Jeff Bezoz - Spaceflight
Joined: Sep 2014
Aviation Qualifications: PPL
Posts: 282
Likes: 108
From: Germany
But seriously. Falcon family here, Starship/Superheavy there, I must applaud the Blue team. Slowly but steadily - they are closing in.
Second attempt and nice precision with the landing on the ship. Satellite/Space Missions on first attempt. All in all, they have a very good (classical) engineering and an effective management (compared to old industry). And I shall not forget the production/quality_control!
Now show me the reusability of that booster, and I am totally blown off.
Congratulations!
Last edited by 51bravo; 17th November 2025 at 08:52.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,662
Likes: 7,348
From: Peripatetic
All in all, they have a very good (classical) engineering and an effective management (compared to old industry). And I shall not forget the production/quality_control!
Now show me the reusability of that booster, and I am totally blown off.
Now show me the reusability of that booster, and I am totally blown off.
SpaceX now has Falcon 9 turnaround times down to 9 days*, the aim for the Starship Heavy Booster is same day turnaround.
* https://www.theweeklyspaceman.com/ar...2D57%20mission.
They do seem to have a niche market though. Falcon has the satellite LEO market sewn up - around 99% reliability, fast turn around and small enough to put pylons into designated orbits from equatorial to polar. Starship will replace Falcon Heavy (the same niche as Glenn) and offer far lower costs per ton for heavy payloads.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,662
Likes: 7,348
From: Peripatetic
………………
[quote]Blue Origin press release:
Blue Origin to Pause New Shepard Flights for No Less Than Two Years
Resources will be redirected to further accelerate lunar human flight program
Blue Origin today announced it will pause its New Shepard flights and shift resources to further accelerate development of the company's human lunar capabilities. The decision reflects Blue Origin's commitment to the nation's goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence.
New Shepard is the first reusable spaceflight system to vertically land and has flown 38 times and carried 98 humans above the Kármán line to date. New Shepard has launched more than 200 scientific and research payloads from students, academia, research organizations, and NASA. This consistent and reliable performance, combined with an exceptional customer experience, has resulted in a multi-year customer backlog.
[quote]Blue Origin press release:
Blue Origin to Pause New Shepard Flights for No Less Than Two Years
Resources will be redirected to further accelerate lunar human flight program
Blue Origin today announced it will pause its New Shepard flights and shift resources to further accelerate development of the company's human lunar capabilities. The decision reflects Blue Origin's commitment to the nation's goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence.
New Shepard is the first reusable spaceflight system to vertically land and has flown 38 times and carried 98 humans above the Kármán line to date. New Shepard has launched more than 200 scientific and research payloads from students, academia, research organizations, and NASA. This consistent and reliable performance, combined with an exceptional customer experience, has resulted in a multi-year customer backlog.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,662
Likes: 7,348
From: Peripatetic
NEWS: SpaceX has filed a letter with the FCC, accusing Amazon of continuing to violate its approved orbital debris mitigation plan.
"Amazon is dispensing satellites 50-90 km higher than authorized and without adequate coordination or information sharing. Amazon’s and its launch partner Arianespace’s negligence needlessly and significantly increases risk to other operational systems and inhabited spacecraft. To be clear, Amazon and Arianespace can easily launch in a manner that dramatically decreases this risk if they simply adjust their launch plans to bring them into compliance with Amazon’s authorization."
Full letter:
"Amazon is dispensing satellites 50-90 km higher than authorized and without adequate coordination or information sharing. Amazon’s and its launch partner Arianespace’s negligence needlessly and significantly increases risk to other operational systems and inhabited spacecraft. To be clear, Amazon and Arianespace can easily launch in a manner that dramatically decreases this risk if they simply adjust their launch plans to bring them into compliance with Amazon’s authorization."
Full letter:
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,662
Likes: 7,348
From: Peripatetic
The stage is set at LC-36 for @blueorigin and their New Glenn rocket, aiming to launch @AST_SpaceMobile's BlueBird 7 satellite into orbit no earlier than tomorrow morning.
