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Another A380 Woe?

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Another A380 Woe?

Old 8th Mar 2019, 20:20
  #241 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
There was a good book written about the economics of commercial aircraft development: 'The Sporty Game' by John Newhouse https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/...he_Sporty_Game
Let me second that - excellent book - I still have a copy laying around the house somewhere that I read maybe 30 years ago.

Am I the only one confused by the WTO reaction to all this? Boeing's big complaint all along was that "launch aid" meant that Airbus didn't bear the full risk of making bad decisions in aircraft development. WTO sort of agreed (although in a weasel worded way). Then the A380 implodes, Airbus says the launch add doesn't need to be paid back - pretty much proving that the Boeing complaint was valid, and the WTO reaction is - the program is dead, no further action required.
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Old 8th Mar 2019, 20:37
  #242 (permalink)  
 
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Cool

Originally Posted by tdracer View Post
Let me second that - excellent book - I still have a copy laying around the house somewhere that I read maybe 30 years ago.

Am I the only one confused by the WTO reaction to all this? Boeing's big complaint all along was that "launch aid" meant that Airbus didn't bear the full risk of making bad decisions in aircraft development. WTO sort of agreed (although in a weasel worded way). Then the A380 implodes, Airbus says the launch add doesn't need to be paid back - pretty much proving that the Boeing complaint was valid, and the WTO reaction is - the program is dead, no further action required.
I know of a few who were not confused however. Goes back to prior to WTO- AKA GATT. And in 1999-2000-2001 without Boeing help - SPEEA was pushing for airbus to be ' taxed " via Countervailing Duties Petition on the subsidy issue . Pushed by a well known Boeing Engineer who was AT GATT and had very high level connections in wash DC and White House at the time. Matter of fact, a petition had been completed per the required form and information/data needed and was scheduled to be delivered in Wash DC the 2nd week in September 2001 - ... and the rest is history !

Countervailing Duty Petition Against Airbus Industries

Whereas, for the past year, the SPEEA Legislative and Public Affairs (L&PA) Committee has been conducting an intensive investigation into whether Airbus Industries is selling their commercial airplanes below fair market prices, due to the subsidies it receives from EU governments.
Whereas, SPEEA, acting on behalf of its members, does have legal standing to file a petition with the International Trade Administration (ITA) within the Department of Commerce and United States International Trade Commission (USITC) requesting relief under U.S. countervailing duty law.
Whereas, the L&PA Committee has gathered data from various sources, including: annual reports from Boeing and the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company (EADS) which includes Airbus; statistical surveys conducted by the European Aerospace Industry (EAI); Boeing and Airbus websites; numerous press accounts; and informal discussions with industry representatives.
Whereas, the L&PA Committee's evaluation has determined there is sufficient data to support our belief that Airbus is selling aircraft into the U.S. market at 10 to 25 percent below cost (not including special leases or other financial arrangements), with the resultant negative impact of lost jobs in the American commercial aerospace workforce.
Whereas, the L&PA Committee has completed a draft of the petition requesting relief under U.S. countervailing duty law.
Whereas, the L&PA Committee has completed a position paper which recommends filing the petition.

MOTION:
It is moved that: THE SPEEA COUNCIL RECOMMENDS THE EXECUTIVE BOARD FILE A PETITION WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO INITIATE A COUNTERVAILING DUTY INVESTIGATION AGAINST AIRBUS INDUSTRIES.

Note : The above motion was passed on Aug 9th, 2001 , <<<————
And yes I do have a complete file of the petition, data, and subsequent misinformation and unprincipled activities by various people . .

