Has someone had the time and opportunity to look at the weather in detail ?
Early on a jetstream was reported of 110+ knots.
Can anyone confirm that ... for the LKP ?
FR gave 33.6757 028.7924 ... had someone read an official statement giving an LKP ?

There was not even an initiative from the crew required, obviously Greek ATC tried to contact them for a while, but they did not respond. Time may not have been the issue...

<<Perhaps one engine may have flamed out, causing the crew to exit 90 degrees from the airway whilst trying to restart the engine.>>

Is this now standard procedure?

Greek air safety authorities deny EgyptAir wreckage found
 

Hotel Tango. You say that That's true. But the point is that we have no evidence as to when, or even if, such problems did occur in that time. On the other hand, we have fairly strong circumstantial evidence that something was going wrong during that last 2 minutes and 40 seconds before the "the flight signal was lost from radar", as the Hellenic CAA put it. That's because, during that time, 804 was not responding to repeated calls from Athinai ACC.

39 minutes earlier, the CAA saysWhat that surely suggests is that this was not an instantaneous event that immediately incapacitated the crew. It was, rather, something that caused the crew to be taking some kind of, perhaps desperate, action during those 2minutes and 40seconds - and perhaps for longer than that.



Edited to add:
....or I suppose it could suggest that the crew had been incapacitated, and that, for those 2 mins 40 secs, the aircraft was flying itself.

Really?


"France: Document shows fear of radical airport workers as early as 2004"
France: Document shows fear of radicalized airport workers - CNN.com

Cut and paste from the EgypttAir Website....

EGYPTAIR FLIGHT MS 804
The Missing Aircraft of EGYPTAIR Flight number MS 804 PARIS CAIRO
19/05/2016
CAIRO – May 19, 2016 – EGYPTAIR resource stated that the Egyptian Ministry of Civil Aviation has just received an official letter from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declaring the finding of wreckage of the missing aircraft No. MS 804 near Karpathos Island. EGYPTAIR sincerely conveys its deepest sorrow to the families and friends of the passengers onboard Flight MS804. Family members of passengers and crew have been already informed and we extend our deepest sympathies to those affected. Meanwhile, the Egyptian Investigation Team in co-operation with the Greek counterpart are still searching for other remains of the missing plane. For more information,please call 080077770000 within Egypt Or +20225989320 international

Having been a first officer on a KC-135R, and having experienced an engine shutdown on my #3 engine, followed by a fire warning on #1 (determined to be erroneous while my Captain was issuing our MAYDAY call), while almost 400-miles from the nearest adequate runway, I, for one, was more than glad to have had that flight engineer's carcass stationed four feet from my back.

Stuff happens, and it sometimes gets damned busy in the cockpit. That third set of eyes, and ears is often priceless, no matter what the bean counters say.

it's highly unlikely that the Greek airforce reconnaissance planes operating out of Iraklio and Chania in Crete didn't find any debris for a full day in a well-known area for a full day under good weather conditions. If there is any.

I've found that in that neck of the woods, pilots often just move onto the next freq without being handed off. Well known radio 'dead-zone' in that part of the Med when talking to Cairo. Often had to wait 10-20 mins before getting hold of them, even at FL450....if you dont get stepped on or ignored...

Flt deck policy
 

Does anyone know whether in aftermath of German Wings, Egypt Air adopted a no single flight deck crew SOP, like many EU operators did ? In this case we're looking at an about 10 min before of top of descent, into a good 4 hour flight. Just thinking...

The ATC timeline seems to add a lot of useul informacion. We know thebpilots werent communicating for at least 2 mins prior to disappearin off radar. Its stretching the boundaries of probability that this is coincidente. Something stopped them talking.

However, during this perio the plane was flying normally therefore, this seems to discount a sudden bomb planted at the airport. If a bomb went ofd you dont get 2 mins straigjt and level then disappear. Something happened inside the plane. Of course who know it could have been fire leading to loss of comms that thwn ruptured the plane. Only one of so many possible theories rigt now.

"I, for one, was more than glad to have had that flight engineer's carcass stationed four feet from my back"

I have never seen a dedicated FE station on any KC 135, much less a flight engineer? What am I missing? Also never heard the term F/O when speaking of an Air Force pilot on a KC135?

reported about 25 minutes ago - Greece's lead air accident investigator Athanasios Binis said the wreckage found near the Greek island of Karpathos was not from the Airbus A320.
But earlier, Egyptian officials said debris from the jet had been found.

and

Kumbi is the waypoint that the aircraft last crossed, and shortly thereafter it exploded.
Karpathos is 129 NM distance, in the opposite direction of travel.
That is quite a distance for wreckage to drift to. Hardly believable.

"A senior U.S. intelligence official familiar with the U.S. capabilities in the region told NBC News the cause of the crash remains unclear, but infrared and multispectral imagers indicate strongly there was an explosion on the flight. "

neiva 83 (and others), the 2 minutes is in my mind irrelevant. The last known TX was 02:48. What if ATC had tried to contact them at say 03:10? Do we know if they would have responded then? All we know is that there was no response at 03:27 only because that was the time ATC called them, without success.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=asgQ9ERvCBQ&feature=share

S&r today footage

still people typically do not stop communicating before a sudden explosion occurs... No matter whether 40 or 2 Minutes, it is quite strange that "it exploded" shortly after an unsuccessful attempt to contact the aircraft.
It would be very, very unlikely that failure of communication equipment / incapacitation of the crew and an explosion both happen purely accidentially on the same flight...

