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Flybe in trouble ?

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Flybe in trouble ?

Old 15th Jan 2020, 11:29
  #181 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SMT Member View Post
What I don't understand is how, accounting wise, FlyBe has presumably used the APD funds for purposes other than intended.

To my simple mind, the APD should have been parked on an escrow-type account, from which the funds would be transferred to the authorities at prescribed intervals.
I'm no sort of expert on airline financial flows, but I found out a long time ago that funds paid to any sort of central organisation that one assumes are earmarked for particular expenditure get used to provide day-to-day liquidity if the designated expenditure isn't immediate.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 11:42
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Anyone else thinking that Willie Walsh should but out? IF the government modify APD for all domestics, then BA will be one of the biggest gainers. Its not like Big Airways' predecessors were never subsidised, when they were bailed out for decades by UK plc, as BEA and BOAC. And their bad decisions resulted in not just job losses, but the loss of the UK aviation industry. They rejected a larger, more marketable Trident, a more economical VC10, they even demanded BAC1-11-500s which were different to all others, FFS. And it goes on - Boeing 767s with RR engines that almost no one else was interested in, and I read recently that their A350 fleet have smaller galleys than just about every other produced so far by Airbus.

Whilst I understand that it's not the same as TCX or MON, I too think the government have done a good thing. If you live within 50 miles of London or Manchester, you have lots of travel choices. Most other places don't. London, and London Airways, don't need to get richer with the demise of an airline that really doesn't compete with them.

I'm sure there will be lots of caveats, including looking at lease terms, management decisions, etc, although with any UK government, that might be wishful thinking. Part of me is thinking along the lines of KeyPilot, and wondering if we'll be back here within three years.....

OTEA
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 12:02
  #183 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OntimeexceptACARS View Post
Anyone else thinking that Willie Walsh should but out? IF the government modify APD for all domestics, then BA will be one of the biggest gainers. Its not like Big Airways' predecessors were never subsidised, when they were bailed out for decades by UK plc, as BEA and BOAC. And their bad decisions resulted in not just job losses, but the loss of the UK aviation industry. They rejected a larger, more marketable Trident, a more economical VC10, they even demanded BAC1-11-500s which were different to all others, FFS. And it goes on - Boeing 767s with RR engines that almost no one else was interested in, and I read recently that their A350 fleet have smaller galleys than just about every other produced so far by Airbus.

Whilst I understand that it's not the same as TCX or MON, I too think the government have done a good thing. If you live within 50 miles of London or Manchester, you have lots of travel choices. Most other places don't. London, and London Airways, don't need to get richer with the demise of an airline that really doesn't compete with them.

I'm sure there will be lots of caveats, including looking at lease terms, management decisions, etc, although with any UK government, that might be wishful thinking. Part of me is thinking along the lines of KeyPilot, and wondering if we'll be back here within three years.....

OTEA
I think as a boss of a rival airline hes well within his rights to ask questions. The government have repeatedly said it's not their place to bail out ailing businesses yet here they are. APD wont be dropped as the tree huggers would be outraged, and probably descend on the capital in their thousands kicking off. This is going to set a precedent for all sorts of businesses to plead poverty and ask for tax breaks or deferrals as and when it suits the books. The only people bailing out flybe should have been its wealthy consortium owners. But they didnt, why? The reason's obvious.

As for a350 galleys, not relevant but BA keep their planes long enough that no one else wants them afterwards anyway.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 12:16
  #184 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone else thinking that Willie Walsh should but out?
Absolutely he should. IAG have called out "an inappropriate use of public money" when it seems unlikely that they know what has actually been agreed between Flybe's owners and HMG.

It's almost like he can't bear the thought that an airline linked with Virgin has had some help.

A number of his airlines will stand to benefit if a change to APD policy does come about.

Having said all of the above, I am still of the view that Flybe's own past senior management are largely responsible for the mess that has resulted. It just reeks of buryheadinsand'itis

I am also of the view that the jobs and the services that Flybe provide were worthy of the assistance (whatever it really is) that has now been forthcoming.


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Old 15th Jan 2020, 12:22
  #185 (permalink)  
 
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As an ex Monarch employee I feel somewhat upset that they didn’t get the same help as Flybe however I feel it is the correct decision.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 13:08
  #186 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Jumbo2 View Post
Diesel cars are better per passenger km then Q400 with only one passenger in. What a comparison in the quote above...
True, but my comparison is more realistic than that possibly jokey inversion.

