I attended a few on-line briefings last week and the forecast is not that good for a variety of reasons . Most agree that the first rebound is unlikely to restart within 6 months ( meaning October at earliest) and it will likely be with 10-20% of flights schedules last January .A rebound beyond 60% is likely to take up to 2 years. Passenger demand due economic and fear of travel far from home is likely to restrict traffic to domestic in the initial phases .( intra Europe is considered domestic traffic) . During that time there will be many airlines that will either cease to operate , or restrict their size significantly, , and probably new entrants in the market with a different business model.
Another point raised is the maintenance of aircraft parked and the leasing business .
A working group reporting to EASA warned that in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, there will be a high level of disruption in the leasing aircraft with multiple change of owners and registration , but the disrupted infrastructure will prevent leasing companies and authorities to verify maintenance and maintain airworthiness of a large number of aircraft parked and stored .
Another unknown mentioned is the change in the societal perception of flying . That factor , minimized until now, will be a determining factor in the future .