Is swiss next?
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From: europe
Is swiss next?
When I told Aero LLoyd news to friends in swiss, they think they may be the next in line. Isnt this scary, I thought we are in recovery phase. Looks like danger is not over.My my, flying job is no longer has job security.
Paxing All Over The World
Joined: May 2001
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From: Hertfordshire, UK.
The 'new' Swiss does appear to be hanging by a thread, let us hope that it does not become a self-fulfilling event. If people think it's going to go then they wont book and so it slides down the chute ...
However, across the next ten years, more than one name will go. Whether they are merged/taken over/close, there are more airlines in Europe than the market will stand. Don't forget the difficulties of the German social and financial structure. This has been building for years and is now coming to the surface. Well, it's been on the surface for years but no one wanted to talk about it ...
I don't know who's going next but someone will.
However, across the next ten years, more than one name will go. Whether they are merged/taken over/close, there are more airlines in Europe than the market will stand. Don't forget the difficulties of the German social and financial structure. This has been building for years and is now coming to the surface. Well, it's been on the surface for years but no one wanted to talk about it ...
I don't know who's going next but someone will.
Joined: Jun 2003
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From: Arroyo
According to an unconfirmed word spread by insiders, Swiss CE0 André Dosé met today with the Swiss government (all 7 buddies moving their big heads to and fro under a huge tepee in Bern) to implore them to grant Swiss International Air Lines a Letter-of-comfort.
He told Reuters ten days ago that the Half-a-billion Swiss Francs credit facilty Swiss is yaerning for was «about to be signed». It' hasn't been yet the case. Financial experts say it would at least take four to six weeks to bundle that facility, once the parliament would ok the letter of comfort, a financially binding document in case of bankruptcy (Swiss Tax Payers already had to pour more than a billion in Swiss to allow it to start last year).
Since last Sunday a the big success of the far-right party SVP in the last national parliamentary election made it less than ever likely the parliament would grant that Letter of Comfort.
In the meantime, the new price structure introduced last summer on the Swiss continental network has achieved better SLF, but not up to Swiss expectation. In an interview to the Basler Zeitung on Oct. 25th, the Swiss Sales & Marketing chief did not answer the question whether this new pricing policy brought a relief to the company. Instead of answering, he explained that the September figures were not yet available...
If Swiss has such a poor yield management, which cannot deliver a reliable estimate of the ticket's earnings three weeks after the month closing, no doubt this airline will go down the drain.
Another indication for the chaotic management of this would-be «civilized» airline: 3 days from the expiry of their insurance certificates some A/C are still not provided with the new ones. Up to the pilot to check if he is allowed to fly this A/C!
Might be the reason for Dosé asking for charity in Bern without waiting for the next parliament session
He told Reuters ten days ago that the Half-a-billion Swiss Francs credit facilty Swiss is yaerning for was «about to be signed». It' hasn't been yet the case. Financial experts say it would at least take four to six weeks to bundle that facility, once the parliament would ok the letter of comfort, a financially binding document in case of bankruptcy (Swiss Tax Payers already had to pour more than a billion in Swiss to allow it to start last year).
Since last Sunday a the big success of the far-right party SVP in the last national parliamentary election made it less than ever likely the parliament would grant that Letter of Comfort.
In the meantime, the new price structure introduced last summer on the Swiss continental network has achieved better SLF, but not up to Swiss expectation. In an interview to the Basler Zeitung on Oct. 25th, the Swiss Sales & Marketing chief did not answer the question whether this new pricing policy brought a relief to the company. Instead of answering, he explained that the September figures were not yet available...
If Swiss has such a poor yield management, which cannot deliver a reliable estimate of the ticket's earnings three weeks after the month closing, no doubt this airline will go down the drain.
Another indication for the chaotic management of this would-be «civilized» airline: 3 days from the expiry of their insurance certificates some A/C are still not provided with the new ones. Up to the pilot to check if he is allowed to fly this A/C!
Might be the reason for Dosé asking for charity in Bern without waiting for the next parliament session
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Joined: Oct 2000
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From: europe
LH seems to have lost interest and Ba is puting stricter conditions for codeshare.
Did the last redundant has effected only ex-crossair? I would have thought other way around. Romans also did strange things before the fall of empire.
Did the last redundant has effected only ex-crossair? I would have thought other way around. Romans also did strange things before the fall of empire.
Joined: Jun 2003
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From: Arroyo
BA will certainly put more pressure starting from the next STT, if Swiss still exists at that point (line of credit still pending). The most obvious redundancy exists on Far-East routes. Some very profitable destinations in Africa were already given up by Swiss before the agreement with BA was known, just as if Swiss was getting ready for it.
In the meantime, the Swiss code-share agreement with BA partner and merger candidate Iberia led to a very telling recrutment add published last week both in the Swiss German and Swiss French parts of the country: Iberia is seeking regional pilots based in Switzerland (GVA and ZRH)!
