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On the way to IGARI MH 370 was still squawking, the indonesian contact was probably a secondary radar contact. Then MH370 went dark and I doubt that Indonesia has a primary radar looking that far.
But they sure would see an aircraft on primary radar passing within 40 NM of their landmass over open sea. To assume they saw that aircraft, did not act and are now hiding the fact that they saw it is imho less probable than the assumed turn to south happening later, at another altitude, or not at all. That is my take. |
Well done Retired F4
If my math is still worth a bit, than the GW over the period of time reduced from 1641:43 to 1706:43 by 11920 kg, while the TOTFW reduced only by 5400 kg? "The Captain ordered 49,100 kg of fuel for the flight" (page 18). So, GW is given in lb and FW in kg and 11920 lb = 5400 kg |
RetiredF4;
Refer page 30 of the report; total departure fuel was 49,700kg but recorded on the load as 49,100kg. The GWTs in table 1.9A "ACARS Position Report" are incorrectly recorded as kgs, this should be lbs. |
RetiredF4 wrote: On the way to IGARI MH 370 was still squawking, the indonesian contact was probably a secondary radar contact. Then MH370 went dark and I doubt that Indonesia has a primary radar looking that far. But they sure would see an aircraft on primary radar passing within 40 NM of their landmass over open sea. To assume they saw that aircraft, did not act and are now hiding the fact that they saw it is imho less probable than the assumed turn to south happening later, at another altitude, or not at all. That is my take. |
And if there were a hand on the controls all the way down? 777 glide ratio would expand that entry point by quite a bit more than 20 nm.
According to the table on page 36 of the ATSB report an unpowered glide from FL290 would achieve a max range of 90NM. The search width would therefore be +\- 95NM or 190NM. It's worse for FL350 reaching to 120NM glide and search width of 250NM. Therefore it's better to assume no pilot inputs....the search won't take as long! |
Best bet might be 2 concentric annuli
1. Current search area i.e. based on the 7th arc. This is the "AP, fuel starvation, spiral scenario." 2. Based on maximal glide (from cruise) distance beyond the 7th arc. This is the "piloted flight, get as far as possible, controlled glide and ditch scenario." Most likely FL350-400 if trying to get as far and fast as possible. If trying to disappear, it would seem illogical to reverse course during glide. This strategy may be more productive than searching all points between, for which seem to be arbitrary in that there is no scenario pointing to these areas. And I get a sense we aren't going to increase the search area by orders of magnitude. Any further search will need to be relatively focussed. This of course assumes the BTO rings are accurate. Some have speculated less accurate at low temperatures. However a piloted flight for approx 7 hours wearing normal clothes would require environmental control. |
rtdf4. the aircraft was within radar range of possibly half of java during its transit past the island. I believe the assumption is that it turned south at or around anoko ( fir bdy) and continued down longitude E94 degrees 25 minutes. he would have passed 60 nm abeam of banda aceh, 110 nm from the coast at latitude N4 deg, 243nm from the coast at lat N2 deg, 312nm from the coast at equator and 585nm from coast at S6 deg when clearing southern end of java.
he would have crossed 15 air routes while passing java and another 5 further south. they led to and from malaysia indonesia and australia. if someone was still in control they would presumably have switched off all visible lighting so chances of being seen not high. I think australian atsb would have been very keen to have some radar contact to back up the inmarsat info before embarking on their immense search. guesswork of course but it must be possible that indonesia discovered the aircraft had passed them when they played the tapes back much later. they would tell australia in confidence who now have the corroborative evidence they needed and press ahead. |
ATSB positively identifies part from MH370
Australian investigators report that the part found in Tanzania is from MH370.
Investigation: AE-2014-054 - Assistance to Malaysian Ministry of Transport in support of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 on 7 March 2014 UTC |
If I'm reading ATSB release correctly, this piece is from the starboard wing (in lay terms).
And IIRC all other pieces found to date, that could be linked to a particular side of the plane, also were from starboard side. Excludes Rolls Royce logo - they couldn't identify which engine it came from -- and a piece of cabin interior. |
Searching in the right area.
In general the pundits interviewed by Australian media are saying that it proves beyond doubt that the search is taking place in the right "area".
