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Future of the Airlines.

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Future of the Airlines.

Old 2nd Apr 2020, 12:03
  #61 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
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My guess is that the change is even bigger than we can image. I can see two driving forces: The travelling becomes more cost sensitive and some kind quarantines are here to stay for quite a long time.

The affect to the business travelling will be large. I assume that in, many cases, one must be in a quarantine for half a week and pass couple of healthy examination before entering into a new region. The combination of the quarantine time and the accommodation will cause large changes. At least direct flights will be in danger in thin routes?

The whole dynamics will change but in what direction?
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Old 2nd Apr 2020, 12:25
  #62 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
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Originally Posted by JPcont View Post
My guess is that the change is even bigger than we can image. I can see two driving forces: The travelling becomes more cost sensitive and some kind quarantines are here to stay for quite a long time.

The affect to the business travelling will be large. I assume that in, many cases, one must be in a quarantine for half a week and pass couple of healthy examination before entering into a new region. The combination of the quarantine time and the accommodation will cause large changes. At least direct flights will be in danger in thin routes?

The whole dynamics will change but in what direction?
Too much money invested to maim the industry like that... I do see several medical basic checks before intercontinental travel ... but not continental (i.e. European flights, USA domestic, Asian, etc...).
It is probable these checks will be something like, vaccination record up to date and checked at border control, as well as primary health check (high fever and such) at security control... perhaps even quick tests for known diseases (any SARS-CoV2 variant perhaps).
What I do see more common place now will be people wearing face mask, as Asian culture has adopted, in Europe at least. The concern will be real and people will adapt.

9-11 made security increase by a huge factor, this will likely do something similar, some way.... just another way to rack up some coins from citizens by governments imposing some sort of "Medical validity to travel" certificate.

But certainly not imposed quarantines...
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Old 2nd Apr 2020, 20:05
  #63 (permalink)  
 
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I want to agree you but I don’t think that huge investments made protects the industry any more. The price tag of this crisis is so high.

It might be something like when you arrive home country, you must quarantine yourself for couple of days and in case of any symptoms you have to go to the doctor. That would be semi fine. However, if you restrict your citizen life, you have to restrict alien life even more. That creates a quarantine automatic that nobody wants.

The system would probable not be active all the time (however, just now, long enough to change the industry) but creates a big risk for the travelling industry. It creates new dynamics to the system and the state of the system will change.

At least the tourist industry has a big challenge but they will somehow survive. The travelling salesman problem might not be primarily academic challenge any more rather than: To travel, or not to travel, that is the question: ...
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Old 3rd Apr 2020, 04:06
  #64 (permalink)  
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There was a almost total shutdown after 9/11. After some time business was back to normal.
After the initial shock things quickly recovered, but the major difference here is that people weren’t dying from outbreaks of 9/11 in towns and cities throughout the world. Even New York wasn’t locked down in the days following the attacks, let alone the rest of the world. The daily death toll from COVID-19 is probably exceeding the total death toll from 9/11 with no end in sight.

The damage is much more widespread and extensive, the recovery will take years.
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Old 3rd Apr 2020, 04:29
  #65 (permalink)  
 
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No one knows anything this is the brutal truth. Even coming up with a plan b now is proving quite hard to be honest.The only One thing I would wish anyone is to have as much savings as possible in the bank. No investments, hard cash. And even then..
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 02:27
  #66 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by navstar1 View Post
I totally agree at the moment the people in South Island have no options to depart Christchurch for an international flight back home. I know that as soon as it is safe to do so that such flights will come back on but we will all have to be very patient and abide by the stage 4 regulations.

I would like to place on record the extreme kindness and help we have received and continue to do so from the New Zealand people they have been fantastic and we are so grateful.

