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737-500 missing in Indonesia

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737-500 missing in Indonesia

Old 9th Jan 2021, 15:17
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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alf5071h

No I don't. I'm merely pointing out that after a flight with extraordinary events, it was not reported, not written up, with only some vague entries in the maintenance log, which were then improperly acted upon. I did not in any way blame the second crew, but the whole thing would have been preventable with a proper post-flight follow up and the aircraft rendered u/s. This does not absolve Boeing/FAA from the primary blame, but it is no coincidence either that it was the two airlines in question which brought the issue to the surface.
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 15:21
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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A Sad day again - this ASN on PK-CLC , this report is updated regularly

This ASN report on PK-CLC :
Type: Boeing 737-524 (WL) . Operator: Sriwijaya Air , is updated regularly https://aviation-safety.net/database...?id=20210109-0

Last edited by TheFrenchConnection; 10th Jan 2021 at 22:05. Reason: update
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 15:29
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
If this data is correct, then according to the ground speed this aircraft went from a cruise-climb at 287 kts to a descent (less horizontal speed, altitude reducing), and then finally to a ground speed of 358 kts, i.e. it had resumed horizontal travel.
There is no indication that the ROD reduced appreciably as the aircraft descended.



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Old 9th Jan 2021, 15:36
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Uplinker

Rudder hard-over?
The graph by DaveReid suggests a 40,000 ft/min descent, which suggests almost vertical.

Some old aircraft were still running with the simple hydraulic pressure-reducer mod well into the 2010s.
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 15:55
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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The Indonesian Navy says plane located and navy vessel en route to site.
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 16:25
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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I am not a great fan of social media and Boeing is not obliged to comment at this stage.

However when they do I'll be interested to see whether they demonstrate a return to openness, humility even.
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 17:29
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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derjodel

Yes. Gulf Air A320 in Bahrain on the go-around. Afriqiyah A330 in Tripoli on the go-around. Both high speed impacts due to humans being human, even if not true “nose-dives”.

Also, I’d say Germanwings was more than ‘supposedly’ suicide! The guy didn’t get confused and do it by accident.
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 17:58
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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It lost 10,650 feet in lass than 25 seconds. That is the time in which any stone would have dropped into the water from that height. Ergo it was not gliding down even if there was total engine failure. It seems pointed nose down.
Ergo debris in small area; only on impact
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 18:05
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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RUDDER?

Were not the previous rudder run-away events compounded by slow aircraft speed?

I'm waiting to see what debris is found andwhere, relative to the control surfaces on the aircraft.

I don't like waiting for black box finding and decoding before issuing some pertinent updates to other operators
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 18:35
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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The airframe belonged to Continental/United until 2012, it would have had the rudder issue fixed.
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 18:42
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Correct. The rudder hardover theory was a low speed event. In the operational aftermath the concept of crossover speed was introduced. Above that relatively low speed lateral control was possible. Denied by Boeing to this day but very unlikely in this case anyway. Sorry for those affected. Indonesian airlines are a constant safety concern.
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 18:50
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TFE731 View Post
Yes:
Gulf Air 072: A disorientated pilot dived into the sea with forward pressure on the side stick.
Air France 447: A disorientated pilot maintained back pressure on the stick until a stalled aircraft crashed into the sea.
I'd also throw in XL 888T if we're considering multiple sensor failure and flight control law degradation.

In both these incidents having the two sticks physically connected together could have prevented both of these.
In theory, IF the other crew member is not disorientated and intervenes in time and wins the argument, one the other hand there are many instances where the connected sticks didn't help at all - Atlas 3591 for a start (just to pick one from the "right" part of the world).

Out of interest can you point to any actual documented saves due to connected sticks after dive or stall LOC due to disorientation?
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 19:11
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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According to data from zoom.earth there were actually CBs in the area. The crosshair in the picture below is an aproximate position of the plane when it was at FL100. There is a chance that the plane was hit by lightning which led to autopilot disconnection and also temporary blindess to pilots could have made the airplane uncontrolable.









Originally Posted by physicus View Post
No significant convective activity visible in the 07:40 UTC high res satellite imagery.


Channel B13 cloud top temperatures (coloured < 41C)

true colour visible image.
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 19:16
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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lomapaseo:

From my years dealing with Airbus they would always inform operators if urgent changes were needed.

The manufacturer is often the first to know what happened.

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Old 9th Jan 2021, 19:41
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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Wx situation at takeoff

Indeed, there was nothing going on at the time in the area of interest

Satellite image Jakarta area

The storm and lightning activity was to the west of the flight track.

Lightning activity in the hour before takeoff

Also 5 minutes later the acitivity was just west of the airplane

Lighnting strikes 6.45 UTC to 7.45 UTC
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 19:49
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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#72

Nothing different. Just a bad resolution sat pix.

Zoom.earth

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Old 9th Jan 2021, 20:29
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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"It was in good condition, Sriwijaya Air chief executive Jefferson Irwin Jauwena told reporters. Take-off had been delayed for 30 minutes due to heavy rain, he said."
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 21:02
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by waito View Post
where's this from? You've got more sample points?
https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/c...ajor-incident/

Watch out for dodgy timestamps and latency issues.
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 21:25
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by osborne View Post
I am not a great fan of social media and Boeing is not obliged to comment at this stage.

However when they do I'll be interested to see whether they demonstrate a return to openness, humility even.
SOP is for the manufacturer to put out a press release, expressing condolences and stating that they will be sending representatives to help with the investigation. This is far from exclusive to Boeing - it's SOP throughout the industry. Furthermore, there will effectively be an immediate gag order prohibiting the public release of any data related to the crash or investigation by anyone besides the responsible investigative organization (presumable the Indonesians in this case).
Besides, this was an old, largely analog aircraft - it wouldn't have real time data monitoring of aircraft condition that might provide any insight into what happened (e.g. the probe icing that was reported on AF 447). So it's unlikely anyone knows any more than what's currently being discussed on this thread. That won't change until the data recorders are recovered and the data downloaded. I just hope the data recorders were functioning properly - they often don't on old aircraft, and they are not a maintenance priority.
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Old 9th Jan 2021, 21:57
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Speed & Altitude from FR24 (Granular Data)

Speed and Altitude from FR24 granular data





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