riiight.....

So, not only have they managed to land and hide 300 tons of aircraft from the worlds eyes from over a week, but they've also managed to discreetly transport 300 people to a different location which is basically (by your description) a fully equipped, self-sufficient prison building they've also taken over, and have been catering to their every need for a week without communication or being spotted.

:rolleyes:

One things almost for sure, the law of large numbers will dictate that one of, or a convolution of the theories on this thread will be the correct one.

JORN
 

@Capt Kremin: Even if JORN was operational, it would not necessarily have detected the aircraft. The factsheet says

And also:

A steady heading and speed wouldn't give evenly spaced arcs.

Is it feasible that this 777 may have avoided radar detection by staying low to the ground?

For an a/c at 1000ft AGL, a radar at sea level has a theoretical range of under 40nm. In reality this would be even worse assuming there is a direct line of sight.

OK, I know the 1st thing someone will point out - it was night time, so how could it do any low level VFR?

Assuming this thing followed a predetermined track, isn't it possible that (in theory) whoever planned this out had a means of knowing the MSA for each part of the new route and kept the aircraft fairly low to the ground thereby evading radar detection for the last few hours? Even a set of night-vision goggles could be enough for manual low level flying.

I know this sounds very Hollywood-esque and in true pprune style, but we already know that whoever flew this plane after it disappeared tried pretty hard to make it disappear for a reason no one can explain so far.

Feel free to poke holes in my theory. I'm just speculating like everyone else and trying to give a plausible solution to the dilemma of the a/c not being detected by radar if it flew North after it vanished.

Bearcat F8F

I suggest you read up on EGPWS.

A UK newspaper is reporting that the captain attended the high-profile trial of the opposition leader of Malaysia just a few hours before the flight, which doesn't seem like the most calming thing to do before piloting an international commercial flight:

Doomed airliner pilot was political fanatic: Hours before taking control of flight MH370 he attended trial of jailed opposition leader as FBI reveal passengers could be at a secret location | Mail Online

@BARKINGMAD

Do you really think that US/UK ATC would not respond to transport who turn off transponder and comms then change heading to a large military base? I can assure you that things have changed in the US since 9-11. There have been many incidents of F-16s surprising a/c that failed to respond. It saddens me that the RAF has been cut back so much since the cold war.

However to your point I am surprised that certain parts of the world apparently turn off all air defenses at 5pm so they can all go home for the evening.:ugh:

RI radar 'did not detect MH370 in Malacca Strait'
 

"Hadi told The Jakarta Post that the Indonesian Air Force’s radar unit in Lhokseumawe, Aceh, did not detect the missing MH370 in the area where the Malaysian military suggested as being the plane’s last detected position around Penang waters.

“Our radar information has been shared with our Malaysian counterparts,” he said.

When asked if Lhokseumawe radar’s coverage had reached Penang, he only said that the radar had the capability to detect flying objects for up to 240 nautical miles, or about 445 kilometers.

A rough calculation using Google Earth shows that Lhokseumawe’s distance to Penang is about 300 kilometers, meaning that the radar could cover up to the Malaysian Peninsula."

RI radar 'did not detect MH370 in Malacca Strait': Air Force | The Jakarta Post

Would be interesting to set up a survey for posters to vote on what they think is the highest probability cause for the disappearance from the main theories.

In his book "The Wisdom of Crowds" James Surowiecki argues that if you want to make a correct decision or solve a problem, large groups of people are smarter than a few experts.

I don't think of one minute any state actors were involved deliberately, the stakes would be too high, and for what?

Would still argue a catastrophic failure of some kind disabling some buses, could be that disabled the crew (hypoxic or otherwise), and some poor (clueless) bugger attempting to fly the a/c via the MCP, but ending up in the middle of nowhere.

As for all this leaked information, I suggest it is treated with some discrimination, a lot of it may simply be found later to be 'incorrect'.

I'm very much still with the theory this was accidental.

There is no reason why a skilful aviator shouldn't be able to fly an airliner fairly close to the ground.

Here's a KC-135 flying very low. And I am not suggesting this 777 was doing this. But even at 1000ft, chances of radar detection are significantly reduced.

Orge said,

I think you are looking at it all wrong - what is more terrifying than day 9 and we are still not even sure it was a terrorist attack, let alone who is responsible and what their ultimate goal is?

If this was a terrorist attack, they were unbelievably successful regardless if they had another goal they never achieved. After all, the #1 goal of Terrorism is Terror!

Also, taking responsibility actually happens less than we think, and sometimes it happens much later in time. Plus, someone we don't know did take responsibility. That leaves 3 possibilities - they did and we don't believe them, they will eventually after we start figuring out who might have done it anyway, or they have no intention to.

The no intention to is especially valid if this was a dry run, and not the actual eventual goal. THAT is the really scary aspect in my mind.

I think the time is long past to lock this thread, until such a time that either the airplane is found, or evidence of an irrefutable nature is discovered. Some of this is bordering on libel. Certainly some of what is being said here and in other places may be putting the families of these airmen in danger.

I do hate to add fuel to what I already don't believe is the case myself, but...

olasek says

In all honesty, you might be under an extremely lucid frame if ones intentions were to...

a) ditch the plane where it is unlikely to find and completely figure out what exactly happened

...allowing for...

b) insurance claim for your family (as the Malaysian Government has mentioned multiple times, oddly enough)

Suicide is likely not covered under the claim, but dying at the hands of terrorists will allow for both the insurance claim and a big lawsuit.

I repeat, I don't think that is what happened, but would make sense

Speed of Sound says

...not without heavily armed guards escorting it

And one would think such escorts would be able to do at least something in a hijack, honestly.

Am I correct in saying ACARS turned off 10 (?) or so minutes before transponder? If so, why? What would ACARS transmit that you didn't want known while still appearing ops normal to ATC?

This has been carefully planned by someone. This detail may be significant.

Would ACARS transmit decompression?

If you were going to decompress the cabin, the ideal time to do it would be near or soon after TOC. You would want rapid incapacitation, so not from departure (plus you presumably need time to somehow exclude 2nd pilot). But you would also want some time when alarm would not be raised and so pax wouldn't try to interfere. At or near TOC when pax used to cabin climbing seems logical.

Then after this was accomplished, turn of transponder and disappear.

This scenario would also avoid any calls from alarmed pax when crossing land.

Unless of course, they did not know they were hijacked? Or perhaps, as has been postulated a few times here, the PAX air was turned off or cabin allowed to depressurise

Just facts. You follow with any logic:

Long standing political drama exists in Malaysia centered around very controversial opposition leader Anwar_Ibrahim - trumped up sodomy charges, reversal, etc. On day of flight March 7 his acquital was overturned, to great consternation of his many vocal supporters, who hate current govt.

According to UK paper, Captain Zaharie was a huge supporter of Ibrahim and his opposition party.

Only Zaharie would have senior skills to perpetrate the hiding of MH370, the long trip, announcements to calm the PAX, tactics to throw off the authorities as long as possible.

To embarass the current Malaysian govt with hours and hours of drawn out suicide creating what we say today, would be a possible motive and make more sense than anything else associated with this tragedy.

Is the eccentric flight-simulated divorced pissed-off Captain Zaharie capable of such an evil adventure? You be the judge!