Some weeks ago I suggested a scenario which might explain the loss of this aircraft, but I note that every single one of my posts has been deleted. I don't have time to present the case in detail again, but in summary:

B777 has a history of MEC fires dues to GB & BTB contactor failures
There is no smoke detection warning, fire detection or suppression in the MEC
In event of fire the smoke is vented overboard, so a fire can take hold unnoticed.
Damage progresses to structure and wiring.
At TOC, acars and vhf failure due damage is followed by dual fmc failure.
Crew divert to WMKP, only lat/long waypoints can be used in alternate nav.
Failure progresses :smoke in cabin, slow depressurisation unnoticed (no aural warnings-see AAIB reports) crew incapacitation. Fire out due low O2 partial pressure.
A/C navigates in LNav to alt nav waypoints, last two erroneously entered and unchecked.

My final post was to raise the possiblity that the last point latitude (WMKP) might have, under pressure, been entered as 5S, or 50S instead of 5N and that the a/c may gave been navigating to 5S100E or 50S100E.
I suggested that the search should perhaps be along the 100E meridan, but at the time this was well east of where the search was being conducted. This latest news of the ping pickup at S25101E, if it checks out as the MH370 FDR, does lend some credence to the possiblity of an MEC fire as the original cause of the disappearance.

"I suggested that the search should perhaps be along the 100E meridan, but at the time this was well east of where the search was being conducted. This latest news of the ping pickup at S25101E, if it checks out as the MH370 FDR, does lend some credence to the possiblity of an MEC fire as the original cause of the disappearance."


Which explains how the aircraft turned West, then North, then West again then SSW? Surely your scenario would have played out at or about the time of the first turn and when the ACARS/SSB were "Lost"??

The DVDR will show all the recordings for the entire flight so will be able to show failures, or control inputs and will indisputably show whether the aircraft was deliberately flown to its current position and how that was done particularly was it ditched manually or did it just run out of fuel and crash.

The CVR will give the last 2 hours of sound recordings which as with the Egypt air recordings, could show that someone was in the cockpit to the end and potentially who.

But you are right that the period of the turn off the flight plan at handover which would give the most evidence on what actually happened will have been overwritten in the CVR due to the imposed limit of 2 hours.

777fly:

There are smoke detection systems on the 777 in the MEC according to the AAIB report here >> Air Accidents Investigation: S2/2007 Boeing 777-222, N786UA

Not to say this disqualifies your theory but assuming there is fire detection, it would have likely triggered action by the crew.

HMS Echo
 

My bet is that HMS Echo will locate the boxes in a few hours time........................................

Do you know where the Satcom is located on a B777 three miles?




http://www.lowyat.net/wp-content/upl...1394542478.jpg

philipat:-
That is no guarantee of anything. I'd put more faith in the fact that he has made plans to be married soon.

Here is a new map with the search areas and the location of the ping
MH370

A couple of inconsistencies spring to mind.
1. If the aircraft flew faster, and ran out of fuel sooner, why is the search area so close to Australia? The aircraft left Malaysian radar at 0215 local and the last Inmarsat contact was 0811, so if it was moving faster in the same given time, its distance traveled would be longer, but its time aloft would be slightly shorter.
2. At the nominated position of the ping, the speed to get there given the two times above (0215 - 0811) would be between 356 knots and 370 knots.

Somehow the laws of physics are being rewritten for us. Or, of course, there may be some new economic index of the truth being applied.

Satcom
 

IRU input would need to be working for Satcom to function.

How many and which IRU?

Last ACARS at time of batteries expiring?

Wasted Time.
 

One of the points raised by the recent evidence is that when they moved to the recent search area, they inexplicably carried out a patchwork of searches, leaving big gaps. Surely, logically, the first searches should have been along that areas section of the known position arc and parallel to it. Had they done so, then as it now transpires, time would have been saved. More logic, less scatter-gun.....
Maybe they should have had a little more faith in the basic data upon which their search was predicated.

SIGINT
 

The image here

http://i57.tinypic.com/2e1txty.jpg shows all the known ,military classified satellites to the north of MH370 at around 1820 GMT....most are geostationary.
I have factored in an altitude of 35000 feet.


If you strip out all the debris , rocket bodies and decommissioned birds you are still left with a lot of active platforms.
These satellites have both eyes and ears on this region.

If recent revelations are to be believed they are not just looking/listening to specifics , but sucking up data on everything 24/7

So , who is not coming forward with what they have I wonder ?

ReadMyACARS - Assuming the Inmarsat doppler values are accurate, I ran the math which gave me the track and speed.

Inmarsat Values
[[2014/3/7 19:40:00, -109],
[2014/3/7 20:39:59, -140],
[2014/3/7 21:40:00, -169],
[2014/3/7 22:40:00, -202],
[2014/3/8 00:11:00, -250]]

Assuming a straight track heading 182, mach 0.39 @ 12000, the predicted doppler values are very close: [-102.21237107180059, -140.52053354680538, -174.36227202415466, -204.76829959079623, -247.19930766150355].