This is Blue's first attempt to reuse GS1 booster, "Never Tell Me The Odds", marking a significant milestone in the New Glenn program and the company's long-term vision of reusable orbital-class hardware.
The two-hour launch window opens at 6:45am EDT - go NG-3!
This is Blue's first attempt to reuse GS1 booster, "Never Tell Me The Odds", marking a significant milestone in the New Glenn program and the company's long-term vision of reusable orbital-class hardware.
The two-hour launch window opens at 6:45am EDT - go NG-3!
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,662
Likes: 7,348
From: Peripatetic
Good launch and safe booster landing on the recovery ship offshore.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,662
Likes: 7,348
From: Peripatetic
The operation was a success, but the patient died……
NG-3 Update: We have confirmed payload separation. AST SpaceMobile has confirmed the satellite has powered on. The payload was placed into an off-nominal orbit. We are currently assessing and will update when we have more detailed information.
Unverified, but elsewhere have seen 460km x 164km.
EARLY ORBIT DATA SUGGESTS RECOVERABLE SCENARIO
Unverified numbers like 460 km x 164 km point to a highly elliptical orbit, with a reasonably high apogee and a low perigee that is the real concern.
The key issue is that ~160 km perigee sits in the upper atmosphere. At that altitude, drag is non trivial and the satellite will lose energy each orbit. Left uncorrected, that leads to rapid orbital decay. So in its current state, that orbit is not stable.
But this is not automatically a loss.
If BlueBird 7 is healthy, has attitude control, and has sufficient onboard propulsion, the problem becomes a recovery exercise. The priority would be raising perigee, not apogee. That is a relatively efficient maneuver if executed early, and once perigee is lifted into a more stable regime, the orbit can then be circularized over time.
What determines outcome now comes down to three variables. How quickly AST can begin orbit raising. How much propellant margin the satellite has. And how the spacecraft is oriented and controlled during these early passes through denser atmosphere.
A scenario like 460 x 164 is not a clean insertion, but it is also not inherently mission ending. There is a credible path where this becomes a usable orbit with some loss of lifetime or margin. There is also a path where drag wins before corrections are completed.
So this sits in the middle ground. Not a nominal success, but very much within the range of recoverable outcomes if the spacecraft is performing and intervention happens quickly.
Unverified numbers like 460 km x 164 km point to a highly elliptical orbit, with a reasonably high apogee and a low perigee that is the real concern.
The key issue is that ~160 km perigee sits in the upper atmosphere. At that altitude, drag is non trivial and the satellite will lose energy each orbit. Left uncorrected, that leads to rapid orbital decay. So in its current state, that orbit is not stable.
But this is not automatically a loss.
If BlueBird 7 is healthy, has attitude control, and has sufficient onboard propulsion, the problem becomes a recovery exercise. The priority would be raising perigee, not apogee. That is a relatively efficient maneuver if executed early, and once perigee is lifted into a more stable regime, the orbit can then be circularized over time.
What determines outcome now comes down to three variables. How quickly AST can begin orbit raising. How much propellant margin the satellite has. And how the spacecraft is oriented and controlled during these early passes through denser atmosphere.
A scenario like 460 x 164 is not a clean insertion, but it is also not inherently mission ending. There is a credible path where this becomes a usable orbit with some loss of lifetime or margin. There is also a path where drag wins before corrections are completed.
So this sits in the middle ground. Not a nominal success, but very much within the range of recoverable outcomes if the spacecraft is performing and intervention happens quickly.
Joined: Jul 2013
Aviation Qualifications: Non-Aircrew
Posts: 5,679
Likes: 3,341
From: Everett, WA
Update -apparently the orbit is not recoverable:
AST Spacemobile BlueBird 7 Satellite Lost
AST Spacemobile BlueBird 7 Satellite Lost
ASTS admits the satellite is too low and cannot be saved. Based on what the orbit appears to be. 20kg of fuel they can only raise it part of the way.
During the New Glenn 3 mission, BlueBird 7 was placed into a lower than planned orbit by the upper stage of the launch vehicle. While the satellite separated from the launch vehicle and powered on, the altitude is too low to sustain operations with its on-board thruster technology and will de-orbited.
