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Irish airspace and Brexit

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Old 21st Jul 2018, 22:18
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by infrequentflyer789
I have not seen the threat on video but quoted in multiple media sources including Irish press sources as “If they want their planes to fly over our skies, they would need to take that into account,” (and more).

Flying over right (first freedom) is covered by IASTA which both the UK and Ireland signed decades before the EU even existed, it has nothing to do with EU membership or hard or soft Brexit. That is a fact. Stating that the UK must re-negotiate various agreements, including Open Skies, in the event of Brexit is also a fact. Stating "...If they want their planes to fly over our skies ..." has no basis in fact unless Ireland intends to leave IASTA, it is not a threat, it is simply b***ocks.
Decades before? Are you sure about that?

And whatever history of IASTA how has it been amended between 1973 and now while both UK and Ireland have been in EU?

Leaving the EU is not something any nation has done before; we're beating a track through virgin territory.

Consequences are unknown.
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Old 21st Jul 2018, 23:06
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Caravaggio
How many European airlines have enough fat in their balance sheets to tolerate the excommunication of a post Brexit UK.
....
Fair point, but then look at the timetables of your typical British based airline and the European airlines, look at the destination pairs/route network and ask yourself whose balance sheet would be effected the most rapidly: the likes of Lufthansa/Air France or the likes of BA?
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 00:19
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Originally Posted by wiggy


Fair point, but then look at the timetables of your typical British based airline and the European airlines, look at the destination pairs/route network and ask yourself whose balance sheet would be effected the most rapidly: the likes of Lufthansa/Air France or the likes of BA?
Would BA be that affected as they are basically now a Spanish Airline?. In fact I believe the only predominately British Airline is now Jet 2, even Easyjet is arguable depending on where Stelios declares himself resident.

Apart from the timetables you also have to look at the investment, for example Lufthansa has around $1bn worth of value tied up in its LHR slots - I'm not sure they would be that keen on seeing that flushed away by politicians playing games in Brussels.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 03:21
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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All EASA licenses issued by the UK CAA would no longer be valid and recognised anywhere world wide with the
That is not a given at this point. You are assuming that to be the case. If a licence was correctly and legally issued it does not have to stop having an effect because the UK leaves the EU. A simple stroke of the pen makes it valid until replaced by another licence. You guys seem to be enjoying and talking up the prospect of Aviation Armageddon come March 2019. There are too many vested interests to allow that to happen. Yes it is potentially messy but it will be sorted.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 05:58
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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A “fact check” with alternative facts.

As per the Chicago Convention, aircraft are permitted overflight over any signatory’s territory. It’s the landing part that is the issue.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 08:10
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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If you want a pretty decent overview of the state-of-play that doesn't come from some journo hack (did someone really quote an order-order article? really? unbelievable) then this is quite good: https://www.gbaa.de/fileadmin/pdf/20...s_Aviation.pdf

Disclaimer: It's from the Germans, so no doubt whichever highly intelligent individual liked order-order will say this is automatically wrong as it's not British
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 08:16
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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You guys seem to be enjoying and talking up the prospect of Aviation Armageddon come March 2019.
Not Armageddon (and I don't read that too many folk are suggesting it). But airlines in general are not known for their financial robustness and things won't have to get too "messy" for casualties to occur. The EU and UK have locked themselves into a very obvious and unsubtle game of chicken. The EU won't cave on any of their red lines until the last possible minute and TM knows if she has to surrender one more of hers, she is toast and the UK constitutional fall out will guarantee a hard brexit, unless a rapid delay can be negotiated by whoever ends up with the reins in the UK. All of this means uncertainty will continue until the 11th hour and by then damage will have started to occur in this industry irrespective of brexit outcomes. How much damage and what the consequences are for individual airlines (and their crews) remains to be seen...no one knows the answer to that, what is weird is that quite a few people seem to think they do???

PS

Nemrytter, thanks for the link. That's bed-time reading for later...nice to have something substantial on this for once.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 08:43
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Leaving the EU was never going to be easy despite what the pro leave camp claimed, their optimism was predicated on the assumption that mutual interest rather than politics would be the key driver.

At it’s core the EU must ensure that the UK is significantly worse off out side compared with remaining in the bloc, even a trade deal must structured in such a way that the UK will trade money,no say and continued freedom of movement in order to have so called frictionless borders despite the fact that there is already considerable friction as non Schengen members.

Lets be absolutely clear it is in everyone’s interest that the UK remains in the EU apart from of course the 17.4m people who voted leave.

with good will on both sides they could both have their cake and eat it, but that isn’t going to happen, the Chequers agreement will not be agreed by the EU, more concessions will be needed to the point that coming out will indeed be pointless, this will force the PM out and under the fixed term parliament act the Conservatives will have 14 days to appoint a new leader or hand over to Jermery Corbyn ( good luck with that)

Leo at the Irish tes shop is being played for a fool by the EU commission, they think the good Friday agreement is the silver bullet to kill Brexit, but there are far more Irish registered aircraft than any other nation outside of the USA so this doesn’t just impact Aer Lingus or Ryanair, Norwegian EI fleet is the bulk ( but easily moved to exsisting AOC in Norway or the UK) SAS and a whole host of other airlines are flying around on EI plates ( must be a good deal?)

it could either way but but sooner or later the big money airlines are going to instruct their national Governments to instruct the commission to do a deal, otherwise some will go bust or need bail outs
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 09:11
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Originally Posted by EIFFS
...

