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AF 447 Search to resume

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AF 447 Search to resume

Old 6th May 2010, 16:58
  #841 (permalink)  
 
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I'm sure MM43 will be along shortly. In the meantime here are the Seabed Worker's satellite-recorded positions between 2 May and 07:02z today. Apologies for the lack of spacing between fields; the data is taken straight from an Excel spreadsheet.

GMT Local Course Speed Latitude Longitude
06-May-2010 10:02 06-05-2010 07:02 239.7 0.5 3°15'11''N 31°10'47''W
06 May 2010 01:04 05-05-2010 22:04 24.9 2.2 3°18'22''N 31°08'01''W
05 May 2010 23:21 05-05-2010 20:21 218.6 1.1 3°17'04''N 31°08'07''W
05 May 2010 21:45 05-05-2010 18:45 202.7 0.6 3°16'46''N 31°08'10''W
05 May 2010 12:46 05-05-2010 09:46 145.8 0.3 3°16'59''N 31°08'06''W
05 May 2010 11:10 05-05-2010 08:10 261.9 0.4 3°16'57''N 31°08'05''W
05 May 2010 00:32 04-05-2010 21:32 65.3 0.8 3°15'56''N 31°10'37''W
04 May 2010 22:52 04-05-2010 19:52 224.8 0.6 3°16'15''N 31°10'15''W
04 May 2010 12:14 04-05-2010 09:14 265.5 0.6 3°15'57''N 31°08'30''W
04 May 2010 10:36 04-05-2010 07:36 346.8 10.4 3°06'44''N 31°06'26''W
04 May 2010 01:46 03-05-2010 22:46 294.4 0.8 3°17'12''N 31°08'07''W
04 May 2010 00:00 03-05-2010 21:00 273.4 1.1 3°17'14''N 31°08'19''W
03 May 2010 22:24 03-05-2010 19:24 215.9 0.4 3°17'08''N 31°08'00''W
03 May 2010 13:56 03-05-2010 10:56 64.9 2.3 3°17'07''N 31°08'04''W
03 May 2010 11:46 03-05-2010 08:46 107.2 10.3 3°17'33''N 31°08'05''W
03 May 2010 01:19 02-05-2010 22:19 13.0 9.6 2°15'07''N 31°28'01''W
02 May 2010 23:28 02-05-2010 20:28 17.2 10.1 1°57'37''N 31°33'06''W
02 May 2010 14:44 02-05-2010 11:44 16.0 11.7 0°26'38''N 32°00'10''W
02 May 2010 12:55 02-05-2010 09:55 16.3 11.6 0°06'22''N 32°06'04''W
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Old 6th May 2010, 17:49
  #842 (permalink)  
 
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so they never delayed any further searches untill the results from phase one had been analysed, there must be some logic there somewhere but im dammed if i can see it and as for saying they know the whereabouts of the boxes i think pretty much everybody knew they where in the sea,
good effort, how much did that gem cost, is there a greek finance minister running this search?


gs
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Old 6th May 2010, 18:55
  #843 (permalink)  
 
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Good Spark,

As for logic, perhaps one should assume that there was never any certainty the tapes would reveal anything new, despite all the work on them.

Two new satellite position reports show the Seabed Worker at approximately the same position as the latest one in my earlier post.
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Old 6th May 2010, 20:57
  #844 (permalink)  
 
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Good Spark;
BEA was informed this morning of the Navy's results. My understanding is that there is no contact with the AUV's until they surface after completing their programmed mission, which can be up to 24 hrs after being sent down. Perhaps that explains the Seabed Worker's positions. French press reports put the cost of the current and earlier search efforts at 28 million euros (BEA 10m; AB&AF 13m; french navy 5 à 6 m).
HN39

Last edited by HazelNuts39; 6th May 2010 at 21:25. Reason: cost added
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Old 6th May 2010, 22:11
  #845 (permalink)  
 
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Hi,

This new research zone is about 40 Km south of the last (supposed) know position of the AF447.
That's very interesting ..
Can we dare supposing the AF447 take purposely a back (or altered) course for avoid bad weather or it was a uncontrolled back heading ?
Or the boxes live the plane before he hit the water (that will contradict the BEA analysis) ?
EDIT:
Thank's CONF iture.
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Old 6th May 2010, 22:13
  #846 (permalink)  
 
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The new search zone would be 20 NM SOUTH west of the last known ACARS position.
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Old 6th May 2010, 23:03
  #847 (permalink)  
 
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CONF iture;

Will be watching the Seabed Workers position closely over the next few hours. The media's interpretation of what they hear, is not always what is meant.

On the subject of the reanalysis of the SNA "Emeraude" sonar tapes, it would be interesting to know what data recovery technique has been used. I suspect that they have mixed a very low level 37.5kHz tone into the noise which when combined with the pinger 37.5kHz tone will provide (37.5 +/- 37.5) = 75kHz or 0. The level of the tone is critical for the mixing and the summing to take place.

mm43

Last edited by mm43; 6th May 2010 at 23:16. Reason: added reanalysis of tapes para
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Old 7th May 2010, 02:34
  #848 (permalink)  
 
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CONF iture;

According to BEA's Press Release of 06/05/2010:
It is in fact situated two hours sailing time to the south of the position of the ship that is currently exploring the area north-west of the last known position of the airplane.
Since 'two hours sailing' is approx. 20 Nm; maybe Le Figaro got it wrong this time?
HN39
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Old 7th May 2010, 02:55
  #849 (permalink)  
 
