Ryanair to cut 3,000 jobs

[Capt Scribble]

I am not confident in a quick recovery. But a number of recent viruses have just disappeared. MoL will be there to take up the slack as soon possible and be one of the few winners from the present crisis.

[RoyHudd]

TV surveys are notoriously inaccurate. Never hold too much store by them.

Once restaurants and bars are free to open, without space restrictions, air travel demand will come bouncing back.

As soon as hotels open, public transport operates normally, the people will not bother at all about air travel.

The issue is whether the aircraft are there, whether the pilots, crew and groundstaff are there, and whether the borders are open.

I believe and hope that this all happens quickly. Sadly, the pay for our colleagues/former colleagues may be pitiable. I hope not, but expect so.

[vikingivesterled]

Originally Posted by Saulman

Utter nonsense. I suggest you read the shareholder report to see where Ryanair sit in terms of cost per pax in comparison to others. I think it’s the competitors who can’t fly empty airplanes.

I am well aware that Ryanair states they have the lowest costs in the industry. But that has nothing to do with my post. Everybody can fly profitably at 66% load. They just need a higher average fare.
O'leary is running his can't keep midle seat free line because according to him Ryanair can't make a profit with it. If he is unwilling og unable to recalculate what he needs to take to make a profit at 66% load and therefore keeps his planes grounded until he can sell the whole plane, others will be recovering faster by offering a more atractive proposition in a time where many potential passengers are looking more towards availability of social distancing than price sensitivity.
Ryanair could still find a price point under these airlines new higher level and attract pasengers if they are willing to accept the social distancing ground lules, or make alternative arrangements of physical separation instead of distancing.

[cashash]

Originally Posted by vikingivesterled

I am well aware that Ryanair states they have the lowest costs in the industry. But that has nothing to do with my post. Everybody can fly profitably at 66% load. They just need a higher average fare.

True but how do you get 66% load?. To get 2 meters separation that takes the load down to 40% or less. For any airline to run a profitable operation on 40% load factor the prices will need to be astronomical - basically you are talking about the whole aircraft having 1st class densities.

[vikingivesterled]

Originally Posted by cashash

True but how do you get 66% load?. To get 2 meters separation that takes the load down to 40% or less. For any airline to run a profitable operation on 40% load factor the prices will need to be astronomical - basically you are talking about the whole aircraft having 1st class densities.

Prices don't have to be astronomical, just 50% higher than before at 66% load = middle seat free. Probably a bit less because you don't need it for same household parties dividable in threes. If you wanted for extra sellability you could cover the separation between rows with physical separation instead of distance separation uwing the old class divider curtains. There are so many aircrafts parked now there must be lots of them laying around, at least at other airlines than Ryanair.
I have previously also suggested adding a similar physical divider between the seats in a row for complete cocooning to get the load back up to 100%. Something that physically divides the shared armrest and up to a bit over seat height. A bit less needed of that since parties from yjr same houshold wouldn't need it.
Yes physical separation using solid walls already exists in 1'st class these days. So extending the principe allso to all seats in an economy cabin could be approved faster due to precedense.

[cashash]

Originally Posted by vikingivesterled

Prices don't have to be astronomical,

Well you can argue over what constitutes astronomical but take an example of a 150 seat airbus doing a sector where the current ticket price is $50. That gives a total income for that sector at $7,500 which now instead of being divided by 150 paying punters is only divided by 60 which pushes that $50 ticket up to $125.

Is there a market for that much flying at that increase in price?

[Saulman]

Originally Posted by vikingivesterled

I am well aware that Ryanair states they have the lowest costs in the industry. But that has nothing to do with my post. Everybody can fly profitably at 66% load. They just need a higher average fare.
O'leary is running his can't keep midle seat free line because according to him Ryanair can't make a profit with it. If he is unwilling og unable to recalculate what he needs to take to make a profit at 66% load and therefore keeps his planes grounded until he can sell the whole plane, others will be recovering faster by offering a more atractive proposition in a time where many potential passengers are looking more towards availability of social distancing than price sensitivity.
Ryanair could still find a price point under these airlines new higher level and attract pasengers if they are willing to accept the social distancing ground lules, or make alternative arrangements of physical separation instead of distancing.

