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14 day quarantine

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14 day quarantine

Old 9th May 2020, 16:02
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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Antonov225 sorry to come back but you are wrong. The epidemiology is little changed since 1918 and in 1918 the management was hand hygiene, social distancing and masks. Failure to close borders was known in 1918 to be an error. Mass events such as the Philadelphia peace loan rally was done against Federal advice and the medical officer for Manchester effectively repeated the current lockdown rules in spring 1918

Health has little effect on transmission, and everything I can do on my intensive care unit merely prevents a small proportion of deaths

It is because the epidemiology I was taught at medical school in the 1970s applied in 1918 and applies now allows the medical profession to say the politicians are wrong. You are correct we have much to learn, especially about the phytogenetics which may explain differing death numbers in different countries, but the genetics and mutations and intracellular function do not effect our management at this initial stage of infection
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Old 9th May 2020, 16:03
  #62 (permalink)  
 
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The fundamental problem is that you cannot realistically social distance on a flight or through an airport. Screening does not work: they screened people prior to letting them onto repatriation flights but many of the passengers went down with the virus within days of landing. Mass testing is not available, time consuming and not particularly reliable.

People coming off a flight are travelling for a reason, be it work or pleasure. And that almost always involves high levels of social interaction. So you may get on a flight with it, you may catch it on the flight, if you have it you are almost certain to spread it after you land.

I'm in the oil industry: we ask people to quarantine before they go offshore, and screen them before they do. Some companies test: we don't, because on all the evidence the tests available in the UK are nowhere near reliable enough to make a material difference. We don't allow people offshore if they are high risk (pre-existing medical condition). There is COVID on many offshore installations, including three of ours. And there have been quite a few medivacs of very sick people who were not viewed as high risk.

So, absent a reliable test, absent a vaccine, asking people to quarantine after a flight is not unreasonable. A lot of people will not travel because they won't want to quarantine, either at the destination or on the return. Even without quarantine, they will likely choose not to travel because they view the risk of catching the virus whilst travelling, and having to deal with it away from home, as a risk they do not need or want to take.

This may be a deeply unpopular view if you work in the travel industry. But it will likely be the reality for 12 - 18 months.
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Old 9th May 2020, 16:13
  #63 (permalink)  
 
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What is it with people, some from careers that are as safe as houses, and who will be treated as heros for the rest of their lives, that they feel the need to post on a professional pilots forum just to tell us we are well and truly *****d.
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Old 9th May 2020, 16:32
  #64 (permalink)  
 
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Wonderful statement by the secretary of state for Transport. Bring back Norman Tebbit.. He had some idea on the Aviation world. Oh, of course he also would have said "On, yer Bike!"
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Old 9th May 2020, 16:33
  #65 (permalink)  
 
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In my case, because my assumption was that your colleagues generally believe what they write. And if they do, many of them are (in my view) delusional.

Oil demand is down about 25%. If the US and Saudi shut in (about as likely as pigs learning to floss) there will still be an excess of supply over demand. Hence WTI went negative and oil now at $20 - 30 /bbl with no visible floor. So we are well and truly *****d as well. Since the last oil price crash 160,000 people have left the UK oil and gas industry. We did not get a lot of sympathy, just had to deal with it. As will you.
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Old 9th May 2020, 17:36
  #66 (permalink)  
 
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"Second wave, you are clear to land"
forget human cost, show me the money!
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Old 9th May 2020, 19:29
  #67 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by antonov225 View Post
stop quoting the Spanish flu. It’s largely irrelevant. In 1918 healthcare was poor/non-existent for many, sanitation and living conditions were much poorer, no hygiene control or education to speak of, poor diets and generally poor health for many resulting from that large war that just happened. Unless you want to start quoting the Black Death and we can all burn cats and check our humours then please give over about the Spanish Flu.
It isn’t like h1n1 no, and the health industry is way ahead in terms of science and technology. But remember that it's still a highly pathogenic virus and the risks are no different. We don’t have a vaccine for sars-cov-2 and neither did we when the h1n1 virus was spreading around, only pharmaceutical interventions. Also pandemics can follow the same paths of multiple waves if they can spread. So I see this time no different when it comes to preventive measures. The GOV are and have said many times that they’re following the science so the public who fail to adhere to their requests are in a league of their own.

My opinion for the exit of this pandemic is herd immunity; either by vaccine or infection. There is backing support for this from countries like Sweden (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...035-7/fulltext).

The aviation industry is no doubt facing its biggest threat since the dawn of commercial aviation. But it’s going to have to play its part in fighting it a long side other industries.

Last edited by squidie; 9th May 2020 at 19:54.
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Old 9th May 2020, 19:31
  #68 (permalink)  
 
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I think about 230 million people arrive into uk each year.

This cannot and will not get policed.

