AF 447 Thread No. 8
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: somewhere
Posts: 451
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Final report announcement.
BEA press release 30/05/2012:
The BEA will publish the Final Report of the safety investigation on Thursday, 5 July, 2012 and at the same time will hold a press briefing.
The BEA will publish the Final Report of the safety investigation on Thursday, 5 July, 2012 and at the same time will hold a press briefing.
Last edited by A33Zab; 31st May 2012 at 11:37.
Originally Posted by Retired F4
You sure did notice, that we are discussing the "falling" here in this thread.
Originally Posted by Garage Years
I have sat back and read the last umpteen posts and it seems there are two camps, both polarized in position - Airbus fans and Airbus not-fans.
Originally Posted by Lonewolf 50
You left out a critical piece of the answer to that question: they practice flying so they know how the aircraft works, in all modes. That means you need to experience what happens near the edges, in a controlled environment. Doing is a critical part of training!
Actual flying is a skill susceptible to rust, unless all you do is monitor what the robot does for you.
Actual flying is a skill susceptible to rust, unless all you do is monitor what the robot does for you.
Originally Posted by Jorge Chávez
¡Arriba, siempre arriba!
Anyway, without the benefit of the modern technology, medicine and psychology, eighty years ago there was a fine fellow who understood what it takes to be a pilot and that has not changed ever since or is likely to change soon:
Originally Posted by capt Ross
Anyone can do the job when things are going right. In this business we play for keeps.
Originally Posted by BEA, interim report 2
The variations in altitude stayed within a range of more or less one thousand
feet. Five cases of a voluntary descent were observed, of which one was of
3,500 feet. These descents followed a stall warning;
(...)
Nine cases of triggering of the stall warning were observed.
(...)
The stall warning triggers when the angle of attack passes a variable threshold
value. All of these warnings are explicable by the fact that the airplane is in
alternate law at cruise mach and in turbulent zones. Only one case of triggering
was caused by clear inputs on the controls.
feet. Five cases of a voluntary descent were observed, of which one was of
3,500 feet. These descents followed a stall warning;
(...)
Nine cases of triggering of the stall warning were observed.
(...)
The stall warning triggers when the angle of attack passes a variable threshold
value. All of these warnings are explicable by the fact that the airplane is in
alternate law at cruise mach and in turbulent zones. Only one case of triggering
was caused by clear inputs on the controls.
Originally Posted by jimjim1
I have the idea that the PM had a very good idea what was going on but for whatever reason he was content to watch as the pilot flying manoeuvered both of them to their deaths. + 100's of others of course.
Originally Posted by PJ2
With 2900+ hrs TT and 807hrs in the A340/A330, (216hr on type), the PF almost certainly will not have experienced a significant failure with full application of adrenaline. Many will go an entire career without it, so highly-successful are the historical and present technological solutions to the safety of flight.
Originally Posted by PJ2
We cannot give a course in "More Experience".
Originally Posted by Old Cartusian
Any pilot needs to be aware of all the factors that might limit his/her performance and how to mitigate them as much as possible.
Originally Posted by Machinbird
The newer pilots have few opportunities to hand fly their aircraft and operate mostly supervising the navigation computers of their aircraft and communicating with ATC, the second and third legs of the Aviate, Navigate, Communicate priority mandate. Why should they be comfortable stepping into the Aviate role when situation or system failures demand it?
There are far more newbies doing the job right than wrong, but the situations when they helped turn occurrence to non-event make it only to internal safety bulletins and are not discussed on PPRuNE. Unlike AF447.
Originally Posted by Grizzled
We are all partisans.
Originally Posted by PJ2
If this phenomenon isn’t understood for whatit is, both politics and the law will continue the trend to find out who to blame and then crucify individuals at the pointy end.
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Germany
Age: 67
Posts: 1,777
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Hi,
Clandestino
This is not a general truth
The ancient and contemporary history of the world has shown several times the opposite
Check also the extreme ...
Panurge - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Clandestino
Perish the thought, it is completely unrealistic to expect any human being to be allowed to be meekly taken to slaughter, especially as means to prevent it were at hand.