The notion of a middle side being empty, is madness. He’s right for not entertaining the idea before someone starts thinking they’re onto a winner.
It’s like trying to argue to install cages on the London Underground to separate people.
The onus needs to be on the airports to screen passengers, temperature checks and possible testing when that improves to quicker result time. It’s impossible to separate people in a tube, how do you go to the toilet without being less than 2m, how do you board and disembark. The list is pretty endless. There also needs to be a social responsibility wearing a mask, frequently cleaning hands etc. Also hopefully you’d hope a home test could give an effective result before going to the airport or flying.
You can certainly mark up a 66% load price, but those passengers don’t tend to fly with Ryanair anyway. You’re putting the prices up considerably which is the exact opposite of what Ryanair will do when borders open. MoL has already suggested he’s planning a price war to undercut the rest of Europe.
EasyJet as an example are traditionally more expensive before taking out the middle seat, before even discussing legacy carriers.
Once bars and hotels are allowed to open in Europe, people will return in numbers. There is many many people who, if they could would fly on holidays tomorrow. Look at the British rags, they’re more concerned when they can get to Benidorm or Faro again than deaths.

[macdo]

Originally Posted by vikingivesterled

Prices don't have to be astronomical, just 50% higher than before at 66% load = middle seat free. Probably a bit less because you don't need it for same household parties dividable in threes. If you wanted for extra sellability you could cover the separation between rows with physical separation instead of distance separation uwing the old class divider curtains. There are so many aircrafts parked now there must be lots of them laying around, at least at other airlines than Ryanair.
I have previously also suggested adding a similar physical divider between the seats in a row for complete cocooning to get the load back up to 100%. Something that physically divides the shared armrest and up to a bit over seat height. A bit less needed of that since parties from yjr same houshold wouldn't need it.
Yes physical separation using solid walls already exists in 1'st class these days. So extending the principe allso to all seats in an economy cabin could be approved faster due to precedense.

And how does all this barrier separation work with the requirement to evacuate an aircraft in 90 seconds?

[FlightDetent]

Originally Posted by cashash

which pushes that $50 ticket up to $125.

Is there a market for that much flying at that increase in price?

I certainly hope so! Restaurant chains at European airports (past security) sell beer pints - immediately consumable vanity items - at USD 10. No shortage of customers. Commuter train from the terminal to downtown around USD 15/person. Taxi 70 USD.

Although my UK-EU market experience from secondary airports suggest median price is USD 90, the new tier then $ 225. That IS significantly different. Given the elaborate yield management techniques in force, some passengers were already paying that pre-COVID, but only around 7% of load or less.

[vikingivesterled]

Originally Posted by macdo

And how does all this barrier separation work with the requirement to evacuate an aircraft in 90 seconds?

It works in first class so why not. And row separating curtains have been allowed for a long time as a movable class separation.
A company has already made a sample: https://simpleflying.com/middle-seat-privacy-screens/
However they could be larger and on the armrest instead of taking a whole seat, to allow full occupancy.

Saulman: Buses are getting seats marked as not to be occupied in certain countries so why not on the underground. They are also marking with crosses where you can stand.
CashAsh: 66% capcity is with middle seat free and already approved curtains as physical row dividers.

[lederhosen]

The point is that keeping the middle seat free does not fix the problem. Google China Airlines 112 and the SARS study if you don't believe me. I have spent a good part of my life on planes, fortunately mainly at the front, and I have no problem with the concept that the seat back does not create some sort of magical protective barrier.

[cashash]

Originally Posted by vikingivesterled

CashAsh: 66% capcity is with middle seat free and already approved curtains as physical row dividers.

With the middle seat free you dont have the 2 meter separation. For example BA A320 seats are only 17 inches wide so if you are sitting in 1A and you leave 2A free but you put someone else in 3A then you do not have 2 meter separation.

If you are saying that separation of 17 inches is now adequate then is there any point to enforced separation in the first place?.

[cashash]

Originally Posted by FlightDetent

I certainly hope so! Restaurant chains at European airports (past security) sell beer pints - immediately consumable vanity items - at USD 10. No shortage of customers. Commuter train from the terminal to downtown around USD 15/person. Taxi 70 USD.

I would suggest that if there were a market for seat prices to be 150% higher then someone would have filled that demand by now. As it is, increasing ticket prices by that much in the deepest recession since the 1930's will ensure that air travel returns to the same level as the 1930's.

