466,000 pilots required.
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I find it difficult to believe that so many people doubt that we could run a little short of pilots. This is especially true for experienced operators. Let’s look at the facts:
1) Training is extremely expensive and finding funding for flight training is nearly impossible. Major training FTO's are being approached by multiple airlines to produce an impossible number of new blood. Highest bidder wins.
2) Air Forces are shrinking at an alarming rate due to massive cut backs and the introduction of UAVs.
3) The world wide retirement age is now 65. Many carriers were 50 at one point, moved to 55/60 and now on to 65. THIS AGE CHANGE CAN’T CONTINUE
4) Some countries are facing massive retirement bubbles (USA) due to demographics.
5) The manufacturers of aircraft (today along with the FAA) are predicting massive growth in the next 10-20 years.
6) We have just gone though the largest recession this new generation of pilots may ever see.
The gulf is going to get cleaned out as soon as the North American/European major carriers start hiring en masse (this is just starting) and wages in the region could easily double. Those low-cost airlines that chose the ‘We treat our crews like ****’ route are going to get hit very hard as well. The demand in China/India will be staggering making experienced well trained pilots a hot commodity. The loss of traditional seniority systems and final salary pensions at established carriers will only enable pilots who would normally hang about for 30 odd years to shop their experience around to the highest bidder.
I am not saying it is going to be all roses but if you look at the hard facts it is not looking bad at all. The airlines short sightedness in the last decade is going to come back to haunt them. They are now trying to prevent shortness in supply by reducing licensing time (MPL) and working to increase FTL’s.
You can’t squeeze blood from a stone and too little too late.
1) Training is extremely expensive and finding funding for flight training is nearly impossible. Major training FTO's are being approached by multiple airlines to produce an impossible number of new blood. Highest bidder wins.
2) Air Forces are shrinking at an alarming rate due to massive cut backs and the introduction of UAVs.
3) The world wide retirement age is now 65. Many carriers were 50 at one point, moved to 55/60 and now on to 65. THIS AGE CHANGE CAN’T CONTINUE
4) Some countries are facing massive retirement bubbles (USA) due to demographics.
5) The manufacturers of aircraft (today along with the FAA) are predicting massive growth in the next 10-20 years.
6) We have just gone though the largest recession this new generation of pilots may ever see.
The gulf is going to get cleaned out as soon as the North American/European major carriers start hiring en masse (this is just starting) and wages in the region could easily double. Those low-cost airlines that chose the ‘We treat our crews like ****’ route are going to get hit very hard as well. The demand in China/India will be staggering making experienced well trained pilots a hot commodity. The loss of traditional seniority systems and final salary pensions at established carriers will only enable pilots who would normally hang about for 30 odd years to shop their experience around to the highest bidder.
I am not saying it is going to be all roses but if you look at the hard facts it is not looking bad at all. The airlines short sightedness in the last decade is going to come back to haunt them. They are now trying to prevent shortness in supply by reducing licensing time (MPL) and working to increase FTL’s.
You can’t squeeze blood from a stone and too little too late.
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1) Training is extremely expensive and finding funding for flight training is nearly impossible. Major training FTO's are being approached by multiple airlines to produce an impossible number of new blood. Highest bidder wins.
who cares, parents will still pay megabucks for their spoiled kids...
2) Air Forces are shrinking at an alarming rate due to massive cut backs and the introduction of UAVs.
still, pilots will fly on the ground, they can log these hours as flight hours...
3) The world wide retirement age is now 65. Many carriers were 50 at one point, moved to 55/60 and now on to 65. THIS AGE CHANGE CAN’T CONTINUE
oh yes it will continue, no limit,based on your 1 st class
4) Some countries are facing massive retirement bubbles (USA) due to demographics.
doesn't mean they need pilot!!
5) The manufacturers of aircraft (today along with the FAA) are predicting massive growth in the next 10-20 years.
in 20 years, you will be too old. another BS from manufacturers...how they can predict the futur in 10 years if people drop bombs on their neighbour?
6) We have just gone though the largest recession this new generation of pilots may ever see.
pilots recession or P2f recession??
who cares, parents will still pay megabucks for their spoiled kids...
2) Air Forces are shrinking at an alarming rate due to massive cut backs and the introduction of UAVs.
still, pilots will fly on the ground, they can log these hours as flight hours...
3) The world wide retirement age is now 65. Many carriers were 50 at one point, moved to 55/60 and now on to 65. THIS AGE CHANGE CAN’T CONTINUE
oh yes it will continue, no limit,based on your 1 st class
4) Some countries are facing massive retirement bubbles (USA) due to demographics.
doesn't mean they need pilot!!
5) The manufacturers of aircraft (today along with the FAA) are predicting massive growth in the next 10-20 years.
in 20 years, you will be too old. another BS from manufacturers...how they can predict the futur in 10 years if people drop bombs on their neighbour?
6) We have just gone though the largest recession this new generation of pilots may ever see.
pilots recession or P2f recession??
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Pilot "shortage"
Having been in aviation both "fixing em and flying em" for neigh on 30 years I think there will never be a shortage of people to fly aeroplanes(note the Queens ENGLISH spelling), as such. What there will be is a shortage of pilots to fly on the Employers terms ,eg Jet2 are struggling to find people to pay for all training for a part time job(else why keep advertising?). So there will be a shortage of P2F and "interns of aviation" in a few years time. I do think that if the world does not run out of oil when the recovery starts for real(2017) that the demand for flying in the UK will return to prior 2008 levels with the same pilot requirement(a lot).
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The big question is will oil ever be below $100 pb again???
), call for oil prices to be between $65-80/barrell...short term spikes, notwithstanding.Observation by Platts Oilgram project (long term) slightly lower.