The ancient and contemporary history of the world has shown several times the opposite
Check also the extreme ...
Panurge - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Last edited by jcjeant; 31st May 2012 at 14:23.
Lyman;
We find common ground in your views,
...which, rather poetically I think, states very well the blunt realities of the present economic crisis which, essentially though not exclusively through the absence of regulatory oversight, overtook the United States, not for the first time, in 2008 and is now overtaking Europe, (for different, though equally disastrous reasons).
The term "neoliberal" as described in Wiki provides some understanding of why this notion of a political economy is important to understand. As grizz observed, this may have the appearance of thread-drift but it is absolutely central to most issues which have raised risk in aviation. It's just that most primary causes of aviation accidents, (mechanical/technical, weather, communications, ATC, navigation, mid-air) have been resolved and as those who do this work know, HF is now primary and far more complex and seemingly inexact, (and therefore difficult to hold the attention of CEOs focussed on marketing, costs and strategic planning while fiscally staying alive and keeping investors content).
Those whose job it is to formally brag about safety records have a pleasant task these days because of the present excellent record but an abiding graceful reserve in such pronouncements is missing - they read more like marketing assurances than quiet statements of confident fact. Those who actually do the work know that bragging about safety is the first mistake; - just do it, because bragging satisfies, and disarms caution.
My frustrations and even some overhanging anger over institutionalized irresponsibility are simple and certainly aren't unique: What do we do to in aviation to erect protective shields in the short term, and turn this around in the long term?
Believing its all going to h. in a handbasket is the wrong way to think about these trends - it isn't even close to falling apart but relief from the belief is no reason for comfort. The character of accidents has been changing - like Fukushima, Challenger/Columbia, perhaps like the RR engine explosion on QF32, we might first call these "economic accidents" because of their fundamentally systemic nature which have origins in not in technical principles but in economics where sometimes there is a scent of parsimony and greed. We know that where the principles of finance rule, the notion of "inconvenient information" has currency and that seems tolerable until accidents occur and the pilots, not the organization's CEO and senior executives, are the 50,000A fuse.
The psychology of "not listening", or of "dismissal" is an under-researched area. Why, when even outsiders would understand, are the cautions of such experts as named here, ignored in favour of finance? What makes those in charge believe they are acting in the best interests of their organization when they ignore the observations of experts. This is the story of Fukushima and we see the results today...an industry destroyed, not because it is unsafe but because it was rendered unsafe by a psychology of diffidence towards "nay-sayers" on the one hand and of "can-do" on the other. But for a protected diesel generator, there goes Japan. Why?
These are economic, social, psychological origins, not merely technical or mechanical; - analyzing a fatal aircraft accident in such terms has been the province of a few writers, (Perrow, Reason, Dekker, etc) but do the CEOs, the Boards, even the regulators comprehend the shift such that corporate and public governance behaviours change? I don't think so, because our society excuses corporate error (vice human error) and the law protects those not directly involved, preferring "simpler solutions".
None of this is new or particularly difficult to understand. What is difficult to understand is the unwillingness to address the worst outcomes of a neoliberal economy in high-risk enterprises. That's what Feynman meant when he said politics can't fool nature*, (but we can add, politics fools us...all the time!).
*For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.
PJ2. Thank you, my friend, it is most welcome to find common ground.
Balance.
Equilibrium is the enemy of the entrepreneur, and in service to his own, and the culture of his clients and investors, the goals are set.
Action impels interest. Interest compels venture. Success breeds competition, and great success breeds ruinous competition. In the ashes of the ruins of failed schemes, survivors merge, freeze out competition, create their own credo and tacit co-operation, to create a stasis. Unsatisfying and not profitable, the goal shifts from value and service to survival, and it is these instincts that create danger. Success long gone, survival makes animals of men, and liars of the shepherds.
BEA will do nothing out of the ordinary, save to "maintain the status quo"
The document will be pure joy to dissect. In its language will be the compromise discussion of what I have just written. The industry is failing.
White knuckles used to have no basis in reality...
