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Scrapping of A380

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Scrapping of A380

Old 11th May 2019, 23:24
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut View Post
Customer demand was there.
At the time of cancellation, the A380F had exactly one order- a single aircraft for Emirates.
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Old 12th May 2019, 10:18
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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At what time? They had 27 orders from Emirates, FedEx, UPS and ILFC when Airbus decided to halt the freighter. Airbus stopped that version and converted orders or cancelled the existing orders.
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Old 12th May 2019, 16:29
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the 747-8F is still in production and the A380 is officially dead.
Actually, there are more A380's on order than 747-8F

Currently there are 65 A380 orders awaiting delivery, to Emirates and Al Nippon.

There are 23 747-8F orders awaiting delivery to UPS. (no passenger 747-8 orders)

Given current production rates, they will be shutting down the 747-8 line before the A380 line...

Last edited by Smythe; 12th May 2019 at 16:42.
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Old 12th May 2019, 16:37
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Most of the EK A380s are on operating leases. When they expire at the 10year point there will be either a very cheap follow on lease, a cheap buy or a scrapped aircraft. With 14 flights a day to the UK, a move to 777s would need about 4-5 more slots which are pretty hard to come by so maybe the story has a while to run yet.
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Old 12th May 2019, 18:08
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Originally Posted by Smythe View Post
.... they will be shutting down the 747-8 line before the A380 line...
Yep, 747 line will shut down after 50+ years and 1,500-plus built. A380 line will shut down in less than 20 years and fewer than 300 built.
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Old 12th May 2019, 18:18
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I suppose, but the comparable aircraft, the 747-8i sold 47 units. (Another Boeing reaction to an Airbus aircraft) As far as development money well spent, the 747-8i was a huge loss.

Not that it matters much, in reality, both are done.
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Old 12th May 2019, 18:56
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Originally Posted by Smythe View Post
Currently there are 65 A380 orders awaiting delivery, to Emirates and Al Nippon.
Notwithstanding what Wikipedia might say, nobody seriously expects another 65 A380s to be built in remaining two years before the line closes.

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Old 12th May 2019, 19:14
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Agreed
I'd be surprised if they build more than another 20.
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Old 13th May 2019, 00:23
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Originally Posted by Smythe View Post
Actually, there are more A380's on order than 747-8F

Currently there are 65 A380 orders awaiting delivery, to Emirates and Al Nippon.

There are 23 747-8F orders awaiting delivery to UPS. (no passenger 747-8 orders)

Given current production rates, they will be shutting down the 747-8 line before the A380 line...
Do try to keep up - Airbus has ALREADY announced the A380 line will close in 2021, and most of those 65 orders you quote have been officially cancelled - outstanding orders for the A380 currently stand at about a dozen.
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Old 13th May 2019, 01:44
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Considering the number of 747-8s I see in my wilderness area but on the flight path from Asia to the US prime air freight centers, is it likely the 747-8F will continue for a lengthy period at a relatively low rate. In other words is it likely the 747 will continue on well beyond the end of the A380 if only as a freighter? Aren't the advantages of the 747 over a 777 freighter significant for specific cargos? Not many can justify hiring the AN-225 but the 747 does seem to fill a niche unable to be filled by the 777. Certainly they won't go on like the C-47/DC-3 and 727-200 for which it appears nobody has a suitable replacement.
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Old 13th May 2019, 11:34
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Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut View Post
Not sure how right Boeing was. They developed the 747-8 believing in the big quad's future themselves.

Concerning the A380 as a freighter: FedEx and UPS had ordered (firm) factory build A380 freighters back then until Airbus cancelled that version during their electrical wiring "harness mess".
The 747-800 was a relatively low cost rehash of the 747-400. It probably will end up being profitable. Boeing itself forecast a poor market for large 4 engine aircraft and disputed airbuses projections for the market. For that reason they declined to develope a new aircraft for the market.

Last edited by Sailvi767; 16th May 2019 at 11:52.
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Old 13th May 2019, 11:58
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Without some 747 they could grow the 777 even more.
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Old 13th May 2019, 13:48
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Do try to keep up - Airbus has ALREADY announced the A380 line will close in 2021, and most of those 65 orders you quote have been officially cancelled - outstanding orders for the A380 currently stand at about a dozen.
really, is that necessary? At least, when there are no orders, Airbus does the smart thing and cancels production. Cant say the same for Boeing. (one a month keeps a line open? until 2021?)

I dont mind Emirates reducing A380 orders when they add 70 other orders...all told, Emirates probably would have kept ordering.

The 747 was nice to fly, until the A380 came out.
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Old 13th May 2019, 14:36
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Airbus does not have the numbers to get better fuel efficient engines ever.
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Old 13th May 2019, 14:45
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Originally Posted by Smythe View Post
really, is that necessary? At least, when there are no orders, Airbus does the smart thing and cancels production. Cant say the same for Boeing. (one a month keeps a line open? until 2021?)
Boeing is making money on each 747 produced, and will still be profitable even at one a month.

Airbus is losing money on each A380 produced (since last year), and will keep losing money until the line is shut down.

So who's smarter now, Boeing or Airbus?
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Old 13th May 2019, 15:05
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Aren't both A and B at 0.5/month right now?
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Old 13th May 2019, 18:34
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
Aren't both A and B at 0.5/month right now?
The 747-8F is at 0.5/month - not sure about the A380 (I seem to recall 2/3 per month but wouldn't put money on that).
At 0.5/month, the 747 isn't really a money maker, but it doesn't lose money either and it keeps the line open. Boeing still believes there is a solid market for the 747 Freighter - it's basically without competition in the over 100 ton freighter class and most of those 747F flying around today are getting seriously long in the tooth and will eventually need to be replaced. If they can get it back to 1/month (or higher) then the 747-8 becomes a solid money maker for Boeing.
As Sailvi notes, the 747-8 was a relatively inexpensive derivative of the 747-400 - Boeing didn't need to sell big numbers of the -8 to make money on it. I know what the business case numbers were for the 747-8 when it was launched. It's considered proprietary so I can't post them here, but suffice to say Boeing is easily on track to meet the business case assumptions.
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Old 13th May 2019, 22:30
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Considering the number of 747-8s I see in my wilderness area but on the flight path from Asia to the US prime air freight centers, is it likely the 747-8F will continue for a lengthy period at a relatively low rate.
Unless trans-Pacific trade flows slow down! But why would that happen?
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Old 14th May 2019, 01:58
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What size of reduction in fuel costs would give a380 a new lease of life?

Given global warming and calls in Australia to have its own fire fighting fleet, is life as a water bomber feasible? What is its payload if loaded with only, letís say, 4 hours of fuel?

mjb
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Old 14th May 2019, 02:27
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Originally Posted by mickjoebill View Post
What size of reduction in fuel costs would give a380 a new lease of life?

Given global warming and calls in Australia to have its own fire fighting fleet, is life as a water bomber feasible? What is its payload if loaded with only, letís say, 4 hours of fuel?

mjb
At a 30% reduction in fuel they would still be more thirsty than the new twins (depending on units used) in the medium range. So at a 25-35% reduction you would still only be replacing existing frames and not growing the market.

I would expect that a conversion to a water bomber would face the same structural issues as being a freighter. It also is limited by airports that could handle it 130 worldwide.
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