 16:27
  #356 (permalink)  

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It would be probably mean the extinction of human race
Or perhaps the chance for some of the world's indigenous peoples to live in what used to be their homelands. (sorry, back to the thread)
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Old 25th Mar 2020, 16:34
  #357 (permalink)  
 
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So true

Originally Posted by Herod View Post
Or perhaps the chance for some of the world's indigenous peoples to live in what used to be their homelands. (sorry, back to the thread)
Yes so true
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Old 25th Mar 2020, 17:21
  #358 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ILS27LEFT View Post
{...}and the global economy was still healthy despite QE + low rates.
and the global economy was made to appear healthy despite QE + low rates. It is not healthy when you have negative (in real term) interest rates. It means there can not be paid any interest on your cash/savings. That is a complete failure and not a booming economy.
Originally Posted by ILS27LEFT View Post
If governments stop all the QE assistance the consequences would be unthinkable.
It is thinkable you just don't want to hear it, instead just want to kick the can down on the road.. the easy way out.
Originally Posted by ILS27LEFT View Post
{...} unless you can provide a different solution please?
Sure:

Restore capitalism!


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Old 25th Mar 2020, 18:17
  #359 (permalink)  
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News of the day from France :
Orly airport announced this afternoon they are closing down the airport from 31 March UFN.
Roissy (CDG) traffic is down 89% and they will close 2 terminals , no date yet .
Air France current reduced capacity schedule ( max 10% of Summer schedule) will last for the next 2 months .
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Old 26th Mar 2020, 09:32
  #360 (permalink)  
 
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Lightbulb ambidextrous

Wait until the tide goes out and then see he's still wearing clothing or is now naked?
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