Suppose the bomb is somewhere near the aft cargo door and ruptures the fuselage, enough to break tail lose, most of luggage will clear the hold instantly and be spared of fire which should mostly be around fuel tanks in the wings and center of a/c.

Daily Mail Expat
 

Heyy Mr. Expart! Where are the seats.Did this bus kinda evaporate mostly before hitting that turf?

If you go through the videos of the crash area, you can see sections of floor with 2 or 3 rows of seats still attached. They are isolated so suggests they came from aft of the wing.

I really hate to speculate ahead of the proper investigation, but something looks a little strange so I'm going to risk being (probably rightly) jeered at and mention it.

The photos of the crash site seem to show and extremely low-energy impact. There are no signs of a horizontal velocity at all - the wings seemed to have burned out (as you'd expect), but they appear to have been essentially intact when they arrived at their current location. The forward fuselage wreckage is lying in alignment with, and barely disconnected from, the wings. There is no classical "arrowhead" shape to the debris field, and there are no scrape-marks in the ground where the aeroplane came to a stop, which seems to suggest it dropped vertically and hit perfectly flat.

If the forward section of the fuselage had detached (sending the CG aft) this could be feasible (as for the impact site of development Typhoon DA6 in Spain), but this would need a wing and tail to still be both together and well-attached. If the theory is that this aeroplane broke-up at altitude, losing most of its tail in the process, then the CG would have gone forwards and there would have been no opposing/stabilising effect from the tailplane. So I would have expected it to either settle into a vertical dive or (if the CG fortuitously ended up in a certain very narrow range) a steady diving glide [probably inverted, due to the effect of the wing camber]. The wreckage configuration isn't really consistent with either of these scenarios - am I missing something?

PDR

Really... ! The conspiracy theories begin :)

inadequate repairs post-tail-strike ...
 

The tail strike occurred when the plane was being leased from ILFC (by MEA). Hardly Metrojet's fault.

In any case ILFC should know how to get a decent repair job done to protect the value of their asset.

Debris Map
 

Quick google map of the debris field based on images posted on the Daily Mail website.

MAP Here

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/tD...M=w614-h646-no

the Lockerbie debris field was very large. i used to go fishing the rivers around there and 9 months after the crash there were several woods that were taped off and we were told strickly no way should we enter as they had not been searched. that area was newcastleton which must be 30-40 km away from lockerbie

Tailstrikes
 

On the tailstrike issue: Presumably some of these impacts involve a lot of energy. Even if a good repair is done and no corrosive liquids are leaking etc.,, does that preclude less obvious damage, i.e. microscopic stress fractures at a distance from the tail, caused by the original impact?

Someone posted a pic of A321 dated May 2015 in SSH showing possible crack/damage on lower part of rudder ...


http://ura.ru/images/news/upload/new...2cf6402f9f.jpg


http://ura.ru/images/news/upload/new...2cf6402f9f.jpg

Wouldn't that 'crack' at the base of the rudder have been assessed during the recent major inspection?

"Someone posted a pic of A321 dated May 2015 in SSH showing possible crack/damage on lower part of rudder ... "

Static discharge across the hinge due to broken/missing bonding strap?

"Wouldn't that 'crack' at the base of the rudder have been assessed during the recent major inspection?"

Yes, should have been addressed on recent D check.

Wouldnt it make all sense if the cargo door wasnt locked properly? As I assume from the debries it is rather a Bomb induced structual disintegration.

G-CPTN, it would have definitely been checked.

Guys, what does at least one of the pilots do at the very beginning of every sector? A walk-around! We do not just walk around and see if the LH engine is there and the HS is still nailed on. We check the aircraft over thoroughly and in a low lit environment, we use a torch.

If the pilot walking around would have spotted a defect with the aircraft, then they would have not decided to fly. If, and this is a big if, the crew discussed the defect and decided to fly on to LED, then the conversation would have been picked up by the CVR.

Nevertheless, the debris will be analysed for any foreign fragments (i.e. parts of a bomb) and the debris will also be tested for any microscopic scarring caused by a bomb blast. The investigators will also be verifying who worked at the airport that day and who was able to gain access to the aircraft, including ground staff, pax, crew, an aviation inspector perhaps?

oleostrut

Would be an option, but hydraulic fluid leak traces are evidence of bigger problem perhaps...

..unlikely, IF, and this is another big IF, they left the RCDR, CTL P/Btn to AUTO..

If put to ON, it allows CVR to work with engines OFF, otherwise CVR works with first engine ON only..

Available images
 

When you take the available pictures and make a 2D mosaic reconstruction, and only use the sections, components and parts whose identity you sure of, you get a surprisingly completely picture. But some major items are missing.

The main items missing appear to be:

a.The seats ( i have not seen a single one, and only one forgotten passenger-seat-cushion ). Which shows respect for the passengers. On some photos you can see part of the cabin seat-rails.

b.The other are the long fuselage section(s) from behind the wing to the window before the last passenger door.

c.The horizontal stabilizer and the rudder.

d.The APU.

Without these items i would not even start an 'early analysis'(speculating).

So i wonder if anyone has found pictures that can fill in these blanks.

ricfly744
If it was not reported, how does anyone know about it?
Not reported to whom?
Not reported by whom?

Kulverstukas
(Interesting in light of the report that this company is in serious arrears on payroll ... how's QA or QC doing under that environment?)

============

tatelyle
How is the Sinai a conflict zone?


Most interesting points (as one awaits some info on what was on the FDR) have been raised in re industry wide tail strikes from thecrozier and a few others. It may be some time before that factor is agreed as having been germane, or not, in this case.

D check
 

AFAIK, recent C check on the EI-ETJ was performed in 2013. The picture showing the potential airframe (rudder) damage was taken in 2015.