The operation was a success, but the patient died……
NG-3 Update: We have confirmed payload separation. AST SpaceMobile has confirmed the satellite has powered on. The payload was placed into an off-nominal orbit. We are currently assessing and will update when we have more detailed information.
Unverified, but elsewhere have seen 460km x 164km.
EARLY ORBIT DATA SUGGESTS RECOVERABLE SCENARIO
Unverified numbers like 460 km x 164 km point to a highly elliptical orbit, with a reasonably high apogee and a low perigee that is the real concern.
The key issue is that ~160 km perigee sits in the upper atmosphere. At that altitude, drag is non trivial and the satellite will lose energy each orbit. Left uncorrected, that leads to rapid orbital decay. So in its current state, that orbit is not stable.
But this is not automatically a loss.
If BlueBird 7 is healthy, has attitude control, and has sufficient onboard propulsion, the problem becomes a recovery exercise. The priority would be raising perigee, not apogee. That is a relatively efficient maneuver if executed early, and once perigee is lifted into a more stable regime, the orbit can then be circularized over time.
What determines outcome now comes down to three variables. How quickly AST can begin orbit raising. How much propellant margin the satellite has. And how the spacecraft is oriented and controlled during these early passes through denser atmosphere.
A scenario like 460 x 164 is not a clean insertion, but it is also not inherently mission ending. There is a credible path where this becomes a usable orbit with some loss of lifetime or margin. There is also a path where drag wins before corrections are completed.
So this sits in the middle ground. Not a nominal success, but very much within the range of recoverable outcomes if the spacecraft is performing and intervention happens quickly.