Accident investigation and PPRuNe (Discussion)
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Originally Posted by krujje
I have been through an experience where the various parties involved could not even agree on what happened, much less why, and as far as I know still haven't
PBL
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pbl:
Sounds like an interesting case. If you rule out fatigue failure based on metallurgical examination and can categorically say that no foreign objects were involved, then you're left with either under-designed structure (or structure which was not built to the design specs) or some event, such as a gust, which overloaded a correctly designed structure. This would be the case for failure causing tumble. But then, as you say, you could also argue tumble causing failure. Then I guess you have to look for the reason for the tumble. I look forward to reading about it when you publish. Did you work with BFU at all on this?
That is the case in the microlight accident we are working. There was a specific structural failure, and there was a loss of control and tumble. The question is which came first. Prosecution, following accident investigation authority, says failure caused tumble. We say equally (or more) likely that tumble caused failure. I was lucky to come across, and recommend the engagement of, a forensic structural engineer who has all but proved it by looking much more closely than others at some critical parts as well as at the design and certification basis of the aircraft.
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lomapaseo:
Although sometimes... even in a face to face, especially with certain personality types, you can't stop the discussion from degenerating... some people inspire confidence, some people inspire violence. 
and I might add typically free of insults unlike those on a message board where one can hide behind a user name and no worries about losing some teeth in a bash
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In which order does Occam's Razor say the events occurred?
What was the cause of the tumble, if not structural failure?
What good is 'all but proved'? 'All but proved' means 'has not proved'.
What was the cause of the tumble, if not structural failure?
What good is 'all but proved'? 'All but proved' means 'has not proved'.
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What was the cause of the tumble, if not structural failure?
What good is 'all but proved'? 'All but proved' means 'has not proved'.
PBL
John Tullamarine
agree good job
Unfortunately the idea of a Thread in the News&Rumors section with a title intended to embarass and bring into ridicule well intentioned supporters of this board will have a very negative effect in the long run.
I couldn't help but notice that the same old garbage still exits in the active professional sounding B777 accident thread while some true gems of knowledge by some expert posters (not speculation) are relegated to the so called garbage thread.
I had always found it more infomative to open ideas for the discussion and examination on this message board prior to talking to the press, having experienced some of my posts being relegated by the moderators to the garbage thread I may have to rethink the usefulness of PPrune as a sounding board prior to launching into the thought pieces in the public domain.
... but we manage to keep some of the more outlandish folk in line .. at least some of the time ..... fortunately Tech Log discussions generally tend to be goal oriented most of the time ...
Unfortunately the idea of a Thread in the News&Rumors section with a title intended to embarass and bring into ridicule well intentioned supporters of this board will have a very negative effect in the long run.
I couldn't help but notice that the same old garbage still exits in the active professional sounding B777 accident thread while some true gems of knowledge by some expert posters (not speculation) are relegated to the so called garbage thread.
I had always found it more infomative to open ideas for the discussion and examination on this message board prior to talking to the press, having experienced some of my posts being relegated by the moderators to the garbage thread I may have to rethink the usefulness of PPrune as a sounding board prior to launching into the thought pieces in the public domain.
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I couldn't help but notice that the same old garbage still exits in the active professional sounding B777 accident thread while some true gems of knowledge by some expert posters (not speculation) are relegated to the so called garbage thread.
I have read all posts, and agree that about 10% is worthwhile. Sure takes some patience to sift through the chaff to find the few grains of wheat...
Finding this one was like entering an oasis.
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I have read all posts, and agree that about 10% is worthwhile. Sure takes some patience to sift through the chaff to find the few grains of wheat...
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This perhaps does not perhaps belong right here, but there has been much breast-beating of late about how terrible journos are and how "picked on" the poor airline industry is, especially in the context of accidents.
Some of you may have seen a supposed photo of a "creature" on Mars that has been doing the rounds recently. Chris Lintott of the BBC's Sky at Night program has posted a commentary on the less than stringent BBC article on this photograph. It should be noted that this is actually a four year old story as the photograph comes from the first pictures Spirit took from the landing site.
Any frustration anyone here feels at media simplification and plain nonsense is easily equalled by his clear dismay. Here's the start of his commentary; follow the link for the rest...
and so on...
(Mods, if you decide to move this please tell me where you put it; I plan on referring people to it when they next complain about the Daily Mail etc...)