Equilibrium is the enemy of the entrepreneur, and in service to his own, and the culture of his clients and investors, the goals are set.
Action impels interest. Interest compels venture. Success breeds competition, and great success breeds ruinous competition. In the ashes of the ruins of failed schemes, survivors merge, freeze out competition, create their own credo and tacit co-operation, to create a stasis. Unsatisfying and not profitable, the goal shifts from value and service to survival, and it is these instincts that create danger. Success long gone, survival makes animals of men, and liars of the shepherds.
BEA will do nothing out of the ordinary, save to "maintain the status quo"
The document will be pure joy to dissect. In its language will be the compromise discussion of what I have just written. The industry is failing.
White knuckles used to have no basis in reality...
The term "neoliberal" as described in Wiki provides some understanding of why this notion of a political economy is important to understand. As grizz observed, this may have the appearance of thread-drift but it is absolutely central to most issues which have raised risk in aviation. It's just that most primary causes of aviation accidents, (mechanical/technical, weather, communications, ATC, navigation, mid-air) have been resolved and as those who do this work know, HF is now primary and far more complex and seemingly inexact, (and therefore difficult to hold the attention of CEOs focussed on marketing, costs and strategic planning while fiscally staying alive and keeping investors content).
Those whose job it is to formally brag about safety records have a pleasant task these days because of the present excellent record but an abiding graceful reserve in such pronouncements is missing - they read more like marketing assurances than quiet statements of confident fact. Those who actually do the work know that bragging about safety is the first mistake; - just do it, because bragging satisfies, and disarms caution.
My frustrations and even some overhanging anger over institutionalized irresponsibility are simple and certainly aren't unique: What do we do to in aviation to erect protective shields in the short term, and turn this around in the long term?
Believing its all going to h. in a handbasket is the wrong way to think about these trends - it isn't even close to falling apart but relief from the belief is no reason for comfort. The character of accidents has been changing - like Fukushima, Challenger/Columbia, perhaps like the RR engine explosion on QF32, we might first call these "economic accidents" because of their fundamentally systemic nature which have origins in not in technical principles but in economics where sometimes there is a scent of parsimony and greed. We know that where the principles of finance rule, the notion of "inconvenient information" has currency and that seems tolerable until accidents occur and the pilots, not the organization's CEO and senior executives, are the 50,000A fuse.
The psychology of "not listening", or of "dismissal" is an under-researched area. Why, when even outsiders would understand, are the cautions of such experts as named here, ignored in favour of finance? What makes those in charge believe they are acting in the best interests of their organization when they ignore the observations of experts. This is the story of Fukushima and we see the results today...an industry destroyed, not because it is unsafe but because it was rendered unsafe by a psychology of diffidence towards "nay-sayers" on the one hand and of "can-do" on the other. But for a protected diesel generator, there goes Japan. Why?
These are economic, social, psychological origins, not merely technical or mechanical; - analyzing a fatal aircraft accident in such terms has been the province of a few writers, (Perrow, Reason, Dekker, etc) but do the CEOs, the Boards, even the regulators comprehend the shift such that corporate and public governance behaviours change? I don't think so, because our society excuses corporate error (vice human error) and the law protects those not directly involved, preferring "simpler solutions".
None of this is new or particularly difficult to understand. What is difficult to understand is the unwillingness to address the worst outcomes of a neoliberal economy in high-risk enterprises. That's what Feynman meant when he said politics can't fool nature*, (but we can add, politics fools us...all the time!).
*For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.
- Rogers' Commission Report into the Challenger Crash Appendix F - Personal Observations on Reliability of Shuttle (June 1986) Full Report
Quote RF4:
It´s not a question to stay inside the envelope, it´s a question how to do that
Quote Clandestino
Tens of thousands pilots do it every day. Staying inside envelope we call "flying", excursions are called "falling".
It´s not a question to stay inside the envelope, it´s a question how to do that
Quote Clandestino
Tens of thousands pilots do it every day. Staying inside envelope we call "flying", excursions are called "falling".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retired F4
You sure did notice, that we are discussing the "falling" here in this thread.
