Quite the debris field.

https://www.isna.ir/amp/98101813851/...mpression=true

And, d) left a debris field like the one we're seeing photos?

I don't know what happened to this aircraft, but it sure looks like there was a very, very big explosion in flight.

No disagreement. Common sense and Occam's Razor suggest missile, bomb, something powerful going boom. Whether it was deliberate or inadvertent and who may have "done it" are all just speculation at this point.

I am not drawing any conclusions. I do find it difficult though to believe a (simple) engine fire would require such aviation and navigation that a quick mayday to secure a free flight path would be too much.


And if you do return to a busy international airport, communication might be important to at least alert other aircraft and ATC of a deviation of the expected path.

Again, no conclusions, but if I were a betting man, I would not put any money on an engine fire as sole reason.

There was a large explosion, about 2 perhaps 3 seconds prior to impact as seen in the video.

A few months ago we'd have said the same about airplanes pointing themselves at the ground :uhoh:

I'd agree that the balance of probabilities points towards an explosive at this point, but something like SW1380 but worse is still a possibility.

The lack of crew contact is the most telling piece, with an engine failure I would think that at some point a mayday would be issued especially when carrying extra crew members. The fact Iran is refusing access to the flight recorders and a statement was made within an hour stating engine failure as the cause are all red flags. Tensions were extremely high just after the missed launch by Iran and it is not outside the realms of possibility that everyone would have been a bit trigger happy towards any perceived threats. I hope it is not the case but the evidence seems to be suggesting something more complicated that a poor
y controlled engine failure.

What do you think indicates that was the case?

In one of the photos published by the Iranian Students' News Agency either the CVR or FDR is visible in what appears to be electronic debris like notebook computers put in a pile. Hope it doesn't get lost or sold for scrap.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....563d548333.jpg

I have thousands or hours on 737s and have trained on all variants up to the -800.
This event looks totally unrelated to any normal or non-normal situation that has been seen before.
An engine fire does not bring down a plane. An engine failure same. Even double engine failure leaves a 737 flyable via manual reversion - the only type in the world that can still do that.
The icing scenario does not fit either. This plane seems to have exploded in mid air prior to impact looking at the vast debris field with burning parts over a large area. The video of what looks like a Concorde last moments is graphic , if true.
Sherlock Holmes said "eliminate the impossible and your are left with the probable"
So what is left?
It is going to be hard since the authorities in Iran are going to have all the evidence and can release what then wish people to think. I believe that even a regime like the one that exists there will have to apply ICAO protocols to the investigation but it will be like pulling teeth.
The one truth that I still believe in here is that the 737 is still one of the best and safest planes every built and this event alas adds fuel to the fire of the narrative that Boeing is bad for you.
Condolences to all aboard. Very sad indeed
Old Timer
Over.....

Uhh, as most notebooks has a built in camera, it's only logical to collect them as potential source of data for the investigation.

Don't know if notebook computer cameras would be used much on climbout but I do hope tablets and cellphones will be checked for video and images. Folks do tend to record takeoffs and landings these days even in the darkness.

What sort of mistake with deicing would cause the aircraft to erupt into a fireball?! Accidentally calling over the lighter fluid truck?!

Reuters article posted a few minutes ago...

Isn't it quite possible that if a portion (or all) of a wing failed at that point due to aerodynamic forces, that the rapid release of fuel in the slipstream would create a fireball which could be perceived as an explosion? Much like the fireball which erupted at the breakup of the Space Shuttle Challenger was caused by the failure of the main tank. In that case, It appeared to be an explosion, but in true defined terms, it was not.

I don't get the large debris field point. It seems that things spread to an area about 270 m long, and it seems the craft contacted a few brick / concrete walls and a concrete water canal along the route. Why do people think that it's unusual to have in pieces?

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7dc43d1981.jpg

Uncontained engine versus debris field
 

If there was some massive and unprecedented uncontained engine failure, it seems it would be evident in the debris field - i.e. the first parts to fall to earth, short of the primary debris field, would be engine or nacelle components. It was a relatively young airplane as well, so not getting near fatigue lives and such.

Indeed. Not only would Iran's SAM defences been on edge at the time, is it not highly likely that the US would have been overhead watching what was happening?

Perhaps the SAM was intended for a US military spy plane?

It might suit both sides to conceal the cause.

what picture ?????

Probably this one:
http://avherald.com/img/uia_b738_ur-..._200108_5a.jpg
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b0d14c44b1.jpg
And I would think no.

Image circulating on social media, Babak Taghvaee is an expat Irani aviation writer:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9fda81b853.jpg

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....44616b728f.jpg


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....985ec94886.jpg

And:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c8be6fa83b.jpg