I do not want to rush the conclusion but I do see a connection with the fact that Swiss is now renegociating its Embraer orders. Their financing is much to expensive, the E-170 is not holding its promises (certification coming in November, but performances below and weight beyond what the former Crossair ordered) and above all Swiss doesn't need those A/C.
The recruting of Embraer pilots by Swiss on a short term basis (November 03 to March 04) over a broker do match a downsizing of the Embraer orders. Paradoxically, Swiss is firing now 526 regional pilots and argues that the rest has to undergo a new training to fly what is left in the fleet (Bae-146 and E-145). It has indeed over 100 pilots now (of a total of 450) to fly six Saab 2000! But it's only a part of the truth.
The other part is that Swiss will need less Embraer pilots starting from the STT thanks to the Iberia Code-Share Agreement. It's one of the effect of BA pressure on Swiss overcapacities. Might be sound for the future of a reasonnably sized Swiss Airline. Might also be too late.
In the meantime, the Swiss code-share agreement with BA partner and merger candidate Iberia led to a very telling recrutment add published last week both in the Swiss German and Swiss French parts of the country: Iberia is seeking regional pilots based in Switzerland (GVA and ZRH)!
I do not want to rush the conclusion but I do see a connection with the fact that Swiss is now renegociating its Embraer orders. Their financing is much to expensive, the E-170 is not holding its promises (certification coming in November, but performances below and weight beyond what the former Crossair ordered) and above all Swiss doesn't need those A/C.
The recruting of Embraer pilots by Swiss on a short term basis (November 03 to March 04) over a broker do match a downsizing of the Embraer orders. Paradoxically, Swiss is firing now 526 regional pilots and argues that the rest has to undergo a new training to fly what is left in the fleet (Bae-146 and E-145). It has indeed over 100 pilots now (of a total of 450) to fly six Saab 2000! But it's only a part of the truth.
The other part is that Swiss will need less Embraer pilots starting from the STT thanks to the Iberia Code-Share Agreement. It's one of the effect of BA pressure on Swiss overcapacities. Might be sound for the future of a reasonnably sized Swiss Airline. Might also be too late.
Joined: Apr 1999
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From: Aldebaran
swiss...
finalschecks,i sent you an PM..check that out!
anyone interested...there is a "Talkshow"with A.Dose on November 7th in Gelterkinden,BL(Switzerland)...check out the link
http://www.4460.ch/marabu/
The Q&A show starts at 2030 local time...
anyone interested...there is a "Talkshow"with A.Dose on November 7th in Gelterkinden,BL(Switzerland)...check out the link
http://www.4460.ch/marabu/
The Q&A show starts at 2030 local time...
Joined: Dec 2001
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From: Embedded in a pocket of resistance
Is Swiss next?
BTW, where are all those shiny new Airbus A340´s?
So far only one is flying for Swiss and that one seems to have a slight problem meeting the required climb performance for runway 34 in ZRH at night. I guess the "Golden Swissair Boys" overlooked a minor detail (or made a small calculating error) when purchasing their newest toy.
Are ´Airbus parts supply problems´ really the cause of the slower delivery rate, or is the shortage of cash the main reason?
So far only one is flying for Swiss and that one seems to have a slight problem meeting the required climb performance for runway 34 in ZRH at night. I guess the "Golden Swissair Boys" overlooked a minor detail (or made a small calculating error) when purchasing their newest toy.
Are ´Airbus parts supply problems´ really the cause of the slower delivery rate, or is the shortage of cash the main reason?
Joined: Jun 2003
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From: Arroyo
Swiss confirmed that it is missing 50 to 60 Embraer and Avro's pilots from November to March after firing 526 of its regional fleet. Swiss wanted to get ride of them all as soon as october, postponed to november, but did not take into consideration a progressive lay-off until next spring. The company entered into an agreement for part-time employment, but it isn't enough to smothen the situation.
As a result, out of the remaining 460 pilots:
- 85 fly MD-80s,
- around 100 fly Saab 2000, while Swiss keeps only 6 A/C of this typ flying.
It means that there are only 275 pilots to fly the remaining 18 Bae-146 and 18 E-145. MD-80s and Saab pilots have now to be retrained to fly Bae-146 and E-145, a process that will last until March-April 04.
In the meantime, 50 to 60 pilots have to be recruited over a broker. Otherwise they would be submitted to seniority rules and other agreements between the union Swiss Pilots and the company. Would be even more messy than it already is.
In short, anyone willing to enjoy skiing holidays in Switzerland while keeping the Swiss regional fleet flying before the company gets bankrupt should apply.
But do not ask where to send your CVs: the current broker choosen by Swiss has currently no licence to hire anyone, not even the funds to garantee the contracts!
