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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 1st Nov 2015, 22:15
  #341 (permalink)  
 
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Look at the heat damage its linear running longitudinal along the line of the skin
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Old 1st Nov 2015, 22:29
  #342 (permalink)  
 
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Egyptian perhaps, but (Russian) MAK have a worldwide reputation and I would not for one second hesitate to accept their findings.
They can do a decent job if they are allowed to, but there are no guarantees that they won't be told to manipulate conclusions / sit on evidence for political reasons, and there are no reasons to think that they'd refuse to cooperate.

Personally, I'm still waiting for the final report on Tatarstan Airlines Flight 363 (hull loss with 50 fatalities in November 2013.) It's been almost two years, there has been no report, and the whole thing seems to have been either forgotten or intentionally buried by MAK.
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Old 1st Nov 2015, 22:46
  #343 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by hamster3null View Post
They can do a decent job if they are allowed to, but there are no guarantees that they won't be told to manipulate conclusions / sit on evidence for political reasons, and there are no reasons to think that they'd refuse to cooperate.

Personally, I'm still waiting for the final report on Tatarstan Airlines Flight 363 (hull loss with 50 fatalities in November 2013.) It's been almost two years, there has been no report, and the whole thing seems to have been either forgotten or intentionally buried by MAK.
AAIU have NEVER release a report regarding Ryanair Hull loss at Ciampino from 2008...
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Old 1st Nov 2015, 22:50
  #344 (permalink)  
 
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I saw the pic of the tail cone a page or two back..was there definitive HS seen?

I noted a pic on another site (no source) showing what looked like a stab in the middle of a huge burned area....does that seem right?

I thought the primary scorched area of debris was wing box and forward fuselage?
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Old 1st Nov 2015, 22:54
  #345 (permalink)  
 
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While looking at the altitude graph given by FR24 we should assume that data received by different ground stations is exactly what aircraft sent. Also there is no question about 4 station suddenly loosing correct timing.
Thus we see exactly what aircraft altitude sensors registered. If we speculatively exclude possibility that there was some electromagnetic disturbance that invalidated analog signals from altitude sensors, then these pressure fluctuations were registered at altitude sensors. One thing that could cause such a crazy fluctuation is an unusual attitude of altitude sensor port regarding airflow.
Also, sensors and computers and transmitter still had power and plane was still almost in one piece despite crazy attitudes.
It could be that there is not much useful data on CVR and FDR if breakup started from tail part.

Huh... now I speculated enough and have to stop
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Old 1st Nov 2015, 23:30
  #346 (permalink)  
 
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Is this really almost routine?

From the AP,

"We are all shocked. It was a good plane. Everything checked out in 35 minutes," the official told The Associated Press on Sunday. The closest the plane came to being in trouble, he said, was three months ago when the pilot aborted takeoff halfway through because of a system error. "That's almost routine though," he said.

Was it ever confirmed that the crew did or did not request to divert due to technical difficulties?

Last edited by b1lanc; 1st Nov 2015 at 23:58.
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 00:16
  #347 (permalink)  
 
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Does Metrojet subscribe to any ACARS services? There's been no reports of messages received.

Last edited by papershuffler; 2nd Nov 2015 at 01:45.
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 00:22
  #348 (permalink)  
 
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more sooted pieces

There is a RT video from forward part of wreckage shot from helicopter, it looks from there like wreckage is mostly undisturbed. At least bigger parts of it lie where they landed. No signs of heavy moving equipment around.
That suspicious piece of wreckage, can anyone identify where it belongs to?
It really looks like it got its fire damage before landing.

There is another suspicious piece with external soot on it. I identified it as a fuselage piece just from under second door. (from cockpit)

http://www.keri.ee/crash/siinai3.jpg

Last edited by Senior Pilot; 2nd Nov 2015 at 03:15. Reason: Image too large for PPRuNe
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 00:33
  #349 (permalink)  
 
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Perhaps understandably, the cockpit area has been disturbed:



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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 00:47
  #350 (permalink)  
 
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@thcrozier:

"What % of transport aircraft suffer tail strikes and are subsequently repaired and returned to service during their service lives?"

