Point of order/correction that may or may not be of relevance to the greater debate..the 777 autopilot track/heading function can be referenced (by pilot selection) to either magnetic north or True north.

FWIW looking further back in the thread I see some comments regarding a 14 degree/hour track change and.. ...Don't forget (?) the Flight Management System uses a mix of both ADIRU and GPS data to perform nav functions. In the real world you'll see a small amount of ADIRU "drift" on every sector and the FMC position will be anchored pretty much on the GPS position.

Having worked nights at an ATC centre for many years, I must point out that during the wee hours, traffic may be light, but ATC, certainly where I worked, were not "half-asleep".
The charts which were used on the Horizon programme showed the AoRs of both Kuala Lumpur ATCC and that of Ho Chi Min ATCC, but also implied there was a geographical 'gap' between the areas of responsibility of the 2 centres. If this 'gap' really exists, what is it's purpose, and where are the transfer of control/communication points between the 2 ATCCs?

@zooker, I think it might have been Singapore FIR. IIRC a chart was published earlier.

The last 8 minutes
 

Also in the Horizon prog it was stated that in the last 8 minutes, a comms message was sent via Inmarsat that was similar to that sent at the start of a flight, implying that the systems had re-booted after power failure due to running out of fuel; plane dived, fuel re-distributed and there was suffficient to run the engines again

Question:
Would this start-up happen automatically, or would there have had to be intervention from someone on the Flight Deck to attempt to get an engine/generator to power up after having stopped due to running out of fuel?

Delegated Airspace - Singapore FIR
 

Singapore leases on a daily basis three small parts of its FIR to Malaysia.

The delegated areas are shown in the Malaysian AIP.

Virtual terminal location?
 

First, kudos to RichardC10 for an impressive job and no doubt a lot of hard work.

One item that I find odd is the 718 km altitude of the virtual terminal (VT). This seems a very unlikely choice for humans to make - an altitude of 0 would be far more likely. I suppose that they use a VT plus another unstated constant time correction, and that appears as the VT in RichardC10's analysis, but it is odd.

Is it possible that the VT is zero and some other factor is hidden in there to make things work out as if it were at 718km?

It's most unfortunate that Inmarsat didn't publish the full analysis.

Mesoman

As you say, there is an additional constant related to the delay in that type of AES (and probably other constants) that cannot be disentangled from the VT virtual altitude with the data available. I don't think a height of zero would be chosen because:
a. it would give negative BTO value for a flight overflying 64.5E,0N
b. they didn't want to log negative numbers even with noise, so applied an offset

They really are just removing an offset, but that offset includes the variable ground station to satellite distance. The explanation does stack up with the graph of satellite elevations that was shown at a briefing, so it must be close.

It would probably have been the engines running out of fuel and the APU automatically starting up and using the residual fuel in its fuel line for a short period of time.

TIME? UTC and System Clocks...
 

Disclaimer: Non-pilot Librarian at aviation firm.

There seems to have been an analysis of the known and suspected tracks that was performed to determine if the plane was under human control inputs or solely under some mode of auto navigation during the initial period of "Somethings Gone Haywire" in hand off and unusual maneuvers phase.

I would question whether disparate systems of military radars would even be operating at the same system clock settings, particularly when it involves competing military officers.

Consider: System clock for an ATM transaction often differs by several minutes from System Clock for an ATM camera network. So a "noon" withdrawal from an ATM and a "noon" camera snapshot from that same ATM can be off by a few minutes. Also security system at major Miami hotel that displayed time frames on surveillance tapes of hallways, elevators and exit doors was found to be "off" by over fifteen minutes from actual event times.

Therefore, I would have doubts as to timing indications on disparate radar systems, particularly when primary returns are from different radar systems under different military jurisdictions. System clocks vary widely in all complex installations that are essentially a hodge podge of separately designed and separately installed systems.

Are not all aviation time-dependent systems for ATC etc. systems synchronised to a single unit time source, e.g. the Rugby Atomic Clock or similar?

Most timing signals for this sort of equipment are driven from GPS. In fact by far the biggest use of GPS is not navigation, but rather an accurate time signal.