One point for all you legal experts out there. Have just received a round robin from the chairman of a very well known international airline saying how sorry for cancellations, delays and dropping us all in it etc. It contained the astonishing offer that the unused portions of our tickets will be held as a flight credit on the airline to use by March 21. No mention or offer of a refund instead. My understanding is that in addition to having a duty of care as they cancelled our flights they also MUST offer a full refund for the unused portion of our tickets. Any comments please as I think this is disgraceful.
An update on the above. The big International airlines are continuing to show confirmed flights on their booking web sites, taking bookings and then cancelling the flights with no explanation and only offering credits for flights in the future. People in this part of the world are starting to obtain a collection of these credits which are absolutely useless in this situation. They are now scared to book flights as they expect the same thing to happen. Surely this situation with flight credits cannot be allowed to continue. Is it not time for the aviation authorities to take firm action to prevent this sort of behaviour ?
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 02:59
  #67 (permalink)  
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It's a catch 22 for the airlines, if they don't sell future flights then there won't be any passengers on them when they take off but if they do sell tickets the flights may not be allowed to operate. Whilst cash flow needs to be maintained, it shouldn't be at passengers expense. A flight credit is of very little use to someone who needed to travel last week for a specific reason which no longer applies.

Airlines need to guarantee an immediate refund back to the passengers credit card as soon as a cancellation takes place. There are people trying to get home who have endured multiple cancellations and whose credit cards are now maxed out until their money is returned, or who have been offered rebooking within 12 months when they will probably be unable to go anywhere.

Hub airlines will likely suffer more in the aftermath as passengers will want a direct flight between two relatively unaffected countries rather than a transit where they mix with people from all over the world. Countries will recover at different times so for example in six months Australia and the UK may be clear but India and Africa are still badly affected. Emirates may have to fly Sydney - London via Dubai but with the stop in Dubai simply to refuel and change crew, all pax remain onboard and no new pax join the flight. This may build up to limited transits being allowed, but the major crossroads of pax from all over the mixing together will be out for a long time to come.
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 03:24
  #68 (permalink)  
 
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Totally agree with the above. As I see it some major airlines are using passengers money as interest free loans with no guarantee as to when or if it will ever be repaid. This situation is NOT acceptable.
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 06:04
  #69 (permalink)  
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A fair solution would be for the airline to block funds on pax credit cards similarly to hotels and car hire companies. Once the flight departs the airline is credited whether the passenger is onboard or not.

This is fair to both sides as pax aren't charged for flights which are cancelled and airlines know that they will be paid if the flight goes ahead.

Some people may book on two or three airlines in anticipation of cancellations leaving empty seats and then expect refunds.
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 08:17
  #70 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GlueBall View Post
The Covid-19 global "stay-at-home" lock-downs has amplified the work-from-home concept.
Realistically, the emphasis for most peeps is the "at home" - with very little of the "work" bit getting done. Yes, some can fully work from home, but not by any means a majority.
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 11:12
  #71 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by krismiler View Post
A fair solution would be for the airline to block funds on pax credit cards similarly to hotels and car hire companies. Once the flight departs the airline is credited whether the passenger is onboard or not.

This is fair to both sides as pax aren't charged for flights which are cancelled and airlines know that they will be paid if the flight goes ahead.

Some people may book on two or three airlines in anticipation of cancellations leaving empty seats and then expect refunds.
excellent idea but I bet they would never agree to it as they far prefer to have the money in their bank accounts, The IATA web site is interesting as it defines their altitude to credits rather than refunds at the present time in order to keep airlines in business, Something like $16 billion of customers funds being withheld at the moment an amazing sum, The comments from their twitter feed to the IATA position should make the airlines realise what the travelling public think of their refund policy. It makes very grim reading for them but I doubt if anything will change. To sum up we have been well and truly stuffed.


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Old 6th Apr 2020, 14:37
  #72 (permalink)  
kpd
 
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Originally Posted by navstar1 View Post
excellent idea but I bet they would never agree to it as they far prefer to have the money in their bank accounts, The IATA web site is interesting as it defines their altitude to credits rather than refunds at the present time in order to keep airlines in business, Something like $16 billion of customers funds being withheld at the moment an amazing sum, The comments from their twitter feed to the IATA position should make the airlines realise what the travelling public think of their refund policy. It makes very grim reading for them but I doubt if anything will change. To sum up we have been well and truly stuffed.
16 billion dollars is a huge sum for the travelling public to have unintentionally "lent" to the airlines--who of course may not survive- it will take them quite some time to forget that!!!What is the position of the credit card companies in this situation?
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Old 6th Apr 2020, 16:44
  #73 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting concepts and ideas on how the international airline future will look. My feeling is that if a vaccine is developed in the next 6 months we will return to air travel procedures much as they were previously. We will all acknowledge the health dangers but lowest price will prevail unfortunately.
If we stay grounded more than 6 months it will be a whole new ballgame. Business and tourist passengers will have gotten used to not flying and the whole experience may need to be justified as a safe and affordable transport option.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 00:33
  #74 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by navstar1 View Post
I totally agree at the moment the people in South Island have no options to depart Christchurch for an international flight back home. I know that as soon as it is safe to do so that such flights will come back on but we will all have to be very patient and abide by the stage 4 regulations.
According to Simple Flying, Lufthansa are flying A380s and B747s into Christchurch as well as Auckland for 'rescue' flights. These flights get a tech stop in Bangkok, but I don't think the SLC are allowed off. That's a l-o-n-g time in Seat 42E

