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Ryanair exodus, what is the plan?

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Ryanair exodus, what is the plan?

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Old 14th Feb 2011, 15:03
  #421 (permalink)  
 
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heard today that as many as 17 guys resigned in one day recently, 5 guys ex dub now in faro had a meeting with PB regarding getting back onto 5/4 so they could get at least some time back in dublin with there families, "no sorry its not possible" was the reply, 5 guys then handed him letters of resignation, followed by PB giving the usual dribble about not being so hasty and we'll look into it for you etc, they told him that it's to late and we can't trust you. On average now 10 pilots resigning a week. 200 captains short for the summer........
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Old 14th Feb 2011, 16:01
  #422 (permalink)  
 
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Will he realize he needs some help from some externals or will maybe give more to who is inside?
D
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Old 14th Feb 2011, 18:50
  #423 (permalink)  
 
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3 captains down

I was speaking to a friend who is based in a small UK base and 3 captains have resigned (working their notice until April). I know another captain from the base who left for somewhere hotter and sandier before christmas.

But I doubt it will effect management as they dont give a F**K and besides that they are to arrogant to admit they need us.
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Old 14th Feb 2011, 19:40
  #424 (permalink)  
 
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But I doubt it will effect management as they dont give a F**K and besides that they are to arrogant to admit they need us
Omar, agreed they may well be arrogant but unless they adapt that behaviour for a less confrontational one, they will find themselves severly undercrewed and having to cancel flights which regardless of determined arrogance, will eventually lead to huge losses - MOL will have to sit up and listen then regardless - his days are now numbered.
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Old 14th Feb 2011, 19:42
  #425 (permalink)  
 
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It just doesn't add up does it... Business management will usually attempt anything to ensure a company runs efficiently and has an edge over the competition yet ryanair are haemorrhaging pilots (if what's written here is correct) and they seam determined not to do anything about it?! Why? Would they cut off their noses to spite their face?

They are about to run out of 737's too same attitude toward Boeing....

Easyjet and Flybe seam to be following suit with their crews....

Maybe the truth is Loco simply doesn't work without expansion based on cheap aircraft and pilots. One things for certain the days of cheap aircraft are long gone. Boeing won't make that mistake again.
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Old 14th Feb 2011, 19:53
  #426 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed, it doesn't add up but the management won't publicly (i.e. within company at any rate) admit that their collective attitude toward the travelling public, regulatory bodies and staff is at odds with the way things will develop over the coming months and years. As for in private, behind closed doors, they already will have been discussing the current situation regarding pilot resignations and you can be assured whilst their public stance is still the way it always has been, measures are being discussed as to how they can overcome the losses in order to mitigate any problems in the short and long-term.
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Old 14th Feb 2011, 21:38
  #427 (permalink)  
 
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Mr Horgy.
Well that's the beauty of joined-up debate. But whatever the pros and cons of direct entry captains vs direct entry FOs (and for what it's worth I think there's room for both), the point is there are just not enough cadets coming through to make the numbers work. Not by this summer, anyway.
And yes, the basing policy sometimes sucks, but this could be made more easily understood and more transparent at no cost AT ALL to the company. As for 5/3. Why? It earns the company no money, especially in the summer when pilots are maxed out. Let's get the NO COST solutions sorted at least.
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Old 14th Feb 2011, 22:21
  #428 (permalink)  
 
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I am always surprised by those who keep on trying to understand the base policy. The policy is clear: to piss off the maximum people. This is the culture; and, as written somewhere above, it pays because when you are desperately waiting for a base transfer to save your couple and your family, you will not start arguing with rostering when they ask you to fly an off day.
Of course, RYR will take corrective actions. But they will rather ground planes and loose hundreds of thousands €/£ than let see that crew pressure could make them change. Because if we could see history and evidence that if we unite we can win, it would just mean the end of the RYR model as it exists today.
The corrective actions have started. Some of these desperate guys just got calls from PB and were finally offered their home base. I wouldn't be surprised if we see massive base transfers in the next weeks.
You can say anything about RYR but not that they improvise or get trapped. Trainig 15, 20 or 30 captains a week is still possible. There will be disruption in the summer. Like every year. And they will finally make it.
Yes pessimistic analysis. Unless we take advantage of the situation.
We need 90% membership to IALPA and go into negiciation. EZY and many more did it.
Theire arrogance is ruining our lifes, our families, our passion and our health. Just to show their power and to get more money. That's enough.
Time to do something.
Millions of poor people much more exposed than us managed to free their country.
Cheers.
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Old 15th Feb 2011, 00:08
  #429 (permalink)  
 
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One things for certain the days of cheap aircraft are long gone. Boeing won't make that mistake again.
Was it a mistake? Or a hedging of bets, post 9/11? I don't think you're giving Boeing enough credit - they've been in this game longer than O'Leary. In two decades time, i've more confidence in the name 'Boeing' still being around than i do for FR.

If they gave them a nice deal, its because they needed to. Airliner production lines and skilled people cant be turned on and off like a tap. Smoothing out the peaks and troughs in demand comes at a price, but thats the price of staying in business during the bad times.