Originally Posted by Retired F4
You sure did notice, that we are discussing the "falling" here in this thread.
Clandestino
So underneath all this talk about FBW modes, alerting systems, flightdeck ergonomics, way we did it on tactical fighters, French politics and spectacularly flawed hypotheses leading to absurd conclusions there is actually discussion about "the falling"? Forgive me for not having the patience to dig it out under all the rubble and being left with the impression "the falling" is the elephant in the room of this thread.
So underneath all this talk about FBW modes, alerting systems, flightdeck ergonomics, way we did it on tactical fighters, French politics and spectacularly flawed hypotheses leading to absurd conclusions there is actually discussion about "the falling"? Forgive me for not having the patience to dig it out under all the rubble and being left with the impression "the falling" is the elephant in the room of this thread.
I`m lost comletely there what you want to tell me.
Most everything of the rest of your elaborate post is pretty much spot on, and the final report will hopefully shed some light on some points discussed here.
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 3,093
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Just a quick de-lurk to say that after eight threads and all that quibbling, I think Clandestino and PJ2 just nailed it.
I've had "This can't be happening..." reactions to traumatic events that lasted far longer than they had between the onset of UAS and impact with the sea. I'm sure that's what you were getting at, though. Good work you guys!
I've had "This can't be happening..." reactions to traumatic events that lasted far longer than they had between the onset of UAS and impact with the sea. I'm sure that's what you were getting at, though. Good work you guys!
Last edited by DozyWannabe; 31st May 2012 at 19:22.
Clandestino: minor point, but I was not just referring to smootheness on the sidestick. Scan and knowing what procedures to apply are better improved by repetition, eh?
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Grassy Valley
Posts: 2,074
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
fmpov, that won't hold water. Unless PNF has death wish, he is acting quite satisfied that although not to his "liking", PF is sufficiently aviating that no takeover is required, and he'll "wait" til the Captain returns to sort out the loss of speeds.
Clandestino and Dozy are banking heavily on two pilots completely losing the ship to Stall, with nary a whimper. I don't believe it. To this day, I remain convinced something is missing from the explanation. Or something is missing from what we know. Or something important was missing from the displays, sufficient to fool these two into jeopardy.
Clearly, from the other thread, altitude awareness has fallen away before, I am aware of that.
Clandestino and Dozy are banking heavily on two pilots completely losing the ship to Stall, with nary a whimper. I don't believe it. To this day, I remain convinced something is missing from the explanation. Or something is missing from what we know. Or something important was missing from the displays, sufficient to fool these two into jeopardy.
Clearly, from the other thread, altitude awareness has fallen away before, I am aware of that.
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Grassy Valley
Posts: 2,074
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The Swiss cheese thing is a device, and in a way, deceptive. Why? As you say, it accommodates both poles, hence can be utilized by all, and suffers thereby...
Spread the responsibility? Whose slice is being gored? Your slice is obviously larger than my slice, etc. it is a follow on to a valid perspective, the "cascade".
It is a discussion shortener, a ruse.
There is a beginning, the technical term is "procuring cause", without which the crash cannot happen: the goose who turns left instead of staying straight, into the inlet, the lightning strike that chooses the antenna instead of the Radome, and the H kind, the vent that lines up with fuel port, the skin that isn't thick enough to last through dozens of pressure cycles, the Captain who rolls down a blind runway into the nose of an opposing a/c, because he is full of himself instead of caution, etc.....
Let me offer a procuring cause for 447.
At the moment of PF taking manual control, what did he see or sense that made him start the climb.... Postulates? Nothing, he just screwed up? His FD showed low, and rolled off right? He hadn't heard the Stall warn yet, so we can eliminate a rote response to approach to Stall, etc.....etc....
A metaphor, and subject to the observation of the perceiver.....
Spread the responsibility? Whose slice is being gored? Your slice is obviously larger than my slice, etc. it is a follow on to a valid perspective, the "cascade".
It is a discussion shortener, a ruse.