Last edited by CONSO; 8th Mar 2019 at 21:35. Reason: addedSPEEA motion
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Old 8th Mar 2019, 21:41
  #243 (permalink)  
 
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Tax breaks, subsidies, launch aids, research funding and parallel military or black programs are not unheard of for commercial airliner programs globally.
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Old 8th Mar 2019, 21:52
  #244 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut View Post
Tax breaks, subsidies, launch aids, research funding and parallel military or black programs are not unheard of for commercial airliner programs globally.
True- but Boeing does not get forgiveable loans ... and in the 90's, productivity differences were significant re EU and US per AECMA stats



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Old 8th Mar 2019, 22:12
  #245 (permalink)  
 
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And a bit of " told ya so " oops double post of same document
Attached Files
File Type: pdf
A380-CPA.pdf (282.7 KB, 41 views)
File Type: pdf
A380-CPA.pdf (282.7 KB, 11 views)
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Old 8th Mar 2019, 22:22
  #246 (permalink)  
 
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But with limits as shown below-- page 99

Appendix 6: State Aid and Reimbursements
Under the terms of the bilateral agreement of 1992 between the U.S. and the European Union
concerning trade in large civil aircraft, the amounts of direct and indirect state support that either party can
provide to the development of a large transport aircraft are limited. Direct government support must not
exceed 33 per cent (33%) of the total development cost. Indirect support must not exceed three per cent
(3%) of the total annual revenues of the civil air transport manufacturing industry in a party’s domain. No
government support for production is permitted.
6.1: Direct Support
Development costs qualifying for direct support are defined under the Agreement to include:
· Preliminary design
· Engineering design
· Wind-tunnel, structural, system and laboratory tests
· Engineering simulations
· Equipment development work, except for work directly financed by equipment and engine
manufacturers
· Flight tests, including associated ground support, and analysis necessary to obtain certification
· Documentation required for certification
· The cost of manufacture of prototypes and test aircraft, including spares and such. Modifications
as may be necessary to obtain certification, less the estimated fair market value of flight aircraft
after refurbishment
· Jigs and tools, except machine tools, for use on specific programs
All direct support must be repaid. An amount equal to 25 per cent (25%) of the total development
cost (75% of direct support) must be recouped through royalty payments at an interest rate no less than the
cost of borrowing to the government; the remaining eight per cent (8%) (25% of direct support) with
royalties at that interest rate plus one per cent (cf. Exhibit 6-1). Both royalty streams must be repaid “within
no more than 17 years.”

from
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 02:10
  #247 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Chiefttp View Post

SOPS ,
the book was called
“The End of an Era”
”My story of the L10-11”
by James West
I purchased a kindle version on Amazon.
Thanks, I am going to get it.
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Old 17th Mar 2019, 15:21
  #248 (permalink)  
 
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Lufthansa ditching six A380s appears to have gone under the radar these past few days.

Bets on who might be next ?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael.../#2a2b18236b66
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Old 17th Mar 2019, 17:17
  #249 (permalink)  
 
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The article hints that BA may go back to look at taking some more,
meanwhile the only 380 secondhand that has been placed is the ex SQ Hi fly example.
The other 2 ex SQ 380's WFU may well end up as a spares source.

LH will send 6 back to AB out of their current 14 - plus the 5 ex MAS a/c are still orphaned...
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Old 17th Mar 2019, 19:14
  #250 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by evansb View Post
Some good news. Japan's ANA just ordered some A380's.

https://onemileatatime.com/ana-a380-order/
You do know that article is over 3 years old....
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Old 18th Mar 2019, 05:40
  #251 (permalink)  
 
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Wonder if LH are happy with their 747-8s? Wouldn’t it be a delicious irony if they stay in service after the 380’s have gone...
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Old 18th Mar 2019, 20:55
  #252 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by reverserunlocked View Post
Wonder if LH are happy with their 747-8s? Wouldn’t it be a delicious irony if they stay in service after the 380’s have gone...
Well, LH is a big cargo carrier in addition to PAX. And the 748 is a lot more capable a cargo handler than the A380. This flexibility of the 748 could be its savior.
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Old 18th Mar 2019, 22:38
  #253 (permalink)  
 
