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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 10th Apr 2020, 14:59
  #401 (permalink)  
 
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Liquidity and government response

I think it will all depend on individual airline's liquidity combined with the response of the government in which they're based. It's going to need both of these things for each airline to survive all this.
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Old 11th Apr 2020, 02:50
  #402 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe this has been touched on earlier, but in the US at least, the Federal government doesn't control the lock down. It didn't institute the shelter in place orders. The state governments did. For an edict from our Federal government telling people it's time to come out of their rabbit holes to be effective will take three things. First, the states will have to agree. Admittedly the Federal government could use bailout money to encourage them, but since those conditions aren't in the Congressional bailout authorization, it would likely face an immediate test in court. However, even if that succeeds, the second is that companies will have to agree. For the purposes of this discussion, that means that companies restart business travel and that won't happen until the business flyer is confident they won't risk death to attend a conference or make a sales call. Finally, the people themselves need to agree. And, once again, for the purposes of this discussion, that means people will start booking flights to Disneyland again.

This is all about trust, not governmental edicts, and trust in our Federal government at this moment is in short supply. Perhaps the day we can buy an n95 mask, hand sanitizer and toilet paper at our local store again, the day we don't have to stand in USSR-style lines to get in a grocery store to buy food, the day we're not seeing photos of mass graves in New York parks, the trust barometer might be high enough to make the transition.
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Old 11th Apr 2020, 22:23
  #403 (permalink)  
 
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Spoiler
 
Al Jazeera reporting that the UK is the new epicentre.

If true then it will be a wee whiley yet afore we're supping Tennants doon the local...

...relevence here?

It'll be awhile yet. Airlines with good balance books & effective lobbying...🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
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Old 11th Apr 2020, 22:38
  #404 (permalink)  
 
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A Different Poit of View

Originally Posted by GAGuy View Post
Maybe this has been touched on earlier, but in the US at least, the Federal government doesn't control the lock down. It didn't institute the shelter in place orders. The state governments did. For an edict from our Federal government telling people it's time to come out of their rabbit holes to be effective will take three things. First, the states will have to agree. Admittedly the Federal government could use bailout money to encourage them, but since those conditions aren't in the Congressional bailout authorization, it would likely face an immediate test in court. However, even if that succeeds, the second is that companies will have to agree. For the purposes of this discussion, that means that companies restart business travel and that won't happen until the business flyer is confident they won't risk death to attend a conference or make a sales call. Finally, the people themselves need to agree. And, once again, for the purposes of this discussion, that means people will start booking flights to Disneyland again.

This is all about trust, not governmental edicts, and trust in our Federal government at this moment is in short supply. Perhaps the day we can buy an n95 mask, hand sanitizer and toilet paper at our local store again, the day we don't have to stand in USSR-style lines to get in a grocery store to buy food, the day we're not seeing photos of mass graves in New York parks, the trust barometer might be high enough to make the transition.
Living on the left coast, I guess I can understand your attitude. However, the federal government and the president lead the country, constitutionally and morally. If the president says the economy must be restarted, people will be glad to hear it and will force state governments to follow suit, where practical. This will be a rolling start up depending on the situation on the ground. In my neck of the woods there are no lines anywhere, and we don't see CNN.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 06:26
  #405 (permalink)  
 
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They say it costs 10 times the amount to find a new customer than it does to keep one. The airline and travel companies are about to find out.

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Old 12th Apr 2020, 15:38
  #406 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by EPHD75 View Post
Living on the left coast, I guess I can understand your attitude. However, the federal government and the president lead the country, constitutionally and morally. If the president says the economy must be restarted, people will be glad to hear it and will force state governments to follow suit, where practical. This will be a rolling start up depending on the situation on the ground. In my neck of the woods there are no lines anywhere, and we don't see CNN.
It's a lot different in the northeast - nightly news barrage on death counts (pick your channel), lines at some supermarkets and then one way aisles and blocks to stand on in the stores. Parks closed, but you can walk around the block - many people doing that. And the governor of NY and mayor of NYC are arguing about closing schools for the rest of the calendar year - so I guess you can add cities to the list of who would have to agree.

On the flip side, the shelves in the local super are starting to look full again (except TP). Everyone is teleworking - a completely foreign concept to many employers and employees. That said, I think people are getting somewhat used to it (I home-officed in the 90's and 00's and loved it) and it will reduce the need/urge to travel for business. Try to buy a webcam - you can't. I'm getting a rebate from my auto insurer because of lack of driving and less chance of an accident - unthinkable a couple of months ago.