There is a beginning, the technical term is "procuring cause", without which the crash cannot happen: the goose who turns left instead of staying straight, into the inlet, the lightning strike that chooses the antenna instead of the Radome, and the H kind, the vent that lines up with fuel port, the skin that isn't thick enough to last through dozens of pressure cycles, the Captain who rolls down a blind runway into the nose of an opposing a/c, because he is full of himself instead of caution, etc.....
Let me offer a procuring cause for 447.
At the moment of PF taking manual control, what did he see or sense that made him start the climb.... Postulates? Nothing, he just screwed up? His FD showed low, and rolled off right? He hadn't heard the Stall warn yet, so we can eliminate a rote response to approach to Stall, etc.....etc....
A metaphor, and subject to the observation of the perceiver.....
Last edited by Lyman; 31st May 2012 at 22:29.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Cambridge UK
Posts: 192
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Keeping the pilots in the loop?
Please forgive a non-pilot commenting on pilot related matters, but there do seem to be s/w and human-machine-interface issues involved.
Current “fault-tolerant” systems work splendidly for the infrequent failures they are designed for, but do not handle "simultaneous" failures adequately.
This is highlighted by the response to the near-simultaneous common-mode pitot failures on AF447. Which lead to the scenario something like:
- “simultaneous” pitot failures
- erroneous "as-designed" decision by a “fault tolerant” system
- “as designed” behaviour by other plane systems ultimately resulting in a computer-assisted snafu.
- the auto-pilot drops out and the unsuspecting crew are abruptly left holding an ill-defined hot potato.
- the [startled?] crew fail to rise to the occasion (for whatever reason or combination of reasons).
- various loud warnings are given
- loud warnings largely ignored/unnoticed, although the stall warning was terminated prematurely in what looks like a s/w "feature" (as-designed but surely not as intended)
How much better if the crew could be warned in a more timely fashion, and when they were in a calmer frame of mind?.
Suggestion
In addition to the current s/w behavior, when the s/w identifies divergent sensor readings it informs the pilots. When the s/w believes that the situation is
resolved it again informs the pilots (e.g. divergence ended or sensor retired).
AF477 case
The [relaxed?] pilots are told "airspeed sensors diverging" some time before any problem occurs (10s of seconds?). Hopefully they use the information
to alert themselves and catch up with the plane. In particular, to look and think about speed-related issues (and AoA).
Sometime later they are told "retiring airspeed sensor X".
Hopefully, when the sh*t eventually hit the fan, they would be more prepared for the situation, and already primed to consider stall and UAS.
The downside
The obvious questions are: how often would false warnings occur, and just how disruptive would they be.
Any thoughts?
Regards, Peter
PS Presumably pitot tubes may momentarily flood in very bad weather, and the system is designed to cater for this. I'm assuming that soft
pitot outages are filtered out by time-averaging techniques, then candidate hard outages are evaluated by a fairly slow comparison process,
which is intended to give any transient behaviour time to dissipate.
Current “fault-tolerant” systems work splendidly for the infrequent failures they are designed for, but do not handle "simultaneous" failures adequately.
This is highlighted by the response to the near-simultaneous common-mode pitot failures on AF447. Which lead to the scenario something like:
- “simultaneous” pitot failures
- erroneous "as-designed" decision by a “fault tolerant” system
- “as designed” behaviour by other plane systems ultimately resulting in a computer-assisted snafu.
- the auto-pilot drops out and the unsuspecting crew are abruptly left holding an ill-defined hot potato.
- the [startled?] crew fail to rise to the occasion (for whatever reason or combination of reasons).
- various loud warnings are given
- loud warnings largely ignored/unnoticed, although the stall warning was terminated prematurely in what looks like a s/w "feature" (as-designed but surely not as intended)
How much better if the crew could be warned in a more timely fashion, and when they were in a calmer frame of mind?.
Suggestion
In addition to the current s/w behavior, when the s/w identifies divergent sensor readings it informs the pilots. When the s/w believes that the situation is
resolved it again informs the pilots (e.g. divergence ended or sensor retired).