The NZ regulations have now been eased to allow tourists to travel to Auckland or Christchurch if they have a confirmed 'fly home' booking
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 00:44
  #75 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kiwi grey View Post
According to Simple Flying, Lufthansa are flying A380s and B747s into Christchurch as well as Auckland for 'rescue' flights. These flights get a tech stop in Bangkok, but I don't think the SLC are allowed off. That's a l-o-n-g time in Seat 42E

The NZ regulations have now been eased to allow tourists to travel to Auckland or Christchurch if they have a confirmed 'fly home' booking
Many thanks for the info much appreciated. I think the Lufthansa flights are being arranged by the German government to get their nationals back to Germany.Well done to them shame HMG in the UK has not done the same. Meanwhile beautiful weather here think we might stay!
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 04:28
  #76 (permalink)  
 
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On the topic of refunds, I had a booking with Lufthansa to Dammam that was cancelled on Mar 13. They offered a full refund or a voucher. I took the refund, which I was told would be processed within 10-15 working days.

As of yet, nothing. Today I called Lufthansa and they said that due to the ‘backlog’, it will take 2-3 MONTHS to be refunded. As sympathetic as I am to plight of the Lufthansa Group, this is clearly a case of sitting on the cash for as long as possible.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 14:45
  #77 (permalink)  
kpd
 
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Originally Posted by reverserunlocked View Post
On the topic of refunds, I had a booking with Lufthansa to Dammam that was cancelled on Mar 13. They offered a full refund or a voucher. I took the refund, which I was told would be processed within 10-15 working days.

As of yet, nothing. Today I called Lufthansa and they said that due to the ‘backlog’, it will take 2-3 MONTHS to be refunded. As sympathetic as I am to plight of the Lufthansa Group, this is clearly a case of sitting on the cash for as long as possible.
Others have apparently been luckier but I was told refund with BA will be 6-8 weeks. At least both these national carriers are giving actual refunds- you aren't given that option with many so-called major airlines especially in the Middle East.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 16:37
  #78 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by navstar1 View Post
Many thanks for the info much appreciated. I think the Lufthansa flights are being arranged by the German government to get their nationals back to Germany.Well done to them shame HMG in the UK has not done the same. Meanwhile beautiful weather here think we might stay!
Indeed they have been arranged by the German Foreign Office or Auswärtiges Amt.
Flights into NZ were flown by Lufthansa B-747-8 with a technical stop in Haneda starting back March 26th.



LH NZ Flights


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Old 7th Apr 2020, 16:59
  #79 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kpd View Post
Others have apparently been luckier but I was told refund with BA will be 6-8 weeks. At least both these national carriers are giving actual refunds- you aren't given that option with many so-called major airlines especially in the Middle East.
I booked with my Amex card. It appears that you can raise a chargeback with them and they will fairly promptly apply a temporary credit to your account while they sorry it out, which effectively gives you the money back at that point.

My parents are particularly angry with easyJet as not only have they paid for a flight to Portugal next week that has been cancelled, but the website option to ‘rebook another date’ prompted the inputting of my father’s credit card details again. He was then charged in full for the flights for the new date. No word on how he gets his original fare back and of course the call centre is ‘very busy’. Not a good show.
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Old 7th Apr 2020, 19:08
  #80 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
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American Airlines Flights average scheduled flights operating out of NYC airports between April 2019 and starting April 7, 2020

Airport Last April April 7, 2020
LGA 170 8
JFK 80 3
EWR 21 2

I don't know how quickly the entire infrastructure rebounds from this.

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