It will be a slow build up to fill aircraft and increase flights. Even my last trip to the west in late January before Covid restrictions were in place, I was on half full aircraft in deserted main hubs at prime Mon-Fri business travel hours. AA alone has cut flights at the three metro NYC airports from 271 last April to 13 now. I simply don't see a quick recovery regardless of what states or fed or city gov'ts allow/encourage. Some regional airports could lose service completely. Even with low fuel costs, the airlines will be hard pressed to offer inexpensive fares at the outset and many people (small business employees who would have traveled on vacation) simply will not have the funds to take that trip they had planned.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 16:14
  #407 (permalink)  
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I attended a few on-line briefings last week and the forecast is not that good for a variety of reasons . Most agree that the first rebound is unlikely to restart within 6 months ( meaning October at earliest) and it will likely be with 10-20% of flights schedules last January .A rebound beyond 60% is likely to take up to 2 years. Passenger demand due economic and fear of travel far from home is likely to restrict traffic to domestic in the initial phases .( intra Europe is considered domestic traffic) . During that time there will be many airlines that will either cease to operate , or restrict their size significantly, , and probably new entrants in the market with a different business model.

Another point raised is the maintenance of aircraft parked and the leasing business .
A working group reporting to EASA warned that in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, there will be a high level of disruption in the leasing aircraft with multiple change of owners and registration , but the disrupted infrastructure will prevent leasing companies and authorities to verify maintenance and maintain airworthiness of a large number of aircraft parked and stored .
Another unknown mentioned is the change in the societal perception of flying . That factor , minimized until now, will be a determining factor in the future .

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Old 12th Apr 2020, 17:47
  #408 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
I attended a few on-line briefings last week and the forecast is not that good for a variety of reasons . Most agree that the first rebound is unlikely to restart within 6 months ( meaning October at earliest) and it will likely be with 10-20% of flights schedules last January .A rebound beyond 60% is likely to take up to 2 years. Passenger demand due economic and fear of travel far from home is likely to restrict traffic to domestic in the initial phases .( intra Europe is considered domestic traffic) . During that time there will be many airlines that will either cease to operate , or restrict their size significantly, , and probably new entrants in the market with a different business model.
Another factor that will impact travel is the health of the support structure that get travelers into, through, and out of airports.
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Old 12th Apr 2020, 18:39
  #409 (permalink)  
 
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I am very optimistic

This is unprecedented. Governments are in unchartered territory. However we have a huge advantage: the web. The web allows all of
us to interconnect beyond boundaries hence knowledge can be instantly shared. The biggest advantage, in addition to shared global knowledge, is the possibility to electronically inject money into the economy in real-time. We are basically going to be fine. It is not going to happen overnight. There will be new measures like mandatory KN95 masks for all air travellers and crew however we will back to normal business quite soon. As I said from start the biggest concern is the risk of civil unrest. If governments will keep injecting cash and the unemployed will get assistance the entire system will recover within a year. Significant Government's help is critical. Nothing else will work this time.

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Old 12th Apr 2020, 19:22
  #410 (permalink)  
 
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There is one up-side. My employer has gone all in on the latest management fad where no one has a desk anymore or any personal space and everyone works crammed into one third the space to save money on leasing costs. I think it is safe to say hot desking and side by seating in totally open plan offices is an idea which is going to go away fast.

I think the biggest threat to airlines is the fact that all the video conferencing programs have a got a huge shot in the arm from virus related restrictions. Lot's of business and government workers, including me, are using them regularly for the first time and which I think will permanent reduce the demand for business travel as was traditionally face to face meetings now will be done remotely. Since business travel is the core money maker for all of the legacy carriers, this has huge implications for their future.

Freight flying however is booming and will IMO, be where there is money to made going forward.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 00:06
  #411 (permalink)  
 
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Seems like just yesterday, there was talk about a pilot shortage, and now there is concern that there may not be enough jobs for those who are qualified pilots. Not funny.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 01:02
  #412 (permalink)  
 
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Seems like just yesterday, there was talk about a pilot shortage, and now there is concern that there may not be enough jobs for those who are qualified pilots. Not funny.
In 2018, global passenger trip demand was predicted to be 7 billion annually by 2035. The forecast requirement was for an additional 637,000 additional pilots and 648,000 technicians globally. While Covid-19 is going to put a big dip in upward demand, overall, it will be temporary. I think we are looking at a vaccine or finding an existing or new drug which minimises symptoms before we see travel return to being discretionary. But while the virus kills, it isn't going to impact long term global population growth which is what drives overall demand.

