737-500 missing in Indonesia
To the uninformed Illiterate media who have no idea when it comes to Aviation, here’s a tip, look past the MAX, spend more time looking into how Air Asia Indo went down and you will find many similarities, weather including. Having flown in this part of the world many years ago I can assure you nothing has really changed. It’s still the same backwater with bullshit compliance to any form of internal check and training procedures.
Last edited by PoppaJo; 9th Jan 2021 at 10:19.
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Ok. Small debris field so we know the aircraft entered the water in one piece.
From 10000 to impact in less than 60 secs.
Something sudden must have happened to put the aircraft into such a dive.
Wx in the area from photos and radar looks ok.
Latest METAR
WIII 091100Z VRB04KT 6000 BKN022 25/24 Q1007 RERA NOSIG
Pilot suicide?
Stall? Spin?
From 10000 to impact in less than 60 secs.
Something sudden must have happened to put the aircraft into such a dive.
Wx in the area from photos and radar looks ok.
Latest METAR
WIII 091100Z VRB04KT 6000 BKN022 25/24 Q1007 RERA NOSIG
Pilot suicide?
Stall? Spin?
Could not yet find a good wx radar picture but apparently overcast with embedded CB-s.
Relevant metars:
WIII 090730Z 30006KT 5000 -RA FEW017CB OVC018 25/24 Q1006 NOSIG
WIII 090700Z 30007KT 4000 VCTS RA FEW016CB OVC018 25/24 Q1007 NOSIG
WIII 090630Z 34007KT 2000 TSRA FEW016CB OVC018 25/24 Q1007 NOSIG RMK CB OVER THE FIELD
Relevant metars:
WIII 090730Z 30006KT 5000 -RA FEW017CB OVC018 25/24 Q1006 NOSIG
WIII 090700Z 30007KT 4000 VCTS RA FEW016CB OVC018 25/24 Q1007 NOSIG
WIII 090630Z 34007KT 2000 TSRA FEW016CB OVC018 25/24 Q1007 NOSIG RMK CB OVER THE FIELD
Last edited by andrasz; 9th Jan 2021 at 10:56.
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No significant convective activity visible in the 07:40 UTC high res satellite imagery.
Channel B13 cloud top temperatures (coloured < 41C)
true colour visible image.
Channel B13 cloud top temperatures (coloured < 41C)
true colour visible image.
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If the aeroplane descended that fast into a small area it was unlikely to be a bomb. Bombs tend to precipitate aerodynamic breakup of a structure that is travelling at speed and consequently debris is scattered over a wide area. To achieve a 30,000 ft/min descent the aircraft has to be aerodynamically intact and pointing vertically downwards. Loss of part of the empennage, human input or simple loss of control are just a few causes consistent with such a terminal descent.
The G/S prior to departure from the intended path was ~290kts suggesting a stall or spin to be very unlikely. Speed appears to have exceeded 360 kts in descent. From the AVH local fisherman's reports suggest it was raining in the crash area and Jakarta reported CB activity around the time. It is possible that an unintended entry into a thunderstorm may have caused loss of control. The cynic in me says lack of regulatory oversight in this region will also be a factor..... yet again.
The G/S prior to departure from the intended path was ~290kts suggesting a stall or spin to be very unlikely. Speed appears to have exceeded 360 kts in descent. From the AVH local fisherman's reports suggest it was raining in the crash area and Jakarta reported CB activity around the time. It is possible that an unintended entry into a thunderstorm may have caused loss of control. The cynic in me says lack of regulatory oversight in this region will also be a factor..... yet again.
Good to see all you armchair experts have put your COVID epidemiology second guessing on hold for a moment and gone back to what you really “know” i.e. accident investigation via flightradar data. 
Loss of control
Hope that we get a decent accident report. Indonesia is not known to be very active on those. That airliners fall out of the sky in such a way is unusual. That looks like a severe control problem, so there should be a high interest to find the root cause. Any idea how deep the water is there?
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Testing times
How will Boeing play this. Blame the crew, the operator, the country, or just wait and see.
Boeing / NTSB should be accredited representatives in an investigation. Technically sound, but media management could be a challenge, testing whatever Boeing has learnt or not in this area, and in relation to the Max.
P.S
Or what Ppruners have learnt or not about speculative comments.
Boeing / NTSB should be accredited representatives in an investigation. Technically sound, but media management could be a challenge, testing whatever Boeing has learnt or not in this area, and in relation to the Max.
P.S
Or what Ppruners have learnt or not about speculative comments.
Last edited by alf5071h; 9th Jan 2021 at 12:12.
I Have Control
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Too soon to know, of course, but prime suspects are violent interaction with a CB cell causing structural failure, or pilot suicide. The latter is generally a taboo subject, but has occurred with sad regularity over the past 30 years.
Having flown Hajj ops to and from Indonesia over some years, I can verify from experience that adverse weather situations can be vicious and fast-forming. ATC have no weather radar to assist, as with most parts of the world outside North America.
Hopefully the FDR and CVR can be recovered and can be interrogated successfully. Another sad day for aviation. Condolences to those involved.
Having flown Hajj ops to and from Indonesia over some years, I can verify from experience that adverse weather situations can be vicious and fast-forming. ATC have no weather radar to assist, as with most parts of the world outside North America.
Hopefully the FDR and CVR can be recovered and can be interrogated successfully. Another sad day for aviation. Condolences to those involved.
