Originally Posted by EXDAC
(Post 10421012)
My speculation, and it is only speculation, is that turbulence was encountered while a seat swap was in progress and one of those involved in the swap put out a hand to steady themselves and pushed the throttles full forward. Speculation is based on lots of time in flight test where many seats swaps were observed. Who wouldn't have wanted to give the newbie a bit of stick time?
Of course that speculation is meaningless if all crew were found strapped in their appropriate seats. No idea what that was but you don’t just do “seat swaps” for a jolly and certainly not at that stage of the flight. Seat swaps with relief crew occur at cruise and the “landing” crew is seated 1-1.5 hrs out. 350-500 miles. |
Originally Posted by Australopithecus
(Post 10421199)
Is the pitot or “probe” heat on a 767 auto or manually selected? Does faulty probe heat trigger a caution? Just wondering if a blocked pitot on descent yielded an alarmingly low airspeed indication prompting an overreaction with thrust and attitude? |
Originally Posted by B2N2
(Post 10421559)
You’ve posted previously you were involved in something related to the MD-80. No idea what that was but you don’t just do “seat swaps” for a jolly and certainly not at that stage of the flight. Seat swaps with relief crew occur at cruise and the “landing” crew is seated 1-1.5 hrs out. 350-500 miles. |
Exactly so this whole seat swap lost your balance or the jumpseater wanted to take a picture and fell onto the controls is just utter jibberish. Frankely is astounding people even post this and are serious. |
Originally Posted by Murexway
(Post 10422481)
Well, the first part of the name is "Professional Pilots" . Wish there was a way to enforce that....
Bernd (aerospace safety engineer, accident analyst, private pilot) |
Originally Posted by bsieker
(Post 10422612)
This has been done to death and back. With that you'd throw away all the valuable contributions of engineers, ATC personnel, psychologists, sociologists, human-machine interface specialists, safety practitioners, and even *gasp* regulators and managers, etc., and end up a pilots-only echo chamber. I guess you can have that if you want, but that is not what this place is intended to be.
Bernd (aerospace safety engineer, accident analyst, private pilot) OK, make it the “ professional people in aviation “ forum. I’m sure no one wants to discourage our colleagues in all the areas, but maybe try and stifle the spotters, nutters and those who wear tin foil hats |
Originally Posted by Meester proach
(Post 10422639)
OK, make it the “ professional people in aviation “ forum. I’m sure no one wants to discourage our colleagues in all the areas, but maybe try and stifle the spotters, nutters and those who wear tin foil hats |
Do you want to exclude those of us with no medical due to silver hair ?
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Originally Posted by The Ancient Geek
(Post 10423020)
Do you want to exclude those of us with no medical due to silver hair ?
As gums might say, FCeng defers ... |
Originally Posted by Murexway
(Post 10421768)
Not to answer for EXDAC, but I flew Capt on the Mad Dog for 12 years and swapped legs if there was another qualified Capt on the crew list (rare), but never swapped seats. I did go to the lav a few times :) but only in cruise and nobody sat in my seat. If the sequence was over 8 hrs flying or 14 hrs duty (very rare) we had a relief crew, but the seat exchange was done at the gate.
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Originally Posted by aterpster
(Post 10423066)
Seats have to be swapped in cruise for a long flight that requires a relief pilot.
After four years flying the MD80 I can assure you it doesn’t have the legs that would require an inflight seat swap for a relief pilot |
Apparently Wall Street and Business Insider reporting NTSB stating pilot error as the cause of the crash. In the final minutes, pilots increase thrust passing through wx, overreact to nose up pitch due to thrust increase, end up 49deg nose down. NTSB saying reaction very strange for experienced aviators, as is obvious. Very strange
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Salute!
Couldn't resist..... by ater'pester" Seats have to be swapped in cruise for a long flight that requires a relief pilot. Just my "whine of the day" at the pester! Gums remembers.... Jez thot we needed a bit of light commentary and this thing is very sad. |
Originally Posted by stilton
(Post 10423173)
After four years flying the MD80 I can assure you it doesn’t have the legs that would require an inflight seat swap for a relief pilot |
Originally Posted by jimtx
(Post 10423202)
It is very strange. The only thing that comes to mind is a DC-8 crash in the 80s or 90s where fatigue might have made the pilots “punch drunk”. So we would have to know what the pilots’ duty day was like. If a tag leg after an all nighter with delays in between flights they would be zombies. NTSB will let you know someday. Nobody on atlas dare chime in if that’s the case. |
So who exactly were the crew complement?