Sent your complaint for mismanagement directly to Swiss. They need more papers of this kind to keep warm in winter
As a result, out of the remaining 460 pilots:
- 85 fly MD-80s,
- around 100 fly Saab 2000, while Swiss keeps only 6 A/C of this typ flying.
It means that there are only 275 pilots to fly the remaining 18 Bae-146 and 18 E-145. MD-80s and Saab pilots have now to be retrained to fly Bae-146 and E-145, a process that will last until March-April 04.
In the meantime, 50 to 60 pilots have to be recruited over a broker. Otherwise they would be submitted to seniority rules and other agreements between the union Swiss Pilots and the company. Would be even more messy than it already is.
In short, anyone willing to enjoy skiing holidays in Switzerland while keeping the Swiss regional fleet flying before the company gets bankrupt should apply.
But do not ask where to send your CVs: the current broker choosen by Swiss has currently no licence to hire anyone, not even the funds to garantee the contracts!
Sent your complaint for mismanagement directly to Swiss. They need more papers of this kind to keep warm in winter
Joined: Oct 2001
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From: Basel CH
- around 100 fly Saab 2000, while Swiss keeps only 6 A/C of this typ flying
So now you have 11 aircraft with roughly 5 co-pilots and 5 captains per aircraft. Sounds normal to me.
Joined: Aug 2002
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From: Switzerland, Singapore
Correct - SB20 driver.
For the others: Their information is half correct. There were much less dismissals than previous expected, the figure went down to about 300, and not 500. The reason is according rumour the consultant company which calculated a crew factor of 7 (even 10 would be not enough because the high training rate).
You also have to add the some 30 pilots who will be trained on the Airbus 320 Swiss Sun - which was granted to the Ex-Crx after the last war between the unions.
Also A318 would have to be flown by Ex-Crx, at least according to the contract.
There are 3 A340 now on the flight line.
The rest is correct.
For the others: Their information is half correct. There were much less dismissals than previous expected, the figure went down to about 300, and not 500. The reason is according rumour the consultant company which calculated a crew factor of 7 (even 10 would be not enough because the high training rate).
You also have to add the some 30 pilots who will be trained on the Airbus 320 Swiss Sun - which was granted to the Ex-Crx after the last war between the unions.
Also A318 would have to be flown by Ex-Crx, at least according to the contract.
There are 3 A340 now on the flight line.
The rest is correct.
Joined: Jun 2003
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From: Arroyo
Dear Dani and Saab Driver,
If, thanks to the wet-lease, the staffing «seems normal» and if, thanks to a reduction from 500 to 300 lay-off, Swiss has everything under control, then please explain me why the company is desperately seeking 50 to 60 pilots (up to 90 according to the Swiss Pilots Association) from November to March?
I'd bet the staff cutting goes beyond the real restructuration need, so Swiss can get ride of the 50 to 60 «mercenaries» in Spring, when it comes to a further shrinking of the continental network. No fees, no hasle and the share holders are happy.
Dani wrote:
[quote]: Also A318 would have to be flown by Ex-Crx, at least according to the contract. [quote]
Correct until Oct. 05. Since A318 are most unlikely to fly under Swiss colors before Oct. 05, it makes the garantee offered to the Swiss Pilots (ex-CRX) void.
There also a number of reasons speaking against the A318. Not the least: Swiss cannot afford them now. Not even as a consideration for renegociating or cancelling some of the Embraer orders.
It's much more likely that the Embraer deal will be downsized in view of a further shrinking of the continental network in Spring. This is at least the latest and more credible explanation I heard today.
If, thanks to the wet-lease, the staffing «seems normal» and if, thanks to a reduction from 500 to 300 lay-off, Swiss has everything under control, then please explain me why the company is desperately seeking 50 to 60 pilots (up to 90 according to the Swiss Pilots Association) from November to March?
I'd bet the staff cutting goes beyond the real restructuration need, so Swiss can get ride of the 50 to 60 «mercenaries» in Spring, when it comes to a further shrinking of the continental network. No fees, no hasle and the share holders are happy.
Dani wrote:
[quote]: Also A318 would have to be flown by Ex-Crx, at least according to the contract. [quote]
Correct until Oct. 05. Since A318 are most unlikely to fly under Swiss colors before Oct. 05, it makes the garantee offered to the Swiss Pilots (ex-CRX) void.
There also a number of reasons speaking against the A318. Not the least: Swiss cannot afford them now. Not even as a consideration for renegociating or cancelling some of the Embraer orders.
It's much more likely that the Embraer deal will be downsized in view of a further shrinking of the continental network in Spring. This is at least the latest and more credible explanation I heard today.
