Our kids — future Career
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Our kids — future Career
Hi
Not rumour or news but something that might interest all of us pilots with kids who want to fly commercially one day. I have a ten year old daughter who wants to fly and displays rare focus on our home made SIM. So even if she qualifies at 21 via an excellent flight school I have in mind (so no university) we’re talking 2031 plus. Let’s discount the cyclical nature of the industry for now; my question is - what does everyone think about 2040-2060 and on. Might be a strange question but I am really interested in everyone’s predictions...thanks!
Not rumour or news but something that might interest all of us pilots with kids who want to fly commercially one day. I have a ten year old daughter who wants to fly and displays rare focus on our home made SIM. So even if she qualifies at 21 via an excellent flight school I have in mind (so no university) we’re talking 2031 plus. Let’s discount the cyclical nature of the industry for now; my question is - what does everyone think about 2040-2060 and on. Might be a strange question but I am really interested in everyone’s predictions...thanks!
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I predict most airliners will be autonomous by then. Maybe a Safety pilot on board. But they'll do no more than sit and push the odd button. A Shared senior pilot will be land based and accessible on com. When they go single crew, they;ll have to design them to fly with a zero hour pilot on board. Because without the two crew environment, there will be nowhere to learn the trade. Ryanair must be wetting themselves at the prospect of getting rid of Captains and keeping the PTF children.... On minimum wage....
Hi
Not rumour or news but something that might interest all of us pilots with kids who want to fly commercially one day. I have a ten year old daughter who wants to fly and displays rare focus on our home made SIM. So even if she qualifies at 21 via an excellent flight school I have in mind (so no university) we’re talking 2031 plus. Let’s discount the cyclical nature of the industry for now; my question is - what does everyone think about 2040-2060 and on. Might be a strange question but I am really interested in everyone’s predictions...thanks!
Not rumour or news but something that might interest all of us pilots with kids who want to fly commercially one day. I have a ten year old daughter who wants to fly and displays rare focus on our home made SIM. So even if she qualifies at 21 via an excellent flight school I have in mind (so no university) we’re talking 2031 plus. Let’s discount the cyclical nature of the industry for now; my question is - what does everyone think about 2040-2060 and on. Might be a strange question but I am really interested in everyone’s predictions...thanks!
Psychophysiological entity
For me it was a calling, for my wife a (very well paying) yob.
30-50 years ago (70’s-90’s) airline transport was basically mostly shorthaul twin engined narrow bodied with two turbofan engines slung under swept back wings aircraft operated by two crew flying at 80% of the speed of sound doing sectors between 1-4 hours, and some wide bodied aircraft with 3-4 crew doing sectors of 8-12 hours.
Today? Mostly the same with some refinements and efficiency gains.
So not much in the way of evolutionary change.
Going down to 1 or less crew would requirement trillions of dollars spent on R&D and implementation of not only what would need to be fully autonomous aircraft but also ground infrastructure and communications links. No government in the world will do that just so some airlines can make a 1% savings on their labour costs.
The future of 2 warm bodies at the front end of an airborne craft is pretty secure for at least your child’s lifetime.
The uncertain nature is really for all employment. A lot of people, businesspeople, politicians, scientists, economists etc are saying the advances in AI and automation that will occur over the next few decades will be so immense and exponential that there will be an employment crisis. There simply won’t be nearly enough jobs to go around for all those who are willing and able to work. The nature of employment overall will change dramatically and a lot of societal norms will change.
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Personally I think the only thing to change in that time Frame will mainly be about T’s & C’s, gone will be the days that being a being a pilot is a well paid and respected job (some may argue it is today), and that it’ll be the equivalent of a supermarket store manager, or the like.
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That’s 30-50 years away.
30-50 years ago (70’s-90’s) airline transport was basically mostly shorthaul twin engined narrow bodied with two turbofan engines slung under swept back wings aircraft operated by two crew flying at 80% of the speed of sound doing sectors between 1-4 hours, and some wide bodied aircraft with 3-4 crew doing sectors of 8-12 hours.
