PPRuNe Forums

PPRuNe Forums (https://www.pprune.org/)
-   Rumours & News (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news-13/)
-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

jumbobelle 15th Mar 2014 16:48

so assuming the disappearance was deliberate, how do you make your 777 totally invisible to everyone, civil and military not to mention engineering/Rolls Royce?

somepitch 15th Mar 2014 16:50


I still don't quite understand how they arrive at the two arcs. Intelsat IOR at 64E I understand, but what tells them it's that narrow band, and not a band through (for example) Pakistan and the Maldives, which are also not overlapped by another sat? Can someone take the trouble to explain in layperson terms?
There's quite a bit of discussion and accompanying diagrams beginning with TelcoAg's post #3779 a few pages back... explains it very nicely!

OleOle 15th Mar 2014 16:51

Some points about the inmarsat lines of position.

- According to spec GSM must infer distance between base station and user equipment via round trip times with an acuracy of better than 550 metres. I see no reason why Inmarsat should perform worse.

- In the first 2 hours of the flight MH370 was in range of two satellites (POR/IOR). During that time two intersecting lines of position should be available. From todays PMs Statement:

Today, based on raw satellite data that was obtained from the satellite data service provider, we can confirm that the aircraft shown in the primary radar data was flight MH370. After much forensic work and deliberation, the FAA, NTSB, AAIB and the Malaysian authorities, working separately on the same data, concur.
I.e. primary radar track and the positions from inmarsat correlate. That is what gives them confidence in the data.

- What was shown to the public was only the last known line of position. More lines from during the flight must be available.

- If sombody wanted to land that plane somewhere (I don't believe it) he might wanted to do that with first light. As we are close to Equinox the night/day border is almost parallel to the meridians. Longitude of the day/night border at 8:11 Malay time was somewhere close to the Andamans. Further west it was still dark.

nupogodi 15th Mar 2014 16:52


Originally Posted by ollopa (Post 8378484)
I still don't quite understand how they arrive at the two arcs. Intelsat IOR at 64E I understand, but what tells them it's that narrow band, and not a band through (for example) Pakistan and the Maldives, which are also not overlapped by another sat? Can someone take the trouble to explain in layperson terms?

The reality is that likely the band is not so narrow. Calculating distance from >30000km requires very accurate timing. If they are off by a millisecond, they they could be off by hundreds of kilometres. So the reality is the potential arc of last known locations could be much wider, but these are what they determined to be most likely given the last known position of the aircraft.

jeanlyon 15th Mar 2014 16:52

This will probably be deleted, but I thought straight away it was an odd thing to say The expression "all right" is so English, not the sort of thing said by a Malaysian. If he had said OK, I might not have noticed.

GlueBall 15th Mar 2014 16:55


Rogue pilot carries on until leaving Malaysian Air traffic Control and then goes totally quiet. That's "easy" - now the difficult bit - WHY ?
...tired of life and a need to make a statement by going down with a big bang.

Kentut 15th Mar 2014 17:06


This will probably be deleted, but I thought straight away it was an odd thing to say The expression "all right" is so English, not the sort of thing said by a Malaysian. If he had said OK, I might not have noticed.
Hi Jeanlyon

I am unsure if you ever lived or visited Malaysia, which was a colony of the British, and where English is widely spoken together with their language, Bahasa Malaysia. The average Malaysian speaks decent English IMO so much so applicants seeking to migrate to eg Australia, do not have to go through the IELTS testing, given as an example.

Undubbed content from the US and elsewhere forms a large portion of openly available TV channels in Malaysia.

It would not surprise me if he had indeed said that. I would think that the captain was educated in an English medium school and took all his professional courses in English.

Disclaimer: Born in Kuala Lumpur, living in Switzerland for years.

http://www.universityworldnews.com/a...10408183436105

http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tren...n-Asia-ranking

BARKINGMAD 15th Mar 2014 17:07

If this episode was/is due to loony pilot(s), does this mean that the sensible flight ops departments of sensible airlines will regain control of flight crew recruitment??