Something more happened before the aircraft "suddenly" disappeared. The CVR may tell

Lloydslist.com at 1437 for Oceanus input.

Grains of Salt Advised
 

Source of the above: NBC news Live Blog. A further excerpt demonstrates how much noise gets added to signal ...
Was it necessary for "a senior US Intelligence official" to open his mouth on this? No. Sharing such info as can be shared with Egypt/Greece/France (et al) can be done via the usual channels without using the news as a vehicle.

Was it necessary for "a U.S. administration official" to offer the "what does it mean" noise? No. (Sadly, feeding the 24/7 news cycles seems to be all that some 'officials' are good for :mad: )

Hijack
 

If this was a mid air explosion then very likely debris would have been found by now. The med is a pretty busy place after all especially close to the islands. This seems more like a hijacking, by crew or pax. - aircraft disappearing etc sounds all to familiar. Hijacking and crash or hijacking and evade. Take your choice. Until there are pieces floating in the sea my bet is on evade.

BBC reporting no wreckage found yet and Egypt has apparently retracted earlier statements.

I hope we're not going to be facing another 'fading pinger' scenario when they search for the CVDR from the bottom of the Med.

Consistent with info on Lloyd's list (from your link)

@anengineer: on the pinger score, the prospects are more hopeful than with MH370 (presuming it works) due to no delay / red herring as with that case, the greater amount of radar coverage in the area, and the proximity of airports/ports/etc much nearer. A far better LKP (well, datum, there's a smaller AoP) gives all of the search effort better chances, to include the more exotic equipment needed for the very deep water in the area.

Just my $.02
 

I don't think there is a significance about the lack of handover loss of communications.

That area has been known to have silent spots and sometimes you just have to fly until you hear Cairo and give them a call.

Maybe they didn't hear the Greeks, and had already changed to a Cairo frequency. I'm sure they knew what frequency they were going to be assigned.

I would go along with an earlier poster, that a device was installed at a location where security might not be as tough as CDG.

It could have been detonated by a timer (they really don't care when it blows), or by someone on board.

Look back at the crash out of Sharm El Sheikh.....many thought that was a trial run.

If loss of communication is that common in this area, why did the greek ATC started to communicate on the emergency frequency?
Is it that common, that aircraft enter egypt FIR without explicit clearance from Cairo?
(it very may well be possible, I´m just curious)

Aircraft have been doing it for years. It is just a handover.

@Volume
 

Yes, it happens regularly.

They may have started the emergency drill due to their SOP's.

Couple of points picked up reading these comments and not making any wild accusations or suggestions just need to know.

Early comments suggest that ADS-B coverage in the area is flaky... this is not borne out when viewing real time FR24 coverage or a replay of the movements at the supposed time of the accident. All returns are solid except for MS804 and one other, briefly mentioned earlier but since ignored, UAE194.

There is, according to FR24, a definite conflict with MSR804 heading 147deg and alt 36,975' and UAE194 heading101deg at 37,000' All things being equal TCAS should have been screaming in RA mode... could it be that the hard left turn and rapid descent by MSR804 was initiated in response to an RA warning? Or even in an 'Oh ****' response to a sudden visual appearance of a B777 filling his windscreen just 25 ft above... (assuming high accuracy of the reporting altimeters...)
Strangely the FR24 trace on UAE 194 disappears shortly after the conflict... all other FR24 tracks are solid throughout, no 'flakyness.'

Outlandish suggestion? Tinfoil Hat time? No more than many other suggestions being made here... All too often these days political expediency seems to take priority over reality.

PhalconPhixer
 

I'm curious about UAE194. I haven't seen any of the ADS-B info

There are no airways in that area that would cause a 101 degree heading, so where was UAE194 coming from and going to?

Also, if Egyptair was on a 147 heading and UAE was on a 101 heading there would not be a "head-on" situation.

Not saying your premise is not correct, but just asking.

Thanks for your input.

Othe EK flight was not actually being tracked, but on replay it is tracked because it joins the last point and then when it is tracked again and joins the 2, it was not actually in that area

No an RA can never command a turn.

@Phalconphixer. I like you theorie, but they would have been able to send our an emergency call. which here was not the case. And there was no collision like in Uberlingen.

UAE194 has landed by now. So it would seem logical that someone has asked whether the flight was uneventful or otherwise.

Even the SLF might have noticed a sudden climb or descent at about the right time.

UAE194
 

I just researched UAE194 on Flightaware.

There is a lot lot of data missing during the flights that were operated through that area.

The UAE194 on 16 may actually has it going north to Greece, then back south to resume what looks like a normal path.

I also looked on FR24. it looks like they usually enter HECA airspace at Salun and go over El Daba. Nowhere near MS804.

@notapliot15
 

Since this happened to an Egyptian Airliner in Egyptian airpace, the facts may never be known. IMHO.

This is a great forum for speculations of all types. Sometimes the "off the wall" stuff is true.

Nobody has mentioned a meteor strike yet......... :-)

@OBD?

Strange huh? seems some tracker software unable to drop erroneous position data. In your example 200nm North followed by another 200nm South, all potition nicely connected, all in a matter of minutes ?
UAE gone Supersonic ? :p

@vmandr
 

It looks like the ADS-B for the area around the northern Cairo FIR is just not reliable.

Having flown that area a lot (a long time ago), the equipment to get the ADS-B is probably still not there.

I know from friends flying in those areas now that radio communications have not changed much.