Today? Mostly the same with some refinements and efficiency gains.
So not much in the way of evolutionary change.
Going down to 1 or less crew would requirement trillions of dollars spent on R&D and implementation of not only what would need to be fully autonomous aircraft but also ground infrastructure and communications links. No government in the world will do that just so some airlines can make a 1% savings on their labour costs.
The future of 2 warm bodies at the front end of an airborne craft is pretty secure for at least your child’s lifetime.
The uncertain nature is really for all employment. A lot of people, businesspeople, politicians, scientists, economists etc are saying the advances in AI and automation that will occur over the next few decades will be so immense and exponential that there will be an employment crisis. There simply won’t be nearly enough jobs to go around for all those who are willing and able to work. The nature of employment overall will change dramatically and a lot of societal norms will change.
I don't think that's a valid comparison because amongst those AI is uniquely barely even in its early teens.
The trillions you mention will be spent because it will benefit multiple industries across many years, it simply won't be unique to aviation.
I would encourage the OP to consider that this interest may lead to a career in spaceflight, in combining AI with human factors, or in racing cars for entertainment because fun will never lose interest.
I cannot imagine her having an exciting career flying in commercial aviation because even if that discipline spans her working life which I really doubt, de-skilling and reduced compensation will make it thoroughly unattractive.
And personally I don't think any of that last paragraph matters.
Last edited by pilot9250; 16th Oct 2019 at 01:22.
The uncertain nature is really for all employment. A lot of people, business people, politicians, scientists, economists etc are saying the advances in AI and automation that will occur over the next few decades will be so immense and exponential that there will be an employment crisis. There simply won’t be nearly enough jobs to go around for all those who are willing and able to work. The nature of employment overall will change dramatically and a lot of societal norms will change.
Given airlines are reluctant to pay for changes in technology (think 737) I fail to see how the enormous infrastructure build and the complete rewrite of the regulations that would be required for AI would be justified.
There will still be pilots into the future whether it is worth the time and effort required will be the question. On that count I personally would suggest it is not a good career choice.
In reality AI is a problem looking for a solution, given how low the current accident rate is I suspect that AI will just create a whole host of problems that currently don't exist under the current Human/Machine arrangement.
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The tech with its associated redundancy and legal framework is nowhere near forcing a single pilot to lose their job.
There are still millions of truck, taxi, train and boat drivers out there. When they start losing their jobs in significant numbers maybe then it’ll be 20 years before plane drivers should get nervous.
The Ts and Cs being a pilot will make the job unbearable well before AI takes it.
There are still millions of truck, taxi, train and boat drivers out there. When they start losing their jobs in significant numbers maybe then it’ll be 20 years before plane drivers should get nervous.
The Ts and Cs being a pilot will make the job unbearable well before AI takes it.
Hi
Not rumour or news but something that might interest all of us pilots with kids who want to fly commercially one day. I have a ten year old daughter who wants to fly and displays rare focus on our home made SIM. So even if she qualifies at 21 via an excellent flight school I have in mind (so no university) we’re talking 2031 plus. Let’s discount the cyclical nature of the industry for now; my question is - what does everyone think about 2040-2060 and on. Might be a strange question but I am really interested in everyone’s predictions...thanks!
Not rumour or news but something that might interest all of us pilots with kids who want to fly commercially one day. I have a ten year old daughter who wants to fly and displays rare focus on our home made SIM. So even if she qualifies at 21 via an excellent flight school I have in mind (so no university) we’re talking 2031 plus. Let’s discount the cyclical nature of the industry for now; my question is - what does everyone think about 2040-2060 and on. Might be a strange question but I am really interested in everyone’s predictions...thanks!
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I have a ten year old daughter who wants to fly and displays rare focus on our home made SIM.
In the start of my flying career, I was finishing a degree, (boring) but discovered flying through a PPL course. My instructor, said the Airlines would never be hiring (in the near future) and he quit soon after I soloed in a C-150.
