I find it difficult to believe that so many people doubt that we could run a little short of pilots. This is especially true for experienced operators. Let’s look at the facts:
1) Training is extremely expensive and finding funding for flight training is nearly impossible. Major training FTO's are being approached by multiple airlines to produce an impossible number of new blood. Highest bidder wins.
2) Air Forces are shrinking at an alarming rate due to massive cut backs and the introduction of UAVs.
3) The world wide retirement age is now 65. Many carriers were 50 at one point, moved to 55/60 and now on to 65. THIS AGE CHANGE CAN’T CONTINUE
4) Some countries are facing massive retirement bubbles (USA) due to demographics.
5) The manufacturers of aircraft (today along with the FAA) are predicting massive growth in the next 10-20 years.
6) We have just gone though the largest recession this new generation of pilots may ever see.
The gulf is going to get cleaned out as soon as the North American/European major carriers start hiring en masse (this is just starting) and wages in the region could easily double. Those low-cost airlines that chose the ‘We treat our crews like !!!!’ route are going to get hit very hard as well. The demand in China/India will be staggering making experienced well trained pilots a hot commodity. The loss of traditional seniority systems and final salary pensions at established carriers will only enable pilots who would normally hang about for 30 odd years to shop their experience around to the highest bidder.
I am not saying it is going to be all roses but if you look at the hard facts it is not looking bad at all. The airlines short sightedness in the last decade is going to come back to haunt them. They are now trying to prevent shortness in supply by reducing licensing time (MPL) and working to increase FTL’s.
You can’t squeeze blood from a stone and too little too late.