First move would be to lock out the dreaded H R departments with their obviously ineffective psychometric tests, and to introduce proper psychobabble screening for current and future pilots and wannabes.

This could provide much needed employment amongst the shrinks shortly to be made redundant by the UK health service and introduce a complete new raft of certificates for EASA to charge for issue!

Bearing in mind that the large majority of air accidents are HF related, it might also reduce the nastys which occur due to the faulty
programming of the space between the ears of the 21st century
bonobos occupying the front seats, of whom I was one til recently?!
:suspect:

papershuffler 15th Mar 2014 17:08

From elsewhere, last possible location map with Jindalee overlay:

http://i.imgur.com/8PY8ywk.jpg
So the Aussies 'should' be able to rule out the lower segment, depending on possible error margin?

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/22527773-post4170.html

ETOPS 15th Mar 2014 17:10

Return 2 Stand

What about superimposing a circle, radius 3000 miles, centred on the South China sea position and seeing where it intersects the satellite arc?

Dak Man 15th Mar 2014 17:13

Not buying this suicide angle, why wait 2hrs and why not nose dive it from FL370?

APLFLIGHT 15th Mar 2014 17:13

B777-200 avionics compartment photos on the web
 
United Hanger at SFO. - Wings900 Discussion Forums

(found these online, gives an impression)

mover625 15th Mar 2014 17:15

If so it seems he chose a remote location for his 'big bang'.

korrol 15th Mar 2014 17:16

Why fly all that way just to commit suicide?
 
Whilst logic might not be the strongest suit of air pirates, or rogue crew, or terrorists, neverthless it seems to defy all reason for a conscious crew or even a conscious hijacker to fly on for hours if all they're going to do at the end of it is crash the plane.

Surely the most logical explanation is that the plane has been flown to a specific destination .Clearly that destination isn't an airport - otherwise we'd all know about it by now and wouldn't be having this conversation.

But the destination could be a kind of "Dawson's Field" landing strip somewhere - similar to that used by terrorists in the 1970 triple hijacking. Dawson's Field was , I think, in Jordan - an unmanned desert field. All that's needed is a flat salt-pan somewhere - and given the huge number of possible landing grounds within the now-extended search area it'll take a while to locate - even from satellites.

One other thought - they wanted to crash onto a specific city or target - but ran out of fuel en route. Perhaps maths wasn't their strong point either.

Unixman 15th Mar 2014 17:20

Anybody know what the US has on Diego Garcia radar-wise?

letsjet 15th Mar 2014 17:20


I can't imagine why someone would follow the southern possibility, it leads no-where within fuel range. Surely it must have gone North?
I'm not sure why you think this. Perhaps you can explain your thought process.

With the supplied information, I think the southern route is still plausible. You can't discount it until there is data to support removing the possibility.

1. You have data supporting the poss. of this route.

2. You have an AC that potentially flew to fuel exhaustion. This adds another element to consider. The last data point when the AC could have potentially run out of fuel, is telling. If fuel exhaustion could be ruled out, it would be one less variable.

3. You have no SAR team or anyone anywhere spotting anything from the AC.

4. No pings from any transmitter (ELT, FDR, etc.)

5. You have very deep water.

jmeagher 15th Mar 2014 17:23

Phraseology: full context?
 


“All right, roger that”

I never heard such a phrase. Where did he get "All right" from? Bizarre.

Agreed, I have been unhappy with the phrases used since they were first reported. Are MAS procedures such that sloppy phraseology would be used? Certainly not with the Big Airline I flew for.
If not, was it the crew trying to indicate a HJ? Or HJacker using the R/T?
I wonder what the full context of all the transmissions is? Is there a recording or transcript that includes all comms up until that point with a sense of time between tx?

I live in San Francisco Bay Area and I've heard, just as a for-instance, from the lips of Very Big Airlines pilots, the following or similar, after tower issues a new frequency change instruction to a departing flight: "Aloha, switching," with the tower replying, "Aloha."

No freq read-backs, but apparently the planes continue on to Hawaii without incident, dozens of times each day.