Originally Posted by stilton
(Post 10423173)
After four years flying the MD80 I can assure you it doesn’t have the legs that would require an inflight seat swap for a relief pilot As for the chatter about changing crew positions: a. How many crew were assigned to the flight, and how many were type-rated and current on type (I may have missed that somewhere in the posts)? b. Was the jump-seater (assumption) rated and current on type with the operator? I opine that it would be a very "courageous" captain to permit a non-type rated company pilot to occupy either CM1 or CM2 seat at any stage of the flight. I wait to be enlightened. |
Originally Posted by runner1021
(Post 10423213)
Looks like the aircraft operated KONT/KMIA/KIAH. Assuming this crew flew it out of KONT they'd be looking at about a 10 hour duty day.
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Originally Posted by Skyborne Flyer
(Post 10423179)
Apparently Wall Street and Business Insider reporting NTSB stating pilot error as the cause of the crash.
From the one that you linked to: "Robert Sumwalt, the NTSB's chairman, predicted it would take more than a year of work to determine the cause of the crash" |
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
(Post 10423296)
You must be reading a different article.
From the one that you linked to: Which do you think is more likely to be something that the NTSB would actually say ? |
Originally Posted by valvanuz
(Post 10423436)
More than a year for the final report, probably. But by the preliminary report which should be out in a couple of weeks, there will be some pretty strong hints.
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Got this info from my airlines unofficial forum. Unofficial of course .
The initial bobble is from turbulence at 6200’. When the FO called for flaps 1, the captain accidentally hit the toga button. Toga didn’t engage until after flaps were set to 1, which then brought engine power to full, and started the initial pitch of 10 degrees nose up. The FO was startled, and shoved the nose forward... The CVR is startling, and baffling. The CA was pulling so hard against the FO that he sheared the pins on the stick and at that point had no control. They were IMC at the time. When they broke out into VMC, the FO said oh schit and started to pull. That was the round out you see. I won’t get into anything more until everything comes out. The records, the CVR, and what happened in the flight deck is truly shocking. They hit a negative 4 G dive initialy on the FOs push. All you hear is stuff hitting the ceiling and at one point a loud thud. They think the thud may have been the JS hitting the ceiling and maybe not wearing the shoulder harness. Like I said, I won’t get into anything more about the background of how it all happened. This is the accident in a nutshell. The facts that will come out are shocking. |
TOGA not even armed until flaps are not up.
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Nor does GA mode give you full power...
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Originally Posted by flyingchanges
(Post 10425706)
TOGA not even armed until flaps are not up.
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And the FO never learned to use the attitude indicator? With -49° pitch everything will be brown - easy to see.
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Would you have to keep yourself pressing TOGA though, to get the power, as it was first pressed before “ flaps not down “. would have to be the ultimate startle factor to go from a 2000 FPM climb to 49 degrees nose down |
Originally Posted by ABusDrivr
(Post 10425322)
Got this info from my airlines unofficial forum. Unofficial of course .
The initial bobble is from turbulence at 6200’. When the FO called for flaps 1, the captain accidentally hit the toga button. Toga didn’t engage until after flaps were set to 1, which then brought engine power to full, and started the initial pitch of 10 degrees nose up. The FO was startled, and shoved the nose forward... The CVR is startling, and baffling. The CA was pulling so hard against the FO that he sheared the pins on the stick and at that point had no control. They were IMC at the time. When they broke out into VMC, the FO said oh schit and started to pull. That was the round out you see. I won’t get into anything more until everything comes out. The records, the CVR, and what happened in the flight deck is truly shocking. They hit a negative 4 G dive initialy on the FOs push. All you hear is stuff hitting the ceiling and at one point a loud thud. They think the thud may have been the JS hitting the ceiling and maybe not wearing the shoulder harness. Like I said, I won’t get into anything more about the background of how it all happened. This is the accident in a nutshell. The facts that will come out are shocking. |
Originally Posted by Murexway
(Post 10425913)
Just got the same sequence of events from an old classmate. Only thing additional was that the FO apparently entered the weather and turbulence with the speed brakes fully deployed. I also got the extra stuff about the FO.
