If you look at the Fightaware plots for previous days, there is consistency in the data. Noteably, there is ADS-B coverage for the entire sector...for previous flights. So ADS-B coverage is complete and the flight hasn't gone into a ADS-B 'blindspot' and then failed to come out again. It has just stopped transmitting ADS-B data. From then on Flightaware asesses it's expected position unless it receives further real data from the aircraft, which in this case it never did.

Everything so far would point to sabotage as the obvious - but as we know that isn't always the case. However, it if were to be I doubt the Egyptian airspace is a direct corrolation to this as the only way such a system would work would be on a GPS reliant system. If it is sabotage, it's more likely based on a timer or an altitude as we've seen previously - was the aircraft beginning to descend?

It may have been timed to occur based on a calculation when it entered said airspace but not directly related to it entering said airspace, if that makes sense.

Regardless, it raises concerns about security at CDG if it was the case. Was the aircraft on the ground long at CDG? The time of this is also important - just as the West begins it's holiday "Season" which would have substantial consequences for Egypt's already severely damaged tourism industry.

Probably not relevant to the incident itself, but there is some confusion here between Egyptian airspace and the Egyptian FIR. In most cases FIR's will extend well beyond the generally agreed 12nms which is the extent of territorial airspace, and beyond that limit is international airspace. I'm assuming most on here already know that, but it's as well to use the correct terminology.

Timer device ex Cairo (in wheel-well IED) that gets it through Paris and after departure CDG, completes the circuit to the barometric device that then initiates on descent Cairo. Not rocket science at all - but diverts attention to a security problem at Charles de Gaulle airport (when it's really a Cairo-based initiative and perp).

Just like Metrojet 9268. In that case a US infrared satellite apparently detected a heat flash which could have been either an exploding fuel tank or a bomb explosion. It seems the satellite imagery also ruled out a missile attack. So, it will be interesting to see what they come up with this time.

Have you got any source for this statement?

A note on the aeronautical geography,
UL612 runs between SITIA VOR, (located at the SE end of Crete), and BALTIM VOR, (located on the coast, mid-way between Alexandria and Port Said). BALTIM is 70nm NNW of HECA.
Waypoint KUMBI is on UL612, at the boundary with Athinai (LGGG), and Cairo (HECC), FIRs, 151nm SE of SATIA VOR. It is 248nm NW of HECA.

@chucko It was 16km into Egyptian airspace, 280KM from the Egyptian coast.

Mawkish
 

PPrune should perhaps not allow a thread to start on a crash incident until 48 hours after the event. It might stop the torrent of morbid drivel that we seem to get when an incident is first reported. From the prize to see who can start the thread to those suggesting causes when the aircraft hasn't even been confirmed as down - it's like a plane-spotters' morbid conspiracy-fest. It's notable how few comments immediately after a 'crash' becomes news seem to come from professional pilots. Presumably because they wait for the acts to emerge before spouting forth.

Greek media report that the airbus 320 had fallend vertically from 37000 ft to 9000 ft, and then a few seconds later it disappeared from radars.
src:EgyptAir: ?? ?????????? ?????? «??????????» ??? ?? 37.000 ??? 9.000 ?????

A note on the aeronautical geography,
UL612 runs between SITIA VOR, (located at the SE end of Crete), and BALTIM VOR, (located on the coast, mid-way between Alexandria and Port Said). BALTIM is 70nm NNW of HECA.
Waypoint KUMBI is on UL612, at the boundary with Athinai (LGGG), and Cairo (HECC), FIRs, 151nm SE of SATIA VOR. It is 248nm NW of HECA.
____________________________________________________________ _________________________

For sure KUMBI isn't a top of descent

Greek Media

The Governor of Hellenic Civil Aviation, Konstantinos Litzerakos, described the moments before the EgyptAir aircraft disappeared from radar.
“According to standard practice, when an aircraft enters another FIR, air traffic controllers of the previous FIR contact the pilot to inform him that he will communicate with the traffic controllers of the next FIR. That’s what our traffic controllers did, but the pilot of EgyptAir did not respond” Mr. Litzerakos said.
“The traffic controller continued calling the pilot, but with no result. At 3:29 and when the aircraft was flying in Cairo’s FIR the aircraft disappeared from radar, “he said adding: “We notified the Egyptian authorities, they did not know anything”.
Traffic controller spoke to the pilot over the island of Kea, in what was thought to be the last broadcast from the aircraft, but “The pilot did not mention any problems,” Mr. Litzerakos said.

Normal for that route at that point - well known "dead spot" lasting for about 10 minutes.

I bet the same.

