The site of the Swiftair flight 5017 crash was found via satellite within a few hours of it going down, unfortunately it took some time for anyone to actually go look there.

We even still - half a year after incident - don't have any positive conclusion from Egyptians led investigation, no officially presented case (or versions). Also Russian aviation and security authority still flying back and forth, checking "improvements" in Egypt airport security... (On the other hands, why bothers if they not officially agreed that it was terrorist act?).

More images
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http://s32.postimg.org/6qqmm0g5d/image.jpg

By "Construction" are you referring to design (as in FBW systems) or structural systems? The Air Indonesia A320 losss, and the AF 447(A330) loss have similar FBW systems (if not identical), but your using the term "construction" has me puzzled. I don't see a history of A320's having high altitude structural failures (unlike the DeHavilland Comet of yore).

To "call it terrorism" there will first have to be certain evidence when the CVR and FDR are recovered. I have faith that those will be found and recovered. There's a small enough datum, and the location is not too far from where suitably equipped vessels can begin an underwater search for those "pings" that were so hard to find for MH370.
We can't yet know how many nations' submarines may be either in the area or on their way to assist in the acoustic search for the pings from those recorders ... but I suspect numerous nations have already offered that assistance.


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...g-live-8003059
Last point, the Mirror seems to have published a belated PIREP for the area near this lost contact:

When you say 'another A320 down with the same pattern', you're absolutely correct. No distress calls and a sudden end.

MetroJet - was blown up
GermanWings - was deliberately crashed
AirAsia - a complex incident but reailting in a LOCi.

Three very different accidents. None which would suggest to me there's a hidden flaw.

No axe to grind at all.

It averages 14 million hours per accident and there are more than 3000 in service so whatever is the cause the chance that there is a conspirancy to hide a significant design flaw is as close to zero as to be indistinguishable.

Coincident with what the French press has published (French local time here):


<li class="SL_C_42861773_4">23 h 09 : le vol MS804 quitte le terminal aéroportuaire Paris-Charles-de-Gaulle et décolle dix minutes plus tard. Il est prévu qu'il atterrisse au Caire à 3 h 15.<li class="SL_C_42861773_5 Edit Creator42861773">Vers 1 h 50 : le pilote de l'avion est en contact avec un contrôleur aérien grec, alors que l'appareil se trouve au-dessus de l'île de Kéa. Le pilote n'indique alors aucun problème, rapporte l'aviation civile grecque.
<li class="SL_C_42861773_10 Edit Creator42861773">2 h 26 : l'avion s'apprête à sortir de l'espace aérien grec en volant à 37 000 pieds. Le contrôleur grec tente de contacter le pilote, comme l’exige la réglementation, pour lui signaler qu'il s'apprête à rentrer dans l'espace aérien égyptien, sans succès. <li class="SL_C_42861773_17_31637068 Edit Creator42861773">2 h 29 : l'appareil est entré dans l'espace aérien égyptien. Le pilote ne répond pas aux communications du contrôleur.<li class="SL_C_42861773_45_83144587 Edit Creator42861773">2 h 37 : l'appareil effectue deux virages brutaux (à 90° sur la gauche puis de 360° sur la droite) et chute de 22 000 pieds selon le ministre de la défense grec.<li class="SL_C_42861773_73_44826289 Edit Creator42861773">2 h 39 : les contacts radar avec l'appareil sont perdus.


In any case, here is my doubt: what happened in that 10 minute silence between the last contact attempt by Greek controllers and the plane beginning to turn and subsequenly fall?

I can confirm this . A life jacket was found and a debris of a plane seat.

Sky News website reports "A Greek frigate searching for an EgyptAir jet which disappeared between Paris and Cairo has discovered two large floating objects in the Mediterranean.Greek defence officials told Reuters pieces of white and red plastic and two life jackets were spotted close to an area where a transponder signal was emitted earlier."

It's a big planet, and much of this surveillance is focused on specific, mission critical bandwidths that don't necessarily include civilian aircraft hulls, to avoid data overload. It's impossible to see everything, everywhere, all of the time.

Got it, lack of professionalism ... does the number you use include those who died in the metrojet loss?

Who is in command of the search?
 