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Remember in the first page of this thread when someone filtered the ATC audio (background noise from foreground) and the last transmission was Ok. Well that pull you hear at the end is supposedly the jumpseater telling the crew to pull up.
We'll be able to confirm once the transcripts come out, but I've heard the same narrative as above. Sounds like the PF got disoriented by the pitch up from TOGA being engaged, the buffeting from speedbrakes made him think they were stalling so he pushes it over (way more aggressively than you'd expect) freezes and then when they break out he comes to but by then recovery is impossible. |
Originally Posted by jimtx
(Post 10425926)
So this might be relevant: https://www.businessinsider.com/amaz...exWYzCom2nO24E
Fatigue and being overworked might very well turn out to be key factors in letting the crew‘s performance drop below acceptable standards at the time of the accident. |
Originally Posted by jimtx
(Post 10425926)
So this might be relevant: https://www.businessinsider.com/amaz...exWYzCom2nO24E
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Only additional stuff I saw was that the airplane crashed with the autothrottles and A/P engaged and the elevators were split due to cross inputs on the control columns. It was only 18 seconds from 6,300 to the ground.
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Originally Posted by AviatorDave
(Post 10425956)
Even a well-trained and able crew will eventually screw up when fatigue and being overworked comes into play. |
Originally Posted by AviatorDave
(Post 10425956)
Even a well-trained and able crew will eventually screw up when fatigue and being overworked comes into play. Only the final report will confirm. May they RIP |
Originally Posted by ABusDrivr
(Post 10425322)
Got this info from my airlines unofficial forum. Unofficial of course .
The initial bobble is from turbulence at 6200’. When the FO called for flaps 1, the captain accidentally hit the toga button. Toga didn’t engage until after flaps were set to 1, which then brought engine power to full, and started the initial pitch of 10 degrees nose up. The FO was startled, and shoved the nose forward... The CVR is startling, and baffling. The CA was pulling so hard against the FO that he sheared the pins on the stick and at that point had no control. They were IMC at the time. When they broke out into VMC, the FO said oh schit and started to pull. That was the round out you see. I won’t get into anything more until everything comes out. The records, the CVR, and what happened in the flight deck is truly shocking. They hit a negative 4 G dive initialy on the FOs push. All you hear is stuff hitting the ceiling and at one point a loud thud. They think the thud may have been the JS hitting the ceiling and maybe not wearing the shoulder harness. Like I said, I won’t get into anything more about the background of how it all happened. This is the accident in a nutshell. The facts that will come out are shocking. I understand the pitch up illusion (and in this case, reality, at least to 10 degrees) you get when going TOGA in the clouds. But how can you possibly pitch down to 49 degrees in response?? I don't care if you were trained only on Cessna's before this flight ... you don't even do this in a Cessna! If this is at all true, and if the FO didn't do that intentionally, it boggles the mind. |
When the FO called for flaps 1, the captain accidentally hit the toga button. Toga didn’t engage until after flaps were set to 1, which then brought engine power to full, and started the initial pitch of 10 degrees nose up. Sounds like spacial disorientation strikes again :(. |
Somatogravic Illusion I’ve experienced it once at night and I can tell you it is almost totally overwhelming. I can easily imagine the FO (due to the large acceleration) believing he was pitching very high nose up and ‘instinctively’ pushing forward. That increases acceleration which makes the illusion even worse, so you want to push forward even more. By this stage he would have been in cognitive overload and totally unresponsive to the CA’s desperate attempts at recovery. |
Read the link posted by jimtx. Crews seem to be pushed way over the limits, so I don‘t think that anything can be ruled out by the fact that the accident happened during daytime. |
Originally Posted by tdracer
(Post 10426016)
I suspect the stated sequence is a bit off - i.e. the captain selected flaps 1, then bumped TOGA. TOGA is armed as soon as 'flaps not stowed' is true which would happen almost immediately after flaps 1 selected.
Sounds like spacial disorientation strikes again :(. |
IIRC, on all aircraft I've flown that had TOGA switches, the buttons are inset, to prevent accidental activation. That means a digit has to be inserted into the cup to select TOGA, not just bumping against the switch.
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