And yes, I know many in the oil industry.
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Why isnt 'captsuperstorm's ignorant wittering deleted too?!
Ok, in plain English...
Supply and demand dictate price in any industry, so in the coming years why should that be any different in the airlines?!
- there will be more aircraft (ie. More delivered than scrapped)
- there will be more passengers
- the increased retirement age will be reached by more silver haired aviators
- less newbies will be spat out of the schools
Conditions have to improve as we gain more choice of employers. P2F was around when I finished flying school, yet I haven't paid for any of my type ratings.
I'm not holding my breath... but neither am I slashing my wrists!
Ok, in plain English...
Supply and demand dictate price in any industry, so in the coming years why should that be any different in the airlines?!
- there will be more aircraft (ie. More delivered than scrapped)
- there will be more passengers
- the increased retirement age will be reached by more silver haired aviators
- less newbies will be spat out of the schools
Conditions have to improve as we gain more choice of employers. P2F was around when I finished flying school, yet I haven't paid for any of my type ratings.
I'm not holding my breath... but neither am I slashing my wrists!
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Supply and demand dictate price in any industry,
Control of supply and demand also govern pricing structures; as does legislation, anti-competition rules, free trade agreements, taxation etc. etc.
all these also have an impact into the situation concerning pilot T&C's, income and disposable salary.
Conditions have to improve as we gain more choice of employers.
there's a lot of factors that need to be considered in the situation.
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Sorry I should have said... Supply and demand AFFECT prices
Apologies again, I dont understand this comment...
Apologies again, I dont understand this comment...
Really ? in the UK who provides access to the recruitment with potential employers ?
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I think a certain element of the control is in the hands of those who accept the conditions... at the moment I understand why they are being accepted. Hopefully in the future, less applicants will feel they have to.
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the thing is we had a similar thread very recently, and the pilot shortage demand statement rears its head regularly. Most recently it was in a thread entitled BALPA - UK facing shortage of pilots
Rather than re-posting what has already been said, my comments are here and follow on in further replies...
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/4...ml#post6051388
Rather than re-posting what has already been said, my comments are here and follow on in further replies...
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/4...ml#post6051388
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Quoting CaptainSuperstorm
UAV/RPA hours typically don´t count towards overall flying hours for a cockpit job. They do count towards a UAV/RPA job in the civilian world.
2) Air Forces are shrinking at an alarming rate due to massive cut backs and the introduction of UAVs.
still, pilots will fly on the ground, they can log these hours as flight hours...
still, pilots will fly on the ground, they can log these hours as flight hours...
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To state the obvious. Airlines in the so called first world are now a mature industry showing little linearity in their hiring cycles. New airlines aren't popping into existence, growth for any particular carrier is derived from general economic expansion or the poaching of someone else's revenue traffic. For pilot employment in a stagnant industry (with the exception of retirements) a gain at one carrier occurs because of losses at another. The overall number of employed pilots doesn't change and even though the music stops, the training machine continues to march on and add to the bottom of the unemployment pile where P2F can work its mischief.
Much of the anticipated growth will be in developing overseas markets. Some of the opportunities on offer will be worth investigating, many of them won't - and sooner or later the home grown talent will claim their own territory back.
And the projections are of course extrapolated from a less than lucid business model. Consider the future price of oil, a key component.
Your guess as to future pricing is as good as mine, or it would seem as that of other posters.
411A posted Feb 24th on this thread:
Nothing to worry about then. Or is there?
411A posted March 2nd Middle East forum - Life at Emirates:
I'd call that hedging on the price of fuel. 
The dice are definitely rolling on these projected 466,000 pilot slots.
Much of the anticipated growth will be in developing overseas markets. Some of the opportunities on offer will be worth investigating, many of them won't - and sooner or later the home grown talent will claim their own territory back.
And the projections are of course extrapolated from a less than lucid business model. Consider the future price of oil, a key component.
Your guess as to future pricing is as good as mine, or it would seem as that of other posters.
411A posted Feb 24th on this thread:
Quote:
The big question is will oil ever be below $100 pb again???
Yes, long term projections by those in the know IE: not just traders or airline pilots
), call for oil prices to be between $65-80/barrell...short term spikes, notwithstanding.
Observation by Platts Oilgram project (long term) slightly lower.
And yes, I know many in the oil industry.
The big question is will oil ever be below $100 pb again???
Yes, long term projections by those in the know IE: not just traders or airline pilots
), call for oil prices to be between $65-80/barrell...short term spikes, notwithstanding.Observation by Platts Oilgram project (long term) slightly lower.
And yes, I know many in the oil industry.
411A posted March 2nd Middle East forum - Life at Emirates:
Quote:
If they don't then I, along with many of my friends, will be actively looking for anything else.
Good luck with that.
With oil prices heading higher (perhaps long term) there might not be much to choose from....elsewhere
If they don't then I, along with many of my friends, will be actively looking for anything else.
Good luck with that.
With oil prices heading higher (perhaps long term) there might not be much to choose from....elsewhere
The dice are definitely rolling on these projected 466,000 pilot slots.
Last edited by HOWARDinOGDEN; 3rd Mar 2011 at 21:24.
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Also if EASA passes the new FTL's it means our employers can work us an extra 100 hours p.a which means they can employ less crew without any extra salary being paid.
The recommended option would still be 900 hours per calender year, and max. 1000 per 12 consecutive calender months. This is actually MORE restrictive than the current limit of just 900 per calender year, which would make it possible to do 1200 hours in a 12 month running period.
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I have heard BA plan to recruit 500 pilots this year or into the early part of 2012, depending on their retirement pilot plans.
Not sure if this is experience guys or integrated cadets?
Not sure if this is experience guys or integrated cadets?