Contrast this with O'Leary's fuel price hedging...
He's a cost-cutting one trick pony, not a business genius. I admire what he's been able to pull off, in a way, and some good things have come out of it for sure, but i don't think its ultimately sustainable and i don't think FR will be looked back on fondly in the future. Unlike the achievements of Boeing.
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Old 15th Feb 2011, 09:10
  #430 (permalink)  
 
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I'm not sure they're desperate at all.

There'll always be a desperado in the ranks to suck up the Command somewhere.

Or, is there no-one left to promote?
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Old 15th Feb 2011, 10:30
  #431 (permalink)  
 
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Someone posted that RYR's final tally will now be 299a/c. A couple of years ago I'd heard 345 a/c and then 325 a/c. What is true, and is this downsizing anything to do with crewing? Are RYR in fact being able to sell any older a/c? If they ordered 345 in total where are they going if not RYR?
Also heard a fact new to me; Wizzair has the same investor as RYR and there is a gentleman's agreement not to tread on each others toes. Might explain why no RYR bases east of Berlin. Wizz have a a good few a/c on order; airbuses. Thoughts are there might be some merging in the future. Any insiders with knowledge?
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Old 15th Feb 2011, 13:18
  #432 (permalink)  
 
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Warpspeed you are right, I agree.

What I meant was Boeing won't make the mistake of selling MOL cheap airframes to have it rubbed in their face and gloated about in public.

Three organisations make the money in aviation: The big aircraft manufacturers, the airports and the Tax man.
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Old 15th Feb 2011, 14:51
  #433 (permalink)  
 
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RAT 5:

According to http://jethros.eu/fleets/fleet_listings/ryanair.htm
Ryanair have 263 aircraft in service, 52 on order for 2011 and 2012 and a further 173 options up to 2014.

Regular updates on Jethros shows that at the same time that new aircraft are delivered to Dublin from Boeing, Ryanair withdraw aircraft from use. Without mention of how they dispose of the aircraft. Although if you go to http://www.planespotters.net/Airline/index.html you will find where the historical fleet has been disposed of, which is mostly to other airlines, mostly via leasing companies+some write offs.

Without the advantage of any inside knowledge, the developing picture seems to indicate that the market for Ryanair has almost reached maturity. Any future development in new routes may require some very imaginative marketing, which may not provide the required profits nor the "advertising contributions" to make these new ventures worthwhile.
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Old 15th Feb 2011, 17:12
  #434 (permalink)  
 
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The word from PB last time he visited was a total of 299 in service when the last delivery takes place in 2012. We were supposed to have 300 but the Ciampino accident claimed one airframe. There is no downsizing, as a new aircraft arrives an old one is sold or it is added to the total.

I don't think there will be anymore, it's just not possible to get them at such a cheap price anymore and Europe isn't that big. Il wait and see what comes of it.
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Old 15th Feb 2011, 23:25
  #435 (permalink)  
 
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So do you guys think there will be a slow down in new hiring at Ryanair anytime soon? Or will the cadet churning machine keep going for a while? What do you think?
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Old 16th Feb 2011, 11:02
  #436 (permalink)  
 
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Brookfield pilots already pay for recurrent training
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Old 16th Feb 2011, 23:55
  #437 (permalink)  
 
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16024,

I agree. From the sidelines, I can't imagine how a workforce made up from cadets, AND experienced guys could ever be viewed as anything other than a good thing. You are also correct with what you say regarding crewing figures for summer.

THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH CREWS. How this situation has come about is up to individual interpretation, but a large part I would wager has been on the fact people don't have options. With BA, and Emirates starting to suck up experienced guys, FO's (and to a lesser extent, CPT) are now fed up enough to leave. Most, if not all of the FO's I know are not exactly excited by the idea of command, purely because of the upheaval and the imposition of 5/3.

I'm looking forward to 5/3 coming to TFS, ACE and LPA and the associated crewing issues they have with people having a N/A each week. Although then people go onto 4/4 and that might be even better.

Horgy
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Old 17th Feb 2011, 00:05
  #438 (permalink)  
 
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i have to agree wit you,2500 hr guys dont want upgrade which is causing headaches to PB and JD ETC and fair play to them for not being pushed into it.its gonna be funny when they try enforce the 5/3 roster(in most bases) again for the summer!!a great way to push even more guys out the door!!

any idea of how many guys/girls are in a base where they dont want to be?that would be the 1st thing they should sort out IMHO.
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Old 17th Feb 2011, 00:39
  #439 (permalink)  
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For info the TFS/LPA/ACE bases are not going 5/3.

I said no to one of these (the one I didn't apply to), they called me back few weeks later saying its staying 5/4 and no change to my current contract.....

Still said no - just in case!
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Old 17th Feb 2011, 11:46
  #440 (permalink)  
 
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@ FlyboyUK

How much do the Brookfield guys pay for recurrent? (How much how often etc - I need to know!)
Thanks
F_T
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