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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

oldoberon 24th Mar 2014 21:28


Originally Posted by UnreliableSource (Post 8398774)
I was one of those who questioned the Inmarsat ping results. The constant 40deg angle running near KL seemed questionable.

Now that the techniques have been validated against multiple aircraft, my hypothesis (terminal tracked not aboard aircraft) is clearly disproved.

Full marks to those who crunched the data. Your work has helped bring closure to this tragic matter.

that is good of you to say so, hope others follow.

offa 24th Mar 2014 21:30

Source: Flight 370's altitude dropped after sharp turn Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (CNN) -- As a growing number of airplanes scoured the southern Indian Ocean in the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, authorities released new details that paint a different picture of what may have happened in the plane's cockpit.
Military radar tracking shows that the aircraft changed altitude after making a sharp turn over the South China Sea as it headed toward the Strait of Malacca, a source close to the investigation into the missing flight told CNN. The plane flew as low as 12,000 feet at some point before it disappeared from radar, according to the source.
The sharp turn seemed to be intentional, the source said, because executing it would have taken the Boeing 777 two minutes -- a time period during which the pilot or co-pilot could have sent an emergency signal if there had been a fire or other emergency onboard.
Authorities say the plane didn't send any emergency signals, though some analysts say it's still unclear whether the pilots tried but weren't able to communicate because of a catastrophic failure.

Unixman 24th Mar 2014 21:33

Could someone just run the following bit of physics past them to see if I have got the important point about the Doppler shift right?

If the satellite was absolutely fixed then the Doppler shift would be the same irrespective of whether the plane was heading north or south BUT the sun and moon cause a slight - but predictable - wobble in the orbit of the satellite and since that wobble is also N/S that will add a very small but measurable extra value in the existing Doppler shift. If the satellite was heading south at the same time as the plane then the Doppler effect would be squeezed by a tiny bit and the wavelength decreased - ie very slightly blue-shifted. If the satellite was moving north whilst the plane was heading south then the radio wavelength would be stretched - very slightly red shifted.

Have I got that correct ?

LegallyBlonde 24th Mar 2014 21:38

Confirmation of pax and crew numbers -

On behalf of all of us at Malaysia Airlines and all Malaysians, our prayers go out to all the loved ones of the 226 passengers and of our 13 friends and colleagues at this enormously painful time.

MH370 Flight Incident | Malaysia Airlines

Passenger manifest -
http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/cont...ationality.pdf

mm43 24th Mar 2014 21:39


If the satellite was heading south at the same time as the plane then the Doppler effect would be squeezed by a tiny bit and the wavelength decreased - ie very slightly blue-shifted. If the satellite was moving north then the radio wavelength would be stretched - very slightly red shifted.

Have I got that correct ?
That is correct.:ok:

VinRouge 24th Mar 2014 21:43

Doppler was mentioned 10 days ago on here, was discounted as a location technique, together with the South Indian Ocean location they have probably found the jet in as tin foil hat conspiracist theory.

It wa postulated that the jet would be found either close in or at max range.

VinRouge 24th Mar 2014 21:49

Would the 406 ELT work inside a faraday cage, with no ability for gps signal reception or comms with sarsat?

Pontius Navigator 24th Mar 2014 21:56


Originally Posted by VinRouge (Post 8399013)
Would the 406 ELT work inside a faraday cage, with no ability for gps signal reception or comms with sarsat?

If a cell phone works . . .

We have once been alerted to an emergency beacon on 243MHz. It turned out to be one of our own so that signal had certainly escaped the cage.

GQ2 24th Mar 2014 21:56

Ill Judged Comments.
 
Currently, we still know almost nothing FACTUAL about this incident. There has been some outstanding comment and contribution in this thread. There are a lot of theories, but also, a lot of hot air from many who know nothing and some who should know better. There have been numerous idiotic comments in this thread blaming the crew, directly or indirectly. Since most of the so-called 'facts' implicating the crew seem to have faded-away, along with much else, it is simply unacceptable to post as though this was a done-deal. It ain't, - not by a long way. It's just one of a whole bunch of theories as yet.
This has been an unprecedented incident, and the causes, effects and remedies will gain no clarity whatsoever by unjustly and prematurely implicating the crew. Please desist, it's embarrassing :=

777fly 24th Mar 2014 21:58

If this was a case of unlawful interference, someone obviously wanted this aircraft to disappear and/or ensure that there would be no survivors. Perhaps it would be worth checking who on board had taken out high or unusual life insurance.

syseng68k 24th Mar 2014 22:03

Unixman:

Let's try an example: Assume that the satellite is directly above the equator, also that the a/c is north of the equator and flying south.

As the a/c approaches the equator, doppler effect will cause an increase in measured frequency of the return signal in relation to the transmitted as the a/c effectively becomes closer to the satellite. This drops to zero offset as the a/c passes under the equator. Past the equator, the frequency will decrease as the effective distance from the satellite increases.

You can only get a 1d point fix from one satellite, but a 2d fix may be possible with two, depending on available data...

hamster3null 24th Mar 2014 22:04


Originally Posted by Unixman (Post 8398985)
Could someone just run the following bit of physics past them to see if I have got the important point about the Doppler shift right?

If the satellite was absolutely fixed then the Doppler shift would be the same irrespective of whether the plane was heading north or south BUT the sun and moon cause a slight - but predictable - wobble in the orbit of the satellite and since that wobble is also N/S that will add a very small but measurable extra value in the existing Doppler shift. If the satellite was heading south at the same time as the plane then the Doppler effect would be squeezed by a tiny bit and the wavelength decreased - ie very slightly blue-shifted. If the satellite was moving north whilst the plane was heading south then the radio wavelength would be stretched - very slightly red shifted.