Commercial reality will, mean that there will be rationalisation within the airline industry. The weak will go to the wall. There will be less choice, for a while anyway. We will necessarily end up with Government intervention and part nationalisation of some airlines until the market recovers and Governments can offload their shareholdings for a profit. Some pilots will have flown their last flights. Most will fly again. Market forces will be tough on our terms and conditions in the short term.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 02:55
  #413 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by industry insider View Post
... I think we are looking at a vaccine or finding an existing or new drug which minimises symptoms before we see travel return to being discretionary...
Commercial reality will, mean that there will be rationalisation within the airline industry. The weak will go to the wall. There will be less choice, for a while anyway. We will necessarily end up with Government intervention and part nationalisation of some airlines until the market recovers and Governments can offload their shareholdings for a profit. Some pilots will have flown their last flights. Most will fly again. Market forces will be tough on our terms and conditions in the short term.
I am no expert, but this makes sense to me. Airlines will fly again in my opinion, but it may take some time to fly across borders. Why then are most people stating that state operated companies will be around, including Singapore? I wouldn't expect them to do much flying and they do not fly domestically surely, but am very willing to be proven wrong.

What airlines are actually most likely to still be here in 1 to 2 years? (I hope they all do, but we need to be realistic).
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 10:05
  #414 (permalink)  
 
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Not who, but HOW

Reconsidering the question as how individuals and operators will survive would provide ideas for meaningful activity opposed to guess work about the future of a very uncertain world.

How can the current uncertainty be managed.

The world has changed, unlikely to return to anything like the normality that we had in the short term. Thus how far ahead; 6 months will be a transition at best, more likely mopping up and fighting rearguard actions.

How to exist until a favourable situation evolves; how is 'favourable' to be defined.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 10:08
  #415 (permalink)  
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What airlines are actually most likely to still be here in 1 to 2 years? (I hope they all do, but we need to be realistic).
Nor sure which ones will still be there 2 years from now , but some States have already indicated that they will nationalize their National carriers ( e.g. France with AF and Italy with Alitalia ) I can guess similar statements have been or will be made for others like Singapore Airlines or Emirates, Qatar, etc.. as those States basic economic model is based on their national airline. Which size they will still be is of course another question .

It is also conceivable that large Countries with little developed modern mass ground transportation infrastructure ( e.g , USA, Russia, Norway ,even Canada ) will be able to restart domestic operations on a larger scale quicker than others,


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Old 13th Apr 2020, 10:23
  #416 (permalink)  
 
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Certain flag carriers will be helped through this period. Expect to return to the 70ís.
Question is: What about all those low cost carriers?
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 10:28
  #417 (permalink)  
 
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ATC, you suggest that states will nationalise; possibly, but to do what, what need.

No country can pay out for 'nothing'; thus for what value - people, skill, economy. What is the relative cost / effectiveness of airlines vs railways, or different areas of manufacture, what will be the new economic future - existence to begin with, manufacturing, trade, but trade what with whom, then transport - plane or 'sail'.
The 'green card', individual adaptation, new norms, communication, travel, leisure. Food, well being, security.

Very difficult, 'big call' situation; no simple answer, if any. Thus be flexible be prepared to adapt, individual, operator, country.

fox niner, no return to the past, only an uncertain future.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 11:21
  #418 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by safetypee View Post
ATC, you suggest that states will nationalise; possibly, but to do what, what need..
Some Airlines will be declared an essential public service . For France it is mainly because of the so called " territorial continuity" between the mainland and the numerous islands, territories and departments it has spread over the globe , From Corsica to Tahiti , passing by Guyana , Martinique/Guadeloupe, , Reunion, New Caledonia..etc.. Frequent Air Liaisons are essential for the State maintain its governance.and it does not have its own State aircraft fleet to do that anymore.
Keeping jobs and expertise during this crisis will also be a major consideration for a centralized State. .
For other States it might be that the "national" airline is part of the Defense system in case of crisis/war.

Many years ago when KLM was in financial trouble and could not find a partner to buy them , I was told that the State was considering nationalizing part of the airline because transporting troops in case of crisis was one of the tasks the airline still had signed with the Dutch Military , (which did not have any large transport aircraft at the time). I do not know if this is still the case. . But there are many reasons a State wants to nationalize its airline other than for a pure business case.

no return to the past, only an uncertain future
That I also agree fully .
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 11:59
  #419 (permalink)  
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What about all those low cost carriers?
Between reduced personal discretional spending money for many in the near future, more emphasis on "staycation" holidays, much easier video conferencing for business, and heightened climate awareness, I opine that there will be a reduced demand for low cost carriers for a long time to come.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 16:14
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"reduced personal discretional spending money for many in the near future, more emphasis on "staycation" holidays, much easier video conferencing for business, and heightened climate awareness, I opine that there will be a reduced demand for low cost carriers for a long time to come"

A large number of LCC passengers don't do video conferencing for business and most don't give a fig about climate change. All they want is to get drunk in the sun and shag anything that has a pulse. It's their right innit. I think two LCCs in Europe should be ok.

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