To state the obvious. Airlines in the so called first world are now a mature industry showing little linearity in their hiring cycles. New airlines aren't popping into existence, growth for any particular carrier is derived from general economic expansion or the poaching of someone else's revenue traffic. For pilot employment in a stagnant industry (with the exception of retirements) a gain at one carrier occurs because of losses at another. The overall number of employed pilots doesn't change and even though the music stops, the training machine continues to march on and add to the bottom of the unemployment pile where P2F can work its mischief.
Much of the anticipated growth will be in developing overseas markets. Some of the opportunities on offer will be worth investigating, many of them won't - and sooner or later the home grown talent will claim their own territory back.
And the projections are of course extrapolated from a less than lucid business model. Consider the future price of oil, a key component.
Your guess as to future pricing is as good as mine, or it would seem as that of other posters.
411A posted Feb 24th on this thread:
Quote:
The big question is will oil ever be below $100 pb again???
Yes, long term projections by those in the know IE: not just traders or airline pilots
), call for oil prices to be between $65-80/barrell...short term spikes, notwithstanding.
Observation by Platts Oilgram project (long term) slightly lower.
And yes, I know many in the oil
industry.
Nothing to worry about then. Or is there?
411A posted March 2nd Middle East forum - Life at Emirates:
Quote:
If they don't then I, along with many of my friends, will be actively looking for anything else.
Good luck with that.
With oil prices heading higher (perhaps long term) there might not be much to choose from....elsewhere
I'd call that hedging on the price of fuel.
The dice are definitely rolling on these projected 466,000 pilot slots.