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Are the airlines heading for a training crunch?

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Old 19th May 2005, 16:04
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Are the airlines heading for a training crunch?

This subject came up over a group discussion about the short sighted view by some in the aviation management world about the investment in training programs by the far majority of aviation operators here in Europe (sains the few “legacy” carriers), we are talking about type training not zero-to-hero type ab-initio training.

Back before any of us could afford a type rating we generally accepted a bonding period and knew that were going to be FO’s until the old bugger in the LHS ran out of round engine stories and croaked. Scratch one off the seniority list and we had what is called progression, these airlines we joined with a long term view and it was generally a retirement job.

To elaborate we need to look at the current trends.

It is plainly clear that any “loyalty” a company held with its crew is dead as the dodo, now we see that the minimum entry requirements are a type-rating. Preferably that someone else has paid for.

If pilots move from one job to the other the are seen as a long term risk because they are not “stable” and entrenched (read as “bonded to the hilt”), third house, second wife, kids at school, you know the story. If management jump ships its called a “career move” do they have performance bonds or 6 month checks? No but they get performance bonus’s. Ever hear of a pilot that got a bonus for consistently making block time or better… No, nor have we.

So now to save a buck the airlines training departments have been cut back so far that the only way to get some one on line relatively quickly is to poach someone else, the circle begins. No type rating no job, or bonded up the kazoo and treated like dirt. Having said that there are also quite a few “type rated” but no time on type guys out there that have been deemed unsuitable, we know of several individuals who have been to just about every interview and not got the nod…. “but I paid for my rating I deserve a job”…. Sound familiar.

There’s also the case that happened in a well know operator a few years back when FO’s were being passed over for DEC’s, the FO’s basically got together and marched into the DFO’s office.
FO’s: “hey we’ve been here a few years, we’ve got 2200 hrs why aren’t we being made Captain?? DFO: How much time on type?
FO’s: 2000
DFO: Command time?
FO’s: Does ICUS count?
DFO: No
FO’s: 110
DFO: On type?
FO’s: errr…. no total.

What happens next, well people get where they thought they wanted to go and sudden realize that its not all as advertised, (see the thread in wannabes) never ending nights, long haul advanced aging, what ever the problem is people finally get jack of it and do something else. We (the discussion group) could easily put together 20 names of guys who simply got jack of it and left the industry as a whole. We are not talking about BA 55’s either, were talking about those 30-45 who’ve had a gut full.

Then here is the crunch, if you are Captain/TRE/TRI with a rating you are in demand, airlines are having lots of trouble finding suitable applicants. At the other end, some airlines are now training limited, management proposed increased utilisation can’t happen because the crews are at max already and the training departments simply don’t have capacity. Also some of those coming out of the sausage factories even with self-funded ratings are lest say short on aptitude and long on attitude.

Are we soon to face this problem? Every training department we know of has been cut to the bone, and are running at max already. There is the signs of movement in the UK, Germany is still consolidating (GEXX & DBA), LH group are starting to suck up the 300 odd Bremen Babies that have been in waiting not to mention LX. The shake out has happened in Austria, France, Switzerland, Holland & Spain, Italy is on the precipice. We can’t really comment on the Scandic countries.

Have we reached the point where the lo-co’s, big regional’s etc are going to have to invest in their own people & training departments, and maybe just maybe start to invest in keeping people?

Your comments.

Last edited by TWOTBAGS; 19th May 2005 at 16:34.
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Old 19th May 2005, 17:16
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Not wanting this to get off subject. Nothing to do with ex-RAF, We did not say that nor imply it (Shags did, where'd his post go???) we didn’t even think in that direction.

Looking for some serious answers.

Is the training monster going to raise its head?

We seriously think so.


The management style we were referring to is not necessarily the DFO type, more the outside cut and burner, take the bonus and run, leaving a smouldering heap think of what Swiss did to LTU, from a fleet of owned machines to big leases for bus’s.

Most of the ex-pilot DFO’s are actually pretty good at heart and would love to give ratings to those with a bit of promise. But like Anakin they have generally been seduced by the dark side. (that analogy came from a 9yo).