Likely wasn't ex-Cairo before CDG, flightradar24 has SU-GCC visiting Tunis & Asmara in Eritrea on May 18 before flying the return from Paris to Cairo.......but your theory is therefore still very feasible.

What was the time lapse from the frequency change r/t transmission by Greek ATC and the eventual radar disappearance at 03:29?

An ADS-B "blindspot" in this context simply means that there isn't an enthusiast with a receiver within range of the flight, capturing data for Flightaware.

Likewise, the fact that previous days' plots are shown as continuous doesn't mean continuous data capture, all the enthusiast ADS-B networks use interpolation/extrapolation to some extent.

To put it another way, the precise point at which today's flight suffered a catastrophe can't be inferred with any certainty from what has been published by the flight tracking networks.

Lots of "weather was fine" comments in press etc. Actually on my forecast charts I can see a 110kts jet stream FL350 flowing west to east, exactly at the location of lost contact.

Podcast, the SBIRS satellites are designed to detect an ICBM launch and, coincidently, can sometimes detect the flash of an explosion in the upper atmosphere - if one of the 5 LEO birds is over the right area. As far as I am aware, nobody is suggesting MH370 exploded.

We had real-time telemetry of the moon landing and 47 years ago, right upto the moment of (soft) impact with the lunar surface.

And we sit here looking at text from the news channels to try to find out what hapenned more than 5 hours ago.

The technology is there, has been discussed to death. It's not a problem with volume of data either, as has been discussed and agreed on this forum.

Did Greek authorities say anything about when exactly they identified that there was a problem. I vaguely remember that following the Helios accident in Athens, internal ATC procedures were revised or should be revised according to the recommendations of the accident report such as to act substantially more quickly in case of loss of radio contact.

A German containership is currently helping in the search operation.

I wonder what the primary and secondary radar coverage is like in the KUMBI area, given that it is 151nm from Crete and about 160nm from the nearest point on the coast of Egypt?

High probability of floating debris to be found before the day is out. More will be known then.

The named "rumour section" of a named "rumour network". And yet still the eternal complaints against the presence of rumour. Laughable if not so tedious, and space-wasting. Rather like this.

Imagine a jigsaw puzzle with six pieces.

1. Egyptair.
2. In the Cruise with no abnormalities.
3. WX good.
4. France/Egypt.
5. ISIL Threats towards Egyptians/Westerners.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out the likely sixth piece. It also doesn't take a genius to know the Egyptians will deny it till they are blue in the face (much form in the area).

Of course it was Ex-Cairo before CDG, it's an Egyptair aircraft ! They don't have rights to fly Asmara - Tunis - Paris - Cairo. When they say it had been to Tunis and Asmara before this flight I think there's an assumption of a degree of understanding that what is meant is the aircraft flew from Cairo to Asmara and back, then Cairo - Tunis and back then to Paris and was on the return leg to it's home base when it disappeared.

Surely the Americans have some serious radar coverage in that end of the Mediterranean???

Where it had previously flown
 

The BBC has a good graphic of its immediately previous flights...

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experie...ff67dd70f5.png

A quote from Frank Gardner - the BBC's security correspondent:-

I trust his words more than most!

Greek Defence Minister saying plane made "sharp turns and a descent" before disappearing.

Sky report Greek defence minister saying it made a 90 degree left turn, followed by a reversal and a 360 degree right turn before leaving radar cover. Presumably a primary radar report from AD radar as it doesn't show on ADSB. Presumably indicating whatever happened resulted in either loss of electrical power to the ADSB or someone in the cockpit turning it off.

@Zooker

KARPATHOS 352900N 0271000E MSSR has a nominal 200+ nm range, so theoretically, covers an area beyond LGGG UIR and Karpathos-KUMBI is 101 nm.

Forget about ADSB. It's not reliable in the area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_123
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contin...ss_Flight_2574
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indone...ia_Flight_8501

.. plenty of other explanations, sadly.

True that UK and Russia have cancelled all their flights to Egypt for the time being due to security concerns?

I note the Oceanus bulk carrier is stll in the area and from its track it is stopping regularly. This vessel has four deck cranes and would be perfect to recover any floating debris regardless of size and has deck hatches to place anything recovered on to.

AIS Vessel Tracking - AIS Positions Maps | AIS Marine Traffic

Speculation on this is soul destroying. So much rubbish being banded about that people will believe that will be proven to be complete codswallop when the evidence is found and interpreted.

On board maersk ahram search and rescue area
http://s32.postimg.org/x7r20o81t/image.jpg

http://s32.postimg.org/tnma8iuv5/image.jpg