Joined: Aug 2002
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From: Switzerland, Singapore
Ettore, the problem is that they dismissed too many pilots. It was most certainly a political issue - the number on Ex-Crx had to be greater than on the Ex-Swr side (so Ex-Swr numbers are greater in 2005 with a possible merger of the union or in a unified voting). Since most of the dismissed pilots are on the EM4 and Saab fleet cut by about 300%, they need more pilots. Of course unions would never agree to take others than Ex-Swiss, they ask dismissed pilots to stay half a year longer. And because Swiss fears to create any "long term temporary" employments, they rehire the already fired pilots via broker with fixed duration. Of course the union proposed other ways to solve the problem...
With the A318 issued you are right, but it will be very difficult again to favour Ex-Swr pilots in 2005: They will have to fire again the Ex-Crx (the A318 would replace Avro RJs) and rehire again Ex-Swr to put them on the A318. But everything is possible. If they would cancel all EM7/9 and order A318, it would be again very difficult to operate profitable, so Swiss would hardly see 2005.
With the A318 issued you are right, but it will be very difficult again to favour Ex-Swr pilots in 2005: They will have to fire again the Ex-Crx (the A318 would replace Avro RJs) and rehire again Ex-Swr to put them on the A318. But everything is possible. If they would cancel all EM7/9 and order A318, it would be again very difficult to operate profitable, so Swiss would hardly see 2005.
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From: Embedded in a pocket of resistance
Latest rumour is that Swiss will probably get the Letter of Comfort from the Swiss government now that the elections are over, and thus pave the way for the desperately needed 450 million Sfr loan.
Joined: Jun 2003
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From: Arroyo
Political analysts in Switzerland say it is most unlikely that the governement would call an extraodinary session to decide upon such a Letter of Comfort for Swiss until the new governement be elected on Dec. 10th.
The far-right party SVP/UDC won the latest parliamentary election and has been a strong critic of any subsidy to Swiss. Other parties would fear supporting a Letter of Comfort that would fuel the SVP/UDC line which targets at Swiss tax payers who were not asked to pour more than a billion Swiss francs in the new airline less than two years ago.
A Letter of Comfort would only be accepted by the banks if it is financially binding. That is why the parliament has to vote on the issue.
A very conservative estimate of Swiss cash-drain put it now at a million Swiss francs per day, compared to 3,8 p.d. last Spring.
It means that Swiss has burned more than the half of its capital (even after the share nominal value has been reduced to SFr. 32.-).
According to the law, in such an event Swiss should inform a judge, call for an extraodinary meeting of its shareholders and propose them restructuring measures.
But has you may know, and this to comfort the optimistic rumor you heard, there is a long way from the law books to their execution as well as a huge divide between what politicians say before and after an election...
The far-right party SVP/UDC won the latest parliamentary election and has been a strong critic of any subsidy to Swiss. Other parties would fear supporting a Letter of Comfort that would fuel the SVP/UDC line which targets at Swiss tax payers who were not asked to pour more than a billion Swiss francs in the new airline less than two years ago.
A Letter of Comfort would only be accepted by the banks if it is financially binding. That is why the parliament has to vote on the issue.
A very conservative estimate of Swiss cash-drain put it now at a million Swiss francs per day, compared to 3,8 p.d. last Spring.
It means that Swiss has burned more than the half of its capital (even after the share nominal value has been reduced to SFr. 32.-).
According to the law, in such an event Swiss should inform a judge, call for an extraodinary meeting of its shareholders and propose them restructuring measures.
But has you may know, and this to comfort the optimistic rumor you heard, there is a long way from the law books to their execution as well as a huge divide between what politicians say before and after an election...
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 320
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From: Arroyo
Swiss officialy confirmed today it's renegociating the E-170 orders, trying to postpone them to 2005.
My understanding is that Swiss cannot pay if the delivery starts in 2004.
Swiss also depicted the english version of the Reuters interview of Swiss CEO Andre Dose saying the credit facility was about to be signed by the banks as "too optimistic".
It's all but convincing. My feeling, supported by a number of people I talked to in the past two weeks, including some investors in Swiss Airbus financing, is that Swiss is in deep financial trouble.
Let's hope the best for X-Mas
My understanding is that Swiss cannot pay if the delivery starts in 2004.
Swiss also depicted the english version of the Reuters interview of Swiss CEO Andre Dose saying the credit facility was about to be signed by the banks as "too optimistic".
It's all but convincing. My feeling, supported by a number of people I talked to in the past two weeks, including some investors in Swiss Airbus financing, is that Swiss is in deep financial trouble.
Let's hope the best for X-Mas
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Joined: Oct 2000
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From: europe
I am not surprised to see swiss going that direction, they meet all the requirements for bellyup: reason being , 1:their model of doing business in this changing inviroments, 2:quality and qualification of managers top to bottom.Every Tom,Dick and Harry can not run an airline, those old days are gone!!!
Last edited by middlepath; 5th November 2003 at 14:48.