The nonstandard in the above example was preceded by a bunch of tx that were more standard, all contributing to help everyone build a mental picture of what's going on, with the signoff being casual. All frequencies are well-known to all parties. And that's a tame example. I've heard way more nonstandard stuff that would baffle a foreign pilot, like instructions to helis to hold over the 'stick (Candlestick park, a sports stadium north of the airport). You could argue these practices threaten flight safety, but frankly SFO does ok safety-wise given flight volume.

As others have pointed out if the route is frequent and both pilot and tower are local, this happens even more. It's human nature.

Think about the shorthand you develop with your loved ones. Other people outside your family may not always understand 100%, but it doesn't mean you do it with evil intent. It's human nature. Technically I should have written, "It is human nature," because given the international nature of this forum, some people may have a harder time parsing contractions. In this case I'm gonna risk it and figure 99% of readers will have little difficulty understanding contractions and the odd nonstandard word. I like to live on the edge.

Point is, in order to make the judgement that this transmission was anything other than normal, we would need the full transcript, PLUS enough other transcripts to judge how this particular pilot tended to phrase things.

This could be completely normal for him, or not. Bit I'm uncomfortable plucking one phrase out of what is a conversation, and coming to specific conclusions.

Happy to revise my opinion if it is shown this was really out-character.

jm

Airbubba 15th Mar 2014 17:23


I can also remember some report of an Airline Captain on his last flight before retirement loosing the plot and barrel rolling an Airline full of PAX.
This is a new one on me, could you provide a reference? Are you thinking of Tex Johnston's barrel roll of the 707 prototype over Lake Washington near SEA in 1955? Or Harvey 'Hoot' Gibson's TWA B-727 upset with pax onboard in 1979?

Looking at the MH 370 captain's purported Facebook page, it appears he is a techie and a foodie (is it mee goreng and mee siam in the pictures?). It looks like he has pulled the control panel out of his refrigerator to replace or repair it. He also builds his own computers, I agree with his choice of an Asus motherboard and an oversize power supply. The parts seem to have been purchased from a U.S. vendor (Newegg?) judging from the domestic Priority Mail box. I can't quite make out the mailing address in the picture, perhaps it is a layover hotel or a friend in the States.


Facebook posts

Even more.... seems he hates Barisan National.... and is backing Anwar.... who just got indicted for Sodomy again.........
As far as his political rant supporting a candidate accused of sodomy, he seems to be advocating change at the ballot box. And, in the U.S. these days, if a candidate said anything negative about sodomy they would be roundly denounced as a homophobe by the mainstream media. Not that there is anything wrong with that as Seinfeld would say.

Nothing conclusive from what I see but it does indicate that he would perhaps have in-depth knowledge and understanding of avionics and aircraft systems. I can also build computers and have recently changed the microprocessor board on my home air conditioning system. But I couldn't tell you what the power supply is for VHF ACARS, SATCOM, ADS-B or HFDL or where the circuit breakers are located unless mentioned in a QRH checklist. Of course, I could find out, assuming the company aircraft manuals weren't too dumbed down as is the current trend. It would be interesting to know if Captain Shah had 777 maintenance manuals and wiring diagrams at home.

I get real fascinated by aircraft systems about once a year when I have training.

None of these comments are meant to be an indictment of the crew but, as a long haul Boeing pilot myself, I now think these areas of crew background should be closely investigated.

ana1936 15th Mar 2014 17:23

I have put an explanation, description and detailed maps of the ``corridors" up at the following URL

MH370

And the maps from that page

http://www.csse.uwa.edu.au/~mark/per...0/northArc.png

http://www.csse.uwa.edu.au/~mark/per...0/southArc.png

jeanlyon 15th Mar 2014 17:26

Hi, yes I did know that about Malaysia. Even so, it's a particularly English expression, not often used these days. OK being more normal. I too was surprised that there was no mention of the new frequency, but then I did stop flying a few years ago, although I was married to a pilot and he also finds it strange.


All times are GMT. The time now is 21:03.


Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.