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Cargo Capacity

Originally Posted by SeenItAll View Post
Well, LH is a big cargo carrier in addition to PAX. And the 748 is a lot more capable a cargo handler than the A380. This flexibility of the 748 could be its savior.
Someone once did a study comparing cargo loads on an A380 v. other aircraft (all types) operating the exact same route by the same airline. The A380 carried 5 tons less cargo on average. By weight, that's equivalent to about 48 passengers, by my calculation.
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Old 19th Mar 2019, 12:43
  #254 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sk999 View Post
Someone once did a study comparing cargo loads on an A380 v. other aircraft (all types) operating the exact same route by the same airline. The A380 carried 5 tons less cargo on average. By weight, that's equivalent to about 48 passengers, by my calculation.
The issue with cargo on the A380 is the limited underwing space, not the weight. Recalculating it to number of passengers is thus pointless.
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Old 19th Mar 2019, 15:08
  #255 (permalink)  
 
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There is a school of thought that the 380’s time may still come as airports get more slot/ gate constrained and the only way forward is bigger aircraft. That was the thinking in the late 80s when the big bus was conceived yet still hasn’t really materialised even now.

Even if such a scenario arose, it would be too late for the 380, which will be out of production in a few short years with little to zero chance of a reprisal.

The 747-8 has a better chance, with its better economics, ability to operate to many more airports, cargo capacity and future resale value as a freighter. Only time will tell.

You could argue that a similar situation exists with the 757, which is much in demand as a freighter and lacks a direct replacement on many of the missions it currently undertakes. Only the thirsty engines and physical age of the airframes are sending them off into the sunset.

If somehow there had been enough business to keep the line open it may too have had a ‘second coming’.
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Old 19th Mar 2019, 15:11
  #256 (permalink)  
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I still fail to understand why they killed off the 757
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Old 19th Mar 2019, 15:55
  #257 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SOPS View Post
I still fail to understand why they killed off the 757
Possibly connected with the fact that hardly anyone wanted to buy them any more.

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Old 19th Mar 2019, 16:44
  #258 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Possibly connected with the fact that hardly anyone wanted to buy them any more.
The airlines all went for the cheap 737-800/900 and now the MAX, plus the A320/321 family - none of which could really stand in as a 757 follow on act.

But now the CFM Leap-1A powered aircraft is equipped with a one-class 220-seat layout, providing a range of around 3,300nm.
Depending on a lower payload, Airbus says the A321LR is capable of longer-range operations of up to 4,000nm

The new rumoured A321LRX plans to be able to offer 4750-5000nm

Arkia just received the first A321NeoLR ACF featuring 220 seats in a single-class and to be deployed from TLV, saying it is the first narrow-body more cost efficient than the 757's it operated by over 20%.
Longer range holiday destinations from TLV are possible with the aircraft like Zanzibar Mombasa Maldives Colombo and Seychelles.(at 200 seats then MRU is within range)

So is the first real 757 replacement ?

Back in the day the charter fit 757 could manage LGW to BAH or BGR with 220 pax non stop.

Ok sorry for the OT wander

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Old 19th Mar 2019, 19:03
  #259 (permalink)  
 
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The fate of the A380 and the possible demand for it in the future once it has gone out of production reminds me also of some cars, which are boxy, unfashionable and didn't sell well when new. However, the market suddenly woke up to their facilities and the second hand values remain stable, far outstripping the values of more mainstream cars of a similar age. Such cars include the NIssan Cube, Honda FR-V, Daihatsu Sirion (note all Japanese) which maintain some form of cult following. For people of limited means, these are reliable, spacious family cars good for dragging the famly around.

It would be more than fascinating if the A380 followed the example of these cars and it is found that airlines from countries with high and dense populations suddenly find a route between city pairs that a full economy seating plan makes economic sense to operate. Bit of a change from the showers and suites of the sandpit airlines.
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Old 19th Mar 2019, 21:02
  #260 (permalink)  
 
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It’s an interesting idea, but it’s hard to see the 380 ending up schlepping around Africa or parts of Asia like you see old 747s, Mad Dogs and 737s doing now. I just think it’s too complex and technical to support for those kinds of missions.

In the next year or two you’ll see AF and LH sending some of theirs back. Be interesting to see what fate awaits.
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