Last edited by TWOTBAGS; 19th May 2005 at 17:41.
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Old 19th May 2005, 18:04
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Twotbags,

Im afraid I cant contribute much of value to this discussion as Im just a newborn fATPL.

Interesting to know though that we're not the only ones who cant quite fathom the attitudes of the airlines to people like us who just want to give them the value of the investment we have made in ourselves. I know, I know, supply and demand.

Fingers crossed for a big shortage!
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Old 19th May 2005, 19:12
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TWOTBAGS

I suspect you're not getting many replies because you've said it all and no one disagrees!
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Old 19th May 2005, 19:38
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Training in Belgium

Fantastic! I could not find a better description of what's happening in our company (which I like besides that). There must be an end to this situation. Let's start with MOL in jail???
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Old 19th May 2005, 20:02
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twotbags

All you've said, bang on

Interested to hear if your ex-raf guy is part time or P-T
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Old 19th May 2005, 21:11
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Then here is the crunch, if you are Captain/TRE/TRI with a rating you are in demand, airlines are having lots of trouble finding suitable applicants>>>

Indeed they are, which is why all us good 'ole TriStar (ahhh, Lockheed) guys still find the welcome mat out.

Good for a few more years, me thinks.

Sadly, many of the older hands have retired from line/sim training, leaving a few companies/younger guys in the doggie do-do.

Money talks, BS walks...true as it's ever been.
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Old 20th May 2005, 02:17
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What is amazing is that even with this kind of pilot shortage, in ME, Asia & EU the airlines are still hoping that the newbees will pay for the type rating. Its scary that the newbees have a thought process that its the only way to get a real job.

The LCCs will just not invest in any thing and smaller airlines are just poacing from bigger players.

Really! why do airlines think an X air force chappie can run a business when he has done is job all his life without a so called budget or answering to share holders.
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Old 20th May 2005, 06:46
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I can only give my opinion based experience of the "organisations" I've worked for, but the solution to any shortage, be it trainers, trainees, whatever, is simple............

...........lower the standards.

That's been going on, gradually, for decades. It'll continue until the accident rate starts turning punters away.
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Old 20th May 2005, 08:20
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Are the airlines heading for a training crunch?

I wish...
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Old 20th May 2005, 14:05
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is there a pilot shortage ? I wish..
However, I never payed a rating, and never will. Period. Therefore I´ll most likely will have to stay where I am.
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Old 22nd May 2005, 15:52
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If as the airlines tell us, there is no problem, why are about 10 flights a week from 3 airlines (that I know of) being cancelled because of crew shortages?

Why are a significant number of guys being offered jobs by BA turning them down, and why are a significant number of those accepting jobs not turning up to start their conversion courses?

Something is wrong in the world at the moment.

Towtbags, you have got it all pretty much spot on, and well done for that. I would be interested to know more about what you suggest we (the Pilots) do about it. Hopefully market forces will come to play their part, but maybe we can help them to expedite their participation!

All for one, and one for all!
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Old 22nd May 2005, 16:57
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I wish the worlds pilots were all for one !
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Old 22nd May 2005, 20:15
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Since last year GF finds it difficult to find type rated pilots. Thus, since last September GF hires non- type rated FO's and provides training on A320/330 and B767.
Pilots are being bonded for 3 years after completion of line- check.

EK, Etihad and of course Qatar are forced to go the same way....

Furthermore the training center in Doha has no capacity left and the pilots fly out to Cairo for training and checks....

Time for management to cuddle with its pilot force in order to keep us.....
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Old 23rd May 2005, 04:24
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Part 2 – Myths, Realities and Truth.

I have received a few pm’s and we would like to add a few things to better explain things to some of the FNG’s.

Myth 1: Jet are harder to fly than turboprops

No, the only thing jets don’t like to do is go down and slow down, either is possible not both at the same time, generally Mr Boeing & Mr Bus have added every gizmo possible to enhance flight safety so the lowest common denominator does not ruin their reputation.
Turboprop’s fly in the weather not above it, generally from lesser capable airports, with lesser capable clock-work cockpits, with lesser trained staff and less experienced crew.

Myth 2: Well trained cadet pilots are as good a more experienced pilot when it comes to Jet conversions.