Have I got that correct ?

Sun and moon gradually deform the orbit of a satellite in a geostationary orbit, causing it to "wobble" N/S daily unless the satellite spends fuel to correct. Most satellites do this periodically. If you look here List of satellites in geostationary orbit most satellites have "inclination" (wobble amplitude) of <=0.1 degrees. (If the satellite is left on its own, its inclination is going grow ~1 degree per year.) Fortunately for us, Inmarsat-3 F1 is an old satellite (launched in 1996 and the second oldest Inmarsat satellite in orbit), which means that it must be running out of fuel, which means that its owners are probably trying to conserve fuel and skipping N/S compensation maneuvers. It has inclination of 1.6 degrees.

The rest is correct.

albatross 24th Mar 2014 22:07

ELT activated within the aircraft.
 
I once had a passenger ELT activate accidentally.
((helicopter offshore ops) everybody has one plus the 2 on the helicopter, one jettisoned by impact or manually, plus the 2 in the rafts))
We could hear it but one of our helicopters less than 20 NM away could not.
I presume that the 777 fuselage is much "thicker" re radio emissions than a helicopter so perhaps an ELT activated within with no external antenna would not be picked up by SARSAT.

henra 24th Mar 2014 22:07


Originally Posted by enola-gay (Post 8398924)
IF, and I say IF, this turns out to be an event managed from within the flight deck secure door and it ran its full course to the Southern Ocean without passenger incapacitation, then it must have been utter and unimaginable bedlam in the cabin for 7 hours.

It is hardly conceivable the door would be able to resist desperate and unhindered attempts of the Pax/CC to open it forcefully for 7 hours.
Crash axe and/or stuff from the galley or the cabin itself in the hands of multiple desperate People fighting for their lives would surely finally take its toll on the door and/or the floor.

It is therefore rather likely that at least in the latter phases of the flight no one in the cabin was conscious. Potentially in front of the door no one either.

What caused this is the big mystery for which we can only hope the CVR/FDR to be found and readable.

NWSRG 24th Mar 2014 22:08

As a one time PPL and regular SLF, I have not posted up to now, as I have no authority to discuss the matters at hand. Some of the technical input from the professionals on the site has, however, been incredible...and testimony to their knowledge.

So I'm not about to begin speculation, rather ask one question, and pose another. Firstly, if they are recovered, will the on board recorders offer any useful data? I ask this as I understand (maybe wrongly) that they overwrite after some time.

Secondly, given that it has taken (at least publicly) two weeks for the authorities to locate MH370, is now the time to mandate real-time location transmission? Had this been available for MH370, the military could have intercepted the aircraft in the early stages of their deviation from flightplan...if not to prevent anything, at least to understand it.

Whatever happened, I hope the poor souls on board were unaware of their fate.

Lonewolf_50 24th Mar 2014 22:14


Originally Posted by NWSRG (Post 8399057)
Firstly, if they are recovered, will the on board recorders offer any useful data?

The flight data recorder should provide much useful information.

I ask this as I understand (maybe wrongly) that they overwrite after some time.
The typical Cockpit voice recorder overwrites every 2 hours or so. (Last one I looked up was 2.5 hours)

Secondly, given that it has taken (at least publicly) two weeks for the authorities to locate MH370 --
Nothing confirmed has been found, in terms of floating debris. If such debris is confirmed, the actual hunt for the aircraft begins. That will take more time.

, is now the time to mandate real-time location transmission?
IMO, no. Other opinions will differ. Automobile designers are not required to design their cars for the cases of people who run them off of cliffs. I see no reason, given how many flights take off and land each day the world over by people using aircraft for their intended purpose, to make such a rule when a great deal of tech is already required and installed to keep track of where aircraft are and are going.

Since it has not been confirmedHad this been available for MH370, the military could have intercepted the aircraft in the early stages of their deviation from flightplan...if not to prevent anything, at least to understand it.
The military from what nation?

mickjoebill 24th Mar 2014 22:26

Media reports said last night that there are "no survivors".

The Prime Minister's statement and Malaysian Airlines statement did not state that there are "no survivors".

They said the "flight was lost" and the PM's statement and condolences were certainly downbeat to reflect the probability that all have perished.

NWSRG 24th Mar 2014 22:28

Thanks Lonewolf...


The military from what nation?
I'm assuming the Malaysians themselves would have taken an interest...given the initial track back towards Malaysia, without any comms.


IMO, no. Other opinions will differ. Automobile designers are not required to design their cars for the cases of people who run them off of cliffs. I see no reason, given how many flights take off and land each day the world over by people using aircraft for their intended purpose, to make such a rule when a great deal of tech is already required and installed to keep track of where aircraft are and are going.
A fair point...but for me, two factors would sway it the other way. First, the number of lives on board a 777. Second, the damage that aircraft can potentially do.

oldoberon 24th Mar 2014 22:28

What could the military do

Shoot it down quicker end I suppose and more chance of finding fdr/cvr with 100+ chinese om board would have thought there would have to be agreement by which time out of fighter range.

If not an accident and perpetrators conscious might end up with a nose dive and accusations that the military had forced the end.

Can't see they could force it down or help it down.

DaveReidUK 24th Mar 2014 22:29


Originally Posted by olasek (Post 8398699)
They had fuel for 7:30 hrs and the flight lasted over 7 hrs.
In view of the above it is you who has to prove there was no fuel exhaustion.

Demonstrating that there is an absence of proof for a hypothesis does not necessitate having to prove the opposite.


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