Quote:
The meaningful question in the absence of data is "what are the odds of getting five heads in a row?" or in this case the question I asked about both failing in a short time span.

These are classed as random events; if, under a given set of circumstances the probability of each one failing is X, the probability of both failing is X provided there is no interdependency, i.e that the probability of failure of either is not affected by the failure of the other.

Pulau Langkawi
 

Makes sense for a rational pilot. But didn't have time? He didn't need 7+ hours to get there.

Wasn't this area heavily searched once the SAR teams went west?

On probabilities
 

There seem to be several statements about odds here and there in this thread. So let me ask (as an SLF) a question to someone who knows the inner working of a 777:

What are the odds that a sudden event is going to make every form of communication impossible (or not a priority), disable ACARS, and at some point, incapacitate pilots (and the rest of the crew, and the passengers), but STILL the autopilot is going to keep the whole plane on a fixed course across the Indian Ocean until running out of fuel?

Common sense suggests that at some point things are going to escalate even further and A/P is going to be switched off.

despegue

good for you.


I wish every real airline pilot would simply say:

A 777 is missing. Beyond that we really know and I MEAN KNOW, anything else.

I haven't heard the full ATC tape, have you?

I haven't actually seen or talked with the radar operators at military radar sites, have you?

indeed, and the last 2 'pings' on the same arc some 7-8 hours after IGARI seem to eliminate innumerable other options which 'seem' to make more sense in some scenarios.

I really hope these 'pings' aren't a red herring.

Langkawi was not even the closest airport at the time when the aircraft turned back. Kota Bharu (WMKC) and Kuala Terengganu (WMKN) would have been some 200 km closer. Problem is, all of these 3 airports close at or before midnight local time, according to Malaysian AIP. The logical choice would be Penang, about the same distance as Langkawi, and open 24/7.

Where is the bloody +1 or 'I Like' Button when you Need it!

There are People here proclaiming rumours as 'Knowledge'.
Guys, some of you are too easy to fool.
Even the 'official' Statements are often contradictory, revised or modified the other day.
Then some purported comments from sources left and right field from the US and China again sometimes contradicting each other.

I would consider none of this as 'Knowledge' at all. In my daily life I would take this quality of Information with more than a Grain of Salt. So do I in this case.
Looks like mixture of politics, bits of Information with unclear source and history and conclusions based on these data.

Let's simply hope someone happens to stumble across wreckage soon before it will become impossible to backtrack it - assuming it's in the Sea (which I tend to consider more likely than not finding a 300t Airliner over land in more than a week).

Because there have been a couple mentions/questions of time, and because of a couple slight adjustments have been made, I want to again present the Timeline for easy reference...

What we know* timeline
(*or at least have a separate "unidentified official" verification on from a reputable source)

- 1:07 - ACARS last transmission (thru VHF) which apparently includes notation of a WP change having been entered into system since last scheduled report at 12:37
- 1:11 - INMARSAT ping would have been received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite?)
- 1:19 - 'Alright, Good Night' at handover (supposedly by co-pilot)
- 1:22 - Transponder goes off
(note: those previous two might be reversed, we have multiple sources seemingly confirming both possibilities. One happened at 1:19, one at 1:22 though. I'm putting them in this order mainly because...)
- 1:22 - Plane goes out of range/black from Thailand Radar (likely from the transponder going black and not the plane going out of range)
- 1:28 - Unidentified plane shows up on Thailand Radar roughly off the Kota Bharu, Malaysia coast (at Malaysia/Thailand border) and this apparently shows plane crossing the Peninsula (without going over Thailand land) to the Straights of Malacca (unknown endtime for this path)
- somewhere between 1:15-1:30 - Vietnam sees plane turn around.
(note: they have not told us a specific time of turn or if they know this because of a Military or ATC radar hit, but they told Malaysia they 'watched plane turn around' sometime shortly after contact was lost)
- roughly 1:30-forward, Vietnam is "frantically" trying to contact the plane
- 1:37 - ACARS misses scheduled transmission
- 1:30-1:45 - at minimum 11 eye witness reports from around and past the Kota Bharu, Malaysia/Thailand border areas (including one saying 'plane descending fast' like one of the later radar hits indicates)
- 2:11 - INMARSAT ping would have been received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- between 1:30-2:40 - Malaysian Military and Civilian radar picks up an "unidentified" plane flying over peninsula (Daud says "this was corroborated by civilian radar" in the March 9th press conference). Those include a couple radar WP hits we have specifically been told about* (and who knows how many that haven't been provided/leaked):
... VAMPI
... GIVAL
... IGREX
(note: we are not sure of the timing of the radar hits, and there is very contradictory evidence here. The most recent seemingly-official time is 2:15 for the last hit. Which hit that was, we don't know for sure)
- post 2:15/or/2:40 apparent absolute complete blackout of plane (except...)
- 3:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 4:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 5:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 6:11 - IINMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 7:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite) near 40 Degree line
- 7:24 - Statement released by Malaysian Officials saying contact lost at 2:40 and SAR efforts are underway
- 8:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite) (thru Satellite) on 40 Degree line

