Whats the story if Katla blows?
looks like its doing something, but I dont understand the graphs fully
Órói á stöðvum við Eyjafjallajökul

I bet it will all be over by tomorrow and a statement along the lines of ' after extensive testing and in consultation with enging manufactures etc etc...the ban will be lifted from ??:??hrs

I hope I'm right.

Sounds fair to me... Just as an FYI, the Met forecaster's blog has confirmed plume (though still active) is now down to 4-5km, much lower than in previous days.

"Eyjafjallajökull has only erupted three times since the Vikings settled the island in the ninth century, most recently nearly two centuries ago when it blew intermittently for 14 months in the early 1820s– an alarming enough prospect for air traffic across the Atlantic. "

Just think ....another 14 months of this :eek:

The prospects dont look good ..........



Iceland volcano: an eyeful of Eyjafjallajökull - Telegraph

Digitalis, agreed. We all know the world is neither black nor white but ash grey :}

Theres the rub......who will sign off on it?

It will. :ok:

We have to demonstrate the degree of safety vs risk in order to satisfy many.

A No risk objective is unachieveable when we fly. Acceptable risk is known and understood by only a few. Many people who post on forums do not understand risk management and what decides acceptable risk.

I doubt if anyone from NATS will climb down. Corporate manslaughter legislation would hang them from the highest tree if one or more deaths occurred. Safety is always their highest priority, and even though NATS is losing revenue no one would have the b***s to lift the restriction whilst ash was still in the atmosphere

God...save us from those trying to save us!

The one where Zee (Finnish) Govt put out the before and after pics of the engines to justify their decision to ground everyone?

Ohh, wait where did those "before" pics disappear too?

theory german airports open
 

The news about the german airports that they are open now:

When look to the position of those airports to my opinion although i am a stupid dutchman as read above is because the could be simple: that in general when study the animations the dust in fact mostly split up 2 directions.
So the midle section to my speculation has not same density as left and right.

When geograph. look to the german airports who opened well than it fits my theory.
Could be that the midle is like 2 curtains open and go up to dusseldorf next 24 ours.

Offcourse dutch are stupid so we can make stupid theories.:ok:

I wonder what other theory better fits the line of german unlocks.
So why hamburg not? see above....

We see what happens after 20.00.

I have some more theories but because i am stupid i will think first from now on before post here lol :)

sorry for my stupid contributions....

73's

Westland Seaking landed in Regents park 2 hours ago, so someone is flying.

Rather disturbed my picnic though! :ok:

Nobody will contradict that volcanic ash can have such an effect on engines.
I would like to know what kind of conditions that fighter was flying in when that damage occurred.

I bet it was not in a clear blue sky, clear of all visible fumes!

Yes the UK government is the largest shareholder at 49%, airline group have 46% and employees have 5%. No the government does not appoint or approve the executives.
I don't need to admit anything, as an employee I can very clearly see and am very clearly aware that it is a private company.

BD

KLM 867 ash encounter
 

Found this on Youtube today

solutions
 

may i suggest a solution i have not heard yet
--- flight plan all flights BELOW 20k feet till clear of ash. I KNOW .lots more fuel but if worked out and tickets charged accordingly there yiou are . even long haul flights could be planned to climb after cloud and continue . most have the fuel capacity . i stand back and await brickbats

According to reporting from the Finnish Air Force, the F18s did not fly in or near any cloud formations and did not see the dust particles that caused the damage.

BAW9156 - Just taxied - going Cardiff doing a test flight at FL310/FL320

NATS will in some way 'pass the buck' because they absolutely have to. Planes will not fall out of the sky.
They will say Manufactures will issue SB's to maintainance organisations that engine inspection times will be reduced.
There has to be an acceptable and managable risk and this is how NATS will justify opening up the airspace.

Been watching this event unfold and like many here was amazed at the reaction of NATS on day one to close airspace seemingly on the computer predictions of cloud dissipation. We continue to look at the clear blue skies as billions go up in smoke ,not just airline losses but the wider economy .
Well done to those operators who are getting airborne to conduct real evaluation of the environment and no doubt whoever made the decision to shut down are now trying to find a way out of the hole they have dug for themselves.
Air operators and aircraft commanders make decisions prior to and during every flight as to the safe conduct of that flight taking account of many factors including environmental conditions with reference to the regulations in their ops manuals which have been approved by the aviation authority and aircraft manufacturer. The ANSPs role is to coordinate the flow of traffic and ensure separation . They appear to have acted outside their remit this week as I don't believe they are qualified to decide whether it is safe for any or all aircraft to operate in this perceived threat .
No need for heroes but lets get back to the real world.

One of the curious things about any company is that the owners make decisions, and the major owner make the most important decisions.

Amongst these you will find the appointment/approval of board members and executives.

.... and closing the airspace or eventually opening it up again :ugh:

The folks down at the shop floor (or in front of that radar screen) aren't normally privy to these discussions.

But nobody has said how close to the really thick stuff he went. Knowing some fighter-jocks, they went quite close indeed.

That's why we need more data. That's why Willie Walsh is following my suggestion to fly a 747 through the ash.

pleeeze get off the back of NATS - the Air Traffic Service [you know, don't bump into each other, that sort of thing?] ;)

Aircraft operations are determined by the CAA and the Operating Company ... and a whole bunch of other people too!