Who (what agency or military) has taken command and control of the search?
Sounds as if there are a lot of vessels steaming those waters...who coordinates?

If we assume skymarshals are a potential threat then we must surely accept that pilots and cabin crew represent an equal risk? Actually a greater one in the ratio of 6:3.

It's rather amusing to think that some observers seem to think that it is only the presence of firearms that present a threat.

Not so?

None of us will have any semblance of a clue until the flight data recorders are dug up. Anything else is speculative at best, but we all know it's mostly drivel.

With regards to having every 'right' to a professional discussion, you do realise this is the internet right?

Wageslave: Not amusing at all really - the obvious point is that we cannot any longer suppose that all flight crew, cabin crew and passengers had self preservation as a given. This kind of discussion would have been unbelievable 30 years ago. Now we have these selfish zealots poisoning everything we took as sacrosanct.
No matter what the actual cause of this particular accident , we all now suspect everyone else.

Does the Airbus autopilot perform a pre-programmed emergency descent with loss of cabin pressure? The 90 degree turn followed by level off at 10000 ft (if true) is similar to what I have seen with a different type aircraft.

Is leaving airway at 90 degrees still a radio failure procedure? and a 360 an attention getter? after that things must have got more seriously wrong.

Do Egyptair PICs have discretion on whom is allowed to enter the flight deck?

It might have a bearing if one of the wings had been blown off/separated!:confused:

Is it premature to offer a "well done" to all of those folks who pitched in for the search effort?

Lonewolf50 - I think you have to admire and support anyone involved in searches and recoveries like these, so in that sense not premature.

Wreckage is not the same as "wreck" though.

Wreckage, seafloor position location, wreck, lift and recovery is the sequence they still have to go through.

Greek CAA press release

Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority - News

no uncerfa or alerfa but immediate distress. well done for that controller.

It wouldn't have been completely unbelievable 30 years ago. 1982 had JAL 350, which was a clear case of "suicide by pilot".

I don't think this turn was an attention getter. Remember no distress call was made which sounds very much like something went seriously wrong very quickly with no spare thinking capacity with nice 90 degree turns with consideration for others in the airway :(

Something either made the aircraft go into a violent left turn with attempts to gain control I keep thinking of the earlier Airbus rudder/tail damage

Some aircraft will bank as part of an emergency decent but not sure what the procedure is in the A320 and still you would not bank to a 90 degree turn

There is still the possibility of so many things its all guesswork even to a cargo fire or explosion interfering with control

They need the blackbox is that 15000 feet down or in shallower water ?

vmandr's link is to the official website of the Greek CAA , think it is helpful to put the full text here:


19 MAY2016 EGYPTAIR FLIGHT MSR 804 - HELLENIC REPUBLIC - MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND NETWORKS - CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY GOVERNOR Athens, May 19, 2016 PRESS RELEASE

SUBJECT: EGYPTAIR FLIGHT MSR 804

Egypt Air flight MSR 804, A320 en route from Paris to Cairo entered ATHINAI FIR at 02:24 am local time. It was Radar identified and cleared by the competent Air Traffic Controller for the flight path.

At 02:48 am local time, the flight was transferred to the next Area Control Center Sector and was cleared by the ATC for the exit point of ATHINAI FIR. The pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek.

At 03:27 am local time, ATHINAI Area Control Center tried to communicate with the flight for transfer of communication and control from ATHINAI FIR to CAIRO FIR.

Despite the repetitive calls, the flight did not respond and thus the Air Traffic Controller called on the emergency frequency without response.

At 03:29 am local time the flight was over the boundary point, between ATHINAI and CAIRO FIRs.

At 03:29:40 am local time the flight signal was lost from radar, almost 7 NM south/southeast from KUMBI point (boundary point, between ATHINAI and CAIRO FIRs), within Cairo FIR.

Immediate assistance of the Hellenic Air Force radars was requested for possible target tracking, with no avail.

At 03:45 am local time Search and Rescue (SAR) operations were activated through JRCC (Joint Rescue Coordination Center), NAOP (National Air Operations Center) and ADIC (Air Defense Information Center),while updating the Egyptian Civil Aviation Authorities.