No, again. Certainly it is true that the new guys are keen, essentially young, dumb and full…ly not ready to be father’s. Single living the life, eating, sleeping, walking, talking, aviation mad and they will do anything to get into a kero burner. And yes we do mean anything.
Now look at the demographic of the other candidate a couple thousand hours turbo-prop. Self-funded and paid off the loan, only to be replaced by the new loan for the house that is accompanied by the new wife and the screaming 3 month old on 3 hourly feeds.

So put these two together on course, one willing to do anything to get a life, the other with a life/wife/baby/bills, they will both complete the course to the required standard, however the older one will be exhausted and may need a little coaxing. Give the guy a break.

He has already jumped through the hoops, has a bit of commercial experience and has flown approaches down to minima’s time and time again in an aircraft not some microsoft based overgrown arcade game.

The airline recruiters however have a different view, as they also rely on the poaching game they will pick the FNG and bond him to the hilt, and overwork the line trainers in order to get a return on investment (comical term, we know). Rather than the other guy who knows the lay of the land and will be even more disillusioned when he discovers the true calibre of the management.

Which leads us to the…….

Reality 1: No man’s land.

No man’s land is a place in aviation for those turboprop and light jet jockeys with between 2000 & 5000 hours. Be it a Texas Stovepipe, King Air, Bandit, Doorknob, Shed, Dash, Fokker, ATR or Slowtation. If you have this experience and this time you will find it harder to progress for exactly the same reason as above.

Management see you as a short term risk, not a long term bond. It will only get better when there are more jobs like in 99-00.

Reality 2: Ex- Military pilots are different to Civilian trained guys.

True. Military pilot get the best of training for few occasions and civil guys get minimal training for every occasion.

Mission.
Military: Fly from A to A, drop ordinance, don’t get shot at.
Civil: Fly from A to B to C back to B then D and maybe A, drop passengers, don’t get yelled at.

Planning.
Military: Two days, best intel, sim session. 1 hour flight, 1 landing.
Civil: 15 mins, on the net, 6 hours flight time, 4-6 landings.

Training.
Military: In the sim as much as the real thing, training for every contingency possible for each mission.
Civil: Twice a year for a few hours, doing thing that you will never do in reality (hopefully).

Maintenance:
Military: Whatever part you need we got, if not, we have several spare aircraft, your tax dollar at work.
Civil: Whatever you want we don’t got, no spare aircraft, maintained by the lowest bidder.

So yes there is a difference, a cultural difference, between that of the bureaucratic government world and the commercial reality world.

We are not having a dig at the military, we (several of us were guests at a military function over the weekend in fact) are having a go at the attitude that some (not all) bring with them to the commercial world.

Truth 1: Simulators are training devices.

The sim is a training device, some sim instructors (that’s all they do some of them) are not on the line. You fly 900 hours per annum from A to the rest of the alphabet. No simulated problems with the aircraft, just real problems with passengers/handlers/operations/slot times/fuelers/Duty times/ MELs. They fly the lurching cave all year, thinking up ways to scare the bejesus out of you and try and prove that they are better than you.

Truth 2:
Jets are NOT harder to fly than turboprops. Experience in the real world, beats X-box any day. No man’s land is badge of honour not a burden, every captain we know would take a NML candidate over a FNG any day…..its only management who don’t realise this, because they only want their performance bonus based on revenue from the training department.

Is there an answer, yes. Unfortunately united we stand and divided we fall, as long as those new to the industry are willing to self fund type ratings, airline will take a few, just to give the masses a glimmer of hope and keep the myth alive.

The cost of aviation in Europe has turned it into an elitist sport, money is becoming the lowest common denominator.

You reap what you sow.

Let the games begin.

Last edited by TWOTBAGS; 23rd May 2005 at 04:34.
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Old 23rd May 2005, 07:03
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Thumbs up

This has to be one of the best posts of the year! I have no doubt that most of us have witnessed most, if not all, of the issues you mention since things picked up in recruitment post the 911 glitch. Yes, the airlines will reap what they sow, but I suspect that the only people to really lose out will be the piloting fraternity.
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Old 23rd May 2005, 08:38
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twotbags,

just interested. are you a low / medium time prop fo who did the self improver route ??

while much of what you say is valid I'd probably correct the following (my opinion only) based on what I've seen as the guy who hired pilots for a jet airline in a previous life.