I realized that flying interested me a lot more than my academic studies. A year or so later, I joined a family friend on a ferry of a piston single, from Calgary to London Ontario. We had to shoot an ILS approach in scuddy weather, at night and I was hooked, and decided to get my Com/IFR ticket.
But I was willing to start my flying on floats, which I did for a season..low pay but a fun way to build hours. Next lucky step, a job offer to fly from the Coast, into the Game Parks in Kenya. Fascinating flying , and a great opportunity to build up hours. Also some DC-3 flying out of Nairobi Wilson.
Then a tier one Airline, back in North America, invited me in for an Interview when I was 28. . I ended up flying with this Airline for 32 years, and retired with a very good DB pension.
I never thought, or even planned that I would be able to follow this career path. But I took advantage of opportunities that arose, and was very lucky too.
First flying job. J3, no electrics. No radio .swing the prop
Last edited by Retired DC9 driver; 16th Oct 2019 at 04:02.
what does everyone think about 2040-2060
....FWIW my perspective on this is somewhat coloured by the fact 40 years ago some of the keener profs in the Computing Department at a certain University I attended were saying full blown AI was just around the corner...they were however smart enough to not say how far away that corner was..( yes, we did have computers "back in the day").
As for aviation: Some of the passenger aircraft rolling off the production line today that still be in service in 20-40 years time..there is no sign of a fully autonomous passenger aircraft getting anywhere near a production line in the next decade....and even when the AI is ironed out then as neville has mentioned there's all the regulatory and legal hurdles to negotiate.
The much bigger threat to the viability of the job for many is indeed the decline in T&Cs, it's all very well slipping the surly bonds of earth on a regular basis but it's quite nice to have time to watch your family grow up and you've still to pay the household bills......
There are those bots that can sit in a cockpit designed for humans and take over by learning themselves what to do.
Becoming a pilot today I consider safe. To abandon redundancy with only one or none pilot in commercial passenger aviation doesn't feel safe for the foreseeable future.
Strategically I'd add some engineering degree if possible and anything that will make you more valuable and useful to an airline.
I'd consider ATC to be more under threat long time.
Strategically I'd add some engineering degree if possible and anything that will make you more valuable and useful to an airline.
I'd consider ATC to be more under threat long time.
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When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
Aviation is a strange mixture. TCAS/ACAS, ADS-B, SSR are all based on the 1940's IFF. In 1985 Boeing developed FANS 1 and CPDLC and uploadable flight plans into FMCs. Although standard for transoceanic flight, CPDLC might be being used in en-route flight globally by 2040. Can anyone think of a communications system in normal use that is effectively the same as it was 40 years ago in the 1980's? Thanks to some mathematicians in the 1980's who felt formal proofs were required for DAL-A hardware such as FMCs, the current FMCs are based on architectures no more capable than the i286: Smart phones have far more processing power than the latest FMCs. There are grandfathered in concepts in the FMCs that can be traced back to the air traffic control concepts of the 1930's and similarly, the air traffic control concepts in use today have grandfathered in concepts from the 1930's and are not significantly different to those used in the 1960s. Some will say all this is due to the safety requirements - it is more extreme conservatism and this is 'good enough' why should we change this is the way we always did it. This cannot continue.
Autonomous aircraft of varying capability are already flying, some are using Machine Learning type AI, some are now capable of air-air refueling and aircraft carrier takeoff and landing. Hypersonic flight is already possible and just like populations in the 1950's would not have considered transcontinental and transoceanic flight in less than 15 hours or flight from Europe to Australia was for the rich with multiple hotel stays, the idea of flight from USA to Europe in 2 hours or USA to Australia in 4 hours being the norm is something that will 'never happen'.
So we have conservative aviation meet rapid entrepreneurial 'get to market fast' development with Silicon Valley and others pushing autonomous and near space flight. I think that in ~15 - 30 years' time there will be several disruptive innovative changes. However many of the current 'innovative' ideas will fall by the wayside.