Some of you may have seen a supposed photo of a "creature" on Mars that has been doing the rounds recently. Chris Lintott of the BBC's Sky at Night program has posted a commentary on the less than stringent BBC article on this photograph. It should be noted that this is actually a four year old story as the photograph comes from the first pictures Spirit took from the landing site.
Any frustration anyone here feels at media simplification and plain nonsense is easily equalled by his clear dismay. Here's the start of his commentary; follow the link for the rest...
BBC : Mystery image of ‘life on Mars’
Chris : There is no mystery. It’s a rock.
BBC : An image of a mysterious shape on the surface of Mars, taken by Nasa spacecraft Spirit, has reignited the debate about life on the Red Planet. A magnified version of the picture, posted on the internet, appears to some to show what resembles a human form among a crop of rocks.
Chris : There is no mystery. It’s a rock. By ‘reignited the debate’ they mean ’some people on the internet get easily overexcited’.
BBC :While some bloggers have dismissed the image as a trick of light, others say it is evidence of an alien presence.
Chris : Is this supposed to be balanced reporting? It’s a rock.
Chris : There is no mystery. It’s a rock.
BBC : An image of a mysterious shape on the surface of Mars, taken by Nasa spacecraft Spirit, has reignited the debate about life on the Red Planet. A magnified version of the picture, posted on the internet, appears to some to show what resembles a human form among a crop of rocks.
Chris : There is no mystery. It’s a rock. By ‘reignited the debate’ they mean ’some people on the internet get easily overexcited’.
BBC :While some bloggers have dismissed the image as a trick of light, others say it is evidence of an alien presence.
Chris : Is this supposed to be balanced reporting? It’s a rock.
(Mods, if you decide to move this please tell me where you put it; I plan on referring people to it when they next complain about the Daily Mail etc...)
ENTREPPRUNEUR
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This whole BA038 thing has been a real PPRuNe rollercoaster. It's been amazing how much World attention it has garnered. However I have to confess, sadly very little useful information has come out. This is really odd because you couldn't have a better crash - everyone walks away and its right under the noses of tons of professionals in one of the most intensively monitored pieces of aeronautical real estate. And you couldn't have a better group of people than PPRuNers. It's beginning to look like a subtle problem so it almost justifies all the wait-and-see brigade remarks, although don't let them hear I just said that.
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Sure takes some patience to sift through the chaff to find the few grains of wheat...
..that's much of the problem for mods .. PPRuNe is a diversion from the ups and downs of whatever day job we have ... and there is only so much time which can be spent scanning the posts .. when an event of exciting proportions comes along the uninformed component of threads takes a skyward leap and it becomes very difficult to keep things on something approaching an even keel ..
Hopefully we are stemming the tide of excessively overt enthusiasm in Tech Log on this one .. albeit that we are having to run hard to even look like keeping up with it ...
..that's much of the problem for mods .. PPRuNe is a diversion from the ups and downs of whatever day job we have ... and there is only so much time which can be spent scanning the posts .. when an event of exciting proportions comes along the uninformed component of threads takes a skyward leap and it becomes very difficult to keep things on something approaching an even keel ..
Hopefully we are stemming the tide of excessively overt enthusiasm in Tech Log on this one .. albeit that we are having to run hard to even look like keeping up with it ...
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Just as an example of the utility of the informed amateur: The Campbell family investigation which forced the NTSB to change its conclusions as to the cause of the United 747 cargo door loss that cost 9 lives over the Pacific Ocean.
Note that the Campbells receive no credit in the amended report.
After an excellent landing you can use the airplane again!
Note that the Campbells receive no credit in the amended report.
After an excellent landing you can use the airplane again!
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Also look at Gordon Vette with the DC-10 crash on Mt. Erebus. He did quite a lot of research into the psychological and physiological aspects of human perception in order to show that it was quite possible for a pilot to fly straight into a mountain in VMC. He wrote a book called "Impact Erebus" which is quite an interesting read. He was a professional pilot, so in that sense not an amateur, but he was an amateur when it came to human psychology and perception. His arguments had no effect on the official investigation report, but they did have a large influence on the inquiry.
In the end, what distinguishes a professional from an amateur is that professionals are paid for their work and amateurs are not. Anybody who takes the time to learn about a topic and ask the right questions can in time form valid opinions on that topic. If that were not true, then there would be no professionals.
In the end, what distinguishes a professional from an amateur is that professionals are paid for their work and amateurs are not. Anybody who takes the time to learn about a topic and ask the right questions can in time form valid opinions on that topic. If that were not true, then there would be no professionals.