As a response to lost of cabin pressure at FL37, turning 90 degrees off the airway prior to a rapid decent to 10,000 feet make sense. I do wonder if the quoted figures of 90 and 360 degrees from the Greek Defense Minister are actual figures, suggesting pilot control, or rounded numbers which suggest more precision/control than random numbers would.

'Near Karpathos island' seems a long way from where the Oceanus and other vessels are searching.

I presume they will conduct a methodical search along the track north of the located debris field.

At this point, an uncontained catastrophic engine failure cannot be ruled out.

But the last definite radio contact with the aircraft was at 02:48. Therefore, there's in fact 40 odd minutes unaccounted for before it went down.

Sequence reads;

0327 ATC tries to contact aircraft some 2 minutes from FIR boundary, and one assumes continues to call on working freq and Guard for next 2 mins or more.

0329 a/c crosses FIR boundary with no response to ATC - something is amiss in board.

40 seconds later something triggers a turn and rapid descent.

That ain't no coincidence the timing is just too cute. Looks like someone is out to deliver a nasty message to Egypt by the looks of it.

The turn and descent look not unlike a rapid depressurisation drill, not an unreasonable possibility after unlawful interference of a violent nature.

The FDR will be quickly recovered in those depths. We'll know soon enough.

Somewhere between 2 and 3000m in the area. "Herodotus Abyssal Plain".

SaturnV - I can't think of an instance of an I contained engine failure bringing a plane down. QF in Singapore was a pretty catastrophic failure but the plane got down.

DC10s and IL62s have history of a catastrophic engine failure bring the plane down but in modern history I can't think of an example.

HT

why 'unaccounted' ? it was under POSITIVE radar contact, till the hand-over time to Cairo ACC / UIR boundary, and a little longer.


"The pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek." that is, in good mood, as far as the controller could tell.

It is a psychologically fundamental need to want to know of a serious incident as soon as possible. For obvious reasons. Whether in antiquity there were wolves around the sheep pen or a pilot next into an aircraft the need remains the same. It is impossible to override this need for immediate information and best if we dont even try.

Much of it will be misinformed, some wrong, some right and some untruthful, but we (as in humans rather than specialist professions) do have a knack for sorting out relevant information. Psychologically that is what we need to do. This site provides such informed information.

Here we go again.... Deja vu from Metrojet thread.

After theories of engine failures, the tail breaking off, loss of cabin pressure, we are now just waiting for the theory about lithium batteries in the hold/ cabin.

I could cut and paste previous posts on Metrojet.

3 probable causes;

1- Terrorism
2- Deliberate actions in the Flight Deck (could be combined with 1 above)
3 -LOC (as per Air Asia)

The wreckage, passenger bodies (RIP) and later, the CVR/ DFDR will confirm one of the above.

As it is an Egyptian carrier, out of Paris, at the border of the FIR, No.1 looks to be the more likely.

You forgot about Siberia Airlines Flight 1812

So, it is 4 probable causes

Rumors
 

First time, long time. I am not a pilot but currently working with the federal government of Egypt very closely on a large project there. I have dealt directly with members of the country's cabinet recently, although not in matters related to aviation.

There are people here that have said we should wait for more clear facts about the crash to arise before speculating. I'm going to take a wild guess that many of those people reside and in and have generally spent more of their professional lives in a developed country such an North America or Europe.

When dealing with this culture, integrity and facts simply are not valued in the same manner as they might be in other cultures, and I might imagine that this might have an impact of activities like an accident investigation. Face saving abounds in this culture. The regime also currently has taken widespread criticism over free speech in Egypt.

In the face of this, while I'm not a pilot and am in great admiration of the technical capacity, professionalism, and sense of mission of many on this blog, I have to disagree with those who seek to stifle debate about the events surrounding the apparent crash of this plane. In events like MS804 I think this blog and information like it actually serves as a helpful counterweight to forces within the country that might seek to limit a full explanation of the facts for a variety of reasons. I hope this continues.

vmandr, unaccounted in as much as whatever may have developed prior to loss of radar contact at 03:29 may have occured at any time from the last radio TX from the aircraft at 02:48. It was only when ATC initiated a routine change of frequency TX at 03:27 that they realised there was no comm with the a/c. That doesn't mean that any problems the crew may have encountered was at that precise moment. It could have been any time after 02:48.