AF477 case
The [relaxed?] pilots are told "airspeed sensors diverging" some time before any problem occurs (10s of seconds?). Hopefully they use the information
to alert themselves and catch up with the plane. In particular, to look and think about speed-related issues (and AoA).
Sometime later they are told "retiring airspeed sensor X".
Hopefully, when the sh*t eventually hit the fan, they would be more prepared for the situation, and already primed to consider stall and UAS.
The downside
The obvious questions are: how often would false warnings occur, and just how disruptive would they be.
Any thoughts?
Regards, Peter
PS Presumably pitot tubes may momentarily flood in very bad weather, and the system is designed to cater for this. I'm assuming that soft
pitot outages are filtered out by time-averaging techniques, then candidate hard outages are evaluated by a fairly slow comparison process,
which is intended to give any transient behaviour time to dissipate.
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: France - mostly
Age: 84
Posts: 1,682
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Yes, he did pull back, intentionally or not, we don't know:
2 h 10 min 07: The copilot sidestick is positioned: - nose-up between neutral and ¾ of the stop position; VS and VSsel are both zero.
2 h 10 min 08: The FD 1 and 2 become unavailable.
2 h 10 min 17:The FD 1 and 2 become available again; the active modes are HDG/ALT CRZ*. VS is then 4000 fpm.
2 h 10 min 07: The copilot sidestick is positioned: - nose-up between neutral and ¾ of the stop position; VS and VSsel are both zero.
2 h 10 min 08: The FD 1 and 2 become unavailable.
2 h 10 min 17:The FD 1 and 2 become available again; the active modes are HDG/ALT CRZ*. VS is then 4000 fpm.
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Grassy Valley
Posts: 2,074
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Nit pick, sorry
His FD went South concurrently? Does it matter? He had two options, at least re cues..... At 4000fpm and 2:10:17, what was elevator and G? Rule out chasing the cue? What was his altitude? He needs all three under certain circumstances to suss level, imho.....
Peter H? Chime in sport. Hint: The arrangement, type, and performance of Thales, were adequate, but not in conjunction with two others.
The Software was fatal, and unless changed, continues to threaten current flights of this type......
The two are related, but not fatally....
His FD went South concurrently? Does it matter? He had two options, at least re cues..... At 4000fpm and 2:10:17, what was elevator and G? Rule out chasing the cue? What was his altitude? He needs all three under certain circumstances to suss level, imho.....
Peter H? Chime in sport. Hint: The arrangement, type, and performance of Thales, were adequate, but not in conjunction with two others.
The Software was fatal, and unless changed, continues to threaten current flights of this type......
The two are related, but not fatally....
Last edited by Lyman; 31st May 2012 at 23:20.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: uk
Posts: 857
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
This shouldn't be hard to believe - this crew have plenty of company in that. It's not a new phenomena (e.g. BEA 548 back in 72) and nor is it an old one that's gone away (Colgan, Ethiopian...).
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Cambridge UK
Posts: 192
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Pitot probe failure
Lyman Three identical probes. If there had been only one, the crash would not have happened. I can prove it..... Can you?
Great, what looks like a trick question from a domain expert.
I wouldn't dream of trying to address such an ill-posed question in an problem area I am so unfamiliar with.
Yes, I would be interested in hearing your take on the behaviour of an a/b modified [how?] to use a single a/s probe, when the probe gives
erroneously low readings for an extended period of time. And why it would differ so significantly from that of AF447.
Great, what looks like a trick question from a domain expert.
I wouldn't dream of trying to address such an ill-posed question in an problem area I am so unfamiliar with.
Yes, I would be interested in hearing your take on the behaviour of an a/b modified [how?] to use a single a/s probe, when the probe gives
erroneously low readings for an extended period of time. And why it would differ so significantly from that of AF447.
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Grassy Valley
Posts: 2,074
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The Achilles Heel is Ice, to which all three are equally vulnerable, so using more than one is not only expensive, it's dangerous. Why? Because to reject one and then look at another is prolonging the loss of reads, by definition. Placing them on strategic points on the nose is meaningless. Turbulence is not an issue, they are not designed to be resistant or sensitive, in a functional way. The only solution is to use one, or another or two of different manufacture. That may mitigate the vulnerability, so why just one PITOT at all?