No other combination of speed and track comes close.

But with such a slow speed, the plane could not have headed off towards the west for long. It would have pretty much very quickly had to start heading south at around 0.81. The other Inmarsat doppler values support this. Then slowed down and dropped altitude at around 19:00 GMT.

Full details and kmz file see zs6tw.wordpress.com

Satellite observer Marco Langbroek came to a similar conclusion:Full blog text: Could US Military SIGINT satellites help to narrow down flight MH370's last location?

Ocean Shield and Chinese Vessels' widely separated 37.5khz detections
 

artifact harmonic of NW Cape (Exmouth Naval Station) VLF signal. Very powerful signals broadcast acoustically to submarines in the I.O.??

They'd need to modulate that NW Cape signal in order for it to be ruled out as a potential source.

Speed-Altitude of MH 370
 

As I pointed out in post 8741 - for the aircraft to end up more to the northeast it needs to fly slower, not faster ... (shorter distance flown, in the same time). The confusion is probably that the aircraft was flying lower, so it had a FASTER IAS but a SLOWER TAS.

ie:
39,000' 260 kts IAS = 463 kts TAS. (slower speed = faster TAS)
10,000' 290 kts IAS = 335 kts TAS. (faster speed = slower TAS)

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8408255



If your calculation for a required 360 kts groundspeed is correct, to end up in that search location, then we have a range of possible speed-altitudes to consider (assuming no wind and TAS = groundspeed).

312 kts at 10,000' gives 360 kt TAS
285 kts at 15,000' gives 360 kt TAS
262 kts at 20,000' gives 360 kt TAS
240 kts at 25,000' gives 360 kt TAS

Since they said the aircraft was going 'faster', one suspects that the 10,000 ft or 15,000' speed/altitudes are the more correct.

However, if someone here has the fuel-burn speed/altitude tables for a B777, they could easily work out from this information exactly what altitude MH370 was flying at (plus or minus the wind). We have the distance, time and fuel-load, and the inly other variable is the speed-altitude. And i imagine only one speed-altitude configuration will comfortably fit the data.


Here is a copy of the image i posted previously (not to any exact speed-scale).
Yellow = high TAS flight
Scarlet = medium TAS flight
Purple = slow TAS flight

http://oi61.tinypic.com/110k6ch.jpg

Marco and I have similar interests...the point I am making though is that until recently we may have thought that these birds monitor specific targets....however recent intelligence indicates that everything is scooped up and stored , electronic data...comms.... everything , 24/7

So somewhere in that harvested data there must be more info on the flight than is being released.
Of course the problem is that by releasing that info , the capability of those assets would be revealed.

This graphic, courtesy of Xinhua News shows 3 Chinese ships in the Northern search area and 4 Chinese ships in the Southern search area, with the Haixun 01 in the centre, where it picked up the 37.5kHz pings. It's entirely possible the Haixun 01 was transiting the Northern zone to the Southern zone and was looking for pings as she went.
It's been stated that the pings were picked up by simply dropping a hydrophone over the side of the RIB. That's the reason for the surprise.
It's sort of like you throwing in a unbaited fishing line on a quick test of the waters, and suddenly landing a big one.
It's simply not possible to tow a pinger locator with an RIB, the weight of the cable alone would sink it.

There's nothing sly, nor any signs of a totally independent operation by the Chinese. All Xinhua news items refer to Angus Houston of the JACC as the "leader" of the search operation.

For obvious reasons involving language and chain of command, the Chinese are not going to have Angus Houston giving orders directly to every Chinese item of equipment - the area of interest will be indicated to the Chinese and they'll be left to operate as a group, using their regular chain of command.

The major problem is the Chinese news journalists on the Chinese ships and aircraft who will obviously send any news home to China first, in the hope of a "scoop".
Journos operate the same, the world over. Angus Houston has subtly reminded them, that any "breaking news" really needs to go to him, first.

http://oi59.tinypic.com/14l4wz.jpg

Digital needle in digital haystack
 

It is also possible that the reverse is true: that because they scoop up everything, finding any one thing is quite difficult. If that is so, they may not want their own paymasters to realize how little they are actually getting for all the money they spend on such surveillance.

That well known PLA-Navy Ship "HMS Echo" will arrive first 02:00 Monday morning

The Chinese vessel equipped with full detection equipment will apparently stay were she is still checking that area

the RAN "Ocean Shield" will follow "Echo" when she has finished her current search area

Surface hydrophone
 

This BBC video shows the Chinese searchers using a hydrophone on a stick, over the side of a zodiac. Doesn't really tally with the info on this thread that the acoustic signals from the FDR and CVR won't reach from the seabed up to the surface.
BBC News - MH370: Plane search signal 'important lead'