Some French airports in the south have reopened
 

The French Prime Minister Francois Fillon has just announced that airports South of an axis Nice Bordeaux have reopened (Marseille, Toulouse, Bordeaux, etc.) this Sunday afternoon.

North of this axis the airports will remain closed until Tuesday morning.

may i suggest a solution i have not heard yet
--- flight plan all flights BELOW 20k feet till clear of ash. I KNOW .lots more fuel but if worked out and tickets charged accordingly there yiou are . even long haul flights could be planned to climb after cloud and continue . most have the fuel capacity . i stand back and await brickbats
Good theory, if it weren't for all recent Met forecasts showing no significant ash ABOVE 20k.... It's the getting up there that's at issue. But I agree, If you can get up there, through the mess fast enough, and "blow out" the muck, you're good, till you have to get through it on descent....

.... and does not know when the damage actually occurred, but swear that everything looked great at last inspection 3 months ago :ok:

The NATS board gave free rein to the previous CEO and the new incumbent has the same freedom.
Sigh, as I have explained several times in this thread it is NOT NATS decision just as it is not any of the other ANSPs in Europes decision. It is a government decision, the ANSPs, as the name suggests, are Service Providers and operate within the licence and regulations laid down by governments etc.

BD

FAAM
 

Anyone heard anything from the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurement aircraft G-LUXE ?
Has lots of bits and bobs fitted, not sure if its any good in this situation but would have thought so.

BAW9156 (Test flight) has just got airborne out of Heathrow 27R. To conduct a 3hr test flight to Cardiff.

Is that first flight out of LHR since Thursday then?

KL867
 

All four engines failed leaving only critical systems on backup electrical power. One report assigns the engine shutdown to the turning of the ash into a glass coating inside the engines that fooled the engine temperature sensors and led to an auto-shutdown of all four engines.

When all four main generators shut off due to the failure of all the engines, a momentary power interruption occurs when the flight instruments transfer to standby power. Standby power on the 747-400 is provided by two batteries and inverters. The captain performed the engine restart procedure which was not successful on the first few attempts and was repeated until restart was achieved. On some of the attempts, as one or more (but not all) engines started to operate, the main generator would switch back on. This switching on and off caused repeated power transfer interruptions to the flight instruments. The temporary blanking of the instruments gave the appearance that standby power had failed. These power transfers were later verified from the flight data recorder.

After descending more than 14,000 feet, Captain Karl van der Elst and crew were finally able to restart the engines and safely land the plane. In this case the ash caused more than us 80 million in damage to the aircraft (requiring all four engines to be replaced), but no lives were lost and no one was injured.As of 2010, the aircraft is still in service with KLM under the KLM Asia livery.


Dutch are stupid but also lucky sometimes :)

Thnx for the video, and offcourse i agree safety first.
Lets not forget also in this case the flight went through very thick cloud of dust. !!!

'tis hangared and under heavy maintenance . . bad timing :(

With the levels of eg. British citizens now stuck abroad, and the possible length of time this may continue, the eventual repatriation effort might turn into a humanitarian one ! Might we see the British government(election pending) stepping in or can the airlines and charter operators cope to bring this to a swift end.
JMO :bored:

Maybe ash encounter can have had the mentioned effect on the fighter engines.

But: How did these Engines look BEFORE the flight into the cloud?
Hopefully engineering at LH, KLM, AUA, BA,... that were doing very publicity effective flights with their bosses on board of one single aircraft (!!) have got a very good documentation about the state of the engines directly before todays departure.
If not, it either looks like nothing else than normal wear or "almost total destruction", depending on what you want to see.
They need data to compare, not just a few pictures to create an illusion!

FAAM hangared on heavy check
 

Timing is everything......... Surely the D check schedule should have the odd volcanic eruption factored into the plan !

Oh well, I guess its back to Willie and his Jumbo.

Plane over Belgium?
 

Anyone know what is flying over Belgium right now? Flightradar only gives callsign "111"? Almost at French Border...

BA has cancelled all London flights on monay 19th.
RYR has cancelled all UK flights until wednesday!

Flight 111 = Reg Code : D-AHFP according to Radar Virtuel

50% of flights in Europe tomorrow
 

Breaking News from a press conference by Eurocontrol. They are hoping 50% of flights in europe will be able to operate tomorrow. Some good news at last!:ok:

ETOPS implications
 

It's not simply engine failures during volcanic ash exposure that needs to be considered.

Is it not possible that a period of significant ash exposure may have implications for engine in-flight shutdown (IFSD) rates in the weeks and months to come? Is it safe to assume that engines that have spent significant time operating in ash environments will have the same IFSD rates as those that have not?

ETOPS certification depends on statistical assumptions based on IFSD rates. If ash exposure leads to changes in IFSD rates then these assumptions may no longer be valid. The fact that both engines on an airframe will likely share the same recent history of ash exposure is also relevant.

Well, there we go, KLM starts flying commercially tonight. No passengers, only freight, but still. According to the CEO European airspace is safe with the exception of parts between Iceland and Russia.

Hope the rest follows soon.