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piece of wing flap found on Mauritius in May is confirmed to be part of MH370
Wing part found on Mauritius confirmed to be part of MH370
Oct 7, 2016 KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) -- A piece of an aircraft wing found on the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius has been identified as belonging to missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, Malaysian and Australian officials said Friday. The piece of wing flap was found in May and subsequently analyzed by experts at the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, which is heading up the search for the plane in a remote stretch of ocean off Australia's west coast. Investigators used a part number found on the debris to link it to the missing Boeing 777, the agency said in a statement. Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai also confirmed the identification. |
Great story bro.
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Are they still looking for it?
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It’s getting to the point where there’s not much to be gained from further snippets on MH370. It crashed into the sea, it was almost definitely suicide, everybody’s dead, move along.
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Or a Samsung like battery fire in the most inconvenient of places .....
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FullWings ... whilst your summary might well be correct, it would be appropriate to show respect for those who died and their families.
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Fullwings,
There has been recent speculation about a possible on board fire with some damage seen on parts suspected to have come from the aircraft. I think your comments are a bit flippant and presumptuous. |
Or a Samsung like battery fire in the most inconvenient of places ..... Pretty much all of the recorded evidence points towards deliberate (human) intervention. Ockham’s Razor and all that. FullWings ... whilst your summary might well be correct, it would be appropriate to show respect for those who died and their families. |
An on-board fire would not explain why it was where it was.
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MH370 ATSB Update 2nd Nov
So the saga rolls on....
A new report by Australian investigators into the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 suggests the aircraft's flaps were not extended when it crashed, effectively ruling out the possibility of a controlled descent into the Indian Ocean. An analysis of data associated with the plane's final communications to and from the satellite was also "consistent with the aircraft being in a high and increasing rate of descent at that time", the Australian Transport Safety Bureau advised. The findings, presented in a report released on Wednesday, are significant because they cast doubt on the "controlled descent" theory being pushed by some observers and elements of the media. Instead, they support the theory that the plane entered an uncontrolled dive when it ran out of fuel over the Indian Ocean. Analysis of debris from the plane's right wing, confirmed to belong to MH370, found some of the damage was "consistent with the flaps in the retracted position", leading investigators to conclude "the right outboard flap was most likely in the retracted position at the time it separated from the wing". The right flaperon was most likely at or close to the neutral position at the time of the crash, the report said. In the controlled descent scenario, a rogue pilot – most likely the captain, Zaharie Ahmad Shah – was at the controls and conscious when the flight with 239 souls on board hit the water somewhere in the vast Indian Ocean. In a controlled ditching, the plane could have flown further and crashed south of the current search area. The Transport Safety Bureau previously said that if the wreckage was not found in the current search area, the next most likely scenario was that someone was at the controls and glided the plane beyond the current area. The bureau's critics have argued it should have accepted the likelihood of this rogue pilot possibility from the beginning, but the latest finding backs the bureau's favoured hypothesis. Prior to the release of the report, the head of the Transport Safety Bureau's search effort Peter Foley indicated the analysis of the flap position would be crucial to understanding the flight's final minutes and whether investigators were looking in the right place. "The rate of descent combined with the position of the flap, if it's found that it is not deployed, will almost certainly rule out either a controlled ditch or glide," he said in August. "If it's not in a deployed state, it *validates, if you like, where we've been looking." It is not possible to rule out the rogue pilot theory completely, as a person could have deliberately diverted the plane and allowed it to enter an uncontrolled descent when it ran out of fuel. Local and international experts are meeting in Canberra this week to discuss the future of the search effort, which has been led by Australia. It is expected the search will be extended, most likely north to the 34th parallel, with the ABC reporting the Transport Safety Bureau wants another $30 million to continue its efforts. Transport Minister Darren Chester said Wednesday's report contained important information on "what we believe" happened to MH370, and this week's summit would "inform the remainder of the search effort, and develop guidance for any future search operations". MH370 disappeared from radar in March 2014 during a scheduled night-time flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. So-called "handshake" signals between the aircraft and satellites revealed the plane flew on for hours on an arc over the Indian Ocean. So far, more than 20 items of debris of interest to the investigation team have been found off the coasts of Africa and Madagascar, and the islands of Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues. But most major parts of the wreckage continue to elude search teams. |
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