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Aeroflot - Rejig

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Aeroflot - Rejig

Old 24th Sep 2022, 11:43
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Aeroflot switched from Russian types to Western ones because they were better. Changing back now will leave Aeroflot in a poor position with an inferior fleet mix once sanctions are lifted and worldwide flights resume. They seemed to have got their act together safety and service wise and were a reasonable option on some routes. Their best hope would be an end to the war early next year with Putin being removed and a gradual normalisation of trade and transport. Long term international pariah status is accepted by Iran but the Russians probably won't be so keen on it and will want to normalise as soon as possible, which could happen simply by withdrawing from the Ukraine.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 16:31
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Originally Posted by krismiler
Aeroflot switched from Russian types to Western ones because they were better. Changing back now will leave Aeroflot in a poor position with an inferior fleet mix once sanctions are lifted and worldwide flights resume. They seemed to have got their act together safety and service wise and were a reasonable option on some routes. Their best hope would be an end to the war early next year with Putin being removed and a gradual normalisation of trade and transport. Long term international pariah status is accepted by Iran but the Russians probably won't be so keen on it and will want to normalise as soon as possible, which could happen simply by withdrawing from the Ukraine.
I think the way back will need a lot more than simply packing up their bags and leaving. There has been mass destruction and undoubtedly war crimes have been committed. Putin has dragged the average Russian back into a Soviet lifestyle of the 1970's.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 18:55
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I can't see any Russian airline being able to lease Western aircraft for many years to come.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 21:33
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Originally Posted by Rt Hon Jim Hacker MP
I think the way back will need a lot more than simply packing up their bags and leaving. There has been mass destruction and undoubtedly war crimes have been committed. Putin has dragged the average Russian back into a Soviet lifestyle of the 1970's.
Even after Putin, and provided the person that replaces him actually wants to normalise Russia*, the debt owed to Ukraine will take more than a generation to repay, in terms of monetary compensation, justice for those who have carried out alleged war crimes, and the country itself being rebuilt, the bill for which will undoubtedly have to be paid by Russia and likely even Belarus who have stood behind Putin this whole time.

*I have no doubt anyone who is even close to replacing Putin will have to have a similar mindset to him otherwise they wouldn't get anywhere near power. Unless there is a coup in Russia again, which doesn't seem likely, I can't see how Putin can be removed from office and his cronies also Purged.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 22:17
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
I can't see any Russian airline being able to lease Western aircraft for many years to come.
I doubt that you are correct. Follow the money.
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Old 24th Sep 2022, 22:27
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I doubt that you are correct. Follow the money.
I follow your logic, but western a/c suddenly appearing operating within the Russian aviation infrastructure is something not easy, if at all possible, to hide.
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Old 25th Sep 2022, 00:15
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At the moment, the Western aircraft in Russia are still probably salvageable but the longer this goes on the more likely they are to pass the point of no return. Once too many dodgy parts are fitted, inspection times exceeded and maintenance gets too far out of date they will be scrap value only in the west.

The Iranians might be able to do something with them as they managed to get a few FBW Airbus types during a brief lifting of sanctions a while back and have a demonstrated capability in keeping ageing aircraft going in the face of sanctions. The A320 is operated worldwide and money talks, getting a few airlines in the third world to increase their spare parts orders a bit wouldn't be difficult.


Last edited by krismiler; 25th Sep 2022 at 00:33.
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Old 25th Sep 2022, 00:23
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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I think it is already too late for any Western aircraft operated after the sanctions, There would be no way to prove that any piece of the aircraft had not been subject to unauthorized maintenance.

In any case all the leasors are pursuing insurance claims. I am sure they would rather have the cash than an airframe of unknown condition so they won’t accept the return of any airframe that is not 100% compliant with Western airworthiness standards.
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