However this airline has been run, it can't have been bad enough to stubbornly continue with routes regularly attracting a single passenger.

i did notice a Southampton to London City around Christmas a year ago, but I assume that was mainly positioning for the next day, rather than trying to attract imaginary commuters frustrated by no trains over the holiday.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 13:18
  #187 (permalink)  
 
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Lightbulb

I think it's clear to anyone reading this thread that if Flibea want to survive as a business then major change is going to be needed. In my opinion, they are going to have to take on their rivals in rail and bus head on. No other way about it. From one look at their website I can see the major flaw with their business plan straight away. Why are they running flights from Aberdeen to NewQuay? Or Aberdeen to the East Midlands? How many people actually commute to work between these locations? Exactly, not many. If they want to make money. Serious money. Then they are going to have to take on the big boys in the golden commuter routes. If they want to make something of themselves then they should be taking on Citylinc and Scottrail on the Glasgow to Edinburgh route! Think about it for a minute. The bus is cheap as chips but the roads are choc-a-bloc. The rail is fast but it costs like £26 a day and you don't even get a seat. IF they were to do a return fare between Glasgow and Edinburgh for say the same price as the train I bet you that they would fill their planes with 100% capacity. People would rush to buy tickets between the two cities because they could be guaranteed a seat unlike the train. People might even be happy to pay the £26 knowing that they will get just that, a seat. Over-time they could chip away at Scottrails customer base and to meet growing demand expand their fleet so that they could offer a flight every 10 minutes in both directions during peak hours of 6.30am and 9am and the commute home between 4.30pm and 7pm. There would be no flights between these rush hour times as it wouldn't be profitable and so between 9am and 4.30pm they could perform their other routes for those looking to go on holiday to longer distance places. This profitable model could then be replicated all over the UK between nearby cities where bus and rail services are letting customers down.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 13:22
  #188 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by qwertyuiop View Post
As an ex Monarch employee I feel somewhat upset that they didnít get the same help as Flybe however I feel it is the correct decision.
As an ex Monarch employee myself, I disagree with you. First and foremost I would hate to see Flybe go bust as I use them regularly and my experience of them has always been good.

I smell a rat in all this. As it stands now the government has deferred some (or all) of their APD arrears, with a stipulation that the owners invest money into the company. Flybe (Connect Airways) is owned by 3 big companies who are quite successful and are not short of a few quid.

Obviously they have shown to the government that their turnaround plan will provide the required result. If they are certain that their plan works why go cap in hand to the government and why not loan the business your own money. By making it such a public show they have done a lot of damage to the brand. Unfortunately I have a gut feeling that before long we will be back at square one.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 14:07
  #189 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone else thinking that Willie Walsh should butt out?
Definitely! Typical ba attitude reminiscent of the Dirty Tricks era. Whining Willie does not offer competition on most of Flybe's routes; I suspect his motives are to try and get ba's grubby hands on Flybe's Heathrow slots.

He should note that El Jefe's dumbing down of ba now means that it is seen as 'like flying Ryanair but without the charm'.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 14:11
  #190 (permalink)  
 
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CEJM, could not agree more. If the shareholders are convinced the plan will work have they been asked to indemnify the taxpayer in the event Flybe or Virgin Connect cannot repay when due. Also wondered where Stobart Air sits in all of this. Have they required cash since the change of ownership, will they require cash. If so is this facility with the UK taxpayer also providing funding?
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 16:02
  #191 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Weathergirly View Post
Widely reported this morning Flybe on the brink of collapse.
Virgin & Stobart purchased all the Airlines assets exactly 12 months ago and now they are sending the Airline down the river. White collar criminals.
Virgin just wanted flybes slots down in LHR. .😬
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 17:12
  #192 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
IAG have beaten him to it (via the EU - cue another good frothing from the Daily Mail mob).

Any chance they could restore our local bus service too while they're at it? I mean, what's good for Cornwall etc must be good for rural Oxfordshire.
Willie Walsh / IAG would, as BA still has to make pension deficiency payments that are tied up to when they sold BA Connect to Flybe

Ttfn

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Old 15th Jan 2020, 17:17
  #193 (permalink)  
 
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This is of course the same Flybe which tried to use its big company muscle to destroy Loganair and its long standing business on the Highlands & Islands routes a couple years ago. Fortunately the local communities involved saw through it - the pile of money lost by Flybe on this vindictive venture presumably contributed greatly to the current ills.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 17:26
  #194 (permalink)  
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If I do a search for british airways subsidy, I find articles in the last 2 to 4 years discussing subsidies to BA for operations at Baltimore/Washington and Pittsburgh

A 10 year old article is about £80 million of public subsidy here to British Airways, Ryanair, Loganair and BAA

Is subsidy from public funds really against Mr Walsh's religion?

No, 5 years ago he was talking about asking government subsidy for BA's use of biofuels
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 17:53
  #195 (permalink)  
 
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Willie Walsh certainly does need to butt out.
Flybe have the most fuel efficient fleet in the sector and yet due to the recent publicity they currently are under siege from the environmental lobby. The searchlight may well lock on to another target soon.
It is not so long since BA operated three flights a day with an empty four engine jet between Manchester and Heathrow producing thousands of tons of C02 and yet not generating any APD. This was simply to protect their precious slots at fortress Heathrow and contributed nothing other than a pile of pollution.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 19:15
  #196 (permalink)  
 
