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Here is the ATSB report referenced in the Sydney Morning Herald article:
http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5771773...e_2nov2016.pdf |
WSJ on MH370
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Likely in Steep Dive Before Crash - WSJ
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Likely in Steep Dive Before Crash Examination of wing flap debris shows it likely wasn’t extended when plane entered ocean ...As well as physical debris, the report drew on recent analysis by Australian defense scientists of burst frequency signals from Flight 370 to satellites which indicated the aircraft had been descending fast, likely in an automated series of swooping dives called fugoids. “Additional analysis of the burst frequency offsets associated with the final satellite communications to and from the aircraft is consistent with the aircraft being in a high and increasing rate of descent at the time,” the report said.... |
Engineering analyses, as diligent and well founded with appropriate assumptions as they may be, will never explain the potential motives and actions of individuals unseen by the rest of us.
I don't believe that the ATSB analysis and investigation is likely to conclude along the lines of deliberate action by the pilot/s in control at the time of the incident to ditch the aircraft for other than emergency reasons. That sort of conclusion moves into potential criminal intent, which is a matter for police/coronial authorities to adjudicate upon. The technical authorities, like the ATSB, is where the expert analysis investigation rules out other possible/reasonable reasons in the technical/operational realm. So it seems the aircraft is not likely to have descended in a controlled manner as analysis/inspection of some of the flight control system components recovered do not support the 'controlled descent' hypothesis. As disturbing as it sounds, I personally believe, and have for a long time, that the aircraft's descent was very rapid and very steep and it entered the water in that attitude and dove very deep. Only the 'flimsiest' of secondary and tertiary external structures would have been at risk of breaking off in that sort of instance, where the vehicle enters the water in the most 'streamlined' orientation possible. And this, I propose, is what we appear to have seen with the debris that's been recovered and the state/condition that it is in. On a relatedasdie,, aerodynamics and fluid dynamics are two very closely related diciplines and the study and design of vehicles operating in those environments are very similar. In fact we treat the air that aircraft fly in very much like a fluid with similar properties and characteristics. |
complete overview of 22 items MH370 confirmed/under investigation
2 Attachment(s)
The 2 Nov ATSB update provides a link to a very interesting complete overview by the Malaysian authorities of the 22 (sic!) items found so far, that are either confirmed to be from MH370 or under investigation.
Didn't know for instance that last August they found a vertical stabiliser panel on a Mozambique beach. One can clearly distinguish part of the red coloured Malaysian logo, which suggests its from somewhere midway up the vertical stabiliser. http://www.mh370.gov.my/phocadownloa...014Oct2016.pdf P.S. Apologies for posting this as a new thread, as the main thread is closed |
MH370 Officials: Crash Site Could Be North of Search Area
From the Associated Press:
MH370 Officials: Crash Site Could Be North of Search Area By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS DEC. 20, 2016, 12:30 A.M. E.S.T. SYDNEY — For two years, a handful of ships have diligently combed a remote patch of the Indian Ocean west of Australia in a $160 million bid to find Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. On Tuesday, investigators made what was surely a painful admission: They have probably been looking in the wrong place. The latest analysis by a team of international investigators concluded that the vanished Boeing 777 is highly unlikely to be in the current search zone and may instead be in a region farther to the north. But though crews are expected to finish their deep sea sonar hunt of the current search area next month, the possibility of extending the search to the north appeared doubtful, with Australia's transport minister suggesting the analysis wasn't specific enough to justify continuing the hunt. |
Originally Posted by Airbubba
(Post 9614916)
The latest analysis by a team of international investigators concluded that the vanished Boeing 777 is highly unlikely to be in the current search zone and may instead be in a region farther to the north.
Where the "pings" were originally heard by the Chinese patrol boat Haixun 01? |
Perhaps this might help:-
http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5772119...n_driftv29.pdf |
I find it incredible that, after nearly 3 years since the loss of MH370 - amid vast amounts of calculations, discussions and mapping - there has been a "revision" to a new potential location, further North along the 7th arc. :ugh:
For so much MH370 debris to turn up around Mauritius, this has to be the best indicator of a more Northerly crash location. |
It clearly shows the crash location is to the north of the areas searched to date.