[a.carneiro]

Originally Posted by Saulman

Maybe I’m missing something. But isn’t this the airline that essentially saved Boeing in 2001, and tends to grow in crisis. This is certainly unprecedented, it’s worse than 9/11 or 2008 for the industry. The key word is up to and MOL seems to be pushing hard on governments for tax adjustments etc. However, in the wake of this Norwegian based on their proposals won’t be in the market, if Stelios gets his way EasyJet are smaller, and if BA follow through on LGW. LGW as an example is a relatively empty place..MAN has no Flybe base or Thomas Cook within 6 months. I’m not sure any other airline in the world could capitalise on a crisis like Ryanair. There may well certainly be base closures, job cuts and so on. But at the end of this you’re potentially looking at an airline that wreck havoc of what’s left behind after Covid19. Ryanair will need it’s pilots to fill those holes and capitalise within 12 months. I understand the rhetoric is to despise Ryanair on this forum, but I just thought I’d throw out an alternative view.
In another unpopular sentence, MOL has been extremely accurate in everything he has said to press. I sincerely hope he follows through on court action.

Christ! Of all the airlines to thrive after this, please let it not be RYR! Nothing but contemptuous practices towards passengers and staff..

[vikingivesterled]

Originally Posted by cashash

With the middle seat free you dont have the 2 meter separation. For example BA A320 seats are only 17 inches wide so if you are sitting in 1A and you leave 2A free but you put someone else in 3A then you do not have 2 meter separation.
If you are saying that separation of 17 inches is now adequate then is there any point to enforced separation in the first place?.

Many countries operate on a recommendation of just minimum 1 metre separation.
The most mportant is to not touch the same surfaces as others. And clean your hands with sanitizer if you do. So no shared armrests are more important than no middle seat.
Virus droplet expulsion through sneezes, coughts or talking can be reduced with masks. More difficult to stop the constant tendenzy to touch your face, and even more so with a mask on. And if you touch your face with a contaminated hand and wearing a normal non hospital mask, the virus will go straight through. An alternative for every seat occupied could be if everybody wore fully covering clothing, gloves and a full solid helmet with a closed vizir. Pretty much like you see the staff these days on tv pictures from chinese hospitals.

[The Bartender]

Originally Posted by vikingivesterled

And if you touch your face with a contaminated hand and wearing a normal non hospital mask, the virus will go straight through.

There is nothing magical about the masks worn at hospitals.

[vikingivesterled]

Originally Posted by The Bartender

There is nothing magical about the masks worn at hospitals.

There are many types of masks, also in hospitals:
What you can make yoursef with a couple of pieces of cloth and an elastic.
Surgical masks, more like what everybody can get their hands on.
N95 masks from 3M with a filter.
Cloth masks with a virus killing layer of copper dust woven into a material in beteween.
Complete impermeable hole face cowering non cloth mask with a partcle filter, like a gasmask, or it's own air supply from a canister - pretty much virus proof including from hand touching.

Distracting from how Ryanair could convince governments and entice people back in the air to minimise short term and avoid long term job losses.

[macdo]

[QUOTE=vikingivesterled;10774209]It works in first class so why not. And row separating curtains have been allowed for a long time as a movable class separation.
A company has already made a sample: https://simpleflying.com/middle-seat-privacy-screens/
However they could be larger and on the armrest instead of taking a whole seat, to allow full occupancy.

Sure, that would work. So the standard fare across the Atlantic becomes what? £6000? The market for single Business (let alone 1st.) has been tried, tested and found not to work. See Silverjet et al. If we ended up configured like that, the market will have returned to the 1950's rather than the 70's. .Only the rich can travel the globe. Well it will make the Green lobby very happy indeed.
Anyway, its all conjecture from insufficient data just now. But I'm very glad that I got to retire last year and can watch this from the sidelines and my sympathies to all the crews.

[FlightDetent]

Originally Posted by cashash

I would suggest that if there were a market for seat prices to be 150% higher then someone would have filled that demand by now.

The competition over here works the other way around. As long as airlines are happy to offer $50 fares, people, of course, accept them. Pitching a ride for 125 is then pointless. In your original example, the increased 125 USD fare is something, that in my opinion, the travelling public could absorb almost within total journey cost as it is today. That cash is already being carried and thrown around.

Since this thread is RYR labelled, let's not forget this particular company and a few keen learners have 40% less cost per crew due to avoidance of proper social security contributions. If they need to increase to 150 USD, but the fully legal employers up to 225 to keep the numbers black, we do not need to wait and see to understand what will happen.

[Yaw String]

The whole idea of 2 metre physical separation,long term,is impractical and impracticable,full stop.
it won't be long (hopefully),before we will be looking back at all these distancing ideas,and shaking our heads.

In the meantime, Air France may be leading the way....see "Pam Ann Global Alliance" on YouTube!