Lets be absolutely clear it is in everyone’s interest that the UK remains in the EU apart from of course the 17.4m people who voted leave.

...
An extremely 'EU-centric' view of democracy!!!

Originally Posted by EIFFS
...

Leo at the Irish tes shop is being played for a fool by the EU commission ...
Without a single doubt on that one. With this statement of his he has proven to all and sundry that he does not have a clue what he is talking about. He should be sidelined from now on.

Originally Posted by EIFFS
... but sooner or later the big money airlines are going to instruct their national Governments to instruct the commission to do a deal, otherwise some will go bust or need bail outs
Spot on. But not just the airlines, every other big money business throughout Europe will be doing the same. Those clowns in that Commission (Kommissariat?) are too dangerous to be entrusted with the future livelihoods of millions and millions of Europeans.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 09:32
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Airbanda
Decades before? Are you sure about that?
Well, I am assuming ICAO's records are correct because I wasn't around back then. From https://www.icao.int/secretariat/leg...Transit_EN.pdf

Ireland 15 November 1957
...
United Kingdom 31 May 1945
I am sure (because I was around then) that those dates are decades before the EU existed, as the EU was created with Maastricht treaty in the 90's.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 09:47
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Bloody irish should stop this nonsense and row in behind Theresa, were stronger together.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 09:48
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Symantics, and you know it. The EU simply had a different name before 1993. This debate would be much better if people presented facts rather than whatever distorted opinion they have.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 10:24
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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MR172. We are indeed stronger together, and the best solution for that is for the UK to remain in the EU.
Why you expect the Irish to jump off a cliff with us and wreck their economy too is beyond me.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 10:27
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Oh and referring to our neighbours as "bloody Irish" is a superb tactic. I'm sure they'll fall into line in response to that sort of language. That's very much winning hearts and minds isn't it.
Or perhaps that sort of ugly attitude is why they chose to break from the UK....,
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 10:29
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Originally Posted by MR172
Bloody irish should stop this nonsense and row in behind Theresa, were stronger together.
You have a perverse sense of humour; A divided island, 800 years of oppression, famine in one of the most fertile places on the face of the planet, impoverishment and disenfranchisement. England is not Ireland's bosom buddy. If England wants to get all Isolationist and Xenophobic they can do it in the conventional fashion i.e. on their own by their lonesome but as the saying goes "Misery loves company" and they've dragged an unwilling Scotland and Northern Ireland in to their predicament already.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 10:36
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It may have escaped some people's notice but Ireland did not flourish under the English Hegemony.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 10:37
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Originally Posted by ELondonPax
MR172. We are indeed stronger together, and the best solution for that is for the UK to remain in the EU.
Why you expect the Irish to jump off a cliff with us and wreck their economy too is beyond me.
especially when their current prosperity, after centuries of being ignored, has everything to do with them being in the EU
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 10:46
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I'm Irish guys, I was being sarcastic in the vain of Jacob, Boris and some people on this forum.

Hopefully it'll all work out
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 10:50
  #59 (permalink)  
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Diple- the Journal fact check is also bollocks and wrong.

The Taioseach as said spoke in reference to the Single European Sky programme which is specifically concerned with helping rationalise ATC control over the EU, Norway and Switzerland under Eurocontrol. Note that neither Norway or Switzerland are in the EU and EUROCONTROL is not an EU body. UK control over the Shanwick area is delegated to the UK by ICAO - not the EU.

The programme has nothing to do with overflight rights - and leaving the EU will in no way affect the control of air traffic over the UK FIR and Shanwick Oceanic Area or permit Eire or the EU to anyway limit UK overflight rights.

The Taoiseach made a threat based upon a total misunderstanding of how international air traffic and ATC is legislated and controlled, as opposed to EU licensing and landing rights under Open Skies etc - and the Journal is equally as confused.
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Old 22nd Jul 2018, 11:09
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Diple- the Journal fact check is also bollocks and wrong.

The Taioseach as said spoke in reference to the Single European Sky programme which is specifically concerned with helping rationalise ATC control over the EU, Norway and Switzerland under Eurocontrol. Note that neither Norway or Switzerland are in the EU and EUROCONTROL is not an EU body. UK control over the Shanwick area is delegated to the UK by ICAO - not the EU.

The programme has nothing to do with overflight rights - and leaving the EU will in no way affect the control of air traffic over the UK FIR and Shanwick Oceanic Area or permit Eire or the EU to anyway limit UK overflight rights.

The Taoiseach made a threat based upon a total misunderstanding of how international air traffic and ATC is legislated and controlled, as opposed to EU licensing and landing rights under Open Skies etc - and the Journal is equally as confused.
That is not the case. Without the co-operation of the E.U. states the ability to fly through Irish Airspace is not to be taken for granted as Countries in other parts of the world are
Look, you can be as overbearing as you want and dismiss what he says as "bollocks" but here is another report where the Irish Aviation Authority is of the opinion that overflight rights need to be negotiated; https://www.irishexaminer.com/irelan...it-472940.html
The advice that the Taoiseach has received is that overflight rights will have to be negotiated so (I now transition to capital letters) HE IS NOT ISSUING THREATS, HE IS STATING HIS UNDERSTANDING OF FACTS and his understanding of facts is commonly held by others.

The Irish Government are not the bad guys here despite how the British media and Brexiteers wish to portray them and they are not the reason why the English and the other elements of the UK are heading towards a very hard painful hard exit.
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