1: jets are more demanding than t-props when you consider the whole package. a/c , pax, equippment, coms, nav routes airspace management etc. but there is no difficulty converting most T-prop pilots on to them. anyone might be able to be trained to fly them but it's hard to get the entire package right.

2: from what I've seen your arguement about the self-improvers (i'm one of those) compared to the selected and sponsored students is wrong. like for like the approved course guys tend to fly better than most in the sim. they do however fall behind in the management and the flight experience side but they are areas that they improve in quickly. go through a full year with any jet operator and you'll have a good grounding.
at its most basic you said that a self improver with a family is more motivated during a type rating. well you don't have to be married to be highly motivated and to be very blunt they have been screened and selected, usually have better aptitude and possibly smarter than the average (certainly than me) and thus can cope with the Ground school better. the sim even favours them as it's basic flying and that is where they excel. they are a clean sheet and very eager. there is nothing worse than getting a guy in the sim on a type rating course who starts telling you how they 'did it' in xxx airlines and that worked better etc.....

3: Mil pilots (I'm not one) are far better trained. reducing them to people who were trained to fly to drop ordinance and go back to base is a little simplistic. To get to do that they have to be very very good and very highly trained. Like the sponsored cadet they generally are far better in the sim, have a fast learning curve and are easier for management to deal with when they're new as they're used to a command structure. If they have one failing (and it's limited to a very small proportion of them) they may show more signs of CRM type issues on their first command based on the way they have been trained.

everybody holds the training / selection process employed by the majors as a professional system. ask yourself why they go for very high cost ab-initio guy who they can screen from the get-go. or why mil guy can get fast-tracked straight onto jets. it's generally not because t-prop drivers with 2000 hours are any better or worse, it just that they might be a higher risk.

and lastly and probably least favourable in the popularity stakes every pilot underestimates the cost of training in a airline. the blunt truth is that it is easier to squeeze what you can out of the guys you have, use a mix of DEC's and upgrades. If guys are willing to pay for a TR it may be an avenue (IMHO bonding is still paying for a TR). there will always be a supply of pilots because it is a vocational career and amongst the legion of applicants you will always find some good people.

where any pinch may be felt is with rapidly growing airlines who are looking for experienced pilot who can adapt. these attract a premium and rightly so if they are good enough. some times it's safer to us DECs than a raft of new upgrades to maintain the experience base - especailly on challenging routes / aircraft.

sorry to go on a bit. all my opinion only. etc etc
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Old 23rd May 2005, 10:46
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Myself. By the listed profile… sort of but its not everything!

Self improver - yes
Ex turboprop – yes
Ex TRI – yes
Ex Chief Pilot – yes

To say anymore would be revealing.

As to the “discussion group” members include pilots present & past from DP, BY, BA, U2, QY, FR, AB, LH, HF, SQ, CX, SA, QF, DJ, VQ, KD, BR, CI, EK, GF & QR and probably a few more as well, obviously not everyone is involved in this discussion so as you can gather multiple languages, multiple inputs but we all see the same picture.

As you can imagine the wealth of experience in the group is substantial, most read these pages however rarely post. Sometimes the silence is deafening, yet sometimes things need to be said.

We are not “voices of reason” nor “uncommon sense” yet these guys are on the similar tac.

I will add one thing though if someone may be able to help a comrade who is in no mans land pm me and message will be passed.

Back to topic,

Is there a training crunch, economies are picking up, investment in airport infrastructure is at an all time high, (sains the early 70’s).

Predictions of massive increases in the numbers of travellers particularly from east asia.

Is it time to by shares in CAE & Atheon? (if you could) Because the crunch is coming

Your comments.
.
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Old 23rd May 2005, 11:46
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Have you noticed in the ryanair ad in last flight international that type rated pilots can now send their CV via email without having to pay 50£? I think this is a very positive sign! may be in a few months self funding type rating will stop?
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Old 23rd May 2005, 15:23
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Perhaps the free market is showing our wonder boy that you can screw pilots only so much until they stop coming in. MOL will never do anything that is positive for the pilots. Keep in mind that to him, an FO is NOT a pilot.


TWOTBAGS, awesome post!
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