During the New Glenn 3 mission, BlueBird 7 was placed into a lower than planned orbit by the upper stage of the launch vehicle. While the satellite separated from the launch vehicle and powered on, the altitude is too low to sustain operations with its on-board thruster technology and will de-orbited.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,662
Likes: 7,348
From: Peripatetic
As we know, New Glenn's upper stage failed to conduct its planned circularization burn; this left the payload in an unrecoverable low orbit.
We have tracking data on the payload - however, there is no data provided for the New Glenn upper-stage at this time. It's safe to assume it did not complete a disposal burn.
New Glenn upper stage and payload will re-enter within the next 4-5 days. New Glenn upper stage dry mass is around 25 metric tons and measures in at ~ 77ft x 23ft which is comparable to the Long March 5B stage that the CASC left in orbit a few years ago.
New Glenn's upper stage poses a significant risk to locations between 36.11 degrees N/S latitude and will generate a large debris field.
If it re-enters over land, largely intact pieces may be found, possibly as large as 5 feet or more in diameter. Lighter-weight spherical objects such as COPVs are expected to partially/completely survive re-entry.
We have tracking data on the payload - however, there is no data provided for the New Glenn upper-stage at this time. It's safe to assume it did not complete a disposal burn.
New Glenn upper stage and payload will re-enter within the next 4-5 days. New Glenn upper stage dry mass is around 25 metric tons and measures in at ~ 77ft x 23ft which is comparable to the Long March 5B stage that the CASC left in orbit a few years ago.
New Glenn's upper stage poses a significant risk to locations between 36.11 degrees N/S latitude and will generate a large debris field.
If it re-enters over land, largely intact pieces may be found, possibly as large as 5 feet or more in diameter. Lighter-weight spherical objects such as COPVs are expected to partially/completely survive re-entry.
Joined: Oct 2004
Aviation Qualifications: Military (Retired)
Posts: 454
Likes: 134
From: Norfolk, UK
Bad engine, it seems
Grounded for now.
Preliminary data indicate that one of the upper stage engines failed to produce enough thrust, Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp said.
Joined: Oct 2004
Aviation Qualifications: Military (Retired)
Posts: 454
Likes: 134
From: Norfolk, UK
Something has de-orbited according to the NYT.
Jonathan McDowell, a retired astrophysicist who is an expert in space debris, said the United States Space Force, which tracks tens of thousands of objects in orbit, reported that an object it identified as the satellite dropped out of orbit on Monday. The Space Force has not identified the New Glenn upper stage, and some experts felt it was possible that it had mixed up the satellite with the stage. “The upper stage is the big mystery right now,” Dr. McDowell said.
Joined: Oct 2004
Aviation Qualifications: Military (Retired)
Posts: 454
Likes: 134
From: Norfolk, UK
Something still up there...
We observed a man-made celestial object of negative magnitude moving at high speed. This is footage captured from my home near the zenith at 4:00 AM on April 20, 2026. Based on orbital determination, it appears to have an inclination of approximately 36 degrees and an altitude of about 175 km. It is possibly the New Glenn upper stage that failed to reach orbit, and if so, this would be its state about 7.5 hours after launch. It is expected to reenter in just a few days.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,662
Likes: 7,348
From: Peripatetic
The main loss here isn’t the ship - it’s the pad, LC36. (Which is why SpceX and NASA have separate sites for their static fire tests so their lunch pad and all the GSE isn’t at risk.
Building repairing LC36 will not be quick - SpaceX took 15 months.
The lightning tower is gone. The Transporter-Erector is gone, the GSE is destroyed. The concrete of the pad itself and it’s foundations will have to be repaired if not dug up and replaced before any of the other work can start.
Building repairing LC36 will not be quick - SpaceX took 15 months.
The lightning tower is gone. The Transporter-Erector is gone, the GSE is destroyed. The concrete of the pad itself and it’s foundations will have to be repaired if not dug up and replaced before any of the other work can start.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,662
Likes: 7,348
From: Peripatetic
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/0...tic-fire-test/
The most spectacular rocket explosion since N1 just happened in Florida
The most spectacular rocket explosion since N1 just happened in Florida