There's no explicit logoff message in the released logs, as there would be if someone on board had told it to log off. So it lost the satellite signal, or lost power, or temporarily failed in some other way, but about the only thing we know for sure is that it didn't do a clean logoff.

Would you like to look at YWKS as "destination" then have a look at SkyVector.com for the intermediate waypoints and see if you can tie that in with the ping circles. Routes from the north towards YWKS all go through the ATSB amber arc.
If someone can produce the en-route winds for that date in a readable format it would then be possible to modify the reasonable cruise mach no (0.82?) for the ambient winds to generate a G/S.

MG23

I stand corrected. This is true, there is no "log off" recorded.
That in itself maybe significant.

@Propduffer

We don't know alot at the moment !

We know (it is claimed) that Lhokseumawe DID NOT detect MH370 in the Straits. And we KNOW that DUAMO to PEN is 160nm wide.

Indonesia claim they cover 240nm from Lhokseumawe.
Could be a "pi**ing contest" ?

So where did it go ?


And some pretty pictures to go with it....
http://alert5.com/2014/03/16/could-t...he-fate-mh370/

There must be some mistake on your calculations because 6°32'34.04"N 96°42'17.66"E isn't on the ping ring.

I can't find anywhere that the Malaysians give coordinates for loss of PSR but using the map contained within AE-2014-054_MH370_SearchAreasReport.pdf it appears to be approximately 6.6°N 96.3°E.

If I project a great arc from just south of Penang Island through that point until it intersects the the ping ring I get 6°52'14"N 95°28'28"E. That works out remarkably well giving a constant ground speed all the way from the turn-around in the South China Sea to the 18:27 ping ring of 560 knots. I therefore can't see any justification for claiming that the 18:22 position is wrong.

@nick
We don't seem to be using he same ping ring information.

Here's where mine came from.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/ezs6imv36..._UkCXLEIGDVwQa

It's true that the Malaysians never gave the coordinates for the loss of track. Their tightest definition for that location afik is about 10 miles past MEKAR, your location for 18:22 as stated by them is close enough IMO.

560kts gs is a bit fast for a 777.

@James
They didn't say that - read it again - what they said was that they didn't track such a target over their territory.

12nm north of Pulau We Island fits that description just fine.

@Gysbreght
I've spent a lot of time on this point, I was originally of the opinion that the plane went further west before making the turn.

But after working with the ping rings and taking into account fuel burn limitations I have come to the conclusion that even as far as IGOGU is extremely unlikely. Also there would have been no reason to have gone that far, the normal airline routes past the northern tip of Indonesian Territory are through IGEBO, so I conclude that's about where the turn was made.

This would have occurred about 18:47.

If you have other theories, I'd like to hear them.

@sky9
YWKS might work and it is such a cute solution - but the guy in the left seat could have punched in anything he wanted to, so I see nothing compelling about that waypoint.

An intelligent approximation of this data is very much needed. I would think it would be best done by someone experienced in plotting winds aloft in that part of the globe - which leaves me out.

Is there someone out there..............................?

It's explained somewhere that the PR_18_27_47.kml file is incorrect. Use Ping_Ring_18_29.kml instead.

Turning south
 

The inmarsat raw data release has a BFO Value of 88 for the 18:39:55 unanswered ground to air phone call. That is an (imho strong) indicator that the aircraft velocity vector at that time already had a southern component, i.e. the heading was somewhat south of due west.

@OleOle

The premise of the plane being southbound at 18:39 won't work unless it overflew Indonesian territory, which I consider extremely unlikely.

If we put 9M-MRO's position at 18:29 on the intersection of the ping ring and the FIR boundary (6° 0'5.68"N 96°46'17.43"E) (which is the closest possible position for the plane to have been to clear Indonesian airspace north of the tip) the distance to POVUS (the earliest point of a turn which would clear Indonesian airspace) is about 125nm. That's too great a distance to have been traveled in ten minutes.

"randomly" resetting CBs is not part of standard operating procedure, these days pilots are usually not allowed to touch a CB unless they get permission from their maintenance department. Also attempt to "get things back on and working" is really incompatible with the flight of this aircraft. Faced with emergency they would be looking rather quickly for a land/airport and with the magnetic compass working (needs no electricity) they could steer aircraft in the right direction, specially in view of the excellent visibility in the area and their general proximity to land. So here we are - you can easily poke holes in any theory.

Winds aloft for MH370 Beginning at 18:22
 

Here is Richard Cole's list of winds aloft:
TIME Wind Direction WindSpeed(knots) Lat Lon
18:22:00.000 10 4 6.58 96.34
18:25:27.421 355 2 6.79 95.94
18:28:14.904 330 2 6.82 95.84
18:39:55.354 90 11 5.32 95.47
19:41:02.906 70 22 -4.01 93.25
20:41:04.904 85 12 -11.81 91.44
21:41:26.905 10 11 -19.64 89.76
22:41:21.906 275 44 -27.45 88.14
23:14:00.904 265 55 -31.63 87.54
00:10:59.928 245 43 -38.78 84.96
00:19:29.416 240 49 -39.82 86.22

I think the source is:
earth :: an animated map of global wind and weather

Nick, I'm aghast!


This throws everything I've been working on for the last week off by 70 nm.

I thought one of the base assumptions was that the 18:29 ring and the 19:41 ring were 140nm apart, and the rings I've been using matched that pattern.

Also, the ring KML's I used were the most recent on Steel's site.

Where did the information about the incorrect 18:27 kml file come from?
I can't find it and I (we all) have to get this straight.


@OleOle
Read this please. It makes the turn south possible at 18:39.

Last Radar Contact Lat/lon
 

I thought that the last radar contact position @ 18:22 was approximately 6°35'53.39"N, 96°17'45.71"E, so getting at far as 7°20'24.52"N, 95° 7'46.74"E by 18:33 is very practical at 480 knots or so. From there and a little more west, due 194T avoids the NW tip of Indonesia. I'm not saying that's what happened though. I wonder if the radar at Lhokseumawe was operating that night.

Makes me wonder that to !

Lhokseumawe latest "in the news" effort managed to track and call down a U.S. transport a/c en route from the Maldives, via Sri Lanka to Singapore.

I can't see how the TNI missed this.



They have a CSF TRS-2215. Displayed range about 330. The TNI say 240. Narrowest point around 160

@Propduffer

Hdg must not have been due south at 18:39. A southwesterly course like on the leg NILAM -> POVUS could be consistent with the BFO as well.

It is amazing to me that MH370 can appear and disappear three times.
And there is not one consistent story to be had !

T/O to IGARI and just beyond.
Malaysian Radar heading inbound to the North of Banda Aceh
Inmarsat from a disputed point to another disputed point.

Not one overlap in all three cases. Amazing.

@Nick
The substitution of the 18:29 ring doesn't fit with the other rings.

In Richard Cole's appendix B we find that there is a 255km difference between the 18:29 ring and the 19:41 ring, (137nm.)

Your suggestion gives a distance of about 66nm between these rings so that can't be correct.

My original placement appears correct.