This question is very much on my mind today. We know of two terrible accidents in Asia attributed to failure of an improper rear bulkhead repair.

If (as now seems somewhat likely) the Metrojet catastrophe may be added to this list, then the major aviation regulatory bodies around the world will surely be pressed to take a fresh look at the hazards of major damage repairs to such a critical airframe structure.

If anyone has, or knows how to find, data on the frequency of tail strikes and the "distribution curve" of consequent repair efforts, I would be very interested to see it.

How many RBH repairs, versus how many "time-bomb" blow-outs years after the repair?
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 00:52
  #351 (permalink)  
 
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Corners

Looks like you have three corners of the aircraft in one area, and the fourth further away.

As always, I'm stating the obvious, but it always helps me to simplify things :-)

-Chris
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 00:57
  #352 (permalink)  
 
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This photo of EI-ETJ was apparently taken in May of this year (sorry, can't post picture): Photo Metrojet Airbus A321-231 EI-ETJ

Does the bottom of the rudder look quite as it should?
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 01:20
  #353 (permalink)  
 
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Tail strike frequency

I count 57 on this list, which runs from March '07 to August '15.

The Aviation Herald
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 01:24
  #354 (permalink)  
 
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Perhaps understandably, the cockpit area has been disturbed:
Top picture quite clearly shows it landed inverted, massive crush damage
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 01:38
  #355 (permalink)  
 
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Possibly an initial phase of a structural failure simply allowed the tail section to flex in response to pitch inputs which would quickly make pitch control problematic both for the computers and the crew.

Attitude excursions would add to the forces flexing the remainder of structure between the fuselage and tail until it came off at which time power and data would likely be lost to the CVR and FDR.

CVR noises just before breakup should allow investigators to distinguish between structural failure and explosion.

It will take time.
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 01:40
  #356 (permalink)  
 
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I count 57 on this list, which runs from March '07 to August '15.
Many of them are duplicates / updates of old incidents; looks like there are 45 unique instances in your list.
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 02:04
  #357 (permalink)  
 
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So call it 5 a year. I would hope the frequency is decreasing given modern Cockpit Displays. Still, it would be interesting to compare failure rates in repaired vs never damaged aircraft.
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 02:19
  #358 (permalink)  
 
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on the pictures of the broken off tail section, don't you see a couple of doors behind the break line?
On some photos taken during the Egyptian PM-s visit to the site (posted on AVH) it is clearly visible from both angles that the entre rear section of the fuselage AFT of the rear doors (and roughly corresponding to the position of the RPB) is missing with what is apparently a fairly clean break. This is hidden under the crushed VS and crumpled remaining top fuselage skin and not visible on the more recent photos of the tail section. From the satellite map/video one may conclude that the tail-cone with the APU is located ~400m south of the tail section, but no photos have yet surfaced of the HS.
I noted a pic on another site (no source) showing what looked like a stab in the middle of a huge burned area
That was a pic of the 2014 August An-12 crash near Tamanrasset in Algeria, nothing to do with this event. It was originally posted on an Egyptian news site together with the first genuine photo of the crash site (the burned wing), so it looked credible. It was soon pulled from AVH and other sources.

Last edited by andrasz; 2nd Nov 2015 at 02:40.
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 02:31
  #359 (permalink)  
 
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So we are yet to have any idea where the HS is located?
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Old 2nd Nov 2015, 02:37
  #360 (permalink)  
 
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So we are yet to have any idea where the HS is located?
Correct. It would not terribly surprise me to find it as the most distant piece from the main wreckage backtracking along the flight path.

Note: the piece of wreckage marked at 30*08'52"N 34*11'24"E on the satellite image COULD be it, but the resolution is not good enough to tell for sure.
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