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RTL.fr broke the news that new software had been developed to analyse the results of the sonar search made by Emeraude. The software has identified a 5 x 5 Km. area

Figaro talks about the search being focused along the planned track from the last known position and offers possible reasons why the search is now focused southwest of the last known position:
  • a turnback whether to get out of the thunderstorm or to return to Rio
  • an upset and spin that put them off course
mm43's work is looking better all the time
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Old 7th May 2010, 04:22
  #850 (permalink)  
 
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On the subject of the reanalysis of the SNA "Emeraude" sonar tapes, it would be interesting to know what data recovery technique has been used. I suspect that they have mixed a very low level 37.5kHz tone into the noise which when combined with the pinger 37.5kHz tone will provide (37.5 +/- 37.5) = 75kHz or 0. The level of the tone is critical for the mixing and the summing to take place.
We should assume that there are very efficient digital methods available these days (as autocorrelation), that play in the frequency domain and generate a waterfall diagram of frequencies acquired.
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Old 7th May 2010, 05:11
  #851 (permalink)  
 
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threemiles;

Agreed, but playing in the noise is not the best playpen for digital analysis. Some analogue enhancement techniques are needed, hence my suggested mixing to extract a signal of interest. Then the waterfall diagram will show some useful 75kHz data extracted from the noise floor.

mm43
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Old 7th May 2010, 10:14
  #852 (permalink)  
 
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Australia's Channel 7 News said that the French Navy had recovered the Air France Black Box.........

So?
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Old 7th May 2010, 11:49
  #853 (permalink)  
 
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so all you have to do is read the last few messages of this thread to have an answer instead of reporting crappy journalistic sensational misinformed news ?
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Old 7th May 2010, 11:55
  #854 (permalink)  
 
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New search area

Waiting for monday's BEA press release, to get an idea of the areas examined by the Emeraude submarine during the 1st stage of the search, you may refer to the 2nd interim report delivered on the 17th of dec. 2009: http://www.bea.aero/docspa/2009/f-cp...90601e2.en.pdf .Page 82 you will find the weighted results of the search area (according to the capacity of the means deployed): the red & orange areas, west south-west of the 1st search area (explored using the TPLs, rendered in green), are presumably those probed by the Emeraude (the little isolated green area in the western part is related to the Meteo France backdrifted crash area).
Jeff
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Old 7th May 2010, 14:47
  #855 (permalink)  
 
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mm43, it's more likely they'd be using noise reduction technologies than trying to mix the signal to baseband or 2f as you described. I'd try using auto-correlation techniques on the signal and a delayed version of the signal, perhaps two separate pings.

Within a short time the box would be at thermal equilibrium with its resting point. So from ping to ping it's frequency would be quite stable. But the noise environment would be ever changing. So auto-correlation could use two versions of the signal to pick itself up out of the noise. I'd also look for short term correlations in the noise that could be used for nulling portions of the noise. Other techniques such as really narrow band FFT and the like may also help bring the ping up out of the noise environment.

{^_^}
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Old 7th May 2010, 15:36
  #856 (permalink)  
 
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Update: "Seabed Worker" - positions

The following are the latest available positions for Seabed Worker:-

6 May 2010 23:54z Hdg 230.3°T Spd 1.0KT 2°45'36''N 31°12'40''W
6 May 2010 22:18z Hdg 225.5°T Spd 0.7KT 2°38'08''N 31°12'45''W

The graphic below shows the positions in relation to the Last Known Position and a portion of the Zone 1 search area.



The nominal search area now seems to be centered on 2°42'N 31°13'W.

If this position is where the wreckage is located, then it is reasonable to assume that an overspeed event occurred post the LKP as the a/c would appear from analysis of the ACARS messages to have been in a deep stall for over 1min prior to impact, or alternatively was airborne longer than previously thought.

mm43
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Old 7th May 2010, 15:44
  #857 (permalink)  
 
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Those vessel positions may correspond with the emerging news from Le Figaro, quoting a Government Official that the possibility of the plane diverting is under investigation.

Denis


«Cela signifie que l'avion était en perdition et aurait, conformément aux procédures en vigueur fait demi-tour soit pour sortir d'une zone de cumulonimbus, soit pour franchement retourner vers le Brésil», a expliqué une source gouvernementale interrogée par le quotidien.
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Old 7th May 2010, 15:50
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Of course you are in the process of diverting after penetrating an active mesoscale event - intentional or not. My suspicion is that the track flown was not necessarily by design, and other factors had greater control.

mm43
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Old 7th May 2010, 16:08
  #859 (permalink)  
 
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It may also correspond to the frequence of findings of debris and bodies in the area North of the last known position as doumented in the BEA report.



This one shows the total debris (white) and bodies (red) between 06-JUN-2009 and 18-JUN-2009.



This one only shows debris and bodies lovated on 06-JUN-2009.

The locations have incrementally moved to the North thereafter; however, this may be a hint about the gap between 01-JUN-2009 (occurence) and the first findings on 06-JUN-2009.

Denis
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Old 7th May 2010, 16:27
  #860 (permalink)  
 
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As the majority of parts have been recovered on 15-JUN-2009 and 16-JUN-2009, this may appear the average stream distribution speed in order to derive the impact location.

Image: Debirs and bodies found on 16-JUN-2009.

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