It's just the other way around. TV outlets and yellow press filled much more prime time and pages with an un solved disappearence than they would had with a quick and efficient SAR.

BTW, what did you mention at the end of your posting, old grumpy Hunter ?

;);)

I called the Washington Post. Asked about the new ping arcs.
 

That map the Washington Post just had with new ping arcs on it. I rang them and asked if their data was reliable or just artistic license and we had a discussion about the importance of accuracy before "a thousand geeks waste days plotting potential northern locations as well". So the lady understood what
I meant.

She said their data for the arcs, which they believe to based on an official Malaysian release, was from here..

Here?s what?s odd about that map of MH370?s final satellite ping

Unless I missed something important about that blog post, I wouldn't get too excited.

---
I can't seem to post, so I'll add it to this old message.

Guys,

I'm getting bombarded with complaints about deletions here, a statistically significant number of which are all to do with a certain subject.

If your message stays up longer than ten minutes, you are on the wrong track.

Which is bizarre as I thought that missing altitude data post was really onto something. Perhaps its potential importance was overlooked?

I heard a couple of days ago that there was significant news, and I don't mean a catamaran or a pallet, the deletions all on one subject would tend to confirm things are underway.

Mods? You know how the drug industry suppresses unfavorable trials and how this can be mathematically detected? If your deletions are for operational reasons, they are way too specific and giving the game away. Mix it up a bit. The bad guys can add up as well.

The Australian Find
 

The Australian Government has described the sat image as credible and that the object yet unidentified appears to bear signs of it being awash or semi submerged. Some weight must be attached to such a statement given the gravity of the situation as a whole. There is much speculation as to an object of this size, reported as 24m, remaining on or close to the surface after such a long lapse of time, in the event it may previously have formed part of the aircraft structure.

The following link details the materials and technology applied in the design and construction of the B777 and may give a usefull insight as to the likelihood of wreckage that may be discovered.

http://www.southampton.ac.uk/~jps7/A...0materials.pdf

Hunter 58,

Early in this blog, I made a post concerning radar tracking by naval vessels that may have been close to the flight path of the aircraft. I did not receive a reply from anyone at the time and maybe you could answer the question: would naval vessels be able to track the aircraft using primary returns and, if so, what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?

I was assuming that there would have been some naval vessels, from various countries, operating somewhere in the area believed to have been overflown by the aircraft.

PS, there were two of us talking about it. The 'as normal chatting' would have been as perceived by the subject. Trust me when I say they would have been talking scribble as well as writing it.

I was usually one of the first back on oxygen and saw some trying ineffectually to stop the doctor putting their mask back on. You see their pencil 'scribbling' but in reality just doing nothing.

Automatic reflexes no chance.

To get a meaningful comparaison from a statistical point of view, one should compare the number of casualties per leg on a trip (i.e. the number of travel occurrences), either by car or by plane, instead of compairing those means of transportation on a time frame or distance basis.

Sorry folks, I'm also getting old and pedantic. :p

Staggerwing

I absolutely don't know. But I am sure there are some people here who have experience with naval radar ops. However, the radar ist the same, the differences are in the analysis behind. Due to mountaineous terrain our assets were actually adapted navel equipment.

I am sure they could have tracked the aircraft, the problem is more how they could have identified it positively or communicated with someone about it without reveiling their identity.

Up until this point I'd been willing to give the search management the benefit of the doubt but this latest fiasco is pretty much proof that they're muppets.

One question I had was on knowing the turn was entered in the FMC.... was this deduced because the next waypoint was seen in ADS data received before shutdown? Has anything specific (lat/long) been divulged?

I remember it was as if everyone was very drunk. Many even had a headache afterwards. I'd imagine any voice transmissions would be noticeably slurred once judgement was impaired, but maybe it depends on the person.

VHF vs HF
 

Does any Aircraft radio station maintain a watch on any of the international HF distress frequencies anymore or has this been overlooked that they work very well especially during this high sun spot cycle? Perhaps VHF was disabled but no one was listening on HF for her.

Radar Line of Sight Range
 

@Staggerwing you asked "what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?"