Your question - I would recommend that young children get an initial education in the STEM subjects, "know your enemy" study AI, computing and telecommunications. Understand what computing Cloud services are and play with them (you may not realize it but you and I are using Cloud services now). Do the study at a university that has both STEM, engineering and flying courses there are several scattered around the US from Florida to the Dakotas. Students can graduate with ratings on twins and a 1st degree/masters in a STEM subject. This is the best of both worlds as someone said earlier students with a spread of expertise become far more employable.
Finally, children and students should look at learning in the way they look at learning a new video game - it should be fun and competitive.
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Personally I think the only thing to change in that time Frame will mainly be about T’s & C’s, gone will be the days that being a being a pilot is a well paid and respected job (some may argue it is today), and that it’ll be the equivalent of a supermarket store manager, or the like.
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The biggest enabler of our modern times is computing and telecommunications on a massive scale, even quantum computing is around the corner to take it to the next level. Underneath all this impressive information technology is the same old mundane, even ancient, things being constantly refined and done on a scale never seen before.
This has many parallels with aviation, as mentioned previously there has only been nothing but refinement for the last 50 years as the physical barriers for conventional flying have been reached (and restrained by political barriers e.g. flying over mach 1 over cities).
Not surprisingly the latest developments with conventional flying have been with computing and telecommunications (all the real action is now with space flying). Today, ATC can fly your plane, extrapolate this into the future and single pilot airliners will probably be the norm on well monitored routes. And one can imagine the role of that sole pilot would be to just monitor that all is well. Computers would have calculated the risk of single pilot ops with industry and government endorsing it.
Now there are people who may find that kind of thing exciting, it may even well be. Who hasn't enjoyed a morning flight when the air was still and crisp and the aircraft cut through the air like a hot knife in butter, then stood in cruise as stable as a block of flats. This could be the norm in future more capable aircraft regardless of the weather. The value in this future job my be looking out your office window (hard to believe with the current generation burying their heads in their phones) which for most of us is still a major motivator.
I would encourage your daughter to follow her passions because someone who is passionate about their job is often beneficial to themselves and those around them including the company they work for. I personally don't believe flying with SLF will ever become autonomous, I do believe there will be much more flying than there is now, and I believe pilot wages will not be any better than an entry level IT engineer.
This has many parallels with aviation, as mentioned previously there has only been nothing but refinement for the last 50 years as the physical barriers for conventional flying have been reached (and restrained by political barriers e.g. flying over mach 1 over cities).
Not surprisingly the latest developments with conventional flying have been with computing and telecommunications (all the real action is now with space flying). Today, ATC can fly your plane, extrapolate this into the future and single pilot airliners will probably be the norm on well monitored routes. And one can imagine the role of that sole pilot would be to just monitor that all is well. Computers would have calculated the risk of single pilot ops with industry and government endorsing it.
Now there are people who may find that kind of thing exciting, it may even well be. Who hasn't enjoyed a morning flight when the air was still and crisp and the aircraft cut through the air like a hot knife in butter, then stood in cruise as stable as a block of flats. This could be the norm in future more capable aircraft regardless of the weather. The value in this future job my be looking out your office window (hard to believe with the current generation burying their heads in their phones) which for most of us is still a major motivator.
I would encourage your daughter to follow her passions because someone who is passionate about their job is often beneficial to themselves and those around them including the company they work for. I personally don't believe flying with SLF will ever become autonomous, I do believe there will be much more flying than there is now, and I believe pilot wages will not be any better than an entry level IT engineer.
I do believe there will be much more flying than there is now, and I believe pilot wages will not be any better than an entry level IT engineer.
Check out Mike Rowe on that subject he has a fair bit to say about following your passion, albeit to encourage people to engage in trade/skilled jobs. I have seen plenty of people who's passion was aviation only to have it beaten out of them by the industry and end up quite bitter about it all.