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ISTR that without Government approval LHR won’t get its planned expansion.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 19:46
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Originally Posted by BigBlue1 View Post
I think it's clear to anyone reading this thread that if Flibea want to survive as a business then major change is going to be needed. In my opinion, they are going to have to take on their rivals in rail and bus head on. No other way about it. From one look at their website I can see the major flaw with their business plan straight away. Why are they running flights from Aberdeen to NewQuay? Or Aberdeen to the East Midlands? How many people actually commute to work between these locations? Exactly, not many. If they want to make money. Serious money. Then they are going to have to take on the big boys in the golden commuter routes. If they want to make something of themselves then they should be taking on Citylinc and Scottrail on the Glasgow to Edinburgh route! Think about it for a minute. The bus is cheap as chips but the roads are choc-a-bloc. The rail is fast but it costs like £26 a day and you don't even get a seat. IF they were to do a return fare between Glasgow and Edinburgh for say the same price as the train I bet you that they would fill their planes with 100% capacity. People would rush to buy tickets between the two cities because they could be guaranteed a seat unlike the train. People might even be happy to pay the £26 knowing that they will get just that, a seat. Over-time they could chip away at Scottrails customer base and to meet growing demand expand their fleet so that they could offer a flight every 10 minutes in both directions during peak hours of 6.30am and 9am and the commute home between 4.30pm and 7pm. There would be no flights between these rush hour times as it wouldn't be profitable and so between 9am and 4.30pm they could perform their other routes for those looking to go on holiday to longer distance places. This profitable model could then be replicated all over the UK between nearby cities where bus and rail services are letting customers down.
Taking your Edinburgh to Glasgow example, do you really think that flying is preferable to the train? If you are in Princes Street and you want to get to central Glasgow, just compare the journey times.
Train - walk to Waverley, get on train, arrive Queen St. walk to George Sq. Total journey time = ~90 minutes
Plane - tram/taxi to Turnhouse, security, flight to Glasgow, bus/taxi to George Sq. Total journey time = ~130 minutes, assuming Kingston Bridge isnít log jammed.
If that doesnít convince you, add in the taxi/bus/tram fares to the plane and it becomes even more unattractive, even if youíve got to stand all the way on the train.
Iím sure there are profitable routes for FlyBe connecting the business hubs of UK, times and routes are the key.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 21:17
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Originally Posted by BigBlue1 View Post
If they want to make something of themselves then they should be taking on Citylinc and Scottrail on the Glasgow to Edinburgh route! Think about it for a minute. The bus is cheap as chips but the roads are choc-a-bloc. The rail is fast but it costs like £26 a day and you don't even get a seat. IF they were to do a return fare between Glasgow and Edinburgh for say the same price as the train I bet you that they would fill their planes with 100% capacity.
Other than the fact that it makes no sense logistically, I suspect another reason Flybe didn't offer EDI/GLA for £26 return might be something to do with the fact that (until now) after APD was deducted, their resulting revenue per pax would have been precisely £0.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 21:20
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Originally Posted by BigBlue1 View Post
I think it's clear to anyone reading this thread that if Flibea want to survive as a business then major change is going to be needed. In my opinion, they are going to have to take on their rivals in rail and bus head on. No other way about it. From one look at their website I can see the major flaw with their business plan straight away. Why are they running flights from Aberdeen to NewQuay? Or Aberdeen to the East Midlands? How many people actually commute to work between these locations? Exactly, not many. If they want to make money. Serious money. Then they are going to have to take on the big boys in the golden commuter routes. If they want to make something of themselves then they should be taking on Citylinc and Scottrail on the Glasgow to Edinburgh route! Think about it for a minute. The bus is cheap as chips but the roads are choc-a-bloc. The rail is fast but it costs like £26 a day and you don't even get a seat. IF they were to do a return fare between Glasgow and Edinburgh for say the same price as the train I bet you that they would fill their planes with 100% capacity. People would rush to buy tickets between the two cities because they could be guaranteed a seat unlike the train. People might even be happy to pay the £26 knowing that they will get just that, a seat. Over-time they could chip away at Scottrails customer base and to meet growing demand expand their fleet so that they could offer a flight every 10 minutes in both directions during peak hours of 6.30am and 9am and the commute home between 4.30pm and 7pm. There would be no flights between these rush hour times as it wouldn't be profitable and so between 9am and 4.30pm they could perform their other routes for those looking to go on holiday to longer distance places. This profitable model could then be replicated all over the UK between nearby cities where bus and rail services are letting customers down.
Are you joking here?

I commute through to Glasgow on a daily basis and the train is 42 minutes. Even with a flight time of 20 minutes (assuming thereís no hold at GLA or EDI, but at morning peak this happens sometimes) Getting to/from the airport in Edinburgh and Glasgow adds easily an hour on to the journey. Factor in being at the airport an hour before and your Edinburgh - Glasgow takes over 2-hours. Much longer than the 42 min train.
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Old 15th Jan 2020, 21:21
  #200 (permalink)  
 
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Well I fly from Newquay to Aberdeen and all he flights are always full. I also take issue with the stupid comment that London to cornwall is quicker by train. Just over an hour by plane and 6 hours by train. At least 6 hours by train. In fact if I have to use the train I drive an hour and half to Exeter rather than my local station which is 3 hours by train to exeter
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