Not sure of ship dimensions, so based on a guess, radar antenna 20m high, the line of sight range to a target at FL200 would be about 184 NM. An antenna 10m higher only adds 2 NM.

Travel risk statistics
 

awblain
It's a personal choice, assessing risk, But I'm with Ettore…per journey.

Mind you - essential travel, and voluntary travel, might logically be assessed differently.
"Shall I go at all ?" is different from "I must, but how ?".

Getting slightly quieter, is it? :hmm:

Sorry, but I disagree. The whole lesson of eventually finding AF447 was the "Bayesian" theory.

Each piece of information is evaluated, given a probability and move on from there. As with AF447, the "LKP" is often accurate, even if other info suggests otherwise. The Inmarsat info would have been evaluated, given a probability, but not straight away, enough weight to call off the other search areas.

There is also some practicality. The assets available cannot all be switched to/from areas at will.

I think it is also clear the search teams / location have been a day or 2 ahead of what we are told the "latest" info is i.e. as info comes in, someone is evaluating and actioning it. Just not the chap in front of the cameras ;)

Edit: reading a bit more on it, you concentrate on where you are most likely to find it. That is not the same as where you think it most likely is! The original search was in shallow water, and a small area... so if it was there, the P of finding it is much higher than the deep / enormous South Indian Ocean. The former search has now stopped since not only is the P higher it is in the Indian Ocean (or the N), but since the South China Sea has been so extensively searched, the P of now finding it there goes down. Or something like that!

Did any facility SECAL the plane at any time?

Article on the buoys being dropped from the C-130 with photos
from the C-130.

Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: RAAF narrows search field as hunt for MH370 continues

Staggerwing`s question on radar.

Shipborne military naval radar is horizon limited and relies on sat link for enhanced range and altitude. Airborne radar, such as EWAC is the current fashion. The actual numbers are not on general display for obvious reasons, so there is not much more than just the usual theoretical data around. The only useful tool in the area is the Ozzie Jindalee Operational Radar Network, multistatic radar using OTH-B (OVER THE HORIZON ) with an official range of 1900miles.
Here is its coverage, near enough to the current search area.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...x-JORS.svg.png

Circumnavigating Flotsam?
 

There's another 4-5 hours before daylight in the search area when an a/c crew can get eyes and cameras on the objects the satellite picked up.

Then we will have a better idea whether one or more of the objects came from MH370 or a maritime casualty that's been circumnavigating Antarctica since???

While it's pretty barren North of the Himalayas, before that there's a bunch of high steep heavily vegetated slopes in extremely difficult terrain that could conceal a CFIT.

If it hit the side of a gorge, the debris could possibly fall into a high volume river leaving precious little visible.

Even if the flotsam does not come from MH370, there's still nothing in the public domain to put one ping arc over the other.

USN Naval Radar Info
 

To answer staggerwing at least for USN assets they would typically have some combination of these air search RADARs depending on the type of ship.

Some common examples:

AN/SPY-1 AN/SPY-1 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

AN/SPS-48 AN/SPS-48 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

AN/SPS-49 AN/SPS-49 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


250nm+ range in general with the SPY-1 and SPS-48 being phased array height finding RADARs.


I have a piece of SPS-49 antenna that I had to cut off with a hacksaw sitting on my desk.

XB70It would be also interesting to know how ACARS transmitted the information.
If it was VHF, HF or Sat. Maybe the crew forgot at the time to switch off the HF if this was the route out. All 3 can be easily disabled.

If 'they' were going to steal the aircraft then they would most certainly shut it down Before doing anything unusual.

Was it in the secondary in case of emergency and the secondary was activated.

It would seem most odd that highly experienced operators would overlook such obvious detail to put the aircraft into 'stealth' mode.

Last bit first, probably not.

Then ability to track depends on the type of ship as air search is a specialised role usually for destroyers, cruisers and carriers. Smaller vessels, such as patrol boats and up to frigates will not usually have an air search capability and would rely on data links for a recognised air picture. The RAP would only be available if they were in a link with other air defence units, ships and AWACS. It that part of the world, unless on operations or exercises, it would be unlikely that there would have been any real chance of ships being present and detecting 370.

Other than units on operations, many navies operate on a day running basis and certainly expect a weekend in port.