Or perhaps to the south. Or maybe to the east. Of course it could easily be to the west as well... |
Let's keep this discussion about the search, please
For reference, the original MH370 thread is here. Please, let's not rehash that whole thread in discussing search for (and the long-hoped-for finding of) that lost aircraft.
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Jeez!
Completely agree, T28B. Before the first boat put oars in the water on this search, I said that the whole thing smelled like a boondoggle. The search area(s) was/were determined using some imprecise science and educated guesses, with more exact scientific methods and equipment used toward the final phase of each search "episode".
This is completely bassackwards. Logic says that you use precise, known, and reliable methods at the beginning (of a search process, logic process, problem solving process, whatever), and you "guess" or "reckon" toward the end of each process, having narrowed the field of possible outcomes. FWIW, send everybody home for the holidays, and tell 'em not to come back. My respects to all the searchers and the families of the missing. |
Might be a good time to revisit the Curtin hydrophone noise. Which seem to suggest a point in the middle of the IO.
To me, the investigation discarded this noise too quickly and placed too much weight on the Inmarsat pings. |
Realistically, what is there to be gained from finding the wrechage this long after the crash ?
If the recorders can be recovered are they still likely to be readable ? |
> If the recorders can be recovered are they still likely to be readable ?
If they were readable after whatever happened to them when the aircraft went down, they are likely to be readable now. The memory should still be intact even if the enclosures have been damaged by submersion in the deep ocean. |
The authorities have been using the tried and true SWAG method - Scientific Wild A$$ Guess.
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BREAKING: Australia ceases MH370 Search
The search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has come to an end with passengers’ families being informed that the effort to find the plane has been suspended. Next of kin were told in an emailed statement on Tuesday that Australian authorities’ underwater search of 120,000 sq km in the southern Indian ocean had concluded without success. The search had been ongoing for more than two years. What next I wonder? How many years or decades until technology is developed to find it? https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetal...0-search-2017/ |
MH370 Search 'Suspended'
Another milestone in the saga:
Malaysia Airlines flight MH370: underwater search called off Wreckage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 might never be found after suspension of underwater search The search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has come to an end with passengers’ families being informed that the effort to find the plane has been suspended. Next of kin were told in an emailed statement on Tuesday that Australian authorities’ underwater search of 120,000 sq km in the southern Indian ocean had concluded without success. The search had been ongoing for more than two years. The MH370 Tripartite Joint Communiqué seen by the Guardian was co-signed by the transport ministers of Malaysia, China and Australia, representing the three countries involved in the search. It was made public at 2pm Malaysia time. “Today the last search vessel has left the underwater search area. Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has not been located in the 120,000 square-kilometre underwater search area in the southern Indian Ocean,” it read. “Despite every effort using the best science available, cutting edge technology, as well as modelling and advice from highly skilled professionals who are the best in their field, unfortunately, the search has not been able to locate the aircraft. “The decision to suspend the underwater search has not been taken lightly nor without sadness.” The MH370 Tripartite Joint Communiqué: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lled-off#img-2 |
Let google search for the plane while they map the earths oceans.
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Originally Posted by Sikpilot
(Post 9643557)
Let google search for the plane while they map the earths oceans.
http://img.timeinc.net/time/photoess.../graveyard.jpg But seriously, Google commented last year that the resolution they employ for scanning the deep ocean floor is insufficient to identify shipwrecks. One assumes that would likewise apply to airframe wreckage |
Offer a billion dollar reward on a "no win, no fee" basis, that should even have people out in rowing boats with metal detectors trying to find the thing.
Seriously though, it's all very well having these search vessels out there but they get paid regardless if they find the thing or not thus it is likely that they may merely go through the motions ... Try offering a (very big) incentive for finding the thing whilst allowing them their own discretion of which area of ocean they believe it may be in. |
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