. The siren song is "redundance". "Simultaneous" failure is not unexpected, it is PREDICTED, which leads us to the fatal programming. The computer is programmed to rely on the possibility of a combination of probes being reliable, should one become an "outlier". So it reads and computes.....GARBAGE.
By definition, if not by trial or test...All the while, the a/p soldiers on, the pilots are unaware, and unprimed for a worsening situation whilst the computer hogs precious time and calm from the crew....
So for the false security of "redundance" the solution is anomalous design. Sensing systems that are different in approach design, and isolated from the problems of the other, by design, raising the reliability many fold, and eliminating parallel failure of identical sytems. With three same, Each combination of the six available to the computer is no more reliable than the other, in the midst of fail.
What to do? If the a/s is not consistent with other systems performance (and comparing them is not easy, but certainly possible), REJECT IT> ALL OF IT, INSTANTLY.......Trying to hang on to a failing system is ignorant, imo. And I have shown how if one fails, the others will, don't pretend they are different, and can somehow be reliable when they won't.
PJ2 has me convinced that UAS is not a serious problem and I believe....
But it is potentially fatal when it is treated as an emergency first by the flight computers, and then by giving it to to the crew...with controls alterations, etc.
At the first suspicion, reject the air system.....And keep the aircraft in NORMAL LAW, Don't make a mountain out of the molehill. A/P quits, the pilot flies Pitch and POWER, and soon, the AD returns. Or, with anomalous design, use it as with the Thales, as a dependable grouping, not a triple failure...
An excellent time for the crew to demonstrate proficiency in what we are told is a non-event. That will make Machinbird happy, because he is right, some real time challenge is what is indicated to bring the proficiency up a notch.
alternate Law? for UAS? Why? The builders and owners don't trust the pilots anyway, why make it harder on them? Just so when the a/c STALLS< it can be reported it was not in NORMAL LAW when it STALLED? If the protections are hot S... why not leave them in, lewt them earn their keep.
. The siren song is "redundance". "Simultaneous" failure is not unexpected, it is PREDICTED, which leads us to the fatal programming. The computer is programmed to rely on the possibility of a combination of probes being reliable, should one become an "outlier". So it reads and computes.....GARBAGE.
By definition, if not by trial or test...All the while, the a/p soldiers on, the pilots are unaware, and unprimed for a worsening situation whilst the computer hogs precious time and calm from the crew....
So for the false security of "redundance" the solution is anomalous design. Sensing systems that are different in approach design, and isolated from the problems of the other, by design, raising the reliability many fold, and eliminating parallel failure of identical sytems. With three same, Each combination of the six available to the computer is no more reliable than the other, in the midst of fail.
What to do? If the a/s is not consistent with other systems performance (and comparing them is not easy, but certainly possible), REJECT IT> ALL OF IT, INSTANTLY.......Trying to hang on to a failing system is ignorant, imo. And I have shown how if one fails, the others will, don't pretend they are different, and can somehow be reliable when they won't.
PJ2 has me convinced that UAS is not a serious problem and I believe....
But it is potentially fatal when it is treated as an emergency first by the flight computers, and then by giving it to to the crew...with controls alterations, etc.
At the first suspicion, reject the air system.....And keep the aircraft in NORMAL LAW, Don't make a mountain out of the molehill. A/P quits, the pilot flies Pitch and POWER, and soon, the AD returns. Or, with anomalous design, use it as with the Thales, as a dependable grouping, not a triple failure...
An excellent time for the crew to demonstrate proficiency in what we are told is a non-event. That will make Machinbird happy, because he is right, some real time challenge is what is indicated to bring the proficiency up a notch.
alternate Law? for UAS? Why? The builders and owners don't trust the pilots anyway, why make it harder on them? Just so when the a/c STALLS< it can be reported it was not in NORMAL LAW when it STALLED? If the protections are hot S... why not leave them in, lewt them earn their keep.
Last edited by Lyman; 1st Jun 2012 at 00:12.