*those way-points on map
http://mothership.sg/v2/wp-content/u...erted-path.jpg

(Note on map: the Thailand radar data indicates a straight path from IGARI to VAMPI is not possible ("plane never over Thiland,") so there are more unknown/unreleased turns in there somewhere. Please do not read that map as a 'straight flight' from WP to WP; it was not a straight path over the peninsula, in the very least)

............................................................ ......................................
Anyone have any other times to add and/or corrections? Any details you think should be included? Would like to keep this as updated and accurate as possible for all, and any input is welcome! (just, also want to keep it to things cross verified, so please keep that in mind during suggestions - that is why things like the possible post-1:30 JapanBoundFlight/MH88 call is not included here)

01:07 ACARS deliberately switched off?
 

If the Airplane took off at 1241am, maybe at 107am the PNF needed to relay a departure message to company and used the Center radio taking it out of VHF DATA? Maybe he never put it back to VHF DATA, the EICAS would show VHF DATA message of course but no ACARS. Not sure what comms set up MH have. Can someone verify? Is HF DATA installed on COMM 1 or 2. They may not have been set either. Is SATCOM installed? What DMI's/MEL's did the airplane carry? Just saying, there are other ways ACARS could be turned off inadvertently.

And, if you were avoiding KUL due to terrain in the area, there would be no reason to choose PEN, it has hills around as well.

Why worry about the airport being open if its an emergency? Well, for one, you would have a crash crew on duty. And KLIA would have a lot more equipment than Penang (even though PEN handles pax B-744's).

The waypoints have not been confirmed. They have been 'leaked' but we have no idea by what source and with what reliability.

There are a few summaries of "Fact" on here.

This is mine
TO ("standard fuel load")................00:41(MAS)
TOC (FL350)....................................01:02(FR24)
ACARS data ....................................01:07(MAS)
Last Comms....................................01:19 (Sub)
Last SSR Position IGARI....................01:21 (Sub) 01:22 (Thai)
Opposite track.................................01:28 (Thai) (no time MAS)
Last PSR Position@GIVAL ->IGREX.....02:15(MAF) 02:40(Sub first report)
Last handshake................................08:11 (Inmarsat)


That's pretty much all we know and some of that isn't very clear.

If it suits your agenda you may believe whatever you want.

Airbubba, something to chew on in the old "what would you do if _____?" ready room discussion.

From the IGARI waypoint, what point could they get to and land within about 15 minutes?

I recall a "rule of thumb" (which I have seen discussed here on PPRuNe regarding in flight fire scenarios) that if you don't get the fire out / aircraft on the ground in about fifteen minutes, the chances of it all ending in tears increases dramatically.

IF fire is what's happening, a location he can get to in 15 minutes strikes mes as the first target for a Captain of that experience level.

Complications include:
It's now a non-moonlit night
Flying a heavy with a substantial fuel load still on board
Few airports open at night.
Crash crew potentially available

Further this thought:

IF fire, and IF ALSO successful fire put out (hooray for the crew!) Captain still wants to land soon, but as fire is no longer burning more time available and thus more landing options.

For any fact being listed, please link to the official source. Otherwise you going to breathe life in to the mess that currently exists. ACARS has simply not been confirmed as being turned off at 1:07. 'At least 12 minutes' does not mean 12 minutes...

@Lonewolf.

The 15 minutes comes the iso standard for "Fireproof". Someone somewhere at sometime read that "Fireproof" as used in CS25 means withstand 1100°C for 15 minutes and made the rest up from there.

BBC 24hr news (sky 503) tickertape says

"satellite signal can only come from a moving plane - BBC has learned" no source given

BBC News Comment
 

On the BBC 24 hours news programme tonight, the transport correspondent (I think) was making a big point -"BBC has just learnt etc" that the last ping had to have come from a moving aircraft and not a stationary one.

Doesn't seem right from what I've read on here, thought it just needed power, but reporting it in case it makes more sense to anyone else.

Lonewolf_50
 

[QUOTE I recall a "rule of thumb" (which I have seen discussed here on PPRuNe regarding in flight fire scenarios) that if you don't get the fire out / aircraft on the ground in about fifteen minutes, the chances of it all ending in tears increases dramatically. ]

I recall 12 to 18 minutes and that's the time frame I give in my sim sessions.
VMO/MMO to around 10 miles and do the approach in LNAV/VNAV particularly if your plane doesn't auto load the ILS. WHatever it takes to get lined up and below the clouds.

Just as a point of reference, I managed a basic motion stabilization of the video of the 767 ditching off the Comoros Islands in the early 90's. This is what happens when a 767 is set down softly into medium surf. Port wing/engine ripped away cleanly and the resulting roll over to the now wingless side forces the starboard wing to break just outboard of the engine pylon. The sailboat image posted earlier of an average day in the waters where MH370 is being searched would probably end much worse than this.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6xodugyc5d...ormalspeed.mp4