Even if only 1% of past air travel returns thats about 200,000 a month, do people expect plod to check on addresses daily?

its an illusion, but one that will have devastating consequences on aviation.
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Old 9th May 2020, 19:40
  #69 (permalink)  
 
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Come on! ALL politics is smoke and mirrors. Being Seen as doing something just as effective to Joe Public as actually doing it.
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Old 9th May 2020, 20:12
  #70 (permalink)  
 
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At the same time, Etihad are resuming service to LHR, Ryanair are restoring some further destinations from STN and Wizz air are getting up to speed at LTN. Presumably carriers outside of the UK also have short-term plans I am not aware of. International coordination of actions, as proposed by EASA/Eurocontrol/everyone in their right mind? Never heard of it.

And then comes the issue how to refund those who booked their flight and couldn't make any use of it because of new restrictions out of the blue. Lots of extra pain in the back for everyone involved.
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Old 9th May 2020, 20:24
  #71 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PilotLZ View Post
At the same time, Etihad are resuming service to LHR, Ryanair are restoring some further destinations from STN and Wizz air are getting up to speed at LTN. Presumably carriers outside of the UK also have short-term plans I am not aware of. International coordination of actions, as proposed by EASA/Eurocontrol/everyone in their right mind? Never heard of it.

And then comes the issue how to refund those who booked their flight and couldn't make any use of it because of new restrictions out of the blue. Lots of extra pain in the back for everyone involved.
Not everyone is at the same stage in their parts of the pandemics. When thatís the case then international coordination will plan out better.
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Old 9th May 2020, 22:04
  #72 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/04/22/how-coronavirus-spread-in-one-restaurant-shows-why-air-travel-is-safer-than-you-think/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwijmcmS5afpAhXfHjQIHSKHDdEQFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVa w2u9gZZRcia-D3J6rclx0qB&cf=1
​​​​​​
Apologies if already posted.
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Old 9th May 2020, 23:08
  #73 (permalink)  
 
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Unfortunately you are taking the lowest common denominator approach.

Your control efforts will only ever be as good as the places your new arrivals come from.

Borders are easily closed, after all, that is what they are for.

Sometime soon (medium term) parts of the world will be up and running again.

But they will not be accepting arrivals from countries where this remains endemic.
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Old 9th May 2020, 23:40
  #74 (permalink)  
 
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Be glad it's as simple as country borders. In the US, you have to worry about state borders (and different lockdown procedures) as well as individual corporate policies. A relative who works for the gov't was told they are mission essential and needs to travel across the country. Problem - once they get there they need to self-quarantine for 14 days before they report to work at the target organization. Totally absurd.
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Old 9th May 2020, 23:51
  #75 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by UAV689 View Post
This cannot and will not get policed.
The previous standards, scales, measures and calibration no longer apply.

We have empty skies. We don't see the public clamouring to restart passenger air travel. I doubt for those outside the aviation sector that more than a few eould even have it on any list of things they are bothered about.

A few weeks ago we were worrying about ventilators and there were emergency hospitals being built. Now we worry about PPE.

Assuming that things settle nad we have a boundary to 'the first wave' then people sure as hell won't want a second.

Assuming no practical vaccine or no magic treatments then we have to live with it - which means controls.

Much as a 14 day quarantine might look unwelcome now - if the hit is taken and the UK along with other nations get control within their own jusrisdictions - then domestic travel will start to be viewed as safer and grow - and various nations that trust each others' controls will de-restrict international travel between them and make it a practical proposition.



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Old 10th May 2020, 00:09
  #76 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by b1lanc View Post
Be glad it's as simple as country borders. In the US, you have to worry about state borders (and different lockdown procedures) as well as individual corporate policies. A relative who works for the gov't was told they are mission essential and needs to travel across the country. Problem - once they get there they need to self-quarantine for 14 days before they report to work at the target organization. Totally absurd.
The state where I live is has closed borders. Restricted movement within the state. In a country with closed borders.

Firewalled, on several levels, if you will.

Not absurd. Quarantine. Many countries are managing it. Those quarantined supervised physically or electronically to ensure compliance.

Has it destroyed the economy? No, it has helped keep it running.
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Old 10th May 2020, 00:12
  #77 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
The state where I live is has closed borders. Restricted movement within the state. In a country with closed borders.

Firewalled, on several levels, if you will.

Not absurd. Quarantine. Many countries are managing it. Those quarantined supervised physically or electronically to ensure compliance.

Has it destroyed the economy? No, it has helped keep it running.
The US isn't internationally firewalled and no supervision to ensure compliance. Get my drift?
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Old 10th May 2020, 00:15
  #78 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by b1lanc View Post
The US isn't internationally firewalled and no supervision to ensure compliance. Get my drift?
Good luck then.

Hope to see you on the other side.
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Old 10th May 2020, 00:18
  #79 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
Good luck then.

Hope to see you on the other side.
You as well.
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Old 10th May 2020, 00:46
  #80 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by possibleconsequences View Post
ď

..................Theres no way aviation can carry on as it was before this as it plays a critical part in spreading such diseases so probably health checks, temp scans etc etc will be with us permanently, as in the security procedures after 9/11 and perhaps a permanent reduction in flying may not be a bad thing from an environmental impact point of view.....
I keep reading comments similar to this. So how did (flu) virus spread around the globe in the past? Certainly the last 2 big events (1918 and 1957) cannot be blamed upon aviation!!
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