That works if you are using noiseless data, i.e. exact measurements with no error. If there is an error on the data and a particular model fits the data (with error) exactly (each data point), then you are 'fitting the noise' which must mean the model includes too many parameters than can be justified by the data and the model must therefore be wrong.

Update on MH370 Search

"The search area will be confirmed before the end of June, after completion of extensive collaborative analysis by a range of specialists.

It is already clear from the provisional results of that analysis that the search zone will move, but still be on the seventh arc (where the aircraft last communicated with satellite)."

Duncan Steel, Tim Farrar, and associates hypothesize an area well to the SW:

Statement from an Independent MH370 Investigation Team | Duncan Steel

TMF Associates MSS blog » MH370: analysis of where to look?

"our best estimates of a location of the aircraft at 00:11UT (the last ping ring) cluster in the Indian Ocean near 36.02S, 88.57E. This location is consistent with an average groundspeed of approximately 470 kts and the wind conditions at the time. The exact location is dependent on specific assumptions as to the flight path before 18:38UT. "

"A report of the assumptions and approaches used to calculate the estimated location is being prepared and will be published to these web sites in the near future. "

A comment on Steel's blog conveniently plots the various search areas:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zniuw33asz...Comparison.pdf

If the JACC opts for INMARSAT's 28 S location, note that it is very close to their 400 kt curve on their first public release (pg. 4):

http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/u...pler-Study.pdf

Data possibly supplied by the US NTSB in March went even further SW (40 S or even 42 S):

http://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/201...SEARCH20-G.jpg

Objects sighted may be linked to Flight MH370 - The Washington Post

I'm guessing the reason no one has spelled out the exact location of this "new hotspot" is because its the same or close to the original area in the South Indian Ocean that was being exhaustively searched before the sudden "discovery" of invalid pings in a totally unrelated area, causing a wild goose chase, that has now been discounted after many millions of wasted dollars and thousands of man hours effort?

http://i.imgur.com/nXL4jDa.jpg

Pam
 

The comments in this ABC article indicate that Fugro have been tasked with concentrating on an area 1,600 km "west" of Perth. Though area of highest probability said to be 1,800km.

Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: New data prompts MH370 hunt to revisit previously searched area - Australia Network News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

The distance traveled from POVUS, (where the plane had to have been at, or very close to at 2:34) to Steel's projected location is 2,535nm. From 2:24 to 8:19 is 5hrs 45 minutes, this equals 440kts average speed for that leg.

The only possible explanation for anything like a 470kt average speed on the southern leg would be if the plane flew far to the north of Banda Aceh. This can't be because of both ping ring data and fuel on board.

270nm Subang to IGARI . . . . . . . . . (405) kts average speed
510nm IGARI to MEKAR +10nm . . . (510) "
104nm MEKAR to POVUS . . . . . . . (520) "
2535nm POVUS to 36.02S, 88.57E . (440) "
-------------------------
3,419nm in 459 minutes = 446.9 kts average speed for the entire flight

Note: Significant tailwinds figured in for the middle legs.

Note: If the last leg also had tailwinds, the TAS for that leg would have been even lower.

Conclusion: Mr Steel's numbers don't make sense.

Totally false, in fact this what you call as totally "unrelated" area is very much "related" (fits inside or straddles) to the highest-probability area depicted in red in post #11152.

Just more speculation.

Look at the position of the satellite.:ugh:

ADS-B Data
 

ADS-B Data (self.MH370) from Reddit
submitted an hour ago * by CopperNickus
Tab delimited, merged data from flightaware and flightradar. Flightaware lat/lon data is to 4 places, FlightRadar24 data is to 2 decimals, FlightAware times are to nearest minutes, FlightRadar24 times are to the second. This is raw. I'll post a interpolated set if I have time. Trying to get more precise data from FlightRadar24 first.
Time Lat,Lon Heading Alt (ft) Ground Kts Climb Rate Location
16:42:47 2.81,101.68 327 1700 200 896 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:43:41 2.86,101.66 353 2600 242 1280 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:44:45 2.93,101.69 26 5400 267 3072 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:45:48 3,101.72 25 8475 280 3072 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:46:48 3.08,101.76 25 10600 314 512 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:47:00 3.1337,101.7844 25 11500 332 1980 WMKK/KUL Kuala Lumpur
16:47:00 3.1807,101.8068 26 12500 369 2220 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:47:47 3.16,101.8 25 11950 367 2560 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:48:00 3.2351,101.8325 26 14000 376 2640 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:48:45 3.25,101.84 25 14475 377 2816 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:49:00 3.2828,101.8554 26 15400 378 2400 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:49:00 3.3302,101.8781 26 16500 385 2160 WMKF Simpang
16:49:46 3.35,101.89 25 16925 387 2304 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:50:00 3.3878,101.9058 26 17800 394 2220 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:50:00 3.4286,101.9253 26 18700 396 2160 WMKF Simpang
16:50:48 3.45,101.94 25 19225 399 2432 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:51:00 3.4807,101.9496 25 19800 402 2160 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:51:00 3.5325,101.9736 25 20900 408 1980 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:51:46 3.55,101.98 25 21275 410 1920 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:52:00 3.5924,102.0018 26 22000 418 1740 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:52:00 3.6466,102.0276 25 22800 426 1800 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:52:48 3.66,102.03 25 23100 426 2560 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:53:00 3.7073,102.0563 25 24000 427 1800 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:53:00 3.763,102.0825 25 24800 433 1560 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:53:47 3.77,102.09 25 24850 434 1536 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:54:00 3.8187,102.1087 25 25600 440 1380 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:54:00 3.874,102.1346 25 26200 448 1260 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:54:48 3.88,102.14 25 26300 448 1280 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:55:00 3.9316,102.1618 25 26900 454 1380 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:55:00 3.9968,102.1926 25 27700 458 1320 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:55:48 4,102.19 25 27675 459 1536 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:56:00 4.074,102.2289 25 28600 465 1320 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:56:45 4.07,102.23 25 28625 464 1280 F-WMSA2 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:57:00 4.143,102.2615 25 29400 469 1200 WMSA/SZB Subang Airport, Selangor
16:57:43 4.22,102.3 25 30175 473 1280 T-WMSA8 Subang Airport, Selangor
16:58:42 4.33,102.35 25 31275 481 1152 T-WMKP2 Penang International Airport, Penang
16:59:47 4.46,102.41 25 32825 480 2176 T-WMKP2 Penang International Airport, Penang
17:00:44 4.58,102.47 25 34475 470 1536 T-WMKP2 Penang International Airport, Penang
17:01:00 4.7015,102.5251 25 35000 468 960 WMKP/PEN Penang International Airport, Penang
17:01:44 4.7,102.52 25 35000 467 0 T-WMKP2 Penang International Airport, Penang
17:02:00 4.7073,102.5278 25 35000 468 WMKP/PEN Penang International Airport, Penang
17:02:37 4.79,102.57 25 35000 468 0 T-WMKP2 Penang International Airport, Penang
17:03:44 4.94,102.64 25 35000 468 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:04:38 5.04,102.68 25 35000 468 0 T-WMKN1 Kuala Terrenganu
17:05:44 5.17,102.74 25 35000 468 -128 T-WMKN1 Kuala Terrenganu
17:06:44 5.29,102.8 25 35000 468 -128 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:07:38 5.39,102.85 25 35000 469 0 T-WMKN1 Kuala Terrenganu
17:08:46 5.53,102.92 24 35000 471 -128 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:09:45 5.65,102.97 25 35000 471 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:10:46 5.77,103.03 25 35000 472 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:11:45 5.89,103.09 25 35000 472 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:12:45 6,103.14 25 35000 472 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:13:45 6.13,103.2 25 35000 472 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:14:46 6.24,103.26 25 35000 472 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:15:45 6.36,103.31 25 35000 472 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:16:45 6.48,103.37 25 35000 473 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:17:39 6.58,103.41 25 35000 473 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:18:39 6.68,103.46 25 35000 473 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:19:28 6.8,103.52 25 35000 474 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:20:35 6.93,103.59 40 0 471 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:21:03 6.97,103.63 40 0 471 0 F-WMKC1 Kota Bharu
17:50:00 6.9298,103.5901 25 35000 471

Average Speed to end point
 

Don't forget that the last 25 minutes or so are gliding down from 35000 feet at an average speed of maybe 220 knots with a descent rate of maybe 1400 fpm. That is dependent on what/who is controlling the aircraft at the time.